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So here we are, the last week of the season. If you’re playing now, you’re in the money game of your head-to-head league, or you’re in a dog fight to pull ahead in the roto standings. I’ve said this for the last three weeks but, congratulations! You did something right. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say there are a few things you definitely didn’t do, you didn’t draft Justin Verlander, you didn’t draft Buster Posey or Joe Mauer anywhere near the first 5 rounds, you didn’t invest in one of the top 3 closers, and you probably didn’t draft Dominic Brown (Sorry Tehol). They say fantasy championships are made after the draft. Whoever they are? Seriously do you know? I’m just going to guess that if there is a they that writes these cliches, then they know Nick Capozzi. Mostly because he knows everybody in the fantasy industry. I’m also going to assume it’s a secret club that I’m not privy to. You know, like Skull and Bones.  Wow that escalated quickly! Where was I? Oh yeah winning fantasy championships. Well my belief is that the secret to winning in the final week is pitching, and how you use your streams. If you’re in a H2H league with a limited move number than be careful. One must choose wisely. With this in mind I have created a new format for these posts. As I mentioned last week I had the vision of putting my rankings in spreadsheet form and providing a couple of key metrics I felt gave you the readers full transparency into my thought process. Well my vision is reality behold the new and improved two startapalooza. You’ll see that in addition to the Pitcher’s name and opponent, I’ve also provided the pitcher’s handedness, the pitcher’s Home/Road ERA, the opponent’s Home/Road wOBA, and the opponent’s Right/Left wOBA split. These are the numbers I look at most closely when creating my rankings for the week. So why not share them with you? Enjoy, I put some time into this and I believe you’ll find it extra helpful. I hope it also sparks more debate in the comments and gives you guys all the more reason to challenge my tiers. I’ve also made sure that I based my Two-Start roster off of Rudy’s new two start pitcher SON/tool. This way all the information mirrors each other and gives some continuity to the post. Thanks again for reading and I’m looking forward to bringing this format back next season. Go Get’Em!

In honor of Lawrence from Office Space our Tiers will be dedicated to doing two chicks at the same time.

Two Models (Must Start) 

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
Madison Bumgarner (L) @LAD 2.05 0.315 0.311 SD 4.03 0.278 0.275
Cole Hamels (L) @MIA 1.76 0.321 0.31 ATL 3.29 0.294 0.323
Chris Sale (L) @DET 1.97 0.343 0.345 KC 2.36 0.311 0.314
Felix Hernandez (R) @TOR 1.98 0.337 0.332 LAA 2.16 0.335 0.318
Johnny Cueto (R) MIL 1.79 0.308 0.316 PIT 1.79 0.317 0.331

What a tier! There are 5 must start guys this week. I’d be shocked if all 5 of them make both starts, but let’s focus on best case scenario here. I love me some Madison Bumgarner this week. He gets a road matchup against the Dodgers, and as you can see Mad-Bum is a road warrior. He actually struggles at home which sort of makes no sense but okay. We can throw those domestic problems out the window, the Padres are coming to town! The Friars are like the Santa Claus of MLB lineups, just traveling around, giving out gifts, and making good children happy. As for Cole Hamels he gets a road start against Miami, and much like Bumgarner he too is a road warrior. Chris Sale has two tough division matchups in the Tigers and Royals, but he’s Chris “bleeping” Sale. You always put Chris “bleeping” Sale in the top tier….Always! The same goes for Felix Hernandez, not the greatest macthups, in fact not even close. But! He’s matchup proof. Rounding out this tier is Johnny Cueto, who’s had a wonderful season, and dominates at home.

Two Pop Singers (Tier 1)

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
David Price (L) CHW 3.78 0.313 0.314 MIN 3.78 0.305 0.309
Mike Fiers (R) @CIN 1.71 0.306 0.294 CHC 1.82 0.302 0.296
Tyson Ross (R) COL 1.88 0.28 0.334 @SF 3.79 0.307 0.309
Francisco Liriano (L) @ATL 2.36 0.304 0.323 @CIN 2.36 0.306 0.297
Tanner Roark (R) NYM 2.5 0.308 0.301 MIA 2.5 0.299 0.309
Jeff Samardzija (R) LAA 2.84 0.335 0.318 @TEX 3.14 0.302 0.296
Derek Holland (L) HOU 0.64 0.302 0.332 OAK 0.64 0.298 0.304

