Regression is such an ugly word. Why can players not just be elite forever after a breakout? Thanks to innovations in math and physics, we have heaps of analytics at our fingertips to judge whether a player’s recent performance is sustainable or not.
Expected Stats like xwOBA, xAVG, xSLG, and xwoBACON (mmmm, BACON) are readily available to dissect hitters across the league and try to find a balance in their performance. There is no absolute truth to any of the expected stats that makes them cut and dry. Gray areas exist even with all the data tracked and ingested.
Fast players can regularly outperform their expected stats, while slow players can regularly underperform their expected stats. Also, some players have such a stranglehold on parks that they can force a baseball into the stands with their own repeated tendencies despite poor expected power numbers (see: Paredes, Isaac).
The players listed were all lucky in one way or another. Hell, some of them can continue to reap the success of variance, but regression does come for all…eventually.
3B Junior Caminero (TB)
The Rays will be moving back to Tropicana Field after playing one season in George Steinbrenner Field, the Yankees’ Spring Training park. This move does not make Caminero undraftable, nor does it preclude him from sustaining his breakout, but it should give pause to those who see a 45-HR season.
Caminero did not outperform his peripherals on StatCast by a significant margin, but there is cause for concern when going from one of the league’s best hitting environments to one of the worst. As far as we know, Tropicana Field’s park factors should remain unchanged, despite a recent remodel due to Hurricane Milton.
Caminero posted an average exit velocity and expected slugging percentage among the league’s best in 2025 and could replicate that in 2026. However, several of those balls that were home runs in 2025 could be turned into doubles. The young, star 3B could improve and make me eat my words. However, with a draft cost in the top-20 in most formats, it is difficult to pay up for someone who likely benefited from a one-off park change (see: Blue Jays in 2021).
SS Trea Turner (PHI)
The Phillies are running it back with roughly the same team in 2026 and hoping their veterans can continue to pull their weight on offense. Trea Turner is coming off his best offensive season since 2022 with an average above .300 for the first time since 2021. He is maybe the most underappreciated player in the league throughout this past decade, which pains me to include him on this list.
Turner is not a geriatric at 32 (33 in June), but he is creeping toward a point where he will no longer be in the 100th percentile of MLB sprint speed. Since his initial call-up in 2015, Turner has been in the 100th percentile for seven of his eleven seasons. The four seasons he was not, he was in the 99th percentile for three, and 96th percentile for one (2024).
Unfortunately, Turner is not getting any younger (fact, I had to double-check). Sprint speed is much harder to sustain compared to power as players age into their mid-thirties. His bat already begun to degrade in 2025 with his lowest barrel percentage since 2018 and lowest xwOBA since 2015. He outperformed his .270 xAVG with a .304 AVG and his .410 xSLG with a .457 SLG. He can continue to outperform his expected stats, but the speed can bandage the crumbling power for only so long.
SS Geraldo Perdomo (ARI)
Geraldo Perdomo was one of the MLB’s more valuable players in 2025. He was fifth among all hitters in fWAR (7.1) and 12th in wRC+ (138). This season was a legitimate breakout for Perdomo, but to what degree? He outperformed his expected average by .012 and his expected slugging percentage by .038. Neither suggests a massive regression, yet his history is still foreboding.
Perdomo slashed .235/.327/.330 in 1420 plate appearances through his first four MLB seasons. He slashed .290/.389/462 last season. The elite plate discipline is sustainable, and his power feasibly took a step up at 25 years old. Perdomo is in his athletic prime, which makes a breakout reasonable. Regardless, I cannot shake the feeling of regression.
He was never even this good in the lower minors at 19 or high minors at 21! I want to like Perdomo because of his all-around game. Unfortunately, I will stay away and see if the breakout was this real from afar…at least for one more season.
1B Josh Naylor (SEA)
The Mariners traded for Josh Naylor last season, and something crazy happened. HE STOLE 30 BASES ON THE SEASON!! Josh Naylor stole a combined 25 (!!) bases through his first 598 MLB games. He stole 10 in 121 games two seasons prior, but only six through 152 games in 2024.
Naylor began the season with 11 steals in 93 games with the Guardians. He was on pace for 19 total in a 162-game season, yet managed to steal 19 more in 54 games with Seattle. The 5’10” 235lbs Naylor has a third-percentile sprint speed. He is not a 30-game base stealer yearly, even if he is the best at timing jumps in the world.
Furthermore, Naylor hit well above his expected stats last season. His .271 xAVG and .462 xSLG are both behind his .295 AVG and .462 SLG. Naylor’s luck ran hot as a hitter in Seattle, moreso than in Cleveland, where his xwOBA and wOBA were identical. Expect the bat to simmer down this season as Seattle is the MLB’s worst park for left-handed batters through the past three seasons.
OF Jurickson Profar (ATL)
After a positive test for performance-enhancing drugs and an 80-game suspension, Jurickson Profar returned to the Braves’ lineup without losing a step. He provided 14 HR, 56 runs, 43 RBI, 9 SB, and a 122 wRC+ in 371 plate appearances. This followed a season where Profar hit a career-best 24 HR in 158 games with a 139 wRC+.
Profar was a top prospect once upon a time and has a certain level of talent. However, his career .321 wOBA and 2025 .325 xwOBA are much closer to who he is than the .346 and .365 wOBAs of the past two seasons. He is capable of posting quality counting stats in the heart of the Braves’ offense with his plate discipline and occasional power, but it will come at the cost of batting average. Profar’s .230 xAVG and .390 xSLG in 2025 should foreshadow his rough stats in 2026.
