And, yes, that’s bad as in bad not bad as in good. They don’t have Ryan Howard down in the thirties like some ESPN schmohawks. They didn’t drop Miggy out of the first round because he’s a bit of a tippler only to move him back a week later. They don’t overrate Carl Crawford, they don’t underrate Jose Reyes, they don’t drink with their pinkies out. Sure, Funston looks like Tim Curry in his profile pic and Brad Evans is wearing nurse’s scrubs, but at least they’re not telling you four starters should be drafted in the first 22 picks. When you compare my 2011 fantasy baseball rankings to theirs, you find lots of overlap. Maybe when Pianowski was hovering past my window in a hot air balloon it wasn’t just to test out his leather cap’s wind resistance as he said, but maybe he was spying on my picks. Your guess = my guess.
I’m officially on an island all my own calling Carlos Gonzalez, David Price, Rickie Weeks, Robinson Cano and Jose Bautista overrated. On Yahoo, I think they’re all ranked too high. Guess it comes down to how much in Grey you trust. I.e. WWGD. No one’s going to sway me otherwise on these overrated guys. In the first few rounds, I want a big power guy (Fielder, Howard, Te(i)x, A-Gon), a balanced outfielder (Kemp, Holliday, Braun) or a 3rd baseman (Zimmerman, Wright, Longoria). You take your CarGo and Cano, I’ll take Fielder and Kemp and we’ll still be friends. Though, we’ll be friends who don’t see each other much and struggle to make small talk.
Yahoo seems to love moobs just about as much as everyone else. For the life of me, I still can’t figure out what people see in Billy Butler (ranked 56th overall) besides a guy who can’t resist Hometown Buffet. Morneau is really worse than him? Even in a year where doctors told Morneau he may never mosh again to Rage, he still beat Butler’s power in 300 less ABs. Everyone talks about how great Ethier was before his injury. Are we forgetting Morneau was headed for an MVP type year before that jobber, John McDonald, dropped the big knee off the top rope? I love Morneau in the 6th round so much, I’d take him in the third round if I fail to get a 1st baseman with one of my first two picks.
Buster Posey is ranked 39th overall. That’s nice in the same way your cousin has to wear a helmet when he’s eating otherwise he’ll bang his head on the dining room table is nice. I imagine Matt Wieters was ranked similarly high last year. It’s not to say Posey and Wieters are the same player, but, well, they can be. I punt catchers and, even if I didn’t, I’m not going near Posey that early. I bet the ‘perts over at Yahoo would probably tell you Posey’s projections are near 85/20/90/.300. I’m sorry, but that’s not 39th overall numbers even if he had catcher and shortstop eligibility and he was getting saves. For what it’s Wuertz, Rudy thinks my ranking of Posey at 95th overall is just as bonkers. Rudy also drafted Mauer last year, ask him how well that did.
Do you see any big bargains with the yahoo rankings. I like tabata, rayburn, daniel hudson and manny ramirez with where their ranked.
Hey Grey, let me know what you think of this team. 10 team auction. Only start 3 OF and 1 util. H2H league standard cats plus OPS and holds.
C-Wieters
1B-Votto
2B-Hill
SS-Andrus
3B-Alvarez
OF-McCutchen
OF-Krispie
OF-Bruce
Util-Howard
SP-Kershaw
SP-Verlander
SP-Dempster
SP-De La Rosa
SP-J Chacin
SP-Morrow
SP-J Zimmermann
RP-Marmol
RP-Kimbrel
RP-Nunez
RP-Hanrahan
RP-Kuo
RP-Chapman
I also have Manny Ramirez and Rafael Furcal on my bench for unknown reasons. I may hang onto ManRam but I’ll be dropping Furcal for probably another SP.
ESPN projects me to finish in last place, which probably means I’ll finish in 1st. What are your thoughts?
I couldn’t agree more, Grey. And, I have to admit this is the first time I’ve used your rankings as my primary resource instead of Yahoo!!!!! One thing I want to say – as much as I love your rankings, they often chap my ass. Only because I’ve come to trust your stat predictions but often times you’ll have a player ranked 30 picks higher than a player for whom you predict better stats. Maybe this has been touched on already but it’s the only thing keeping me from embracing the Razzball top 300 in a firm, manly embrace.
I hope they serve good margaritas on that island of yours.
I agree. Yahoo’s ranks are better than ESPN, but none of them crack me up like Grey – the funniest ‘pert on the web!
BTW, I can keep Reyes for $20 or Stanton for $1 (3 yr max)… WWGD?
Gotta say, Liriano (79), Gallardo (80) and Holliday (27) are three that stand out as being discounted in Yahoo relative to the Razzball Rankings.
Sure as you wait you get scooped though…
@Grey, im doing my first H2H league (10 teams) and have had good experiences with punting in fantasy basketball, im looking to do the same in baseball. Its a 6 x 6 league with Total Bases and Quality starts the added categories, so to me, that screams home run hitters and streaming for pitchers. What do you think of punting the ratio’s and steals? That still leaves me ultra competitve in 8 categories and im thinking 8 or so rounds of huge hitters.
And then load up on pitchers, stack my bench with them, and stream with my 5 pickups, (also 3-4 closers like Cordero, etc.) 3-4 closers, 9-10 starters, and stream 5 a week.
Thoughts? Winning 8-4 every week is a championship in my mind.
