Version 1 of our 2015 Steamer MLB hitter and pitcher projections is now available. We project our own playing time (Games and Plate Appearances for hitters, Games, Games Started, and Innings Pitched for pitchers) as well as Saves, Holds, and Quality Starts. These projections will be updated regularly throughout the preseason in concert with playing time shifts driven by MLB depth chart changes or trades/signings. The links are below – you can also access this via ‘Stats’ in the top menu.

Grey’s projections will be available soon.

Fantasy baseball auction values are also available. Links are below. They can be accessed via Player Rater/2015 Pre-Season Player Rater in the top menu. We have two notable enhancements:

  1. We have added a $ per Game metric that estimates the dollar value of a hitter/pitcher based on their projected average game. Thus, if you have a different assessment than me on a player’s expected playing time, you can more easily adjust the player’s value. Projected PA and IP have been added to the Auction Value tables for handy reference.
  2. The Team field is now hyperlinked to a Team page specially designed for fantasy baseball usage. Each team page includes useful links (e.g, depth charts), an MLB news feed, projections, and previous year stats. Click here to see the Chicago Cubs page.

All auction values are based on a $ split of 67% hitting, 33% pitching. We project for the ESPN/CBSSports standard roster (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P, 20 game position eligibility) and the Yahoo! standard roster (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P, 5 game position eligibility).

Fantasy Baseball Auction Values (Standard 5×5)

Fantasy Baseball Auction Values (Non-Standard 5×5)

There are so many possible league permutations – we did our best to cull the most popular formats from past surveys (we eventually will have a custom player rater). The below auction values are all based on 12-team mixed leagues. You can mix/match any of these hitting and pitching auction values as well as use the 12-team standard values. For 10/14/15/16-team leagues, you may want to look at the $ differences observed vs. 12 team in the standard format to determine how to best adjust the $ figures. (I suggest using the standard 10/14/15/16 and then adjusting up/down based on the difference between a player’s 12 team standard value vs. below – e.g., a high OBP, eh AVG guy should get nudged up some if you go to 5×5 OBP).

Fantasy Baseball Auction Values (AL/NL-only – 2 catcher roster format)

These all are based on the following ‘classic’ single-league roster format of:  2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/CI/MI/UTIL/5 OF/9 P

Please feel free to direct comments to this post or on the relevant page.

 
  1. Tom says:
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    Awesome info as usual. Is there any easy way to combine hitter and pitcher auction values into one list for an overall ranking? I play in a 10 team ESPN 5×5 OBP league and would love to see that. Thanks!

    • @Tom: I hear you. Need a custom player rater set-up to fully accomplish that. Best method right now is to cut/paste the 10 team ESPN into Excel, cut/paste the 12 team 5×5 OBP, swap in the $OBP from the 12-team, and then sum up the category $ and add 1.

  2. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    O

  3. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    M

  4. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    GAWD

  5. King Friedman says:
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    Great Stuff as always Rudy.

    If you were in a 5×5 league that uses OPS instead of AVG would you use the 5×5+OPS or the 5×5 with OBP i/o avg for the closest values?

      • King Friedman says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: do you mean subtract $AVG from the total then re-add?

        Thanks!

  6. Sky

    Sky says:
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    As per the usual, Rudy, nice work. Everyone appreciates it.

  7. Corey says:
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    Thanks (for ruining my productivity), Rudy!

    • Corey says:
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      Also, weird how all auction values (yours, Lindy’s, etc.) end up being way, way less than what some of the top players go for in my league. Last year, Encarnacion went for $57. Stanton $47. If the owner of Trout keeps him this year, he will be $67. (sevens!)

      • @Corey: Is that a Yahoo league? The Yahoo $ are much higher than the ESPN $ because there are less rostered hitters.

  8. Whatever says:
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    It always feels like Xmas when you release your rankings Rudy.

  9. jay says:
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    Year after year Rudy- never a disappointment. Thanks for sharing this info. One of the posts I look forward to the most.

    This is why razzball is the best.

    • jay says:
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      @jay: off topic but do you know if Nick is renewing the “Supa liga” league?

    • @jay: You’re welcome! Doubtful on Nick. Need to synch w/ Jay and Sky regarding that league.

      • jay says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: cool man thanks.

  10. Tigres says:
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    Rudy, many thanks for putting these together. Are these based on pure Steamer or do they reflect adjustments based on additional info/instinct? Just curious. Either is great.

