There are certain stretches of baseball that make you want to hold a player forever. The ball is finding the grass, the fantasy stats are piling up, and suddenly the guy who looked like a perfectly useful roster piece. That’s usually when I start getting nervous. I’m not looking for players who are simply lucky. Everyone gets lucky. What I’m looking for is a hitter whose current production has moved well beyond what the underlying skills suggest, particularly when the recent numbers are getting better while the quality of contact underneath them isn’t. If the market is going to pay me for what happened over the last month rather than what is most likely to happen over the next six weeks, I’m going to take the money. For this week’s Hitter Profiles, I went back through the full-season numbers and compared them directly with the last 30 days, looking at the actual production, expected statistics, batted-ball quality, and the underlying contact profile. I also wanted players who actually matter in fantasy leagues. These aren’t guys I’m telling you to dump because they are bad. Quite the opposite. They’re three hitters who have enough value right now that I think somebody else should be the one taking on the risk. And because I don’t particularly enjoy telling people to trade somebody without having an idea of what to do with the roster spot, I’ve included a cheaper alternative for each one.
Steven Kwan
Steven Kwan has been so good lately that selling him is going to sound a little crazy. After a frustrating first half, Kwan has turned into one of Cleveland’s best hitters, and the recent numbers are eye popping. Over the last 30 days, he is hitting .419/.495/.500 with a .440 wOBA, and the improvement isn’t limited to one or two games. Since the beginning of July, he has been one of the most productive hitters in baseball, which has prompted plenty of discussion about whether the version of Kwan we’ve seen for the last month is simply the player we should have expected all along.
There is a legitimate argument for that. Kwan’s full-season line is .268/.369/.331, with a .321 wOBA and .325 xwOBA, so this isn’t a player whose entire season has been propped up by good fortune. He has always been an excellent contact hitter with a terrific understanding of the strike zone, and the .275 full-season xBA says the batting average hasn’t been some giant fluke either. The problem is what happens when we isolate the last 30 days. That .419 average comes with a .348 xBA, while the .500 slugging percentage comes with a .423 xSLG. Those expected numbers are still good, which is why I don’t want to call this a fake breakout, but they’re nowhere near good enough to support what Kwan has actually done.
The contact numbers make me even more interested in selling. Kwan’s full-season Hard Hit rate is only 8.7%, and it has dropped to 6.6% over the last 30 days. His average exit velocity has barely moved, from 83.7 mph for the season to 85.8 mph recently, while his Barrel rate remains at zero. And then there’s the .467 BABIP over the last month. Kwan is good enough at making contact that I’m willing to give him more BABIP credit than I would a typical hitter, but there is a pretty big difference between saying that and believing a .467 BABIP is sustainable. I think Kwan has gotten better. I just don’t think he has gotten that much better. If somebody in your league looks at the .419 average and thinks they’ve finally got the .320 hitter we’ve been waiting for, I’d be interested in having that conversation.
The alternative: Ryan Waldschmidt
Ryan Waldschmidt makes sense here because the cost is dramatically different. He’s only 28% owned in CBS leagues, and while his own .333/.384/.485 line over the last 30 days comes with some regression risk, the underlying numbers are much closer to the actual production. His .333 average comes with a .279 xBA, while the .485 SLG comes with a .425 xSLG and the .378 wOBA comes with a .331 xwOBA. That’s still a gap, but we’re not looking at the enormous disconnect we see with Kwan. Waldschmidt has also been hitting the ball at 89.8 mph over the last month, giving us considerably more contact authority than Kwan.
The key here is cost. I’m not suggesting Waldschmidt is a better hitter than Kwan, and his .426 BABIP over the last month is another obvious warning sign. I’m suggesting that if Kwan’s manager may be valuing him based on the .419 average, I’d rather sell high and take a much cheaper player whose recent production has at least been accompanied by a reasonable expected profile. Waldschmidt doesn’t have to replace Kwan’s production to make this work. He just has to be good enough while the rest of the roster gets stronger somewhere else.
Caleb Durbin
Caleb Durbin is probably the player on this list that makes me the most nervous about selling because there is a legitimate story behind what he’s doing. Boston has given him a regular role, and he has responded with some huge moments. Thursday, Durbin went 3-for-5 with five RBI against Toronto, including a grand slam in the eighth inning that helped Boston snap a five-game losing streak. That’s exactly the sort of box score that makes a fantasy manager feel very good about a player they picked up earlier in the season.
The problem is that Durbin’s recent production has gotten substantially better without the underlying contact following along. For the season, he is hitting .249/.318/.399 with a .317 wOBA and .286 xwOBA. Over the last 30 days, that has jumped to .312/.393/.419, with a .363 wOBA. His xBA, however, has actually fallen from .235 for the season to .226 over the last 30 days. The same thing happens with his slugging percentage. His .419 SLG over the last month comes with a .280 xSLG, and the .363 wOBA is supported by only a .282 xwOBA. This isn’t what a breakout usually looks like underneath.