Example:
C, Geovany Soto
1B, Ryan Howard (1)
2B, Dan Uggla (3)
SS, Ian Desmond
3B, Mark Reynolds (10)
OF, Jose Bautista (4)
OF, Jay Bruce (6)
OF, Mike Stanton (8)
UTL, Mark Teixeria (2)
UTL, Adam Dunn (5)
BENCH, Curtis Granderson (11)
SP, Max Scherzer (9)
SP, Chad Billingsley (12)
RP, Carlos Marmol (7)
RP, Francisco Cordero
P, Jonathan Sanchez
P, Ryan Dempster
P, Daniel Hudson
P, John Axford
Bench, CJ Wilson
Bench, Craig Kimbrel
Bench, Starting Pitcher
Bench, STREAM SPOT (5 ADDS PER WEEK)
Give or take on all the rounds but i feel i can put that type of offense together, is that good enough with good streaming to consistently be 8-4 or 7-5 in a competitive, yet young league?
@Willy J: We had the exact same rules and cats last year except we had unlimited adds. The answer is yes to your question. Stack your hitters rounds 1-10. From there, I would go 4 quality closers and then 15-end get your starters. It will work. Myself and another guy last year had well north of 250 moves for the year and played each other in the finals.
So many people were streaming that we were getting up at 2:55 a.m. to pick up guys (3:00 a.m. EST is when Yahoo considers it the next day). Landing the services of Mitch Talbot, “Narvdog” as we called him (Chris Narveson), Alex Sanabia, or Wade LeBlanc for the day were considered good pickups.
The league last year was disgusting. We had monumental rule changes this year to ever prevent that from happening again, but yes…..yes it will work.
@Willy J: @Carns: leagues with those loopholes suck, take advantage of it, but it ruins a league if you ask me.
@grey: more professing of Morneua love? What about his .306 pre all star break career average and his .260 post all star break batting average? Or that he’s hit 2/3 of his career HR’s in the first half? Or that he’s turning 30, coming off a concussion, and I’m less worried about that as I am his back issues and the park he plays in?
Hey if you take him and enjoy him for one half, let him put up those “on his way to an MVP season #’s” and can deal him thats awesome…. I’d rather just not take him. I’m not as high on the morneua J as you i guess…. Whatdya think?
How about the CBS rankings, some of those are really strange- Kemp at 62, Dunn at 87.
Eddy: To answer your question from last night, bad players are rewarded with positive points, so the team with the most points is the winner.
Rudy, how well did that work out for ya?
Aww Snap! Rudy and Grey are about to throw down!
Who would you rather have as your fourth reliever in a league that counts Ks/9 and losses (as well as the usual 5 cats):
Rodney, Gregg, Farnsworth, McGee, Soriano, Motte, Hensley, Kuo?
Already have Soria, K-Rod, Lyon.
John Macdonald is the Barry Horowitz of MLB.
Not sure if anyone mentioned this or saw this, but Kevin Towers said the 1B job was Juan Miranda Warnings’ job to lose in ‘Zona.
Grey and rudy will square off on redemption island, with the winner getting the chance to re-enter the game.
A moot point, but I believe it was Aaron Hill’s knee..
I don’t think John McDonald is man enough to hurt someone with his knee.. it would have shattered
@Wilsonian:
i’d probably take mcgee. big upside and good shot at getting saves.
Love the post! I’ve been waiting for it…
I have the 12th pick in a 12 team yahoo mixed league. 5 x 5 (OBP instead of AVG.) Who would take with your first two picks?
Would you take Dunn or Morneau if you had the option after the top 1B guys are gone?
It was John McDonald
You still love Howard as much in a 16-team, mixed H2H-points keeper league where strikeouts are -1pt.?
(HR=4, 3B=3, 2B=2, 1B=1, RBI=1, SB=3, BB=1)
I have the 14th pick and I am keeping Braun in the 2nd. So I am limited on who I can take in the 1st round, (no OF). I’m probably looking A-Rod, Howard, Kinsler or Zimmerman. If Fielder falls, he’s my choice, but I doubt he will.
At -1pt per SO, still take Howard if he’s there?
You still love Howard as much in a 16-team, mixed H2H-points keeper league where strikeouts are -1pt.?
(HR=4, 3B=3, 2B=2, 1B=1, RBI=1, SB=3, R=1, BB=1)
I have the 14th pick and I am keeping Braun in the 2nd. So I am limited on who I can take in the 1st round, (no OF). I’m probably looking A-Rod, Howard, Kinsler or Zimmerman. If Fielder falls, he’s my choice, but I doubt he will.
At -1pt per SO, still take Howard if he’s there?
the big boys have to much data at their finger tips.. clouds what it takes to pick the winners, natural instinct and a strong guy feeling.
@Jason: I paid big bucks for Mauer in the AL and it worked out fine….give or take 15 HRs. I’m less anti-catcher than Grey in 2 catcher leagues (particularly single league) but I really want a big discount on a catcher in shallow leagues (10-12 team MLB with one catcher) or else I just punt.
I’m working on a post that will pose the Grey vs. Rudy all-stars based on players where one of us rates them higher than the other. Should be fun to mock one another as the season unfolds…
$260 auction, 14 team H2H – keep Wright ($33) or Uggla ($21). My other keepers are V-Mart ($19), Grienke ($13), Morales ($6).
