Too Early 2026 Outfielder Thoughts For Too Early 2026 Draft

Is it too early to start thinking about 2026 drafts? Actually not! Rob DiPietro of the Pull-Hitter podcast and Discord runs an annual “Too Early Meatball” draft every season, and this year’s edition is slated for August 21st. The players are all prominent names in the Fantasy baseball space, and, importantly, this is NOT a mock draft. It is an NFBC Draft Champions league. For those not familiar, these are 50 round draft-and-holds, so no FAAB, these are your players for the whole 2026 season. They will draft 11 rounds “live” on the 21st, and then slow-draft the remaining 39  rounds at some point during the off-season.

I always find this draft interesting as it’s our first look at how a bunch of experts view next year’s player pool. I have my eye on a handful of outfielders, who I’ll divide here into certain risers and fallers vs. their Main Event average Draft Position (ADP) from the 2025 season.

Risers

Pete Crow-Armstrong 115.82 ADP

Does PCA make it all the way up to the 1st round? He’s slowed down a bit, just 2 homers, 2 steals, a .202 average, and a 29.2% K% since July 11th. Still, he ranks 5th among hitters on the Razzball player rater with $36.5 of earned auction value. He’s on pace for a 35-35-100-100 seaso,n and he’s batting .258. Speed guys with power spikes like this pop up almost annually, and tend to go mid to late 2nd round. But PCA is having an even better season than guys like Jarren Duran and Cedric Mullins in years past. So can he make it to the 1st round? Well, that obviously requires at least one 2025 1st rounder to drop out. Gunnar Henderson and Vlad Guerrero Jr. probably will, and JRod and Jackson Chourio might as well. Among later picks, Garrett Crochet and Zack Wheeler could jump from the 2nd to 1st round. I’m going to guess that PCA gets there (barely). I’m not sure I would be the one pulling the trigger there, though. His 18th percentile Whiff% and 1st percentile Chase% are worrisome for your top pick.

James Wood 50.24 ADP

He’s a better hitting prospect than PCA and having a big overall 25 homer, 14 steal, $25 EAV season. Like PCA, he’s slumped big time. Even bigger time in fact, .129,  2 steals and 1 homers since July 10th. Plus, he’s on a significantly weaker offense, and that will likely remain the case next season. 

Wood feels like a mid 2nd rounder, so I’ll guess he’s around the 25th pick. He’s still just 22 and his statcast metrics are a sea or ruby red, save for some swing and miss.

He could easily grow into a 35-40 homer bat with 15-20 steals, and who knows, maybe the Nats actually try to field a real lineup around him in 2026.

Roman Anthony 314.89 ADP

Anthony would have gone much higher had the Red Sox brought him up to start the season. He has looked like every bit the future superstar with a .392 OBP while batting leadoff as a 21 year old rookie. He has a 94 EV and 56% HardHit% while playing plus defense. That’s elite stuff in his first 204 MLB PA’s. Unfortunately, it has not translated into stellar Fantasy production as he has just 2 homers and 2 steals. 

It feels like the Fantasy Juice will flow, and he will get drafted as such. I’ll guess he goes at around pick 100 level. He has 13 barrels, so maybe he should have more like 6 or 7 homers. Or maybe not. In my anecdotal observation of 1 blast, he hit a deep ball into the absolute wrong part of Fenway on Wednesday. It would have been a homer in 29 parks, but just a really long out at home. Will his home park cost him some homers over time? Maybe…but hey, he’s a monstrous talent, just aim closer to the Pesky Pole going forward! He could easily be a .275 25-10 guy next season, hitting atop an excellent lineup. That’s Bryan Reynolds level production with higher batting average upside on a real team.

Honorable Mention Risers

Jac Caglianone 444.33 (drafted 13 times only)

Tyler Soderstrom 262.07

Addison Barger (undrafted)

All or none of the three may get drafted on the 21st, remember it’s only 165 picks total. All have dual eligibility for 2025. Caglianone will lose 1B for 2026, but Soderstrom (1B) and Barger (3B) will maintain theirs. I’ll guess they ultimately all go near the back of this particular draft.

Jac Cags remains on the IL without a chance to improve on his ugly .147 start, with 5 homers in 161 PA’s. He had extraordinarily unlucky results if you believe his .332 xwOBA vs. .218 actual wOBA. 

Soderstrom feels like he’s had about 12 seasons so far. There was the explosion out of the gate, the extended slump when he got moved to the OF in favor of Nick Kurtz, his cameo and production popped back at 1st with Kurtz on the IL, another slump while back in the OF, and then his recent surge. Throw it all together, and he has a .260 average, 21 homers, and 6 steals hitting in the Sutter Health launching pad in West Sacramento. It’s unclear whether the A’s think he can handle LF on some future playoff team, so he may get traded somewhere and move back to 1st.

Barger’s a huge part of the 2025 Jays summer surge. He sits vs. some lefties, but has still managed 17 homers in 356 PA’s with a 93.1 EV and 53.5% HardHit%. He swings with 94th percentile Bat Speed and still makes above average contact. I love this combo

Fallers

Jackson Merrill 26.81 ADP

Health issues have plagued Merrill all season. But even when on the field, his production has cratered from his near ROY 2024 season. His BA has dropped from .292 to .257, and he has just 1 steal, vs. 19 last season. He’s maybe a shade unlucky as his Barrel% has gone up slightly from 11.3% to 11.5%, but he has just 8 homers (in 359 PAs) vs. 24 (in 593 PA’s). Still, at best, he’s a solid 5 category guy without 1 huge carrying tool for Fantasy. It’s very likely we find out next Spring Training, or so that he had a nagging injury all year. And it’s important to remember that he’s still just 22. His sprint speed remains 81st percentile, so hopefully the steals bounce back. But he’s going to fall a round or two, I’ll guess he goes near pick 50.

Yordan Alverez 17.89

Whereabouts Unknown (OK, that’s only mildly funny if you’ve seen Animal House)

Where does the Astro slugger go in this draft? In case you missed the last 3 months, don’t worry, you have as many major league PA’s since 5/02 as Yordan does. And he was not that good in the month he did play. He will absolutely drop to at least the 3rd round, and perhaps much more. He may not even carry outfield eligibility in leagues that require 20 appearances, as he has just 6 so far, vs. 23 at DH. Heck, he might not even get to 10. Or 7. He hit .308 with 35 homers in 2024, and he’ll be 29 years old in 2026. If he returns this season and mashes down the stretch, perhaps his cost in spring does not drop that much, but I’m staying away without a major discount.

Lawrence Butler 56.52

The Law Dog won leagues for many that FAAB-ed him in time for his 2nd half of 2024 explosion. All told, he hit .262 with 22 homers and 18 steals in 451 PA’s. With the A’s moving to a hitter-friendly park in 2025, the sky looked like the limit. And he has not been a disaster. He has 15 homers and 17 steals in 480 PA’s. But its not close to what everyone paid for, as he’s hitting just .231 and his wOBA is down from .345 to .310 while his K% has shot up from 23.9% to 28.7%. He’s now mostly sitting vs. lefties. Butler carries just an 84 wRC+ vs. southpaws, vs. 111 vs. righties. Arguably, the A’s should let Butler (and Soderstrom for that matter) try to work out any platoon issues on the field, but they have other promising OFs like Colby Thomas they like to see. He’s going to drop big time in this draft.