Zen And The Art Of Fantasy Baseball: Equanimity When Good Players Underperform

Consider this scenario: 

It’s week 1 of the MLB season. Excitement abounds. Adrenaline is flowing. Tension is high – both in good and bad ways. Getting our season off to a good start feels essential.

At the end of 4 days, in checking our category stats, we are left in disbelief and horror: 

.162 AVG, 1 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, 0 SB 

0 W, 10 K, 0 SV, 5.47 ERA, 1.58 WHIP.

It’s over, right? Only a week in, and there’s no point in continuing to compete. This scenario is sure to be followed by some version of “I hate fantasy baseball!”

Sound at all familiar? OK, maybe posing the scenario for just the first week is a bit extreme, but what if we see terrible category numbers at the end of the first month? Or even the second? I suspect we’ve all had that happen, and we’ve all probably had the thought our season is toast.

The Moment of Zen:

The concept this week is twofold: equanimity, an essential part of the fourth step in the Eightfold Path, which is wise action. Equanimity is an awareness and acceptance of the present moment without reliving our perceptions of our past failures and, perhaps most applicable to this article, without catastrophizing the future by imagining the worst. Whatever has happened has happened and will not change. We could wish it would, but we’d simply be adding unachievable fantasy, probably doing more damage in the end. We also cannot change the future: what will be will be. We understand, then, that all we can control are our own actions in the present. We can’t change what’s already happened, and we can’t guarantee the future consequences of our present actions. Our best karmic outcome is when we consistently act with wisdom and understanding, not rashness or ignorance.

Easy, right?

How in the world does this apply to fantasy baseball?

Ah, yes, the real reason you’re trudging through this article. Failure is a part of fantasy, and no matter how much analysis or knowledge we put into our draft, players are going to underperform what we thought they would. When this happens, we then must decide if the player is worth continuing to play or even roster; maybe we need to cut our losses while we can and find replacements. But underperformance can, and often is, a temporary blip, not something that must be immediately reacted to.

Let’s consider 2 players who have driven fantasy managers to consider the profound questions: Do I keep this guy? Cut him despite the draft cost? Trade him for whatever I can get?

Player 1: stats through April 15th each season (2023-2025)

After 3 weeks of baseball, it would be understandable for player 1 to start making fantasy managers nervous. And I can assure you – lots of folks were nervous. I saw plenty of managers (especially in 2024) talking about dropping player 1 – a few bold managers even did click the “cut” button.

I hope you weren’t one of them.

Player 2: through June 30th each season (2023-2025)

Player 2’s first half numbers each season weren’t bad at all, but they also weren’t RD 1 caliber, which is where he was drafted (except in 2025).

Because player 2 was a RD 1 pick, managers were understandably disappointed with stats that were only fine, but not great. Right around that time, if you were to dive into fantasy baseball articles or podcasts, the analysts were quite likely suggesting managers should try to “sell low” on player 2. The theory was: let’s accept the “fine” (but obviously unacceptably low) stats but see if someone will give me at least a RD 3 pick based on player 2’s name brand and pedigree before he completely collapses.

I hope you didn’t take their advice.

Player 1: final stats (2023-2025)

Player 2: final stats (2023-2025)

*player missed 3 weeks with a high R ankle sprain

By the way, player 1 was Francisco Lindor, and player 2 was Julio Rodriguez. 

These guys are notoriously slow starters, but a patient and reasoned look under the hood would have shown something important: their underlying stats looked almost exactly the same as they always did. Based on surface stats, it was certainly tempting to lose our minds and start shopping or dropping these guys. After all, some players, even ones we expected to be really good, need to be dropped at some point (more on that at another time). 

A little equanimity, though, might have allowed us to slow down and consider: Are these guys really droppable? Are they actually different and now worse players, or are they just in a streak full of bad results that could be the result of variance and luck? The wise action – or, in this case, reaction – with Lindor and Rodriguez was not overreaction, but underreaction. The season is long, and these guys were almost certainly going to recover based on their pedigree and underlying stats. 

A look at Lindor’s and Rodriguez’s power metrics over the years gives us a glimpse of their uncanny consistency despite their maddeningly slow starts to seasons:

Even Rodriguez, in his “down” year of 2024, had numbers during the final 46 games that would have made for a completely different stat line if he hadn’t gotten injured:

If you were one of the smart ones who waited for Lindor and Rodriguez managers to get spooked so that you could pounce if they were dropped or traded at a discount, you probably were at the top of your league. Indeed, your wise action put you there. 

Until next week. –ADHamley