I know this isn’t my blog, but isn’t there a forum for all the results of mock drafts, real drafts, and auctions for those who are seeking validation? And also a forum for those seeking advice for their 28 team NL only 9×9 league (includes foul balls and balks) with 17 keepers?
In Yahoo, you’re more than likely to get a shot at either a balanced outfielder and a 1st baseman, or a 3b and a 1st baseman if you’re picking at the end of the draft. I know CarGo is considered overrated here but if you were to take him late in the first, after Braun is off the board, and then pair him with either Fielder/Howard, or Wright/Arod, you would have a nice start. Is CarGo really less safe than a Matt Kemp pick early in the draft?
I’m watching the daily blurbs about Morneau with interest. With his low ranking in Yahoo, he could be a good consolation prize if you miss on the big time 1b’s.
Speaking of moobs, from everything I’ve seen/read from Miggy this year, he’s become quite moob friendly himself. He claims to be at a good weight for himself, but doesn’t look too good to me.
@ThePoonTycoon: ah, my old friend TPT. Good to hear from you again and thanks for the input. I actually took Rodney last night, but then looked at his stats and wasn’t all too pleased (he was my next to next to last pick, though). His WHIP is blech and his K-rate is pretty blah, as well. So I scoured the Waiver Wire and those were the arms out there. I do like McGee, and his K-rate was pretty solid last year, but I’ve heard so many grumblings that the Farns is going to be the guy. That kind of leaned me towards not picking McGee, but I may once he clears waivers and if Joe Maddon makes up his mind.
Grey/Rudy,
Whats your feeling with Sizemore this year? He is sitting on my FA wire and I’m thinking about grabbing him for a bench spot outfielder. Worth the space he’ll be sitting on or should I go find someone else like Davis or Fowler(for speed)
Do you think Cory Hart’s oblique issues pull Dickerson into viability in a 12 team mixed league? I was already targeting him as a bench player in my NL only league.
@ThePoonTycoon:
He’s not going to even be the closer when they break camp. Farnsworth will have the job.
yahoo has Peavy at 303 – take a chance on him that late?
@Indy: I didn’t even see where they’re at, only looked at the top 100, couldn’t find the rest.
@Mark: You’re not great in average, your pitching looks fine but risky.
@codyjorge: Thanks for the kind words!
@Amigo Miguel: They do.
@Riffraff: Thanks! Stanton…
@Steve: True, those guys too.
@Willy J: I don’t think you should punt, but this team is set up for it with all its power, no average, Ks and no WHIP.
@Tony: Yeah, he’s got some Teixeira in him, for sure. But look at his year end stats, he still gets his numbers even if it’s not over a full year.
@Ken Plane: I don’t think anyone even looks at CBS.
@SwaggerJackers: Ha
@Wilsonian: Soriano
@DonSlaughtOnslaught: Ha!
@Wilsonian: Thanks for the heads up!
@schlitzy: That’s hilarious.
@Hank Hammerin: I’d go by my rankings.
@William: http://razzball.com/2011-fantasy-baseball-rankings-top-20-1st-basemen/
@Commish Cauda: Don’t love him in a negative K league.
@Kurt: I have a strong guy feeling me right now.
@Francis: Uggla
@Frank Rizzo: I’d be less worried.
@Mr2Bits: I’d grab him.
@Cole: Yup
@Wizo: Yup
Do you ever go back and compare your preseason top 100 vs. the actual end of season top 100?
@Grey: ya morneau for roto is better than morneua for H2H…. morneau for the first half and then deal him for someone else who is a 2nd half guy is even better. H2H or roto!
The only thing I don’t like about yahoo’s rankings is Brad Evans sexual avarice for moobs.
I’ve been thinking about Crawford a lot. I have a system kind of similar to Rudy’s but with no position scarcity adjustment. Crawford comes up in the top 5 and as high as 2 depending on whose projections you use, which kind of surprised me. Rudy’s point shares have him at 8th. Like Rudy, I don’t consider my rankings a draft order, so I was looking for reasons to move Crawford down (besides position scarcity, which I treat differently).
Crawford is going to rank high in runs, average and steals, this we know. Average and runs are actually the least volitile stats. Everybody scores some runs and everybody has a batting average. So although Crawford scores high, it’s not hard to find runs and average scattered around the draft.
Steals have the highest deviation of any of the stats but steals are dominated by the top 10% outliers (Pierre, Bourn, Davis). Guys who don’t contribute in other categories. Crawford’s appeal is that he steals almost as much as those guys withoug having to fill a roster spot with a guy who steals but does nothing else.
But, you can get one of those steals outliers later in the draft. You can’t get a 30 home run 100 rbi guy outside the first few rounds. HRs and RBIs have a higher deviation than runs and hits/average. Best guys have a lot of power, worst guys a little relatively speaking. So in picking Crawford, even though he has good value, it’s value that comes from categories can be made up for with mix and match later whereas the things you’re missing are harder to find by mixing and matching in the later rounds…
…except not exactly. Your rankings have Carl Crawford at 110 RBIs. That would be good enough for 8th in MLB. It doesn’t seem like an unrealistic number. Hell, he’ll probably drive home Laser Show about 100 times. And all while hitting only about 2 home runs fewer than the average among draftable players (16 vs around 18 according to your top 300)
So here’s a guy that’s giving you very good to excellent returns in 4 categories and not really hurting in a 5th. Plus, if you manage to find enough steals to scatter around with your other players, you don’t have to take that Lorenzo Cain pick at the tail end of the draft. You can use that last starting roster spot to fill in other gaps you might have in the other categories instead of SBs.
