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First off, the story of Chris Capuano is just great.  Three years after getting seriously hurt, he was back in the big leagues in 2010, doing his thing.  But I’m not giving him the Greydar pub because he is a great story, it’s because he’s so cheap.  No, not like splits the tab with you on a first date and makes you pay more fare for the taxi because you live farther away cheap.  I’m talking about going behind Miguel Tejada according to Mock Draft Central and being the 97th pitcher off the board according to Fleaflicker cheap.

If you’re interested in surface stats, this post isn’t for you.  Capuano had a 4.55 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP last year.  Blech.  Move on and go read about how great of a control pitcher Philip Humber is and forget it.  Alright, now that we’ve rid ourselves of the non-believers let’s scratch and sniff the surface.  Why did I mention Humber?  They’re going in about the same spot in the draft according to fleaflicker, with Humber having a slight edge.  He had a 3.75 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP last year.  Yeah that’s a decent ERA and a useful WHIP but he had a 6.40 K/9 last year.  I just drooled but not out of excitement.  I fell asleep.  The puddle is in the shape of Doug Fister.  Same shizz, different team but more expensive than both.  Now could someone please clean this up?

Alright, let’s get statistical.  Don’t blink, it goes by really fast:  3.61, 3.86, 3.67.  Confused?  Yeah, probably cuz I didn’t tell you what those numbers were.  Those were the xFIPs for Fister, Humber & Capuano, respectively, in 2011.  The difference is Fister overperformed, Humber’s ERA was in line and Capuano underperformed his.  All luck being equal, the only thing Humber & Fister can provide you is WHIP help while Capuano is going to provide you with a 7.5K/9 base with room for upside.   Realize C-Cap (it’s my nickname for him…that I just made up…just go with it) also exhibited a K:BB rate of 3.17 last year, so he’s not a pitcher that goes all depressed teenager and hurts himself.  With a little better luck, you’re finding 150K over 180 innings and a 3.75 ERA.  It may come with a 1.30 WHIP, but you can take that from a $1 pitcher.  It’s like you just found a limited edition Yoshi-themed Wii in the Walmart bargain bin right next to all those Green Lantern DVDs.  Superlatives!  If you are targeting Jonathan Sanchez late in your draft, there’s no reason not to draw a bull’s eye on Capuano as well.  Sometimes it pays to be frugal.

From Around The Web

  1. Dan Z says:
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    Gamble on Andy Pettitte being able to return to form? Or roll the dice on Capuano or Hochevar?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @Dan Z, Not buying the Pettitte story. Last year of play was a bit of a mirage. Hochevar is interesting this year but I’d let him prove something first. Go Capuano for now.

  2. chata says:
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    was happy to draft capuano with my 25th round pick in my keeper league
    (took my catcher in the 26th) .

    was even happier to drop him for Broxton , a week before Soria went down .

    last year , at home , (new shea stadium) , he posted a 3.82 E.R.A. and
    a 1.21 WHIP ,
    but his over-all WHIP of 1.35 is a flat-out killer .

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @chata, The WHIP can kill, but when considering end of draft ideas, those K’s will be a huge benefit, much better than the Humbers of the world.

  3. 3FingersBrown says:
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    Capuano was pretty effective last year for a guy you’ll find on waivers. I was shocked to find an 8.13 K/9 when I just looked him up. He’ll definitely find his way onto my roster, at least steaming against the Pods or Giants this season.

    • chata says:
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      @3FingersBrown,

      careful .
      the padres had his number , last year .

      • 3FingersBrown says:
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        @chata, Only started once against them. Gave up 4 earned (no HR) in 6 innings. I wouldn’t call that ‘having his number.’ One thing to look at though is his home/road splits. Definitely liked sleeping in his own bed…

        Agree about NL West vs East but interestingly enough, Caps’ best start was his 13K 2-hitter against the Braves.

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
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          @3FingersBrown, interesting. Though one game is hard to be much of a feel from. Braves were very inconsistent last year.

          • 3FingersBrown says:
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            @Oregon Nut Cups, Oh yeah. I wouldn’t make much of it. Seems to me that the key to his success is keeping the ball in the park.

