For the 2026 fantasy baseball season, every team has about 25 or 26 games down and about 135 still to go after the first month of the season. Since 25 games aren’t nearly enough to draw any conclusions, we will spend our early posts of the season looking at the risers and fallers in fantasy baseball from an under-the-hood stats perspective.
Even over a long Spring Training and four weeks of games, that amount of production is not a lot of information to use when evaluating players for the rest of the season. That’s why it’s also important to look at usage, lineup placement, platoon splits, and other factors when trying to determine what to do with tough player choices.
This piece will look at some MLB fantasy assets that have seen their fantasy value rise and fall over the last few weeks. This will hopefully give us an idea of what to do with these players moving forward.
Fantasy Baseball Risers
Jeremiah Jackson (2B/3B/OF), Baltimore Orioles
Jackson Holliday, who? Another Jackson is taking over Baltimore right now, and it ain’t the son of former big leaguer Matt Holliday. Over the last two weeks, Jeremiah Jackson, Jackson Holliday’s fill-in while he recovers from a hamate injury, has had a top-ten profile in fantasy baseball. In that time, Jackson is hitting .340/.365/.680 with five home runs, 15 RBI, and a steal.
Jackson is doing all of this with a high (but not crazy) .353 BABIP, but his speed has something to do with that. He only strikes out 21% of the time and has a 192 wRC+ over his massive hot streak. Holliday has recently suffered a setback in his recovery, so there is a good chance that Jackson will be out on the field for a long time. But even when Holliday comes back, how could the Orioles possibly keep him off the field?
Andy Pages (OF), Los Angeles Dodgers
The start to Andy Pages’ 2026 season has been nothing short of spectacular. He is hitting .370/.417/.605 to go along with five homers and 21 RBI already (tied for the MLB lead). And while it might just be simple enough to say “No one hits .370 anymore” to predict regression is coming, there are plenty of other signs that show Pages is a fantastic hitter, and can keep up at least an All-Star-level profile.
Pages is currently over the 90th percentile in expected batting average and in hard-hit rate. Average is correlated to hard hits, so this is a great sign. Being a part of a potent lineup with strong plate skills will certainly help Pages this year, but if you can sell high on this performance, I would definitely flip him for a top-25 player if you can, but otherwise, it might just be time to sit back and enjoy riding the wave of the Los Angeles Dodgers offense.
Michael Wacha (SP), Kansas City Royals
If you drafted Michael Wacha near the later part of your fantasy baseball draft this spring, congratulations, you have yourself an ace so far. Wacha has a 1.00 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, 23 strikeouts in 27 innings, and two wins (on a bad team). He is four-for-four in quality starts and will go for his fifth on Wednesday afternoon.
Wacha is 34 years old with a career 3.84 ERA, so it’s unlikely he has found the secret to the fountain of youth this year, but his expected ERA is just 3.44, and his barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed are right in line with his career norms. His strikeouts are up, his home runs allowed are down, and the increased usage of his cutter and sinker this year could be the skeleton key to unlock a career year.
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Salvador Perez (C/1B), Kansas City Royals
On the hitting side for the Royals, you may have heard they have been abysmal. A big part of that is the steep drop-off from Salvador Perez this year, especially recently. Over the last two weeks, Perez is hitting .200/.271/.209 with one home run and four RBI. Perhaps most disturbingly, Perez has a 30% strikeout rate and a 0% walk rate in that time. This could just be a slump, but those numbers could mean the end is near (or already here) for the 35-year-old Perez.
Perez has been unlucky with a .186 BABIP, so there is some kind of positive regression coming. But his hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity are all way down this year. His bat speed is not up to career norms, and generally, this looks like a profile in major decline. If there is any kind of hot streak in the future, I would use it as a selling opportunity.
Josh Naylor (1B), Seattle Mariners
Not many players in baseball have been more unlucky than Josh Naylor over the first four weeks, but unfortunately, our leagues don’t have points for bad luck. His batting average on balls in play is a comical .213 (league average is around .290), which has led to a .194 overall batting average. The reason why he might turn things around is that Naylor is one of the most disciplined hitters in the Majors. Even during this four-week slump, he is striking out only 16% of the time, and he has an 8.5% walk rate.
But for now, he just can’t seem to find the holes on the field to get his hits down. He only has two home runs and ten RBI in this span of time, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that this is one of the coldest streaks a player has seen in 2026. There also is no way he will be producing another 20/30 season as he had in 2025 (he only has one steal so far), so that’s hope we can fall back on.
Logan Webb (SP), San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb is off to a pretty terrible start to the 2026 season, posting a 5.40 ERA through his first five starts, which is one of the worst marks among National League starters. While he still maintains an elite 58.9% groundball rate, his command has been awful this season, and has led to erratic starts.
For example, his sinker location has been off, and his changeup lacks its usual movement, leading to harder contact from opposing hitters. His strikeout rate is way down, while his walk rate is way up. He still isn’t allowing home runs (just .60 per nine innings), but with the sinker and changeup not fooling hitters like they usually do, there have been four out of five starts for Webb with an ERA over 4.50.
Keeper League OF of Julio, Carroll and one of MH2, Carpenter and yours truly Pages. Pitching is my bugaboo. What caliber SP should I be in the market for?
Thanks for all your input!!
1. Would you start or sit Weathers at Houston?
2. Would you start or sit Noah Schultz at home vs Wash?
I always appreciate your help!!