Course I might also be total wrong about all that.
@Grey: re: Rodney or Soriano – last night you told me to drop E. Jackson for Cueto, but I’m now wondering a different scenario. Would you drop Jackson for Soriano and leave a rotation that looked like this:
SP- Lincecum
SP- Verlander
SP- Bills
RP- Soria
RP- K-Rod
P- Lyon
P- Rodney
P- Soriano
BN- Gio
BN- D. Hudson
BN- Peavy
We do count Ks/9 (as well as Ks), so that goes into my thinking a little bit. What do you think (or anyone else out there in commenter land)?
Likely keepers, 12 team h2h:
1B – R Howard
SS – Hanley
1B, 3B – Youk
Util, 3B – ARod
OF – Hamilton
Should I trade ARod for Crawford? Or keep ARod as part of my rotating cycle of injured corner infielders?
Thole, Salty, or Hanigan from the “C’s that get on base and…um…that’s it” crew in a deep ol’ OBP league?
@Tarasco’s Secret Stash: Salty…
Grey: You are a golden god. Please help me!
12 team, 5×5 league (with obp instead of average). Ignoring position scarcity (but we do play 5 of), how do you rank these guys?
Stanton, BJ Upton, McCann, Andrus, Chris Young, Hamels, Weeks, Jeter, Hanson, Rollins, Ellsbury, Rios, Victorino, Gardner, C. Santana
Thanks!
Grey!
I need some trade advice brotha…
12team AL only 5×5 dynasty keeper.
I give up buccholz @ $18 and league @$10 (both current year contracts)
I receive Butler @$15 (expiring contract after this year) and Justin Smoak @$2 or Ryan Raburn @$3 (both current year contracts).
IT is up to the other guy whether he gives me raburn or smoak. (Raburn would not have 2b eligibility in my league, and i have a full OF already).
Do you like?
I want to trade away Ellsbury for Heyward who has LAST round value (Heyward, that is). If the owner has any smarts, he’d also want a pick.
If you were the owner of Heyward, what would be FAIR pick value in addition to Ellsbury? Obviously you want to squeeze every drop of juice out of me, but we’re pretending that you care for me here, best friend.
@VinWins
Oh, OK, I understand now.
@Grey YYYYUUUUUUUUUUUPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!
@Iceman: For the entire month of October… http://razzball.com/2010-fantasy-baseball-rankings-final/
@Tony: True
@Oregon Nut Cups: Hehe
@OaktownSteve: If you were to take, say, Holliday instead of Crawford, you get everything but 35 steals plus some extra power. If you take a random MI at the end of the draft who gets 25 steals, you’re back in the running (so to speak) for steals, assuming the rest of your team has a few steals and your team is more balanced.
@Wilsonian: Sure
@Iceman: I’d take Crawford.
@Tarasco’s Secret Stash: Salty
@Jackson: http://razzball.com/2011-fantasy-baseball-rankings/ Doesn’t change that much with OBP.
@M.D.: I like it.
@Eddy: 3rd round…
@OaktownSteve: I second that notion stevie boy… i dig crawford. i dig him a lot. But i’m in auction leagues, and just can’t see paying over $45 for him (which is how much he will go for) when i can get Pujols for that kind of $$.
Tigers Cabrera how many months in jail do you think he will get. Tigers are doomed if he misses any time.
@Mike of Swartz Creek, Mi: why would he get jail time? i read the article, but it said there was no gun found? sounds like he was just drunk babbling like the idiot he is…. i heart miggy in fantasy, but the guy is a dolt, get a hold of yourself man you’re one of the top 5 best players in baseball!
He did say he would kill the two.
@Grey: This has probably been asked before, but I’m wondering who has the more successful record in FB leagues between you and Rudy? From posts I’ve read between you 2 on this site, it sounds like you disagree quite a bit on your rankings.
I´m in a 16 team H2H – 12×12. Does Razball do any posts for deep leagues that are not 5×5? Would like to hear ur input in draft strategy for leagues like mine. My draft is on sunday. Thanx.
@Mike of Swartz Creek, Mi:
Yeah, but you have to realize that it’s only the public that is founding out now. The cops knew about this all along. If any action were to be taken, it would have happened already.
He goes to court the 16th of March
@Mr2Bits: yeah but with those guys you are looking to grab a guy that you hope will eventually be the closer and in the meantime give you good numbers. i think mcgee takes over for farns pretty early in the year, but that’s just me not trusting farns and knowing the rays are in a mini-rebuilding mode and need to see what these young kids got so they can get back to contending in 2012 and beyond.
@Eddy: a pretty damn high pick
@OaktownSteve: If you think Crawford will steal 45+ SBs and hit 100+ RBIs, he’s worthy of a top 5 pick. I just don’t see why the Red Sox will need to run him so much. The only middle of the lineup guy who I can find that stole 40 SBs in a season after 30 is Bonds. Beltran slowed down before the knee injuries. That said, my projections have him at 104/16/83/46/.304 in 659 ABs. No margin for error (or injury)…
Hi Grey! 10 team H2H: Can I win with this OF or should I trade Vmart, Uggla or Andrus for an OF and plug in Desmond, Raburn and the catch(er) of the day?
