Howdy Razzball Family!
Long time, no see. Hope you had great holidays and are enjoying the calm before the preseason baseball storm.
Unfortunately, I’ve been summoned to talk about something less relaxing. Preseason baseball time also means that it is preseason injury time, which, as we all know, means in-season injury time isn’t far behind.
The next few months are the time of year when injury risk is easiest to misconstrue. With all of that optimism and far less urgency, it’s tempting to read early updates as reassurance. Instead of reacting to every piece of injury news or update, this is the moment to reset expectations before drafts.
We cannot predict the future, but we can review some of the main offender injuries that become problems, even when they don’t sound serious at first.
Why “Day-to-Day” Might Be Toxic Positivity
Most preseason injuries are packaged with a lot of optimism. Players are “day-to-day” and “expected back soon.” Timelines seem more fluid, and teams talk more about caution without panic. While it’s not necessarily wrong, it tends to distract from the part managers actually care about. Missed reps and delayed ramp-ups matter, even if Opening Day is still on the menu.
The gap between a smooth preseason and a bumpy one usually isn’t about games missed. It’s about how much time a player loses getting ready. That’s where risk starts to pile up, even if it doesn’t look scary yet.
Soft Tissues Injuries: Hamstrings, Obliques, and Other Lies We Tell Ourselves
Big structural injuries can be devastating for both real teams and fantasy rosters, but they’re often easier to handle from a decision-making standpoint. When a player needs Tommy John surgery, the path forward is usually clear. Soft tissue injuries like obliques are trickier, because they might cost a few weeks or quietly turn into a months-long headache. In fantasy, certainty, while rare, is often easier to manage than optimism.
Like obliques, hamstring, calf, and groin issues are like death and taxes every spring and beyond. They’re almost always tagged as day-to-day or short-term. The problem isn’t that these injuries are disastrous. It’s that they’re hard to pin down.
As we have seen in the past, soft tissue issues have a habit of hanging around, and setbacks aren’t unusual once players start pushing back to full speed. Even when someone avoids the injured list, limited early work can mess with timing, conditioning, or workload in the opening weeks. That doesn’t mean you have to avoid these players entirely, but it does mean their early-season production might be bumpier than their ranking or cost suggests.
Back and Core Injuries: When Playing Through It Hurts Us All
In the realm of obliques, core, and back issues don’t always lead to an IL stint, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t a problem.
Players often try to play through back and core injuries, especially pitchers who rely on mechanics and hitters who generate power through rotation. Even when someone stays active in the line-up, production can lag as they compensate. That gap between being available and being effective is easy to miss on draft day.
Pitcher Injuries: Read the Usage, Ignore the Vibes
Pitchers are where preseason optimism gets tricky. “Soreness” is a vague catch-all, and teams use it that way.
Missed bullpen sessions, delayed live BP, or adjusted throwing schedules usually tell you more than any upbeat quote. Teams are cautious in March, and that caution often shows up later as shorter outings, delayed starts, or eased-in workloads, even once a pitcher is technically healthy.
That’s why pitcher injuries feel so volatile. Usage just changes faster than labels or descriptions do.
Drafting Injured Players Without Losing Your Mind
This isn’t a master plan to scare you off talented players, or some vast Razzball Ponzi scheme to take all of your players. Injury risk is part of the deal, and there’s no way to eliminate it. The goal is simply to know where the uncertainty is and account for it.
Preseason injury news should shape how flexible you are on draft day, not force big decisions right away. Sometimes that just means taking a small discount, having a backup plan, or being ready to pivot later instead of making a bold call in March.
This is the part of the season where it’s better to acknowledge uncertainty.
Before You Draft an Injured Player, Read This
Before drafting an injured player, ask whether you’re buying a discount or betting on an easy return. Missed reps, soft tissue injuries, and delayed pitcher usage all add early-season risk that’s worth factoring into cost rather than ignoring.
If you have made it this far, you might feel like I am preaching to the choir. This isn’t your first rodeo, and you probably use the incredible resources included in the Razzball 2026 Fantasy Baseball Subscriptions.
Even experienced managers get burned by injuries. That’s the nature of injury risk, not a failure of process or skill. And if you’re like me and more prone to second-guessing or panic, especially after drafting Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2021 and doubling down in 2022, it helps to have a simple framework to fall back on.
Here’s a quick checklist for those moments:
Draft Season Injury Checklist
| Am I betting on recovery? | If health is the only reason a player is sliding, understand that risk rather than assuming it disappears. |
| Has this player missed meaningful preseason reps? | Missed time matters. |
| Is the injury soft tissue or structural? | Soft tissue injuries are often unpredictable, even if they don’t seem serious. |
| For pitchers: has usage shifted? | The quotes with recovery outlook may sound good, but look for skipped bullpens, shortened outings, or slower ramp-ups. |
| How am I feeling about early season variability? | Drafting injured players often means accepting uneven production early in the season. |
| Do I have a contingency plan? | Let your backup or flex be your insurance policy. |
I’m Keelin, your weekly reminder that injuries don’t follow timelines. You can find me on Bluesky at keelin12ft.bsky.social.
Note: This column focuses on injury situations that meaningfully affect fantasy baseball decisions. It is not a complete injury ledger or a prediction of exact timelines. Teams are often vague, information changes quickly, and this is best viewed as a snapshot of where things stand, with the goal of helping fantasy managers draft with context rather than panic.