    • @Tigres: These are close to pure Steamer. I use their rate stats for pitchers and for hitters vs LHP and hitters vs RHP. I assign playing time (minus DL time) for all hitters and have a model for estimating LHP/RHP PA splits. So all the stats will look a little different than what you’d find on FanGraphs. The testing I did on 2014 projections is that my adjustments led to small increases for rate stats like AVG/OBP/SLG. The shifts that happen on counting stats like R/HR/RBI are more or less insignificant.

      I like having this control so I can move really quick if a certain hitter/pitcher gets injured or i feel their playing time will increase/decrease.

  11. JoshSamBob says:
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    Thanks so much for these… great work as always.

    Regarding removing AVG from the 6×6-OPS to get a 5×5-OPS… what factor do you use to go from (R+HR+RBI+SB+AVG+OPS) to VALUE? Trout, for example, has $44.20 in those six categories, but is listed as $45.20. Cabrera is $38.90 vs. a Value of $39.80.

    There’s some sort of extra multiplier… so if I take out the AVG $, how do I get to a new Value?

    R+HR+RBI+SB+OPS * ? = Value

    Thanks again,
    -JSB

    • JoshSamBob says:
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      @JoshSamBob:
      Never mind… RTFM…

      The sum of a player’s category $ plus $1 (for replacement level) equals their total auction $ value. Converting Point Shares into $ is covered in the FAQs that I had put together as part of the Historical Player Rater.

    • After u add up the 5 remaining categories (all but AVG) – multiply by 1.2 (6/5) and then add 1.

  12. Powerslave says:
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    wow, stat heaven……

  13. Mike

    Mike says:
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    The new team pages are badass! Great stuff Rudy

  14. Big Magoo

    Big Magoo says:
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    Awesome stuff as usual, Rudy. Thanks!

  15. Alky Sobrera says:
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    One of the highlights of the fantasy baseball season right here, and it’s not even part of the season itself. Thanks for all the hard work Rudy, and for your unparalleled transparency with process and results. Much appreciated.

    • Thanks – appreciate the kind words!

  16. Natty Boh says:
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    I’m assuming all the values are based on a $260 budget? Thanks

  17. ashtray says:
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    This is amazing work as always. Thanks.

    Any tips for how I could take your 6×6 (5×5 + OBP) and also include the K’s? I typically just have to wing it by dropping the guys who strike out alot down a tier.

    • @ashtray: I probably would just wing the impact of K’s as a stat.

  18. Cram It says:
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    Are these auction values indicative of what they are/should be going for? Or what they’re worth based on Razzball projections? Alex Cobb is a top pitcher. I’m confused as to the $10 value in 12 team Yahoo. Heyward and Gattis the same price as Harper and Desmond? Can you help me gain some perspective on what these $ values represent? Thank you sir.

    • @Cram It: It is based on what our projections value a player at. It’s hard to know what each auction will price a specific guy – ADPs/average $ values become clearer as the pre-season goes on. Harper is a good example for the value of the $/Game metric. While Heyward and Harper are both valued about $20-$21, Harper’s $/G is $19.7 to Heyward’s $16.4.

      In effect, Harper is discounted (or Heyward earns a premium) because I peg the injury-prone Harper for 576 PA while Heyward is at 649 PA.

      If you feel comfortable that Harper will make it the full year or that you could find a high value guy in FA when he gets injured, he is worth a couple more dollars to you than Heyward.

      Gattis is catcher-eligible but will play 1B/OF/DH which will give him a playing time advantage vs many catchers. Throw in his plus power and he is quite valuable for 2015. Definitely a guy I hope to get at a nice discount vs this value (as i don’t like to pay for catchers).

      • Cram It says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Gotcha. Thanks for breaking it down.

  19. Jack says:
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    Can you put MLBID as a column on your hitter and pitcher projections and ask Grey to do the same when he comes out with his? That would be EXTREMELY helpful.

    • I can put a page up that has MLBAMIDs for all active players and then you can vlookup the ids in excel via player name. Would that work?

      • Jack says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: As long as the names from your spreadsheet would exactly match the names from these projections that would be great! Will Grey’s projections have the exact same names?

        Also, do you know if Grey projects OBP and/or QS?

        Thanks again for all of your great tools. Won my league two years in a row, going for three because of them.

        • Yes, names will match exactly (all from same database). Grey doesn’t project those stats but they are in the steamer data.

          • Jack says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: Great! So where will I find the page when you post it?