C Vmart
1B Prince
2B Uggla
SS Andrus
3B Alvarez
OF Holliday
OF Krispie
OF Delmon
OF Quentin
OF Bourn
OF Granderson
@ThePoonTycoon:
You’re telling me. I see that now. Not sure why I wasn’t expecting anything before the 5th. Well, I have a trade in the forums that makes it a bit more complex (includes my Miggy), and I’m hoping he gets distracted by Cabrera’s inclusion and bites.
@Frank Rizzo: Eh, we don’t disagree that much.
@MPZ: There’s too many different formats to cover all of them.
@Howard: Depends who you’re trading them for.
Thanks Grey, I was thinking of targeting someone in the top 10 like Braun or Kemp in a twofer one trade.
ESPN just released results of another one of their mock drafts. For those without the constitution to read through the whole thing, I cannot blame you, here are some select quotes from the Masshole:
“Until he’s not the first overall pick anymore, he has to be the first overall pick.” (brilliant)
Reason for selection Werth at pick 40: “With so many of the top outfielders now off the board, I felt obligated to grab Jayson Werth here.” (he should wear a t-shirt that says, ‘I’m a noob that panics during position runs’)
“So I opted instead for Danks, who I think has an outside shot at being a top-25 pitcher” (juuuuust a bit outside)
Last pick in a deep 20-team mixed keeper league
Which arm? Duchsherer, Mark Rogers or Phil Coke
Which bat? Chris Dickenson, Nolan Reimold or Jorge Cantu?
@Rudy: I agree, it’s tough to see Crawford hitting those numbers. Tough, but not impossible. Nevertheless, the high end of his projections make him a very interesting possibility.
@Grey: I guess my point was, if you roll with Crawford and his 45 steals vs Holliday and his 10, then you don’t take Eric Young Jr at the end to catch up in steals. You take Juan Uribe instead. The result is (using your projections):
Crawford/Uribe: 160 runs, 36 hrs, 185 RBIs, 45 sbs, .275 avg
Holliday/Young: 160 runs, 29 hrs, 140 RBIs, 50 sbs, .284 avg
Grey,
With the second pick in the draft would you really take HanRam and then follow up with 1st and 3rd base in the following rounds? Im having a hard time pulling the trigger on this shmo. I really think Miggy or Votto are safer an better picks. Thoughts?
@ThePoonTycoon:
I agree but at this early stage, I’m going with the safer bet of the two to lock up saves in the beginning of the year. If Farnsworth starts tanking, I’ll be able to right the ship with McGee before things turn south as nobody has touched him in my league due to the uncertainty surrounding the whole club.
@Howard: No problem.
@Sir Larry: 5 SPs in the first 7 picks confirms he’s trying to get out of a crime by acting crazy.
@Commish Cauda: Dickerson, Duchscherer…
@OaktownSteve: I trust Holliday to get his numbers than Crawford to get 45 steals, too.
If you can get any of your fellow league members to buy into the below list, it’s akin to an anti-tank land mine that will allow you to march to victory. Mauer in the second round, pairing Cargo with a pitcher, Braun complete with typo in the third, Votto not in the top 20. Yahoo! contributor Todd Jacobs; a waterboarding is likely WGWD.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=ArbWi.iLEl4xVlWabxaTU96FCLcF?slug=ycn-8018316
@Jason: My rankings reflect how I’d draft, they’re all in the same tier, if you want Miggy 2nd, take him.
@Eng: What the hell, Todd?! What have you done with Joey Votto?!
@Grey: How can you say you want a guy like Holliday first round when I’m fairly certain Cargo will beat him in every single category except maybe batting average, and he still could.
Say you project Cargo to come back down to earth and hit .290 with 25 homers 20 sbs 95 runs and 95 rbi… I’d still have to think thats better than what Holliday will give you, and that pretty much the bottom of the projection for him. Cargo could go all .320 34 hr 110 rbi 100 runs and 22 sb on us this year.
Basically, what i’m saying is that Cargo gives you infinitely more upside, as well as at least 10 more sbs even if you project him to as low as you do.
When I compare the two I see Cargo as having better power, more speed, a better lineup, better ballpark, and with a much higher ceiling. I know I wouldn’t even think twice if it was my pick and both were available. Cargo all the way.
@Eng: WOW! why the hell would you pair a pitcher in the 2nd round with cargo or cano? They state all kinds of BS then don’t justify it with any reasoning…. please let some of my leaguemates read this….
The Inquirer’s Bob Brookover spoke with Detroit Tigers third baseman Brandon Inge who battled through patellar tendinitis in 2009, a comparable injury to that of Chase Utley. The following line floored me:
Inge said Utley has two options: season-ending surgery or playing through intense pain.
If you have Utley like I do I have picked up another 2nd Baseman for one of my pitchers. I hate having a hitter on the bench.
Grey, are you in that friends and family league with the yahoos from Yahoo?
Okay, Grey and assorted Greyskulls, let me know if you would make this trade, and if so, who would you no longer keep?
12 team, long term (forever) keeper league, H2H, 5×5, 3 OF slots.
