I could open today’s post by telling you it’s the last day of games before the All-Star break. I could go on a long diatribe about how this is the last time you can play DraftKings for 4 whole days. But what’s the point? You know this, I know this. You’re already being inundated with mid season lists and awards and such. So instead lets talk about today’s games and how to get the most out of your lineup. Days like today are not easy. First you’re never sure who’s going to be in the lineup. With several teams sitting stars involved in the ASG. Second even the participants that do play today could be pulled from the game in the 6th inning. All of this adds to the madness. Maybe the best thing to do is just play your favorite teams utility guy. Unless your favorite team is so pathetic that your utility guy is your team’s all star. Ugh Red Sox. So enough with this introduction stuff lets talk about some choice plays. After all today’s the last day to get your fix in.
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Yovani Gallardo, SP: $7,100 – I could go the easy route today and tell you to start Max, Cueto, or Kluber, but what fun is that? My ultimate goal is to provide you with the good plays that aren’t obvious. If you’re anything like me, Gallardo isn’t obvious. The guy’s had a great first half and I still refuse to believe it. Well maybe it’s time to believe. Don’t get me wrong, he’s been a bit lucky with the ERA according to his FIP/xFIP and the K/9 is very meh, but the HR/9 is low and he faces a dreadful Padres lineup. The friars are in the bottom 5 in almost all categories vs RHP and aren’t much better as a road team. At a price of $7,100, Gallardo is the perfect GPP ace or second pitcher in a cash game lineup.
Andrew Heaney, SP: $7,500 – After passing two very difficult tests since being called up, Heaney faces a much friendlier opponent in the Seattle Mariners and the man dressed as Robinson Cano. Over those two starts, vs the Yankees at home and vs the Rockies at Coors, Heaney has averaged 23.4 points on DK. He has high K upside and the ability to get deep into games, so don’t be shocked if this is the cheapest you see Heaney for awhile.
Lance McCullers, SP: $7,700 – I just love Lance McCullers. I love his K rate, his old school delivery, his handsome chin. I also love strong coffee and strippers with Boston accents. What can I say, I like folksy sex workers. Anywho, McCullers faces a Tampa Bay lineup that struggles at home. Actually, the Rays don’t really hit anyone anywhere. One thing you might be surprised to hear about the Rays is that they strikeout at a 22% clip, the fifth highest rate in the majors. This is good news for Lance and his 9.41 K/9.
A.J. Pierzynski, C: $3,700 – Say what you will about this old bag of air, but he’s having a decent season and he faces a lower tiered pitcher in Colorado. At $3,700, he’s a little more than I like to spend on my catchers normally, but I think ole’ A.J. is a solid bet to play and collect some hits.
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $5,100 – Anytime I see Goldie facing a lefty I jump all over it. There is some caution with this pick though as there’s a chance he sits or exits early to get some rest. Over the last few weeks, Goldy has been on an absolute tear putting up multi-hit games and scoring double digits on DraftKings seemingly every other day.
Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS: $2,800 – After being scorching hot at the end of June and beginning of July the Emperor has cooled off considerably. He’s done pretty much nothing since Monday but at a price of $2,800, he provides a significant amount of upside at a punt play price. With a less than scary Chris Heston on the bump for the Giants, I don’t see how you don’t take a chance on Hernandez.
Miguel Sano, 3B: $3,900 – Through the super prospect’s first 10 big league games he’s hitting a cool .394. Though the average is high his power thus far has been a little underwhelming. I know it’s ten games, but still I want some fireworks Sano! After all this is a guy who’s ISO is in the 300’s over three levels of minor league ball the past few years. Well not to worry, DFS-heads, Shane Greene to the rescue! Everyone’s favorite pre-season sleeper has regressed terribly so far in 2015 and is now more synonymous with longballs than Larry David. I’m going to go out on a limb here and call Sano’s first multi-homer game today.
Carlos Correa, SS: $3,900 – Some really solid discounts on DraftKings today when it comes to the young guns. I’m more than happy to get Correa into my lineup anytime he faces a lefty, but it’s only magnified when he’s priced under $4,000. Through his first 50 plate apperances vs. LHP, the former top overall pick is hitting .333 with 4 homers and 1.027 OPS. When you factor in his batting average of .406 on the road vs lefties, you have a must start in all lineups today.
Mookie Betts, OF: $4,700 – If you’ve followed my road map so far then you’ll be able to start anybody you want in the outfield. My suggestion would be to start with the scorching hot Betts. Over his last 11 games Mookie is slashing .340/.373/.660 with a wOBA of .431 and a wRC+ of 178. He’s also scored 10 runs, clubbed 9 extra base hits, and is always a threat to steal. Betts faces Yankees righty Nate Eovaldi, a player allowing a 1.59 whip and a .333 batting average against to right handed batters away from the Stadium. Maybe it’s the Boston homer in me but I like the Red Sox bats in today’s rubber match at the Fens.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Pretty friendly weather situation across the board today as there’s only really one game with a chance of rain/snow/sleet/locusts and that’s the A’s – Indians affair at Progressive. It’s Cleveland after all so biblical plagues are totally in play.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Not a lot of overwhelming favorites today as the Sharks in Vegas are probably a little nervous with the uncertainty of lineups the day before the break. With that said the biggest favorite on the board is -220 for the Giants with the Twins at -145 and Pittsburgh at -130 behind them. The Indians are another favorite at -120, as are the Mets at -118. The lowest run totals are expected in the Reds – Marlins and in the A’s – Indians games at 6.5. The highest total, shockingly, is 10 in the Braves – Rockies match at Coors.
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