  20. John says:
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    Rudy, I’m in a 12 team H2H points league. How would you utilize these rankings? Sort by total bases?

    • @John: I would cut/paste the projections into Excel and then create a formula based on your league’s point structure.

      • Tom says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Then how about differentiating between hitters/pitchers?

        • Rudy Gamble

          Rudy Gamble says:
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          @Tom: just use the H2h points. You can discount pitchers and juice up hitters if u want

  21. Five-On-One says:
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    Rudy – I have a question about what the auction values mean. When I look at the standard 12-team ESPN values, I see 140 pitchers (SP and RP) with a positive auction value. However, in such a league, there will only be 108 pitchers drafted (9 pitchers on each of 12 teams). How do I reconcile these two facts? Thanks.

    • @Five-On-One: Great question. If I used a ‘replacement player’ methodology that essentially forces the 12th catcher, 18th 2B, etc .to be $1, then this would be perfect. But I prefer an ‘average player’ methodology where I am comparing each player against the average hitter/pitcher. With this type of methodology, positions with a significant long tail of players who are slightly below average (SP/RP are two of those) will have more than the expected universe of players above $1 (which is the replacement value). For SP/RP in 12-team as of me typing this, there are 131 SP/RP >= 1 and 41 of those are between $1-$5.

      From a drafting perspective, this basically means that there is a surplus of below average SPs and MRs and that there is little reason to pay more than $1-$2 for any pitchers valued at less than $5.

      • Five-On-One says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks Rudy. I think I understand. Does this mean that the total of all the positive auction values would then exceed $3120 (12*360)? And that the auction values of the better players do not need to be adjusted? If the total of all the positive auction values are equal to $3120, and, due to roster constraints, it is impossible for all those players to be drafted, then the values of the players drafted would need to be adjusted. Or have I gotten hopelessly confused?

        • @Five-On-One: Thanks for the follow-up as I dug in and found an area of improvement. Here’s the details:

          So for each league format, I create a ‘drafted universe’ of hitters and pitchers. For a standard one catcher 12-team league, that is 13*12=156 hitters and 12*9=108 pitchers.

          I assign a split of $174.2 for hitters /$85.8 for pitchers (67/33). These dollars are distributed to this drafted universe based on their Point Shares. Point Shares is similar to SGP but I dynamically determine how much a standings point is worth based on league stats (e.g., in the latest run for ESPN 12-team mixed, a HR standings point is 17 HR – so a player with 17 more HRs than the average hitter is worth 1.0 HR point shares).

          For the ESPN 12-team mixed, the Hitter Universe equaled an average of $174.3 per team with each stat between 32.2 and 32.3 (all hitters credited with $1 replacement value on top of that).

          The Pitcher Universe equaled 85.7.

          That’s all good.

          But if my model for assigning the hitter/pitcher universes is off, it could lead to a larger than ideal number of hitters/pitchers greater than $1.

          The pitching model definitely needed fixing and the hitter model needed a tweak to up the worth of HRs.

          Net-net, there are still more hitters/pitchers above $1 than ideal (15 pitchers, 9 hitters) but all but 5 of those have values less than $4.

          So I would just use these values as is. Do not make adjustments. Just know that as you get down below $5 (for shallow leagues), just realize that there is very little difference between batters.

        • @Five-On-One: FYI, made some improvements I’ll be announcing in an upcoming post that bring the total $1+ dollars very close to the league totals. Maybe within +/- 1%. Thanks for the push!

  22. goodfold2 says:
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    i.suzuki now backup at MIA. d.young bad side of platoon, but doesn’t have any projections as well. EYJ/Tabata don’t, but they are either rosterless or in minors, so not easy to project. But then there’s these: Lough/Grossman/J.Jones/Viciedo who are in minors but do have projections. Trying to go into bidding period in 30 man dynasty, trying to rank a bunch of low end guys, mostly post 100 OF types. I have small budget and probably won’t get Aoki/Dom Brown types, but will probably cheaply grab some of these backup/free agent/minors/lefty side platoon guys for cheap.

    • @goodfold2: I’m updating the projections / $ values on a daily basis right now. Took Viciedo playing time down to 15%. Lough’s got knocked down with the trade for Snider. Grossman hasn’t changed much as the CF position in Houston is so cluttered. It seems right now that Grossman is 3rd in line after Rasmus and Marisnick.

