Outfield Breakouts And Are We Buying Into These Guys?

Welcome back! It’s May and 20% of the season or so is under our belts. As always, some players of varying quality have broken out early. It’s Fantasy Baseball, so you always have to try to roster first and ask questions later. So let’s look at a few Outfielder breakouts and try to answer to what extent these early numbers are real. The ultimate answer is always to ride anyone who’s hot until they cool down or lose their playing time.

Jose Caballero

.259, 4 HR, 15 runs, 12 RBI, 13 Steals

I have to admit I pretty much avoided Caballero in draft season, though I got the appeal. He figured to start for at least a month in a great lineup, is eligible everywhere for Fantasy, and he steals a ton of bases. I even thought there was a good chance he’d keep semi regular at bats even after Anthony Volpe returned. He’s a valuable real life baseball player who can obviously run, and he’s a plus fielder all over the place, including at Shortstop. I just did not think he at all resembled a good hitter, so he seemed like a one category guy. Albeit he’s really good at that category, as he’s led the AL in steals for the last two seasons, and he’s on top of the board this year. Caballero has a 25.8% career K%, which is really high for a guy who also has just an 84.2 career EV and 4.8% Barrel%. He has a career xBA of just .213, which he beats with a .232 avg. And it makes sense that a fast guy will keep beating his xBA. So far, so great, of course, for anyone who rostered him. Caballero has more homers and more steals than Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tatis Jr. combined, and his counting stats are fine.

While I have a shade of FOMO here, I still maintain Caballero is not a good hitter, or anything close. 

Well, Volpe’s rehab window ended, and the Yankees optioned him to AAA and will keep rolling out Caballero. And that does make sense! They could use his glove. But he’s still the same .230 hitter with very little power. If you roster him, enjoy the steals, but make plans to account for the hole he eventually will leave in every other category. It’s likely Volpe works his way back up, and Caballero moves back to a super utility role or perhaps a fill-in for some future injury. He likely maintains his PA’s, just not his offense.

Daniel Schneemann

.298, 4 HR, 12 Runs, 14 RBI, 2 Steals

I kind of feel like there’s a Schnee Week every season where he goes off for a bit, gets rostered in every deep league, then falls back into a meh strong side platoon guy. Like Caballero, he provides real life value as an excellent fielder all over the diamond. And he’s eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF, and perhaps even SS, depending on your league. 

Unlike Caballero, he actually can hit! He has a 10.9% Barrel% this year, and a 9.4% career mark, as well as an 89 EV. He does fan way too much with a 29.3% K% and a 36.3% Whiff% this year, that’s just 4th percentile. He’s 29, so he’s kind of a late-blooming prospect. But it’s encouraging that he’s now a bit more than a strong side option for the Guardians as he’s started against 3 of the last 4 lefties they’ve faced. 2nd base looks occupied now with Travis Bazzana up to the big club. But Schneeman has started in CF lately and also at 3B to give Jose Ramirez DH days.

That batting average will obviously fade. He has a .265 xBA, which would be great if he could hold it. But realistically, .250 from here on would be a nice number as even the best projection system pegs him at just .237. The power uptick looks a bit more real as he’s increased his bat speed from 70.9 to 71.5, and it has resulted in a 90.1 EV that’s 64th percentile. I would absolutely roster him in deep leagues and see where this goes.

Carlos Cortes

.387, 4 HR, 10 Runs, 13 RBI’s, 1 Steal

I’m a Mets fan, as I’m sure I mention every week, and have to admit I never heard of Cortes despite the fact that he lingered in the organization from 2018 to 2024, the last 3 years in AAA ball without a wRC+ above 99, an Avg. over .246 or more than 16 homers. Well, he went to the A’s system, and they uncorked something as he hit .322 last year with 17 homers in 314 PA’s, then .309 in 42 games in Sacramento with 4 homers.

A spot opened up in the A’s OH/DH mix with the injury to CF Desmond Clark, and Cortes has run with it. And it looks kind of real to the extent a guy breaking out at age 28 can look “real”. 

His plate skills are absolutely elite with an 9.5% BB% vs. an 8.3% K%. He did it in the minors last year at 13.1% BB% vs. 14.6% K%. He’s now combined it with pop as well. Look, he’s not going to hit .387, and he’s strictly a strong side platoon bat. And that’s not going to change as the A’s have kind of a crowded outfield. But I’d expect him to hold onto this role. Clark has a great glove in center, and he just shed his walking boot, but he’s a 59 wRC+ hitter in MLB with a 38.8% K%. Also, Lawrence Butler has a 53 wRC+, so he’s vulnerable as well.

Jeremiah Jackson

.259, 6 HR, 10 Runs, 24 RBI’s, 1 Steal

Yet another relatively unheralded late bloomer plays his way until regular PA’s. “Jerry” got the call last August when the Orioles emptied out the roster and he played really well, hitting .276 with 6 homers in 183 PA’s while covering 2B, 3B, and corner OF. But then the Birds reloaded this winter, and he looked blocked from anything but a bench and weak-side platoon role. Alas, an injury to Jackson Holiday opened up 2B, and Jackson has run with it.

I’m not really sure this one sticks. He has just a 3.8% BB% and 40.2% Chase rate (7th percentile), leading to an ugly .276 OBP. The power is kind of meh, and while he’s versatile enough to play all over, he’s not a particularly good fielder anywhere. For now, the Orioles need him as Holiday is taking forever to get back on the field. Even if/when Holliday returns, Jackson can move to 3B as Coby Mayo remains blah and there’s radio silence on Jordan Westburg’s rehab. But ultimately, Jackson profiles as a bench guy.