Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: “The Five Remembrances” And The ADP Dilemma

The Moment of Zen:

This week, I’ll get a bit more serious in my reflection. If soul searching isn’t what you came here for, feel free to skip right over it and get to the fantasy baseball advice.

When I was younger, I had a close relative who was in and out of recovery circles, so I got familiar with Alcoholics Anonymous meetings. During that time, I fell in love with the “Serenity Prayer,” which was a prayer used to close each meeting:

God grant me
the serenity to accept the things I cannot change
the courage to change the things I can
and the wisdom to know the difference.

What a beautiful sentiment. Now, admittedly, as a teenager, I was aware of others’ needs at pretty much the level one might expect from teens – which is oblivious. Yet, I was affected deeply by the simplicity of the request and the complex nuance of what was being asked. For many years, I considered the “Serenity Prayer” a major source of wisdom for me to follow, and I tried to use it as guidance when and where I could. 

Then, I walked into recovery rooms because I was the one who needed to be there. And at that moment, I realized that I had never once understood the meaning of that prayer the way I would need to now. As my recovery took hold and my life began to improve, it actually became clear I had never understood the prayer at all. At the risk of extreme understatement, recovery taught me a few things. Fortunately, my new insight on the prayer gave me even stronger guidance than before.

As part of my recovery process, I was introduced to Buddhist practice. As I became more knowledgeable about Buddhism and some of the many ways it could improve my life, I connected immediately with a similar sentiment often recited as part of practice. This recitation, called the “Five Remembrances,” intended to remind us of our impermanence and the need we had to learn acceptance. The beauty of the Remembrances struck me in much the same way “The Serenity Prayer” had. Here are each of the five: 

1. 1. I am of the nature to grow old. There is no way to escape growing old.
   2. I am of the nature to have ill health. There is no way to escape having ill health.
   3. I am of the nature to die. There is no way to escape death.
   4. All that is dear to me and everyone I love are of the nature to change. There is no way to escape being separated from them.
   5. My actions are my only true belongings. I cannot escape the consequences of my actions. My actions are the ground upon which I stand.

Because of where I was in my life at the time I was introduced to this wisdom, I was in a much better position to understand what I was being taught: 

I have control over very few things in my life. My limitations as a human are obstacles to my life and will continue to be so just as long as I have the benefit of being alive. But the one thing I can control, despite anything else around me – my actions. They are mine and mine alone. The consequences, on the other hand, weren’t necessarily something that would fit my neat expectations. And even when the effects of my actions went awry, veering away from my grand plan, the actions – and therefore the impact of those actions, intended or not – were mine alone. I had to take ownership of them.

Some might read the “Five Remembrances” and be saddened, even overwhelmed, by our mortality. By our limited ability to control what happens to us. For me, coming to terms with this was like achieving spiritual freedom. Yes, I had to come to terms with what little control I had – but now I could focus on the one thing I was able to impact directly and completely. And that was comforting beyond measure.

 

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

A few weeks ago, a reader suggested I talk about ADP, when to follow it, when to ignore it, and how to know one scenario from the other. In thinking about what I wanted to say about that topic, the “Five Remembrances” weighed heavily in my considerations.

If our actions are really the only thing we can directly impact with some level of certainty, so much of what occurs in life is just a thing that happens. Lamenting something that occurs doesn’t change the fact that it’s our reality. 

In facing the ADP dilemma, one way the Remembrances help me is by helping balance my expectations – and hopes – for how I will perform with an accepting look at how I am performing. Instead of stressing over what my opponents might do, I now understand to simply respond the best way I can to whatever they do. I no longer feel as compelled to freak out over what draft pick someone in my draft might snipe from me, or about how badly a player I liked might underperform my expectations. I can only really control how I respond to whatever ends up occurring. So, drafting has become a new, easier, much more enjoyable process as long as I stay focused on the is instead of the should be. The way I try to follow the is in drafts is fairly simple. Let’s call them

 

The Five Draft Remembrances:

1. I am of the ability and obligation to understand what ADP is.

Anyone who says ADP isn’t important is, I believe, either simplifying the game to a degree that is probably unhelpful for most of us to follow, or simply doesn’t understand what ADP does. As the central number published and staring at us whenever we enter a draft, ADP usually ends up driving decision-making, whether we like it or not. But it shouldn’t drive decisions as much as we tend to allow it to.

ADP is not a value; it is a price. You might be asking, “Wait, aren’t value and price the same thing?” Understandable question, but no, the two are not the same. Value is an indicator of what something is worth. In other words, it’s a measurement of how much the performance of a commodity, in this case a player, will impact the overall success of a product, project, business, game, or whatever else the commodity is a part of. In the case of a draft, value is how much a player’s stats are worth in the attempt to improve your team’s chances of winning your league.

Price is an indicator of how much someone will pay for a certain product or commodity. ADP as a price tells us at what price point previous drafters have been willing to pay for the commodities they want. It isn’t an instruction manual; it’s a source of information.

In my first ever draft through the NFBC site, a Draft Champions (DC), I clearly had no clue what I was doing. I thought I did, but I was just prey in that league. In my home leagues and even through other sites, when I drafted, I felt like I knew the player pool well. I could take players based on whether I thought they offered “value” at their ADP. I had enjoyed plenty of success in those other leagues, so I thought I was ready to step into deeper waters. 

The waters of a DC aren’t even all that deep relative to other higher-stakes drafts on the site, but the fantasy managers in that league were SOOOO much better than anyone I had played before. And I knew almost immediately that I was going to get crushed. My opponents ignored ADP and instead drafted players based on pure cost-benefit analysis. At whatever price point in the draft the managers thought the player made their teams better to a level that outweighed the opportunity cost of taking the pick at that point, that was the price they went with.