Let’s be clear David Price is good, he just hasn’t been that good lately. For whatever reason he just doesn’t seem like he’s settled into his new surroundings. Then again it’s Detroit, not easy surroundings to get used to. Sure Tampa is sleazy, but at least it’s on the water and has a damn good climate. Also lots of blondes. He gets two home starts this week against the White Sox and Twins. Both teams are sort of middle of the road against lefties, so it could be a good week for Price to turn it around. Mike Fiers gets two good matchups and I’d expect his hot streak to continue. I love both Tyson Ross and Francisco Liriano this week, look at Liriano’s road ERA. Filthy City, USA, population Dat Doode<! As for Ross he’s El Hombre in his casa, and the the start at San Fran isn’t too scary. Tanner Roark is good at home, Jeff Samardzija is good, and Derek Holland has been great since returning.

Two Porn Stars (Tier 2)

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
Carlos Carrasco (R) KC 2.42 0.311 0.301 TB 2.42 0.307 0.305
Adam Wainwright (R) CHC 3.27 0.302 0.296 ARI 3.27 0.281 0.299
Danny Duffy (L) @CLE 2.19 0.32 0.3 @CHW 2.19 0.314 0.314
Alex Wood (L) PIT 2.39 0.317 0.307 @PHI 3.11 0.295 0.301
Michael Pineda (R) BAL 1.95 0.322 0.324 @BOS 2.37 0.314 0.3
James Paxton (L) @TOR 2.16 0.337 0.307 LAA 1.88 0.335 0.339

For the record Adam Wainwright has good matchups and he’s been very good in September. He’s just not that good at home and I have this feeling that the Cubs are going to tee-off on him. Also he’s not doing you any favors in the K department with his paltry 5.91 K/9 this month. He’s a ratio and wins guy. Let’s say his name was Kyle Lohse would you have an issue with the ranking? Carlos Carrasco has been a monster the last few months and maybe he should have been ranked higher. I think that speaks more to this week’s slate of double dippers than anything else. Danny Duffy is back and more than likely making two starts. He worries me a bit, but the numbers are too good to drop him down any further. I think the bottom of this tier Alex Wood, Michael Pineda, and James Paxton, could all be difference makers. I like Paxton much more than Rudy’s two start SON, I’m sure much of that low ranking is the Angels matchup, and I agree, because if it was anyone else he would have been ranked higher.

Two Co-Eds (Tier 3)

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
Jake Peavy (R) @LAD 4.75 0.315 0.328 SD 2.91 0.278 0.286
Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) SF 3.82 0.316 0.315 COL 3.82 0.28 0.342
Gio Gonzalez (L) NYM 3.88 0.308 0.288 MIA 3.88 0.299 0.31
J.A. Happ (L) SEA 3.23 0.303 0.286 BAL 3.23 0.322 0.324
Wei-Yin Chen (L) @NYY 3.38 0.312 0.313 @TOR 3.38 0.337 0.307
Henderson Alvarez (R) PHI 1.75 0.295 0.293 @WAS 3.8 0.323 0.312
Yordano Ventura (R) @CLE 3.17 0.32 0.32 @CHW 3.17 0.314 0.313
R.A. Dickey (R) SEA 3.98 0.303 0.305 BAL 3.98 0.322 0.324

Lot’s of good streamers in this tier. I like Jake Peavy‘s home start against San Diego for obvious reasons. I also really like J.A. Happ‘s home start against the Mariners. Mostly because he’s very solid at home and the Mariners can’t hit lefties. Actually they really can’t hit in general, but when it comes to lefties whoa! do they suck. Gio Gonzalez gets two good starts but he gives me the creeps like Andy Dick or Kevin Spacey. I love Henderson Alvarez against the Phillies but want nothing to do with his start against the Nationals. Yordano Ventura gets two tough matchups but he’s been very good the last couple of months and is probably ranked too low. The thing is both the White Sox and Indians hit righties well at home. R.A. Dickey per usual is a crapshoot.

Two 5’s = 1 Dime! (Tier 4)

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
Bartolo Colon (R) @WAS 4.35 0.323 0.312 HOU 3.68 0.302 0.297
Kyle Lobstein (L) CHW 3.24 0.313 0.314 MIN 3.24 0.305 0.309
Aaron Harang (R) PIT 3.51 0.317 0.331 @PHI 3.86 0.295 0.293
Gerrit Cole (R) @ATL 4.42 0.304 0.292 @CIN 4.42 0.306 0.294
Bud Norris (R) @NYY 4.83 0.312 0.301 @TOR 4.83 0.337 0.332

Try as you might two fives don’t make a ten. Hey no shame in your game, you’re looking for numbers. For the record I’d use my nephew Kyle Lobstein, he’s making Bubbe proud. Gerrit Cole is this low because he stinks on the road.