I’d be trading:
Albert Pujols (kept in 1st)
for
Ryan Howard (kept in 1st)
Matt Kemp (kept in 4th)
I can keep seven players, two of which must be pitchers. Right now, I’m looking at keeping these guys:
Pujols 1
Wright 2
Cano 10
Stanton 11
Heathbar Bell 12
Rasmus 16
Aroldis 14 or Marmol 7 (not sure on this one)
Would ya? And who would you drop? I feel like Colby and Stanton are good values for their rounds, and am hesitant to drop one just to get a lesser 1b and Kemp. Plus the team I’d be trading with is a behemoth, not sure if I want to give him another UltraKeeper. Thanks, you all look great today!
@tommy too strong: Holliday’s also done it for the last 6 years and CarGo has one year under his belt. I’d prefer safe in the first two rounds.
@Tony: Yeah, don’t understand that.
@Mike of Swartz Creek, Mi: Yikes
@Buddo Chezuski: I am.
@Incaviglia Syndrome: Do it, lose Bell, keep Marmol.
@Grey: I trust Holliday more too, but I wonder why? Holliday has reached his projected HR number (27) only 3 times in his career and two of those three times were in Colorado pre-humidor.
Crawford has exceeded the 45 sb mark in 8 of his 9 full seasons. We can speculate that he’ll run less with the Red Sox, but then again, Ellsbury ran wild under Francona. Granted he didn’t hit in the middle of the order. Then again, why would the Sox pay Crawford so much dough if their intent was to take away a big part of his game with a stop light? Crawford is actually a little younger than Holliday too.
Ok…I’m done. Sorry for pestering.
Between Cabrera and Utley I have had to pick up Freeman from Atlanta on 5 of my teams and M. Aviles on one of my teams for Utley.
I thought Utley was a steal in the third round.
Tim Lincecum impersonator or impersonating himself. Check out the table and his right hand:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/The-dude-in-this-video-isn-8217-t-Tim-Lincecum-?urn=mlb-wp290
@Grey: Wow, quick service!
So I’d have to keep two pitchers, so you think I should keep Marmol and Aroldis?
And I’d have to drop one hitter, would it be Rasmus in 16th or Stanton in 11th.
Thanks, you’re the best, better than all the rest.
@Jackson: Agree with Grey, there’s not much difference from his ranks in an OBP league (as Razzball tends to be one of the few sites that recognizes the value of high OBP guys even where it’s not a category), but there are a few in your list that stand out: Gardner, Santana and Weeks get pretty hefty bumps and will likely be good value picks in your draft.
For example, in most leagues there’s cheap speed available late. Looking at last year’s stats, 19 guys stole 30 bags. But of those, only 5 even generated a .350 OBP–Crawford (.356, 47 SB), Gardner (.383, 47 SB), Ichiro (.359, 42 SB), McCutchen (.365, 33 SB) and Hanley (.378, 32 SB). (Note: based on my experience, it takes about a .370 OBP to get max points in a 12-team mixed, and about .350 to be middle of the pack). Gardner gets you not just good, but elite OBP for a speed guy, plus he should score a ton of runs. He’ll probably return about as much value this year in your format as Ichiro did a few years ago at a fraction of the price.
As for Santana, very few Cs have the OBP potential he does, and he should be close enough to the other top guys in the power cats to justify moving him up in your rankings. Soto gets a similar boost in your format. Weeks’s value comes from the difference between standard 5X5 leagues and your format. While in a standard league, his AVG can kill you, he’s always been able to take a walk and have at least a decent OBP.
On the other hand, Rios, Krispie, Rollins, Andrus and to a lesser extent Upton really put your team in a hole unless they drop several rounds or your team compensates for their OBP elsewhere.
I choose Freeman over Smock and Kila Ka’aihue in case Cabrera misses any time.
Does Adam Dunn get OF eligibility in Yahoo leagues this year?
In a standard 12 team where I’ve kept werth and already drafted pujols and kinsler, would you take dread pirate, dunn, or maybe even morneau next? League plays 3of, 2 ut and no ci/mi…want dread pirate but wondering if dunn’s the choice…thx
@Grey:
I’m with you on Cargo. I think he is way overrated and will come crashing back down this year. He went 5th round last year which was way too high for me and Ill be damn sure to not spend a first or second round pick on him.
@Frank Rizzo: Grey and I have only competed against each other in 10-12 team mixed w/ daily changes and he’s a better player than me at that format. I think i’m better than him in deeper drafts like AL/NL-only. I think we’re about even in Fantasy Razzball. But we’ve found that our skills are complementary so we tend to combine forces for our expert leagues.
@OaktownSteve: Guess we’ll have to see how it plays out.
@Black Beard: That’s hilarious.
@Incaviglia Syndrome: Keep Bell over Aroldis, forget Rasmus…
@Hank Hammerin: Very possible…
@Sos: McCutchen…
@Hank Hammerin:
No, only 1B.
That Todd Jacobs guy on Yahoo! is listed as “a Yahoo! user.” So, I don’t think he is actually a regular contributor.
It makes you wonder if they are just picking guys from the comments sections to write top twenty lists, though.
Grey,
Need help. Have the third pick in my draft tonight. Take Miggy?
Also, how far do Utley, Greinke, and Carpenter fall before you grab those guys? Keep in mind, 10-team league (yeah, I know).
Grey,
I need a good laugh tomorrow morning. How about a rant covering the Masshole and his mock draft?
Maybe when we get a few more Posey’s we will look back into that but punting catchers is why my league went to starting 2 of them.
Hey Grey! I trust in you (and Yahoo). Never been a fan of ESPN’s format.
@Comatose: Take Miggy, let someone else take Utley or Carp.
