Week 8 Fantasy Baseball Fact Or Fiction

This week is not the sexiest Fact or Fiction, but there are several names to consider rostering for the sake of your fantasy baseball team’s health.

I considered adding A.J. Ewing, but with the news of Luis Robert’s return delayed, his adds shot up. If Ewing is available in your leagues, he should not be. He will be a fantasy baseball staple for the next few years, at least.

Speaking of the Mets, has anyone heard from Francisco Lindor? Is this just a lost season? Are my best ball teams DOA? These are the issues.

1B/OF Luke Raley (SEA)

You cannot spell Luke Raley without RAKE. I would say Luke Rakey, but that sounds…wrong.

Anyways, Raley is on a tear in May. He has five home runs, eight runs, 15 RBI, and a .333/.438/.889 slashline. While facing White Sox and Astros pitching in this span has boosted his numbers, there is something to this recent surge. He has a .398 wOBA on the season backed by a .413 xwOBA!

Raley has cut his strikeout rate to a competitive 24.2% this month, while posting a .286 BABIP. Nevertheless, this is all against right-handed pitching. Raley has just four plate appearances against LHP and 122 against RHP.

He is hitting fifth in the Mariners’ order lately and could continue providing fantasy value with the protection around him.

The best thing the Mariners have done for their offense is place Cal Raleigh (oblique) on the IL to get right. If Raleigh returns to form and Raley’s bat stays warm at worst, there is a lot to like about the offense as a whole.

FACT (against RHP)

2B/3B/OF Zack Gelof (ATH)

Zack Gelof is looking much more like 2023 Zack Gelof than the 2024-2025 version. He has a 124 wRC+ this season, which is just under his 132 wRC+ as a rookie.

His overall profile of good power, questionable plate discipline, is a little odd for a primary middle infielder, but he makes it work. Gelof has five HR and two SB this season, with a .260 AVG. His 23.5% strikeout rate is a career-best, and the Athletics play him every day now.

Given Sacramento’s park factor, you would assume Gelof is only “back” because of his home field. However, he has a similar wRC+ at home and on the road. There may be some regression on the road due to his 29.3% K and .333 BABIP, but the same could be said (positively) at home. His .250 BABIP in Sacramento will likely improve in the coming weeks.

FACT

OF Henry Bolte (ATH)

The Athletics called up former second-round pick Henry Bolte this week and have played him regularly since. Bolte has now started four straight games in centerfield and is hitting in the middle of the order. This is a decent show of respect for the 22-year-old OF, who made significant strides in the minors this year.

Bolte’s profile is pretty volatile given his strikeout issues, but he did cut his K rate to 22% in 177 Triple-A PA in 2026. He has just one strikeout through three games played, with a three-game hitting streak going into Saturday. Bolte has been slightly young for his level (20 in Double-A and 21 in Triple-A), potentially exacerbating his strikeout problems.

There is a lot to dream about in Bolte’s upside. He stole 44 bases in 114 games last season and 46 in 123 games throughout 2024. Bolte has good power in his bat, yet he did not display that until his 12 HR through two months this year.

I want to be high on Bolte. He could be the good version of Brenton Doyle (2024), if not slightly better! However, his K rate could be an issue in the coming weeks. Also, if he is not hitting well by the time Jacob Wilson returns from IL, he will return to Triple-A. Take a shot on him in 12+ team leagues where speed is a need, but do not expect a league winner.

FACT (in the future)

SP Aaron Civale (ATH)

This is the last Athletics player, I promise! Aaron Civale is on a pitching heater. He has a 2.70 ERA in 46 2/3 IP, with three ER allowed in his past four starts.

Can we trust him now? Probably not. Even in his impressive four-game span, Civale’s peripherals are horrible. He has a 1.29 ERA backed by a 4.59 xERA and a 4.91 xFIP.

He is getting extremely lucky, despite pitching three of these four games in Sacramento (where most get unlucky). Furthermore, this is against weak competition in the Giants, Guardians, and Royals. The Orioles’ start in Baltimore would be impressive if he did not allow nine baserunners (3 BB) in five innings.

This follows a trend for Civale. His peripherals for the season are a full two runs above his ERA. The piper will come calling shortly.

FICTION

SP Kyle Leahy (STL)

The Cardinals are red hot and shirtless. If you have not been following their recent “tarps off” trend at games, I suggest looking up their social media account.

Kyle Leahy has been one of their hotter pitchers in recent weeks. He has allowed one run through 16 1/3 IP in his past three starts. Leahy started the season poorly with a 5.52 ERA through his first six starts. Is he a new man?

No. Leahy has nearly as many walks (9) as strikeouts (12) in these three starts. He is just getting really lucky on contact.This has been the case all season, as evidenced by his 5.99 xERA.

FICTION

SP Merrill Kelly (ARI)

Merrill Kelly began the season on IL, then gave up 21 runs in his first 19 IP through four starts. He walked 15 batters in this span, while striking out just 14. Also, his 9.95 ERA was backed by an even higher 11.63 xERA. I had never seen a number that high in a multi-game sample! It appeared that the game had left this 37-year-old SP.

Regardless, Kelly has just pitched 16 innings through his past two starts. He has allowed just two runs, nine strikeouts, and three walks in this span. Most impressively, one of these two starts was in Coors Field! Kelly may have just needed time to ramp up after an injury-shortened offseason.

The veteran may not be the version he was between 2022 and 2025, but he could be a fine back-end SP, who is better off as a streamer. With his next two starts coming against the lowly San Francisco Giants, taking a shot on Kelly could be worth it.

FACT (for at least the next two starts)

RP Caleb Kilian (SF)

Speaking of the Giants, they may have their closer (finally).

Caleb Kilian is “Wally Pipp”-ing the now demoted Ryan Walker. He has two of the Giants’ past two save conversions, with both coming in May. He has a 1.40 ERA this season, with a career-high 96.9 MPH average fastball.

Unfortunately, there are some issues under the hood. Kilian’s 8.9% K-BB is mediocre and is leading to a poor 4.68 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA. His 3.33 xERA is good, but recent outings have been unkind to his peripherals. Kilian is getting worse as the season progresses, and his leverage comes in higher-stakes scenarios.

Moreover, the Giants do not earn many save opportunities. This is a bigger issue when deciding to roster any closer.

Deeper leagues in need of any save chances should pick up Kilian, but if Erik Miller or Keaton Winn overtake him for the role late this season, do not be surprised.

FICTION