This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft.  Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally.  Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source.

Personally, I ignore team totals throughout a draft and just add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but find it easier.

Final note:  The differences between ESPN and Yahoo roster formats are much greater for hitters (13 ESPN starting spots vs. 10 in Yahoo) than pitchers (9 pitchers in ESPN vs. 8 pitchers in Yahoo).  In daily leagues, I have found that Yahoo leagues end up with similar innings totals as ESPN leagues, indicating that owners are that much more aggressive in cycling in relievers during SP off days and/or streaming.  So you will find the same targets for ESPN and Yahoo.

CBSSports leagues should match ESPN assuming you use the roster format: C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/MI/CI/UTIL/9 P.  For NFBC or other 2-catcher leagues, you should add a 2nd catcher’s worth of stats on the offensive side.

Roster Format # of Teams Point Total (75th percentile) R HR RBI SB AVG W SV ERA WHIP K
ESPN 10 7.5 967 262 955 171 0.272 87 126 3.20 1.15 1,328
ESPN 12 9 943  252  928 162  0.270 85 111 3.24 1.15  1,287
ESPN 14 10.5 917 241 904 152 0.269 84 100 3.29 1.16 1,258
ESPN 15 11.25 904 236 892 147  0.269 84 94 3.33 1.17 1,259
ESPN 16 12 888 232 878 143 0.268 83 88 3.35 1.17 1,246
Yahoo 10 7.5 767 213 757 138 0.274 87 126 3.20 1.15 1,328
Yahoo 12 9 752 206 742 132 0.272 85 111 3.24 1.15  1,287
Yahoo 14 10.5 737 198 723 130 0.271 84 100 3.29 1.16 1,258
Yahoo 15 11.25 729 195 717 127 0.271 84 94 3.33 1.17 1,259
Yahoo 16 12 721 192 711 123 0.270 83 88 3.35 1.17 1,246
 
  1. Rags says:
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    H2H points league. I have stacked starting rotation, but I can get Salazar for essentially nothing. He’d cost $12 out of $310 to keep. That’s worth it, right?

      • the swinging says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: who gets more ab’s this season.. Alex Rodriguez or mookie betts?

  2. Nick says:
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    Just my $.02, but that’s not essentially nothing. That’s about what he’d go for in your draft, no? If he’ll be in the auction pool and has any chance of going for less than that, I’d throw him back. If you are trying to acquire him, then I think that’s fine, provided again that the owner isn’t planning on throwing him back.

    • Rags says:
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      @Nick: Yeah, I have to trade to get him, but I’d give up nothing I couldn’t afford. Then once I had him, I could keep him at 12. Aaaaaand it looks like he backed out of the deal anyway. I hate dealing with this guy.

  3. Aaron R. says:
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    Do I play in a non-standard league or am I missing something?

    Yahoo 10-team.

    Offensively we do C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3OF, UT.

    9 slots.

    That means to achieve 272 HR, every player would have to hit an average of 30 home runs.

    What am I missing?

    • Aaron R. says:
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      @Aaron R.:

      Nevermind. I ‘m an idiot and need to learn how to read. Disregard my stupidity please.

  4. Clint says:
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    So do we enter these into the draft war room tool based on our league site/size or leave the Personal Team Goals section and number of hitters/pitchers alone when entering information?

    • @Clint: I would use these vs what is in the war room.

  5. Matt says:
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    Rudy – how are you approaching SS this year?

    I’m in a 13-team mixed auction league with 26 active roster slots (2 C, 2 1B, 2 2B, 2 SS, 2 3B, 5 OF, 1 Util, 9 P). Hanley, Alexie, Alcides, Rollins and Aybar will likely be retained by current owners.

    I am trying to build the best offense in the league, so I need something at SS but I don’t want to drop a big chunk of my budget here. We have a $250 budget and can retain 5 players. I am keeping Goldy – $21, Donaldson – $21, Arenado – $13, Mesoraco – $2 and Brantley – $1.

    Thanks.

    • @Matt: Hmm, this is a unique roster structure. My experience is closer to 1.5 : 5 on 1b/2b/ss/3b to OF ratio. So this adds a little more pressure on infielders. That said, every team is still pretty much guaranteed starting 1b/2b/ss/3b. I wouldn’t worry about paying premiums for 2B/SS – by avoiding that, you’ll be maximizing your 1B/3B/OF. I’d look at mid-tier 2b/ss and start building a strategy around what skills you want in your MI. I inevitably go with solid 4-5 category guys at 2B like Kendrick and Walker and speed for SS (have Santana in 15-team LABR and Jose Ramirez/Francisco Lindor in AL-only).

      • Matt says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:
        Thaks Rudy. I always appreciate the thought you put into your responses.

  6. Nico says:
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    Thanks, Rudy!

  7. McNulty says:
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    Does this data cover daily moves or weekly moves?

