One Man’s Trash: See Ya, Seiya?

All I could think about when researching for this piece was…..

Maybe I’m just a huge Boyz II Men fan. I am, but I started tearing up a bit that a player I have loved so much may be done, kaput, finished, expired. Ok, hyperbole much? Well, I am Korean so the drama flows through my veins. That said, hitting a small white ball hurtling at 95 mph while piercing the air doesn’t get easier as one ages. Seiya Suzuki hasn’t been terrible but the start to this season hasn’t been great with some numbers at career-lows. Is this the beginning of the end?

Suzuki is 31 years old, 5-foot-11, 182 pounds and bats from the right side.

In 2021, Seiya Suzuki hit 38 home runs while stealing nine bases in 533 plate appearances with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp in Nippon Professional Baseball. The slash was .317/.433/.639 with a 16.3% walk rate, 16.5% strikeout rate and .322 ISO.

Suzuki parlayed that into a five-year, $85 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.

In his first MLB season, he slashed .262/.336/.433 with a 9.4% walk rate, 24.7% strikeout rate and .171 ISO. He finished with 14 home runs, 54 runs, 46 RBI and nine stolen bases in 446 plate appearances.

The next two seasons, Suzuki was extremely consistent:

Last season was a career-year with 32 home runs, 75 runs, and 103 RBI in 651 plate appearances. The BABIP came down to .282, which resulted in a .245 batting average. The walk rate remained at 10.9% while the strikeout rate was 25.2%. The ISO was .233. Suzuki made a concerted effort to hit more home runs as the launch angle increased 1.7 degrees from the prior season, while the pull rate went from 33.7% to 41.7%, the first time over 40% in MLB.

This season, the pull rate remains at 41.5% while the launch angle has increased from 17.9 degrees to 19.2 degrees. The BABIP is at .283 while the batting average sits at .235. The walk rate is 11.6% while the strikeout rate is 25.4%. The ISO, though, is a career-low .168, as is the average exit velocity of 88.6 mph.

Seiya Suzuki saw four seam fastballs 27.4% of the time last season and is seeing 27.1% this season, and he’s maintained the same level of proficiency against the pitch. Where things differ are against the curveball and changeups. Throughout his MLB career, he posted positive run values against both of those pitches. This season, he’s in the negatives.

Then I look at the 24% chase rate, which is good in a vacuum, but is 4% higher than the career norm. The infield fly rate is 12.5%, the first time over 9%, while the 6.6% barrel rate is the first time below 10%!

All of that information leads me to believe that Suzuki’s timing is off, but is it because he’s overcompensating to catch up to the heat, or is it just a natural getting-into-the-groove thing?

The bat speed of 72.8 mph isn’t far off from the 73.4 mph from last season, and he’s still only 31 years old. If Seiya Suzuki were in his mid-30s, then I’d put more credence on Father Time being undefeated. As it stands, I think he’s still just trying to figure out the timing and, once he figures it out, he’s going to start hitting bombs like we know he can.