      If you see anyone that appears over/under projected, let me know…

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: i’m going from mlbdepthcharts.com, same as you guys link to.

        • @goodfold2: i use rosterresource (fka mlbdepthcharts) but also just make my own calls based on news/signings. Very speculative this time of year on who is going to start or not. RosterResource is extremely timely in getting in roster changes.

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Rudy Gamble: they are far and away better with the timing, also show every position in minors too, making them just the best at everything, i used to have to ask Grey all sorts of questions before finding that site (through you guys)

  23. dem ribbies says:
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    Hey Rudy,

    Just discovering this bounty of information. Awesome stuff here!!

    I’ve got a question you probably hear some kind of variation of over and over, so apologies ahead if that’s the case.

    I’m trying to find the most appropriate filter settings and adjustments to match the settings of the league I’m in.

    It’s a 10 team shallow roster C/1B/2B/SS/3B/4 OF/DH/5 SP/3 RP (basically ESPN -3 startable bats and -2 arms) with a $200 budget instead of $260. Scoring format is 5×5 substituting OPS for AVG and QS instead of W.

    One wrinkle is that it is a daily league and we have 5 bench spots so there is a little more heat on the SPs as they can be subbed in on their start days giving a team more opportunities to win 2 categories (QS and K).

    I’d assume that I can scale the auction prices for the batters by .77% to account for the smaller budget( $200 instead of $260) but what factor would you suggest I apply to cover for the smaller roster? And what impact would the daily rosters have on auction values, if any?

    Thanks Rudy!

    • dem ribbies says:
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      @dem ribbies: “And what impact would the daily rosters have on auction values, if any?”

      To clarify, I mean to say, what impact would the daily rosters have on the auction values for SP’s, if any?

    • That set-up is almost exactly the Yahoo roster set-up except it’s 3 OF / 2 UTIL vs 4 OF / 1 UTIL.

      So start with the 10-team Yahoo.

      QS for W…I would subtract the $W from all relievers $ totals (note add 1 to the sum of the remaining four $).

      OPS for AVG…Go into the 6×6 OPS and divide $OPS into $AVG. Take that ratio and apply it to the 10-team $AVG to calc $OPS.

      Hope that makes sense…

    • This is very close to the Yahoo 10 team settings. The only real difference is a 4th OF vs 2 UTIL but a bunch of the UTIL are filled by OF anyway so it’s a near wash.

      For Yahoo leagues, one thing I do is actually project as if each team has 9 pitchers (close to 6 SP/3 RP). The reason is that, in practice, the team results for Yahoo leagues (with 8 P) are near identical with ESPN (with 9 P) because of all the streaming of SP/MR. I don’t see any other reason to factor the ‘daily’ aspect into it.

      The OPS vs. AVG and QS for W are tougher to give guidance on but there’s a way:

      1) For QS, the easiest way might be to zero out all the $ for reliever W and then sum up the remaining $ and add $1. This will drive RP values down but that makes sense given they only contribute in 3 of 5 cats.

      2) For OPS, I’d grab the 6×6 Yahoo 12-team with OPS. I’d divide that $OPS into the $AVG. I’d then apply that factor to the $AVG in the Yahoo! 10 team. You’d then add up the 5 $ figures for hitters and add $1 for a new total.

      Hope that helps!

  24. jake says:
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    Hi Rudi,

    Thanks a lot for this. Looking forward to the wonky posts this spring.

    Quick question: You believe Steamers Samardzija ERA? You really t

    • Think that ERA looks on the high side but he is moving from NL to AL and to a rough pitcher’s park.

  25. Natty Boh says:
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    I may join an AL only auction league as the 11th player. Would you suggest I use the 10 team tab or the 12 as my basis? Thanks

  26. goodfold2 says:
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    we just talked about this a few days back, but viciedo, who’s in the minors, somehow got his value bumped UP to $4? It had been -$19, which makes sense.

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @goodfold2: also, suzuki not showing up in OPS projections. he does show up in money projections though now, at -$5.4.

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @goodfold2: d.young, listed as L side platooner, not currently showing up with any projections.

    • Weird – will review tonight

  27. Rudy,

    This is great stuff. Thanks for the hard work! I am curious which set of projections I should look at given my league parameters:

    C/1b/2b/3b/SS/INF/4 OFs/2 UTs/9 Ps but we also draft (and pay for) 5 bench players.

    • I would use the yahoo rankings. The 5 bench players only drives $ down by 2% (5/260)

Comments are closed.