Oh my my my. I’m felling high. My voice is gone but I’m not alone. Too much “he ain’t real”. The world keeps turnin’. Oh what a day. What a day. What a day. Hits and homers manifest. With every passing game. If my belief were my wealth. Then I would be filthy rich. If I were made in his image. Then I’d be one sexy dude. Most analysts do not believe. Cuz they fear regression coming. Oh on and on and on and on. The hits keep coming like the morning dew. Whew on and on and on and on. All night until the break of dawn. I go on and on and on and on. The hits keep coming like the morning dew. Ooo on and on and on and on. God damn it. Imma sing his song.
I usually don’t like to write up a player more than once in a season but sometimes the universe demands it. Back on April 15th, I wrote up Akil Baddoo because he had produced three home runs, nine RBI, and one stolen base in 21 plate appearances. I thought that pitchers were going to find weaknesses and exploit it, especially since the plate discipline numbers weren’t great.
Well, from April 15th in May 30th, the slash was .190/.316/.354 WITH a .341 BABIP. The walk rate was 15.8% but the strikeout rate ballooned to 40%. Yuck.
My final verdict after writing that April piece was that Baddoo was a bear with horns. In the short term, he was going to come down from the lofty early-season levels but that, eventually, he would figure things out and be a viable fantasy option. There were definitely things I liked about his approach that gave me optimism.
Well, since June 1st, the slash is .328/.423/.426. It’s been fueled by a .408 BABIP and the ISO has tanked to .098 but the walk rate has maintained at 14.1% while the strikeout rate has plummeted to 16.9%. That is the key. While the power has decreased, the stolen base prowess has remained as he’s stolen four bases in each of the two periods.
Let’s dig in to see if we can find anything illuminating and if this newfound success is real.
The Statcast data show that he’s been barreling fewer pitches and not hitting the ball as hard. Perhaps toning down the swing and not going for the fences as much? A more mature and refined approach?
The batted ball data may support that. The line drive rate has spiked from 14.3% to 26.5%. As a result, fewer ground balls and fly balls. He started going oppo less but went up the middle more often. Interestingly, the hard-hit rate increased from 28.6% to 34.7%.
It is in the plate discipline numbers where things are really illuminated. The chase rate has gone from 26.1% to 20.9%. He started swinging at more pitches in the zone so he was more selective which shows maturity. The contact rate in the zone went from 65% to 85.9%! Wowzers. The overall contact rate went from 61.2% to 79.5%. But it’s the swinging strike rate that really gets me aroused. It went from 16.9% to 9.4%. Ooooohhhhh, on and on and on and on……
10.3% of ESPN leagues have added Baddoo over the last week yet his overall roster percentage is only 25.5%. He’s batted leadoff in the last five games he’s started. The walk rate and stolen bases have always been there but the decrease in strikeout rate and swinging-strike rate are super positive. He’s waiting for his pitch and being aggressive. It’s only a matter of time before the home runs start popping up.
VERDICT