How many times in that draft did I go looking for a player I expected to be available, only to find that the player had been drafted multiple rounds prior to what ADP told me would happen? And each time, I panicked a bit and made a desperation pick instead of a good plan B option. It was quite the humbling learning experience to be sure. The best pick I ended up making in that draft – maybe the only good pick – was when I took a young Braves catcher by the name of William Contreras a couple of rounds earlier than his ADP. Why did I take him? Because I had watched him play, and I liked his bat a lot. I didn’t know how much playing time he would get that year. But after getting my ego served to me in pieces for the first 40 rounds of that DC, I decided to just go for him because I believed in him, not because of the established price. Contreras would go on to get fairly consistent playing time after the ASB and was the main reason I didn’t finish last place in that league. Lesson learned.

 

2. I am of the ability to prepare for outcomes even if I cannot control them. 

So how do we know when to use ADP as a guide vs. when to ignore it?

Well, I would say we should never ignore it; take the price information it gives. But when I do well in my leagues, it’s because I’m prepared with my assessments of the players, based on the value that player has in the specific league or game type I’m playing. 

Just about any projection system out there offers an auction value for players based on the system’s projections. One of Razzball’s most popular products is the Player Rater, an incredibly valuable tool for establishing not only what stats a given player might provide, but how valuable those stats would be in the context of a standard league. The Player Rater is an excellent place to start when trying to establish a player’s value instead of his price.

But don’t stop there. Different types of fantasy games emphasize skills at different weights. In my experience, a 15-team NFBC league’s scoring puts more emphasis on offensive performance than pitching. Yet, in a 12-team standard NFBC league, starting pitching is more valuable. At first, this was confusing to me because both leagues collect the exact same stats and count them in exactly the same ways. But the context of the two league types ends up making certain skills harder to acquire – and therefore more valuable – than other skills. Some leagues put an inordinate amount of weight on saves. Some leagues have save categories but make the stat a mostly wasted commodity. You can get good relievers, but winning saves probably costs you chances to win other categories in those leagues, so don’t worry about closers until your roster requirements dictate.

The only way you can really know what your league values is to see what your league values. Obvious, right? What I mean is: Look at the history of your given league. How do certain stats stack up against others in terms of ease of acquisition? Use that assessment to establish your own value for that player, and draft based on that value. 

If what I suggest in the previous paragraph seems impossible, too hard to do, I get it. To help with that, I highly recommend reading Larry Schechter’s Winning Fantasy Baseball. His chapter 6, “Value Formulas,” completely changed how I approach my leagues. Once you know the true value of a player relative to your league context, then you can figure out at what point in the draft you’ll have to click his name in order to make sure you get your guy. Not so early that you could have gotten more benefit from drafting a different player at that point, not so late that you don’t get your guy who is going to change the face of your team. Only you decide that, and it comes from knowing your own values.

 

3. I am of the nature to control my own actions, but not what I cannot control. I do have the ability and obligation to determine the difference.

I can’t control which players my opponents pick. I can’t dictate the exact position I draft from. I can’t control whether a player is injured right after I draft him. I can’t control how well my opponents accumulate stats.

You probably get the picture. There are very few things in a draft we control, and the other parts of a draft will happen however they happen. I’ve honestly gotten to the point I barely pay attention to what my leaguemates are doing in their drafts. Their team is not my team. If they take “my guy,” then they take “my guy.” 

I can control whom I draft when my turn comes up. I can control how much preparation I’ve put in. I can control whether I know the player’s value relative to my league’s historical standings. I can control how I structure my roster. I can control how much emphasis I put on certain skills.

Control the little things, and then respond as needed to what happens outside your control.

 

4. I am of the ability to dictate draft position and its impact on other leaguemates.

I hear lots of really good fantasy players talk about how much they like drafting from the middle of a draft. If they’re in a 12-team, they want to pick somewhere 5th-8th or in a 15-team somewhere 6th-9th. The theory is, in a middle spot, the draft “comes to” them, they can keep from “missing out on runs” when a certain position dries up in a hurry. Those things are true, and I completely respect that they feel more comfortable drafting from that point. More power to them.

I, on the other hand, would much prefer drafting from the turn. I feel like I have more control over my draft if I can make back-to-back picks as I can plan for whatever combination of players I most want. I can’t lose a guy to another manager if I’ve already picked him.

Picking at the turn makes me less beholden to ADP. If I have back-to-back picks but then won’t draft again for another 30 picks, well, I had better go get the two guys I want. ADP doesn’t matter nearly as much at the turn because 28 players will be gone by the next time I pick. It’s great motivation to ignore the noise and just pick the players I want.

Also, instead of the draft “coming to me,” I feel like I’m taking the draft to my opponents. I can dictate a little position scarcity or how the prices of starting pitchers might look for the rest of the draft. It’s just a little thing, but it’s something that I can control.

 

5. Though I cannot control my environment, I am of the ability to be prepared with contingencies and dispassionately execute them as needed.

The easiest way to respond to something you didn’t want to happen is to prepare, in advance, ways you might respond if the particular scenario occurs. Each of the steps of preparation above will help with that. Also, a simple look ahead can make a huge difference: If my opponent picks the player I most want, how can I successfully pivot in such a way as to allow me to accomplish my overall goal? Preparation makes it easier to respond dispassionately and wisely, not from the position of panic.

Happy drafting, everyone.

Until next week. –ADHamley