    • @McNulty: You are just using this to get a reading on your draft success. If you are making specific moves for daily that dial down your totals, just take that into account. Same goes for making bets on prospects who aren’t scheduled to play the full season (e.g., Kris Bryant).

      • McNulty says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        I’m sorry, I don’t understand your response. Is this data from daily or weekly lineup changes?

        If this is daily league data, after my weekly league draft, I will probably fall short.

        • Everyone would fall short in a super-active daily by year’s end. These are draft goals – not necessarily end of year goals. I make an exception with saves since the total is predictable but I refuse to project all those saves to known closers when so many fail

  8. Spammer Jay says:
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    I like to do this same thing except I generate my own averages and targets based on the my leagues performance over the years. Since I play with the same group of 11 guys every season I feel like it’s a predictable number for me. Most the time admittedly, I don’t really dive into it until after my drafts to see where I might need some work.

  9. craig schmitz says:
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    I’m confused. How is it that the Yahoo totals with 10 active hitter slots are higher than the ESPN totals with 13 hitter slots?

  10. Pops says:
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    Rudy,
    I submitted my e-mail for the NFBC and haven’t heard from anyone.
    What’s the status for that?

    • @Pops: i’ll send update today. it’s on for march 1st or 2nd. request will be coming through NFBC.

  11. James says:
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    Nice read….Thanks….so these numbers differ from the war room numbers…both are based on 75% or 9 out of 12 assuning a 12 teamer league. In HR Im shooting for 263 instead of 211? I must be thinkin wrong.

    • I am not sure what went into the war room but 211 sounds low.

  12. Blanky says:
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    Would you trade away Kershaw in a 16 team 4 keepers per team W,SV,ERA,WHIP,K/9 for either
    Wainwright a 1st and 2nd or Sale and a 1st

  13. UL's Toothpick says:
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    hey Rudy, thoughts on K Jansen?

    in a 15 teamer, when would you pull the trigger?

    • Look at my 15 team player rater

      • UL's Toothpick says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: is it updated with the injury situation?

        • Updated this afternoon after Saunders and k-rod news

  14. And Now the John Lovitz Dancers! says:
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    16 team H2H league with hits/OPS/holds/QS 7X7. keepers are arenado/goldy/upton/soler/ozuna/cobb. c/1b/2b/ss/3b/ 3 OF/ 2 util. 2 SP/ 1 RP/ 5 P slots. 5 BN, 2 DL, 1 NA. Only 4 adds per week, so can’t stream much. Lot of leeway on how many RP to SP here with all those P slots. What’s a good amount of RP and SP here?

  15. Ryan says:
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    Hey Rudy,
    Any thoughts on categories like OPS and batter K’s? What should I be targeting in those categories? It would be even more help if you knew the Standard Gains Points for those categories in a 12team league, but that’s probably asking a lot as no one else is able to guessticualte on it…
    Thanks for the post!

  16. Stick Ball Al says:
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    Thanks for the guidelines Rudy. Just one of the many reasons I read Razzball. Any idea on adding player’s age on their stat page ? I’m just a lazy ass I know, but it’s a decision maker sometimes when drafting player’s.

  17. Ryan says:
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    Hi Rudy,

    I am in a 16 team head to head keeper league. We keep 6. Having a tough time deciding my keepers. I lost my first 5 draft picks. Can you help me out?

    Jay Bruce
    C Yelich
    J Upton
    Dozier
    Cargo
    Goldy
    D Robertson
    G Richards
    wacha

    Thanks!

    • I would cut bait on Bruce and keep wacha

      • Ryan says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: ok. So Wacha over Richards? As always, thank you and awesome work.

  18. concerned voice says:
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    did nfbc invite email already go out? havent received one yet.

    • Going out in next day or two.

  19. J-FOH says:
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    I have never been a regular user of dollar values. The following questions may have already been asked in the past but number 1 is for perspective and number 2 is for S’s & G’s.

    1) is the $260 a standard for all league sizes or does a larger league (14+ teams) with the same positions as a standard league (12) maintain the $260 budget? Does the amount change when a 2nd Utility or Catcher get added?

    2) Have you ever taken a blank draft grid that would put an average dollar amount that should be spent per draft pick for the entire draft?

    • 1) $260 is the standard regardless of league/roster size.

      2) I did that once. I think it’s only valuable for AL/NL-only in a league like LABR and Tout Wars because the players are very strong.

      • J-FOH says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Im doing so many RCL’s this year that I’m thinking of doing each one a little different. Thought the grid would be an interesting exercise in value. Thanks for being up so late

  20. Birrrdy! says:
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    Rudy, how would you adjust these targets when it’s an NL only 10 teamer?

  21. Evan C says:
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    Rudy as always I love your work! Pick 6 in a keeper forever league
    Stanton
    Haprer
    Ellsbury
    Lindor
    Panda
    Jordan Zimmerman
    Kimbrel
    Wanio
    Degrom

    Thanks!

  22. Dscottncc says:
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    Thanks but no thanks in putting the 11 team league in there haha.