            • Oregon Nut Cups

              Oregon Nut Cups says:
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              @3FingersBrown, Agreed. HRs were a killer last year. Playing in SD, SF, and LAD can only help on that front.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @3FingersBrown, I think he’ll find the NL West much easier than the NL East for sure and still has a great home park. Should have a better year than last year overall

  4. Bourjos says:
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    INJURIES.

    Would the Reds have known Madson’s elbow was about to give out when they signed him? Is this possibly why Madson left Philly, they didnt want to take the risk?

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @Bourjos, Would be surprised if that were the case but I don’t know much on that front

  5. Chunk says:
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    “…Jonathan Sanchez late in your draft, there’s no reason not to draw a bull’s eye on Capuano as well.”

    Because they will return similar stats? Because they offset each other in certain ways? I have Sanchez in 2 of 2 drafts so I was curious…

    Great articles, you have a grey-like sense of humor that is clearly original and hasn’t faded. I can tell you are getting more comfortable and going more with your gut, taking more risks…. and it’s working, keep it up!

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @Chunk, he has less k upside than Sanchez but is still in the NL and won’t walk as many. I see them as similar with Sanchez being more of a WHIP risk.

      Thanks for he kind words! My wife finally read some of his work here recently and she said ‘Grey sounds a lot like you.’. I chortled. In all seriousness, it’s nice to work at a site that doesn’t require a preface for what I sound like. It’s hard to explain insanity.

      • 3FingersBrown says:
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        @Oregon Nut Cups, Your writing style makes for a fun read, worthy of being alongside the great works of the Mustacheod One. Huzzah!

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
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          @3FingersBrown, Haha, thanks! That is a high, hairy-lipped compliment!

  6. Van Hammersly says:
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    I like it! Just grabbed him as my 6th SP in a 12-team NL-only league yesterday. Am looking forward to confidently starting him in all of his @LAD, @SD, @SF starts and then some.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @Van Hammersly, Nice! Should be a good grab for you.

  7. jac says:
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    question for you: i seem to recall that u guys provided an update for the war room to include composite projections. is that avail this year as well? i’m a big fan of composite and dread having to upload them from another source into the great war room database.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @jac, Sorry jack I’ll have to refer you to the war room for that question

  8. B.J. says:
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    12 team Yahoo 5×5 H2H league

    I had the 3 pick and took Votto there because I was afraid I would miss out on a top 1B with my 2nd pick.

    C- Doumit (until J. Montero gets C eligibility) 1B- Votto 2B- Kendrick SS- Andrus 3B- A. Beltre
    OF- McCutchen, Jay Bruce, Andre Ethier UT- Eric Hosmer
    Bench- Jesus Montero

    SP- Bumgarner, J. Zimmermann RP- Marmol, G. Balfour
    P- Brett Myers, Ricky Romero, Daniel Hudson
    Bench- A. Sanchez, Johan Santana, F. Liriano, A. Crow (waiting to see how the KC situation shakes out), Bud Norris

    I tend to focus on bats early and then grab best arms available later in the draft. I’m not sold on my closers but they should do the job. I like my SP’s upside and if Liriano and Santana can perform to half of their potential I think I’ll be just fine.

    • princerudynasim says:
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      @B.J., nice team man. Liriano looks amazing and the guy is in shape and has Mauer back..big year. Since you have Marmol and everyone in Chi is hurt i would keep an eye on this Rafael Dolis kid. Saw him pitch and he looks good. Converted SS with heat could be poor mans Santos is everything goes to shit with that bullpen

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @B.J., Good looking team overall with my only minor quibble being Ethier, depending where you got him but that’s still a really solid team. Pitching staff is balanced and has upside. Good job!

  9. princerudynasim says:
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    great read. I call Capuano my “poor mans Colby Lewis”……So gentlemen now that Giavotella has been cut, who should i cut for him….

    Giavotela for

    Smoak
    Huff
    Thames
    Infante
    Reddick
    Pastornicky

    and would you guys cut Nieman for Duffy or Lance Lynn?

