Every dynasty league has its own rules and roster system, so many of the top prospects in baseball are already snatched and rostered when they reach the majors. But that doesn’t take the fun out of seeing some of the top young players in the game make it to The Show, because for dynasty players, it means a past investment in a player could finally be paying off.
One of those top young players we have all been following is Joshua Baez of the St. Louis Cardinals.
Perhaps no prospect has raised their stock more than Baez this season. An athletic player who has shown great power potential, Baez put everything together this season and forced the Cardinals to promote him last week and insert him into the lineup.
Let’s take a look at Joshua Baez and why he is an up-and-coming dynasty player.
The Stats
| YEAR | LEVEL | G | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | RK | 23 | 18 | 2 | 8 | 5 | .158 | .305 | .303 |
| 2022 | RK | A | 32 | 15 | 4 | 21 | 10 | .267 | .385 | .485 |
| 2023 | A | 91 | 54 | 7 | 36 | 30 | .218 | .341 | .383 |
| 2024 | A | A+ | 86 | 35 | 11 | 41 | 29 | .246 | .335 | .408 |
| 2025 | A+ | AA | 117 | 78 | 20 | 79 | 54 | .287 | .384 | .500 |
| 2026 | AAA | 103 | 79 | 34 | 90 | 21 | .256 | .328 | .573 |
| 2026 | Cardinals | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | .160 | .267 | .520 |
Standing at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, Baez was selected by St. Louis in the second round of the 2021 draft and signed for an above slot bonus of $2.25 million. He got a taste of professional baseball in 2021 and then suffered a wrist injury in 2022 to derail much of that season.
Over the course of the 2023 and 2024 seasons, Joshua Baez struggled to break out. He showed tons of athletic ability, stealing a combined 59 bases those two seasons with 18 homers and 77 RBI in 177 games. But he also had a whopping 35% strikeout rate (though with an 11% walk rate). But Baez started to turn things around in 2025 as he slashed .287/.384/.500 with 20 homers, 79 RBI and 54 steals, joining Konnor Griffin as the only players in the minors to post a 20-50 season.
Even more impressive was the fact that his strikeout rate dropped to 21% while posting a 12% walk rate. Then came his amazing season at Triple-A this year, though with the gaudy numbers came a 29.5% strikeout rate.
- Power
The first thing people talk about when it comes to Baez is his power potential. And why not – the dude can crush the ball. At Triple-A this season, his average EV was 92 mph with a maximum EV of 115.4 mph. He had a 19.7% barrel percentage with a 50.9% hard hit rate.
In his major league debut against the Cubs all he did was smash three homers in his first three at-bats, that is one, two, and three – the first major leaguer to hit three bombs in his first three career at-bats. Of those three homers, one went to left, one to center, and one to right.
And Baez has a swing built to take advantage of his power. His ground ball rate down on the farm this season was 31% compared to a fly ball rate of 50%. In 2025 those numbers were 33% and 44%. The year before that – 31% and 49%.
- Hit
While there is a lot to love about Baez and his power, there is a lot of concern when it comes to actually hitting the ball. As I pointed out already, strikeouts have always been a concern. The massive amount of strikeouts have helped lead to a minor league slash line of .251/.349/.470. He has shown the ability to cut down on the strikeouts while maintaining his power. And he has been able to draw a lot of walks during his career, as shown by his 11% career walk rate in the minors.
His 2025 season shows what he can do when he cuts down on the strikeouts. If he can come close to that strikeout rate in the majors then he will have a very long and fruitful career. It is very early, but entering Thursday’s game he had a 28% strikeout rate and an alarming 38.6% chase rate.
- Speed
Despite his size, Joshua Baez is a heck of an athlete. In his 452 career minor league games, he swiped 149 bases while only being thrown out 23 times. He already has two steals with the Cardinals.
He gets good jumps on the bases, and if he can get on base enough, he should be a candidate to steal 15 to 20 bases every season.
The Results
The early returns for Joshua Baez perfectly sum up what makes him so enthralling yet someone to be careful with when it comes to superstar expectations. The power is real, and he should be a 30-plus homer player every year of his career. The speed is real. He likely won’t steal 50 bases in a season like he did down in the minors, but he should provide you those 15-to-20 steals per year. And the strikeouts are real.
If trying to make a quick comparison to a player like Baez, I look toward Oneil Cruz, a player with immense athleticism. Cruz has great power, but has yet to unleash a season in which he has hit more than 21 homers. He has amazing speed for a man his size, stealing 38 bases in 2025 and has 22 so far this season. But Cruz also strikes out a ton and has a career slash line of .238/.316/.434.
But if given the chance to have Cruz on your team, you’d take it. The same goes for Baez. His power-speed combination is too good to pass up because it comes with a lot of strikeouts. Will Baez ever become a Tier 1 outfielder, joining the best of the best? Probably not. But can he be in that group of really, really good fantasy players? Without question.
Thank You
Thanks for reading, and come back again next week.