@Rhymenoceros: Beating a dead horse…
@Derek in Utah: Thanks!
ESPN posted their second 10-team standard Mock Draft. Karabell spent the first ten rounds grabbing hitters and wound up with this:
11 – Papelbon
12 – K-Rod
13 – Tim Hudson
14 – Kuroda
15 – Buchholz
16 – Daniel Hudson
17 – Nolasco
18 – Hughes
19 – Lyons
20 – McGee
21 – Shields
22 – Kennedy
He also got Kurt Suzuki with the final pick.
I look at his staff (he said, heterosexually) and see no compelling reason to grab a stud starter…or a stud reliever for that matter.
I find that the major sites (CBS, ESPN, Y!) tend to seriously overrate batting average in their rankings. It’s the hardest category to project, yet they seem to be weighting it heavily…
@CT Old School: Especially not if you’re in a league with AJ Mass.
@sean: Agreed
I love the yahoo gameplay format but can’t stand the yah-hoo that write their “columns”. They are great at pointing out the obvious and bad at everything else…………. I know it would be easy to make fun of my keepers but here it goes, I play in a 14 team 6×6 with EBH and QS. no ci/mi with 3of and 2util, 1500 innings. They are billy butler, ethier and cruz, my first pick will be either morneau or mccann, whats your take?
AJ Mass strikes again… ESPN draft 2.0…. 5 of first 7 picks are SPs. Look at me, look at me, I’m SO contrarian.
For those of you that play in deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues and would be looking for random Ks: Felipe Paulino is moving to the ‘pen. That is all…
@CT Old School: Shout out to CT. In a ten-teamer, I think you have to put a bit more of a premium on SP than you would in a 12-teamer. He was probably trying to illustrate a point that there is plenty of SP to go around. The problem in a ten-teamer is that, if you refuse to draft a SP in the first few rounds like I do, the other owners have drafted the top ten SP and you are already chasing. If you wait until the 12th round to draft a SP, your other owners have now already drafted the top 30 SP. They’ve got three quality starters a piece, and you’re just kicking into gear. Can you pick someone in the 200s that performs like someone drafted around pick 100? Absolutely. Can you do it five times? Probably not.
@Jack: You’re really digging yourself a hole. McCann…
@JoeyP: Ha
@Wilsonian: Thanks for the heads up!
thanks, that is where I was leaning towards. I didn’t want this hole but its the hole I got……..oh and you’re pretty good at what you do.
Grey theres nothing wrong with my cousing wearing his helmet to the dinner table…. EXCEPT for when he hits his dinner plate with it and you have to duck and run for cover to avoid the potatoes….
Great read.
@Jack: Thanks!
@JMonte: Thanks!
Hey Grey, first time replier, long time reader
what do u think of this team i just drafted in a yahoo standard h2h 12 team league thanks in advance
C- ARENCIBIA
1B- CABRERA
2B- HILL
3B- REYNOLDS
SS- REYES
OF- HOLLIDAY
OF- PENCE
OF- RIOS
UTIL- PAGAN
UTIL- LIND
BENCH-BECKHAM
BENCH-KUBEL
BENCH-TEJADA
SP- KERSHAW
SP- HAMELS
RP- BROXTON
RP- C.PEREZ
P- HAREN
P- MARCUM
P- HANRAHANNNNNN
P- KUO
BN- KENNEDY
BN- VOLQUEZ
**http://blog.trutv.com/dumb_as_a_blog/2009/09/exclusive-interview-aj-mass-former-mr-met.html
AJ Mass worked as Mr. Met. Words fail me.
hey Grey,
do you think it’s a good idea in an auction draft to nominate Morneau before the big boppers (Howard, Fielder) are off the board? In a 14 team league, I think the price might get a little crazy if he’s the last elite option
hey Grey,
do you think it’s a good idea in an auction draft to nominate Morneau before the big boppers (Howard, Fielder) are off the board? In a 14 team league, I think the price might get a little crazy if he’s the last elite option.
@KennyFnPowers: Don’t like the bench hitters you took, the team looks light on speed and too heavy on pitching. It’s not terrible overall.
@pat: Sounds like a good plan.
Victor Martinez for Jered Weaver??—–1 catcher league, I have Wieters……
12 team, h2h, 5×5, $260 auction keeper league of the 5 OF, CI,MI, single catcher format.
I currently have these slated keepers:
Uggla $18
Lester $17
Werth $13
Bautista $10
Alvarez $10
I have an offer of Kershaw for Bautista. I would also be getting a small amount of auction dollars to roll with, possibly $2-4$. In essence, I could either keep Kershaw for $6 or Bautista for $10. With my current set of keepers, WWGD?
@Curt: I’d go for better.
@brandon: Kershaw
Whatever happened to the gyroball? Dice-K bringin’ it at 87-90 in ST apparently.
They’ll have forgotten about it obviously, but how much did the Sox drop on this guy?
@Steve: $700 million give or take $650 million.
Somewhere Murray Chass is crying tears of happiness:
http://www.prweb.com/releases/2011/03/prweb5139404.htm
@Steve: Interesting… The cover should be a coal sketch of an abacus.
@Grey:
http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2011/3/10/2041659/new-book-explodes-myths-of-moneyball-bill-james-red-sox
Anyone clicking – come back here afterwards!