    Thank you gentlemen who put input

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @princerudynasim, With Snider sent to AAA as of today, I like Thames (assuming that is Eric you’re talking about).

      I’d give the NL guy a shot over Niemann but would monitor Duffy as the season progresses.

      • PrinceRudyNasim says:
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        @Oregon Nut Cups, Thanks man….is that Jay f@&king Buhner??! If it is god bless you both lol

        • Oregon Nut Cups

          Oregon Nut Cups says:
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          @PrinceRudyNasim, no problem and I fully accept your blessing as it is Bones :)

  10. K76154 says:
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    If you think Capuano is a value pick, then I am wondering why nobody here talks about Jonathan Niese. He had similar ERA and WHIP last year, but he had better xFIP, FB velocity and GB%

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @K76154, hey K76154, we do have a post called ‘Getting a Little Nosey about Niese’. Unfortunately my links are going straight to spam but if you search it off the home page, we’ve got you covered.

  11. Jarred says:
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    Hey Grey, just did my first auction draft and wanted to see what you think. It’s an 8 team standard 5×5 h2h keeper league with an inflation of 15% every year. I got:

    C: M. Montero (6)
    1B: Fielder (25)
    2B: Kinsler (21)
    3B: Longoria (27)
    SS: Hanley (25)
    IF: Zimmerman (12)
    OF: Upton (24)
    OF: Cargo (31)
    OF: Stanton (17)
    OF: D. Young (1)

    P: Bumgarner (10)
    P: Kennedy (9)
    P: D. Hudson (9)
    P: Marcum (9)
    P: Zimmerman (8)
    P: Wainwright (8)
    P: Johnson (7)
    P: Marshall (1)
    P: Street (2)
    P: League (1)

    BN: Morrow (1)
    BN: Melky (1)
    BN: Howard (1)
    BN: Duda (1)
    BN: Harper (1)

    What do you think?

    • Jarred says:
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      Sorry Oregon, it’s a habit. Would love to know what you think.

      • Oregon Nut Cups

        Oregon Nut Cups says:
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        @Jarred, Not a worry Jarred, I always just give the fair warning that I’m not Grey just so as not to confuse people. I think your team looks stacked, but in 8 team leagues tend to make it that way. You didn’t overspend anywhere I can see; you should good discipline. Not a fan of Josh Johnson, but you made good moves on the rest. Typically wanna have a higher end ace with a smaller league, but if Bum, Hudson, and/or Zimmerman make a step forward, you’ll be golden on that front. All and all, a very solid team. Just don’t sit on players too long. That waiver wire is gonna be full of good players throughout the year; make sure to take advantage as needed.

        • Jarred says:
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          @Oregon Nut Cups, I completely agree with you that I needed an ace, but one guy spent about $220 on starting pitching, taking Halladay, Lee, Felix, Weaver, Hamels, Lincecum, CC, Greinke, and Strasburg so pitching was looking kind of slim. Considering all those pitchers went to one team, I think i ended up with a top rotation.

          • Oregon Nut Cups

            Oregon Nut Cups says:
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            @Jarred, Wow, that’s some crazy money to toss onto your staff. Don’t get me wrong, I really do like those pitchers and plan on targeting them myself in my deeper leagues as potential aces. Was simply saying smaller leagues lend to having higher end aces but I now see why you don’t have one. The other person will be selling those arms in doves as the season wears on or they’ll sink like a rock. You’ve got the more balanced team, kudos!

  12. john says:
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    Looking for last pitching spot and I’ve got a few to choose from. Peavy, Chris Cap, Niese and Hochevar, Alvarez. I am really leaning Capuano is this crazy, based on last yrs numbers, new park and the spring. What do you think. Or I could pick up Jim Johnson and have 3 closers and 2 relief in Jansen. Let me know your thoughts thanks.

    • Oregon Nut Cups

      Oregon Nut Cups says:
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      @john, If you need a starter, I’d rank that Niese, Capuano, Peavy, Hochevar though they’re all great deep league plays. I don’t have huge confidence in JJ, but I can’t fault the idea. Personally, I always try and nail down the good pitcher since saves come and go but worthwhile starters are harder to get as the season wears on.

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