What others on Razzball have said about Adley Rutschman before I get to my thoughts: Here’s a quote from Prospect Hobbs’s piece on who he thinks will be the 2023 All-Stars at each position, “Adley Rutschman takes the cake at the catcher position for the 2023 All-Star Team because I honestly do expect him to be the best catcher in the game two-plus years from now. Rutschman slashed .254/.351/.423 with four homers (13 XHB), 26 RBI, 19 runs and one steal in his first 154 professional plate appearances in 2019 which he split across rookie-level, Low-A and Class-A. One steal. Damn that’s sexy. What’s sexier is the 27-to-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio seen in his first taste of the minors, translating to a 17.4 K% and 12.9 BB%. Rutsch-ell Crowe, as I like to call him, came out of college with a 60-grade hit tool and 60-power, so the sky is the limit here offensively from a positional perspective. Don’t expect Realmuto-esque steals with the 40-grade legs and one steal in 155 pro plate appearances, but he’s at the position to stay (true catcher) and could suck a whole lot less than what we’ve become accustomed to at the position from a fantasy perspective. Speaking of sucking, Grey sucks.” What the hell, my dude! This year in 123 games, Adley Rutschman went 23/3/.285 in 452 ABs. In Triple-A, the numbers were bolstered by a .364 BABIP, but were 5/2 in 157 ABs, and a slash of .312/.405/.490 with a 13% walk rate and 17.8% strikeout rate. Honestly, it’s criminal he hasn’t debuted yet for the Orioles. So, what can we expect from Adley Rutschman for 2022 fantasy baseball?
Here’s Adley Rutschman from both sides of the plate (not simultaneously — though, Ohtani’s made anything possible):
Adley Rutschman with a MOONSHOT pic.twitter.com/I4VLxoHzea
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 6, 2021
And lefty:
Lucky No. 13 for Adley Rutschman! pic.twitter.com/aSloL9QuoW
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 22, 2021
Truly incredible on the lefty homer, since it looks like that minor league stadium didn’t want to pay for lights.
“Hey, you think electric is a bill we need to pay?”
“No, this is the minor leagues, not Caesar’s Palace!”
So, Adley Rutschman is tough to predict for fantasy. Not because I’ve suddenly went dumb-dumb. Me is no dumb-dumb. I’m a smart-smart. The problem is so many people who look at prospects look at them from a real world angle. Catchers, as you know, are very valuable real world assets. You wanna light a gooseberry on fire under a baseball guy, then tell them some catcher is also athletic. Hoo-boy, that makes baseball people horny! It’s why someone will draft Salvador Perez in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts this year, and why they did it past years with guys like Posey and Mauer, and remember what people were saying about Matt Wieters at one point? Keith Law compared him to Yogi Berra. Catchers make baseball people daffy.
Fantasy is cold hard math and the cold hard math tells me Rutschman should be a 25/.280 hitter. That’s valuable. Will Smith was also supposed to do that for two years prior to doing it (minus the average) this year. Yes, Adley should be better than Will Smith, but I’m just saying catchers take a long time to mature. Most players are promoted, and they simply need to worry about hitting, fielding and putting on their pants. Catchers need to worry about handling a pitching staff. I hear what you’re saying. Hardy-har, yes, the Orioles have a pitching staff. Sorta. For 2022, I’ll give Adley Rutschman projections of 51/17/63/.274/1 in 364 ABs with a chance for more if he breaks camp with the Orioles. For a catcher, those are actually decent projections, around top seven catcher numbers right off the bat, literally.