@Steve: Rudy said they are going to have a chapter on moxie.
grey,
in a keeper, would you accept this trade (my) justin upton for (his) matt kemp?
What are the best values on ESPN vs Razzball rankings off the top of your head, have a draft tonight. Thanks as always.
@wilsoniam: Don’t see why you’d make that trade.
@I’m Keith Hernandez: http://razzball.com/category/2011-fantasy-baseball-sleeper/
Grey, did you see ESPN’s latest mock draft 2.0? Started laughing when I was thinking about your post about the Masshole. Look at his round 1-5 picks. Pujols, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Jayson Werth, Justin Verlander. Ok Werth and Pujols is one thing. But 3 pitchers in the first five rounds? “I already had a first baseman, so I didn’t need to draft Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard here” why not?!?? would’ve been better than taking two pitchers in the first five rounds and having zero offense to work with. Grey you really should take this guys job….
@Post Masswipe took pitchers in round 6 & 7 too, so it was 5 pitchers in the first 7 rounds. What a clown.
@Post: I talk a little about it in the above comments.
@Malacoda: Ha
@Grey: Strategy question for my H2H draft. As far as Saves go, you shouldn’t punt them, but nor should you explicitly try and win them every week, right?
In other words, either you get Reyes or Andrus and forget about steals for the rest of the draft, or if you miss out on one of them, you draft balanced guys and let the steals fall where they may each week.
(I’m assuming I’ll need to draft Crawford earlier than I’d actually want to)
@Steve: You talked about saves and steals, Steve. Which is it, man! Kidding. I wouldn’t punt either. I’d draft a closer or two and try and get a balanced steal team. If you have to go light, I prefer that than a Reyes or Andrus pick trying to win steals.
@Grey: Hah! I was talking about steals – and I’d never punt them.
I guess what I was looking for was confirmation that while you shouldn’t punt them, nor should you draft looking to win them every single week.
I remember us having a discussion that in H2H, steals is one category that you can afford not to sweat too much. So if you get Reyes or Andrus (at a spot you’re happy to draft them of course – not talking about drafting either of those two as a strategy per se), forget about steals for the rest of the draft. Otherwise go balanced. In either case, you’re going to get some steals each week. Some weeks you’ll have enough, others you won’t, but that’s H2H.
Think it’s time I stopped before I find myself back at the start…
@Steve: In order or least importance in H2H, I’d say average, saves, steals…
Pick 2 keepers…
Utley in 2nd round
Werth in 5th
Hamels in 6th
Greinke in 12th
My other keepers are Votto (2nd), Teix (1st) and CarGo (12th), if it makes a difference
@Adam: Greinke and Werth… Hey, at least your first three are solid.
@Grey: that’s what i was thinking, i was just wondering if hamels being healthy was worth the few rounds difference…
also, if i haven’t used up my His Greyness quota for the day…
In another league, keepers are already Votto, Zimmerman, and Pedroia…which two of Werth, Andrus and Lester? I’d usually keep Lester for sure, but pitching seems a bit devalued in this league and SS sucks, so I’ve been leaning Werth/Andrus (round kept doesn’t matter in this league)
I don’t normally post these but I love this league and I wonder what you think. 20 teams 5×5
C Hundley
1st miggy
2nd Hill
SS Alcides Escobar
3rd Panda
CI wigginton
MI Callaspo
OF Justin Upton
OF Ichiro
OF Manny
OF Coghlan
UT Podsednic
UT Seth Smith
P Sherzer
P Brett Anderson
P Edwin Jackson
P Minor
P Stauffer
P Valverde
P Frank Francisco
P Motte
P Fuentes
BU Chris Davis
BU Chisenhall
BU Brandon Allen
BU J.P. Howell
BU Masterson
BU Conor Jackson
Thanks again!
@Adam: Werth, Andrus are fine if you think you can get a top SP in the draft.
@Giant JJ: Extremely solid hitting for a 20 team league, pitching’s a little wonky but I’m sure you know that since you probably skipped over drafting starters for hitters. Not a fan of Ichiro and would trade him for a top SP.
Thanks, I’m worried I don’t have enough speed too. I’ve never been an Ichiro guy. I really don’t know why I did it. It just happened.
My girlfriend is nuts about you. She doesn’t play fantasy baseball but she reads all of your stuff and she thinks you’re hot. Should I worry?
@Giant JJ: If she draws a mustache on her pillow and cuddles up to it while calling you a schmohawk, then yes worry.
@Rudy Gamble: Excellent point. Won’t Crawford run LESS in front of Gonzalez an Ortiz? The threat of him running will force pitchers to be quick to the plate and throw fastballs, and elevated pitches and fastballs lead to HRs. Much better than him actually running into any outs in front of the thumpers.
@Grey: Should I accept this trade offer in a 12 team 10×10 roto (w/fielding cats + OPS)? My Howard & Gardner for his Miggy & Capps?
Thanks!
NL Only 12 team 4×4 league:
which trio of outfielders would you rather have heading into the auction:
1-Rasmus, Victorino, Torres
2-Rasmus, Victorino, Tabata
3-Rasmus, Tabata, Torres
Ryan Doumit taken off travel roster for Fri. Asked why, Hurdle said “… I think we’ll have some kind of comment, maybe tomorrow, about him.”
@Bill Lumbergh: Eh
@elwood blues: 2
@Steve: Trying to figure out what part of his body to blame.
Jesus. Is anyone watching the news?