Then we get to the contact numbers, and this is where I really want to be careful about what we’re buying. Durbin’s full-season Hard Hit rate is already just 27%, but over the last 30 days it has dropped to 18.8%. His average exit velocity has gone from 83.8 mph to 80.3 mph, while his Barrel rate has remained almost nonexistent. At the same time, his recent BABIP has climbed to .355. None of this means Durbin hasn’t improved. He clearly has, and Boston’s continued use of him matters. But it does make it awfully difficult for me to look at a .312 average and believe the most likely outcome is that he keeps hitting like this. He’s 83% owned in CBS leagues, so we’re talking about a player with real market value. If another manager sees the recent performances and thinks Durbin has arrived, I’d rather be the one taking advantage of that optimism.
The alternative: Zack Gelof
The appeal with Zack Gelof is the skill set, not his 30-day sample. Gelof has only 259 plate appearances this season, but he has hit .280/.331/.502 with 13 home runs and eight stolen bases. His 89.1 mph average exit velocity, 41.7% Hard Hit rate, and 8.0% Barrel rate are dramatically more interesting than Durbin’s contact profile. Gelof’s .360 wOBA is ahead of his .302 xwOBA, so there is regression risk here too, but at least the foundation includes legitimate power and hard contact.
The injuries are actually part of the appeal. Gelof missed time with a right-hand contusion in June, returned July 4, then landed back on the injured list July 10 with a right-knee laceration. He has just returned to the Athletics lineup over the past week. But that is also why his price may be more reasonable than the underlying skill set suggests. At 66% CBS ownership, he isn’t a free waiver-wire replacement, but he is a very interesting player to pursue in a trade if Durbin’s manager is convinced the recent result is the real breakout.
Chandler Simpson
Chandler Simpson is a completely different animal because the thing that makes him valuable is absolutely real. He has already stolen 33 bases this season and has struck out in only 8.7% of his plate appearances. The Rays have gotten tremendous value from his ability to put the ball in play and run, and there is no reason to expect the speed to disappear. In fact, Simpson recently passed Jason Tyner for the longest homerless stretch in Rays history, reaching 797 plate appearances without a home run. That is a pretty remarkable way to establish exactly what kind of hitter we’re dealing with.
What I don’t want to buy, however, is the idea that Simpson is a .400 hitter. His full-season line is .307/.334/.365, with a .308 wOBA, .258 xBA, and .263 xwOBA. Over the last 30 days, he’s hitting an absurd .414/.409/.460. The expected numbers haven’t moved with him. His xBA is still only .262, his xSLG is .303, and his xwOBA is .262. The actual wOBA has jumped from .308 to .375 while the expected number has basically stayed exactly where it was. That’s not a subtle difference. The player underneath the results hasn’t suddenly transformed into a batting average lock-in.
The batted-ball numbers make this one especially difficult to ignore. Simpson’s full-season Hard Hit rate is just 13.3%, and it has fallen to 10.3% over the last 30 days. His average exit velocity is essentially unchanged, at 83.9 mph for the season and 83.7 mph recently, while his Barrel rate remains zero. Meanwhile, his BABIP has climbed to .424. Again, I’m not telling anyone to drop Simpson. If you need steals, there aren’t many players who can replace what he gives you. But that’s also why I want to see what the market will pay. Simpson is 77% owned in CBS leagues, and there are fantasy managers who are going to look at .414 average over the last month and see the batting average as part of the package. I see the speed as the real skill and the batting average as the part I’m willing to sell.
The alternative: Cole Carrigg
This is a trade target rather than a waiver-wire replacement. Cole Carrigg is 74% owned in CBS leagues, so he isn’t going to be sitting around in most leagues, but that also means there is a chance of getting him in a 1:1 deal. Carrigg is hitting .292/.375/.489 for the season with a .370 wOBA and .335 xwOBA, and his last 30 days have produced a .316/.400/.456 line with a .375 wOBA and .346 xwOBA.
The difference between Carrigg and Simpson is what really gets me interested. Carrigg’s .316 recent average comes with a .295 xBA, while Simpson’s .414 comes with a .262 xBA. Carrigg’s .375 wOBA is only 29 points above his .346 xwOBA; Simpson’s is 113 points above his .262 xwOBA. Carrigg is also making much better contact, with a 34.9% Hard Hit rate over the last month compared with Simpson’s 10.3%. You’re giving up a lot of stolen-base upside in this move, so I wouldn’t do it simply because Carrigg is a better hitter. But if Simpson’s manager values the recent batting average uptick as though it is a legitimate part of his skill set, this is the kind of 1:1 trade I’d be willing to explore.
