ERA has gone the way of batting average in the modern age of baseball. While it is still somewhat a barometer of true performance, it is really not valuable on the surface. These numbers are easily digestible to the average fan and marketable to show who is good and who is bad. Unfortunately, that is not always the case.
Players underperform and overperform all the time. Great players can have horrible ERAs for half a season, while terrible pitchers can make the All-Star Game due to their defense and fly-ball luck for a few months! On the whole, it is difficult for bad pitchers to sustain great ERAs over a multi-year span, while good/great pitchers can even their bad years out in a large enough sample (unless they play for the Rockies).
Fortunately, we have access to great resources like RazzBall, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference to dig into ERA and scoop out where the real performance is between K-BB (strikeout minus walks), groundball rate, hard hit rate, xFIP, xERA, SIERA, etc.
2025’s Victims
SP Shota Imanaga (CHC)
2024 ERA: 2.91
2024 xFIP/SIERA: 3.62/3.50
2025 ERA: 3.73
SP Bryce Miller (SEA)
2024 ERA: 2.94
2024 xFIP/SIERA: 3.85/3.80
2025 ERA: 5.68 (Injury involved)
SP Ronel Blanco (HOU)
2024 ERA: 2.80
2024 xFIP/SIERA: 4.09/4.17
2025 ERA: 4.10
SP Bowden Francis (TOR)
2024 ERA: 3.30
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 4.17/ 3.88
2025 ERA: 6.05 ERA
RP Alexis Diaz (CIN)
2024 ERA: 3.99
2024 xFIP/SIERA: 5.06/4.48
2025 ERA: 8.15 (Between three teams)
2026’s Victims
SP Gavin Williams (CLE)
2025 ERA: 3.06
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 4.08/4.35
Gavin Williams is a talented SP with a deep pitching repertoire who overperformed in 2025 after underperforming in 2024. Regression is a two-way street, and he is soon to find himself in the middle of it after riding both ends. The former first-round pick has not grown much as a pitcher since his rookie season three years ago, despite jumping one MPH in fastball velocity.
2025 featured Williams’ highest strikeout rate and highest walk rate. His groundball rate continued to increase, but so did his home runs and overall hard-hit rate. Drafting Williams is believing he will continue to increase the good in his abilities while subduing the bad, yet that is wishcasting a player who benefited from an extremely high left-on-base rate (83.8%) and extremely low BABIP (.254) in 2025.
Also, Williams dealt with persistent elbow discomfort in 2024, which cut his season in half. He somehow managed to make a full 31 starts in 2025, but that does not preclude further elbow issues from arriving. Hard-throwing starting pitchers like Williams are the most susceptible to arm issues, and he may not just regress, but miss time due to injury in 2026. The talent is tantalizing, but the risks and profile to date are unappealing, even at his post-100 ADP price.
SP Matthew Boyd (CHC)
2025 ERA: 3.21
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 4.22/4.09
Matthew Boyd carried over his success from late 2024 into 2025, despite playing on his fourth team in four seasons. Boyd completed at least 30 starts for the third time in his career, won a career-high 14 games, and averaged a career-high 93.3 average fastball velocity.
Unfortunately, Boyd’s strikeout rate dipped to his lowest number since 2021. He is also pitching in the upcoming World Baseball Classic and is coming off a season in which he pitched over 80 innings for the first time since 2019. The potential for Boyd to improve beyond his stellar 2025 on the surface is minuscule. He would require another jump in velocity and maintain his health for more than one year (a tall task given his history).
SP Luis Castillo (SEA)
2025 ERA: 3.54
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 4.09/4.03
Luis Castillo isn’t at any particular cliff, more like a plateau. His average fastball velocity and strikeout rate have steadily declined in recent seasons, both to career lows in 2025. The 33-year-old SP is no longer a frontline starter but a capable innings eater with some name value on a high-octane staff in Seattle.
Drafting him is not a death sentence, especially in best ball, where his bad weeks will be erased. However, the upside is limited moving forward, especially after a deep postseason run for the Mariners, which included three more outings for Castillo. His 2025 ADP after pick 100 reflects his decline, but does not bake in the fact that he is fully healthy and losing his stuff.
Castillo’s ability to pitch into the seventh inning regularly is valuable, but moreso in points or quality start leagues. He is the worst kind of safe because, given his name, you may continue starting him if he struggles, like a Jose Berrios or other former fringe-ace of the past. You are better off drafting younger SPs in his range to take shots on potential aces rather than a back-end fantasy starter who provides replacement-level value.
RP Emilio Pagan (CIN)
2025 ERA: 2.88
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 3.91/3.18
Pagan’s 2025 season was a blessing for the Reds and any fantasy manager who picked him up off the waiver wire after the aforementioned Alexis Diaz’s struggles. Despite closing just 33 games through his first eight MLB seasons, Pagan earned 32 saves in 2025 and a new contract to remain with the Reds as their designated closer.
Unfortunately, Pagan is a volatile reliever who has more seasons above a 4.00 ERA than not. He vascillates between sub-3.00 and above 4.00 every year and has not made many peripheral changes beyond his elite 2.91 xERA in 2025. However, pitching in Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark half the time is not kind to anyone, especially those, like Pagan, who allow fly balls over half the time (56.7%).
Pagan’s fly ball rate in 2025 was the highest rate he’s seen since 2021, and it could bite him in the rear with some bad luck, or as we call it, standard regression. He is a fine pick in drafts if you missed out on an early closer or two, given the scarcity and the fact that he is guaranteed the job on Opening Day.
RP Carlos Estevez (KC)
2025 ERA: 2.45
2025 xFIP/SIERA: 4.95/4.43
Estevez is a much easier fade than anyone else on this list. He has severely overperformed in two straight seasons, which means the regression monster should come calling in a grand fashion (like 2025 Alexis Diaz). His skills declined between 2024 and 2025, yet he managed an identical 2.45 ERA and 42 total saves, 16 more than in 2024. Estevez’s 11.9% K-BB rate in 2025 is similar to mediocre middle relievers like Justin Topa and Tristan Beck, rather than high-end, or even middling, closers.
Somehow, Estevez has the second-most saves since 2023. He is only behind the likely perma-banned Emmanuel Clase. Nevertheless, with Estevez’s spotty skills and the Royals’ altered outfield fences in 2026, it is likely that he is out of a coveted closing role like Clase for good very soon.
Follow me on X/Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!