  23. Cram It says:
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    Rudes, are you going to do a NFBC strategy piece? I found something from 2013 regarding the outcome of your first one. So the reference for how many of each position you/league drafted was nice. I guess I’m just curious about the consensus basic strategy with pitching. Like how many Starters do you want to carry? And how many of them are quality vs just running quantity out there? How many ratio aiding MR’s vs potential closers in waiting? Anything would be helpful for this NFBC noob. Cheers.

    • @Cram It: I did an NFBC post a week ago sharing some data from our leagues. No real change to my NFBC strategy from my last piece – might’ve added some stuff in the 2014 post reviewing my draft…

      • Cram It says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Must’ve missed that. Will find. Thanks

  24. Shakey says:
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    What are your thoughts on targets for an NL only league. I’ve tracked the stats on my NL only ten team CBS league for years now, but am curious how it might play out in the bigger picture outside my league. Thoughts?

  25. Nico says:
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    Hey Rudy. This question might fall on deaf ears since I’m a day late with it, so no hard feelings. I was comparing the 10 team Yahoo totals to my one league’s stats (only 2 years of history, so a little issue there), which made me question a few things. Obviously, my league’s 2014 stats should be closer to what you have in this article, and that is true. In 2014, the biggest differences were: my league was 26 HR’s lower and 28 Saves lower. Overall though, those points don’t seem to really be gained anywhere else. It was a very competitive league, so it seems the points just spread out. My first question is, would you change your drafting style in any way to get an edge? Punting saves seems like an obvious choice, but could saves be more coveted bc if you can get them you can dominate the category more easily?

    My next question is along the lines of SGP. Both years, the average SB SGP was about 5. Both years, the league was 15+ steals under the Yahoo average, with a higher floor. So again, everything was close. My main concern is that the steals guys, i.e. Billy Hamilton, are being way overvalued, (He’s the 2nd ranked player using SGP!). How would you think about adjusting this SGP number so that the rankings are more reasonable, but also reflect the unique aspects of the league?

    Thanks in advance!

    • Re: point 1, remember last year was a fluky offensive year. So these goals are modeled based on 2015 Steamer projections. That could explain some of the power difference. Saves is weird – maybe I’m overstating 10-team Yahoo saves because it’s just too much to expect someone to constantly churn their 8-P roster to put in every closer. I might make a change here going forward.

      Re: SGP, I do not rely on actual results since sample sizes are so small. I end up modeling this for each league format (with RCL being a very good ‘test’ for 12-team ESPN format). Here’s how you’ll know if things are funky – add up all the SGPs per category for the projected rostered universe. If there are large differences, I think you’re too small/large on SGPs. Easiest way to correct this is to create a weight for each category so they all balance out (e.g., if you have 300 SB SGPs and the average of the 5 categories is 200, SB GPs are multiplied by 0.67.).

      You can use my 10-team Yahoo Pre-Season Player Rater as a sanity check.

  26. Mike says:
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    In Yahoo, when you have an open trade, you can click a button to analyze the trade and get Yahoo’s projections of your final stats before and after. I don’t know how they do it, exactly, but I am sure that they just don’t take all of your players’ totals (including bench) and use that as the projection.

    Anyway, using the numbers above for Y! 12-teamers, here is where that hypothetical team would place in each category, according to Yahoo:

    R: 12th (752)
    HR: 6th (206)
    RBI: 11th (742)
    ST: 5th (132)
    AVG: 9th (0.272)
    Wins: 8th (85)
    SV: 5th (111)
    ERA: 7th (3.24)
    WHIP: 4th (1.15)
    SO: 6th (1,287)

  27. Rookie Monster says:
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    Howdy – anywhere i can find a summary of standings from past year RCLs? I’d like to see what the average first place to last place team looked like. For example, first place teams on average had x HR, y R, z RBI. 2nd place teams on average had … third place teams on average had and so on.

    Thanks!

  28. John says:
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    Rudy,
    Are those 75% totals for a 12 team yahoo league correct? The only reason that I question this is because last year the totals were significantly higher for the same type of league with 12 teams. For example: Last year the goals were 838 runs, 211 HR, 804 rbi, 163 SB, .270 avg. for a 12 team yahoo league. Did you drastically lower the runs and rbi’s because of the league evolving and it’s harder to score runs? That I understand. Home runs are about the same. What about the drop in stolen bases though? Also, if I am drafting for a head to head league instead of roto and I choose to use the war room, then how many stolen bases could I get away with since we de-value stolen bags in H2H leagues. I’m thinking around 112 or so would give me enough speed that I won’t lose the category every week, do you agree? I always go over on runs, rbi, and home runs in a H2H league cause I value those categories more. I also don’t mind if I am a little short on avg. in H2h. Thanks Rudy!

    • My goals are driven by steamer projections and I think there was an adjustment to the run-scoring environment. I’d expect drops vs last year. Not sure on SB drop. That is my H2H strategy as well

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