For everything that went right in 2010 for Travis Wood, 2011 saw everything go epic fail wrong. His K/9 dropped, his BB/9 rose and ERA jumped a full run. It got so bad, even Dusty Baker didn’t want to abuse his arm anymore as they sent him to AAA in June. I’m giving his 2011 a ‘lack of confidence’ pass; I didn’t see an organization that fully trusted him and I saw that turn into a lack of trust for himself. It’s my theory and I’ll type if I want to. I’d love to hear how you think a guy goes from striking out 8 per 9 to 6.5 per 9 in the matter of 1 season without signs of an injury. The only thing that seemed to get hurt to me was his pride.
There’s also something that strikes me as odd about his 2011 line and it was a similar fluke that hit his teammate, Edinson Volquez: Ridiculously bad 1st innings. Quirky stats here: He gave up 21 ERs in the first inning in 2011, good for a 10.50 ERA. In total, he gave up 57 earned runs for 2011 meaning he gave up over one third of his runs in the first inning of his starts. His ERA from 2nd inning to 6th? It’s at 3.97, a reasonable ERA to expect from him with average luck. Wanna know how well he did after the 6th inning? Well, I don’t know, it’s hard enough to reach the 6th inning if your 1st inning ERA is that high. I’m not making a skillset comparison here, but realize Madison Bumgarner started the year off with some terrible first inning luck. You can attribute most of his bad March/April to a couple of 2 inning clunkers. But Madison wasn’t going anywhere. He knew that and his managers knew that. But did Travis Wood know that or was the talk of Mike Leake, Sam LeCure and Homer Bailey getting to him? You’ll have to find out how many licks to the center of that Dusty Baker tootsie pop yourself.
Note I will not necessarily draft Wood straight out the gates. That’s why he’s ranked so low in ADP; I can go on yahoo, click the clear flag to blue and see how he performs in his first few starts. Your starters will probably fluctuate over the course of the year but someone always grabs that seemingly outta nowhere guy in mid April and you just wonder ‘how he knew’. Sometimes you have to look at what’s Under the Greydar to find them. See how the title ties in nicely with that line? It’s like we here at Deep League Thoughts knew we were ready to bring this sucker full circle!
Thanks for the post. That’s a nice boost of confidence. I’ve drafted Travis in almost every NL Only league and some really deep leagues so far as a late to last round pick. In Theo I trust.
Also, liked your Betemit post. I had picked him up off waivers for a AL-Only league just before I read your post. I feel vindicated.
In really deep NL/AL Only leagues I also like Andrew Cashner as a last round pick. He’s a sneaky pick for leagues with holds, and if Street has his usual stint on the DL, Cashner might be closing.
@Trini, No problem; deep league play requires some strong evaluating of guys that is off everyone’s radar. The Cashner play really is sneaky good in a holds league. Like a ‘can’t go wrong either way’ kinda sneaky
pick 3 keepers, GIANCARLO, Elvis andrus, CC sabathia, hunter pence, D ortiz, mike morse, martin prado, yonder alonzo, matt holliday
@gmatt21, I’m assuming no round discounts nor money associated with these picks and it’s a 5×5 so: Giancarlo, Morse, & CC.
@Oregon Nut Cups, Why do you like Morse more than Holliday? I think that Holliday is safer and more proven.
@Eric Riptide, for me, Holliday is drifting into Hunter Pence territory. .290 with 25 HRs is nice, but not something I’d be worried about keeping. Even if Morse hits .275, he has the potential to hit 30 to 35 HRs. I’d rather go after the potential than rely on the safer option.
I just looked at Travis Wood’s situational stats from 2011 and he gave up 2 HR in pitches 1-15, 3 HR in pitches 16-30, and 1 HR in pitches 31-45. These numbers don’t agree to your article. Am I missing something?
@Bob, Pulled from here:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/30515/travis-wood
Which site are you using? Would be interesting to see where the difference in numbers are coming from.
@Oregon Nut Cups, I was using Yahoo! Sports.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8630/situational;_ylt=AqPeMQZw03IHHimQYfoy0eaFCLcF?year=2011&type=PitchingSit
How do we know which site is correct?
@Bob, wow good question. I am sure it happens but that’s a pretty big difference. It looks like it might actually be yahoo on this one due to baseball reference:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=woodtr01&year=2011&t=p
Well that’s annoying. I always assume Matthew Berry would screw up fantasy advice, I didn’t think they messed up the stats too! Nice find; I’ll see if Grey needs some kind of redacting done. My basis of bad starts still stands, though. Look at that 10.50 ERA in the 1st.
@ ONC :
these ‘under the Greydar’ articles
are a nice addition to this site .
you know leslie gore ??
“It’s my theory and I’ll type if I want to.”
@chata, Thanks chata! I didn’t actually remember the singer’s name but yes I was referencing that song.
Question: who has the better season out of these four hitters as I need one of them to be my final keeper? the league has the following categories: h, r, 1b, 2b, 3b, hr, rbi, sb, bb, tb, avg, obp, slug, ops
Ike Davis
Andre Ethier
Kendrys Morales
Logan Morrison