Two BBW’s (Do Not Start)

Double Dipper (R/L) Start 1 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA Start 2 Opp H/R ERA Opp H/R wOBA Opp L/R wOBA
Kyle Gibson (R) ARI 4.48 0.281 0.299 @DET 4.76 0.343 0.328
Eric Stults (L) COL 4.39 0.28 0.342 @SF 4.74 0.307 0.315
Ricky Nolasco (R) ARI 4.14 0.281 0.299 @DET 6.54 0.343 0.328
Brad Hand (L) PHI 4.61 0.295 0.301 @WAS 4.56 0.323 0.323
C.J. Wilson (L) @OAK 5.18 0.329 0.304 @SEA 5.18 0.293 0.286
Jake Odorizzi (R) @BOS 6.06 0.314 0.3 @CLE 6.06 0.32 0.32
Nick Martinez (R) HOU 6.29 0.302 0.297 OAK 6.29 0.298 0.317
Chris Bassitt (R) @DET 7.71 0.343 0.328 KC 4.38 0.311 0.301

That’s All

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Download Table as CSV
Note: Filters and sorting in the table below apply to the output!

# Name Team Week Of $ Start 1 Date Start 1 Opp Start 2 Date Start 2 Opp Own%
Carlos Carrasco CLE 5/29 32.3 6/4 @KC 5/29 OAK 100
David Price BOS 5/29 23.3 6/4 @BAL 5/29 @CHW 100
Alex Meyer LAA 5/29 19.3 6/4 MIN 5/30 ATL 1
Danny Salazar CLE 5/29 16.8 5/27 KC 5/26 KC 99
Kenta Maeda LAD 5/29 14.1 6/4 @MIL 5/30 @STL 95
Kyle Hendricks CHC 5/29 11.8 6/4 STL 5/29 @SD 100
Marcus Stroman TOR 5/29 10.8 6/3 NYY 5/29 CIN 100
Matt Moore SF 5/29 10.2 6/4 @PHI 5/29 WSH 34
Ricky Nolasco LAA 5/29 9.4 6/3 MIN 5/29 ATL 0
Robbie Ray ARI 5/29 6.9 6/4 @MIA 5/30 @PIT 97
Robert Gsellman NYM 5/29 6.6 6/2 PIT 5/29 MIL 14
Charlie Morton HOU 5/29 5.2 6/4 @TEX 5/29 @MIN 78
Rich Hill LAD 5/29 5.1 6/3 @MIL 5/29 @STL 99
Edinson Volquez MIA 5/29 5.1 6/3 ARI 5/29 PHI 4
Tyler Anderson COL 5/29 -2.2 6/4 @SD 5/30 SEA 4
Michael Wacha STL 5/29 -4.8 6/4 @CHC 5/30 LAD 95
Jose Berrios MIN 5/29 -10.2 6/3 @LAA 5/29 HOU 99
Tanner Roark WSH 5/29 -14.2 6/4 @OAK 5/29 @SF 78
Amir Garrett CIN 5/29 -16.5 6/4 ATL 5/29 @TOR 24
Julio Teheran ATL 5/29 -16.8 6/4 @CIN 5/29 @LAA 92
Jordan Montgomery NYY 5/29 -17.2 6/4 @TOR 5/29 @BAL 1
Mike Leake STL 5/29 -18.8 6/3 @CHC 5/29 LAD 95
Tyler Chatwood COL 5/29 -19.1 6/3 @SD 5/29 SEA 3
Dylan Bundy BAL 5/29 -19.3 6/3 BOS 5/29 NYY 97
Vance Worley MIA 5/29 -21.5 6/4 ARI 5/30 PHI 0
Jeremy Hellickson PHI 5/29 -21.9 6/4 SF 5/29 @MIA 43
CC Sabathia NYY 5/29 -23.0 5/27 OAK 5/26 OAK 7
Jason Hammel KC 5/29 -23.0 6/4 CLE 5/29 DET 14
Sonny Gray OAK 5/29 -24.7 6/4 WSH 5/30 @CLE 73
Randall Delgado ARI 5/29 -26.5 6/3 @MIA 5/29 @PIT 3
Sam Gaviglio SEA 5/29 -27.0 6/4 TB 5/29 @COL 1
Matt Garza MIL 5/29 -28.8 6/3 LAD 5/29 @NYM 11
Erasmo Ramirez TB 5/29 -30.5 6/4 @SEA 5/29 @TEX 0
T.J. House TOR 5/29 -30.5 6/4 NYY 5/30 CIN 0
Jarred Cosart SD 5/29 -31.5 6/4 COL 5/29 CHC 0
Martin Perez TEX 5/29 -32.1 6/4 HOU 5/29 TB 3
Kyle Gibson MIN 5/29 -32.3 6/4 @LAA 5/30 HOU 0
Chris Tillman BAL 5/29 -33.9 6/4 BOS 5/30 NYY 36
Jesse Hahn OAK 5/29 -43.3 6/3 WSH 5/29 @CLE 22
  1. Matt says:

    Battling to maintain 1st in my roto league, my rotation is:

    Alex Wood

    Do I start them all next week? Bit concerned about Pax’s Jays/Angels matchups. Can’t afford a WHIP blowup the top 3 teams are seperated by .001

    • Matt says:

      I should also mention it is a weekly league, where rosters are locked after Monday’s games start.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:

        @Matt: Sure bench Paxton. I think he’ll be good against the Jays but the Angels matchup is tough.

        • Matt says:

          @Ralph Lifshitz: thanks Ralph. Me always second-guessing myself wonders if theres a chance the Angels would rest their starters over the weekend, but they may indeed play them to stay fresh

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:

            @Matt: They could but you’re playing with the lead and worried about ratios flipping. If you needed counting stats I’d say play on.

  2. Sniff Test says:

    Do you trust Pomeranz today? I am winning era and whip but am chasing wins. I would hate to blow it all up.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Sniff Test: The Phils in Oakland go for it.

  3. royce! says:

    Tyson Ross might be shut down, and Robbie Erlin could take his place.

    I think you missed Sonny Gray, who should start Tuesday and Sunday (the A’s rearranged their rotation to have him start the last game of the season). Though they could have changed that since his last shart.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @royce!: I was on the fence about Grey. The only site listings him as a two start guy is CBS and I don’t trust them. As I mentioned I wanted it to match Rudy’s SON above.

      Ross could be shut down no word yet so I included him until further notice.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:

        @Ralph Lifshitz: Update Ross is out for the week

  4. luv da rookies says:

    last week and in first——NEED K’S AND W’S for the coming week so its important i pick who will definitely make the two starts

    Who is the FINAL WEEK MAN??


    are all available for by last $1 FAAB

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @luv da rookies: I think you have to go Happ, he’ll make two starts, faces a Seattle team that is miserable against lefties, a Baltimore team with nothing to play for, and will get you K numbers. Nobody else in the bunch has a good K/9. Bud Norris is a close second but he’s not great on the road. The O’s also clinched so they could be rolling out AAA lineups. Good luck!

  5. Baezaworldseries says:

    If you do this every week next season. My Fiorinol intake will be cut in half(at least). For the grinders with 15+ teams, this is very valuable. I appreciate the time and effort to all the Razzball crew who make fantasy baseball easy and fun.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Baezaworldseries: Extra points for the Fiorinal usage! I think there are way too many half assed Two Start articles out there, lots of opinions and no data.

  6. Chad says:

    Quick question- need to drop one since Tanaka is back. Have Fiers, Carlos C, Cobb, Stras, Pineda, A Wood & Cole. Tanaka is a keeper so anyone else can go. Leaning Pineda or Cole (GC has road games and been rough away from home)… Thoughts please. Thanks much!!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Chad: Yeah as much as it pains me in a keeper league, drop Cole. He’s not going to be useful this week.

      • Chad says:

        Thanks man! Quick offensive quick as well ~ drop the likes of Heyward and Howie for guys who will play for sure, either non-injury or clinched playoffs?? The Stanton non-DL is killin me at zeros and was thinkin a Vargas or Arcia for j-hey may make sense. Then a Jedd or someone for HK since thy clinched!?! Thoughts if you dont mind! Thanks Ralph…

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:

          @Chad: Jedd and Vargas

          • Chad says:

            Much love – here’s to the last hooray! Hope you are enjoying making people not feel alone… Haha! Thx

  7. Scott says:

    What about Collmenter? He has two starts @MIN and home vs StL on the last day of year. They could be in playoff mode.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Scott: Collmenter is a two start guy this week. That’s a new development since Thursday when the post was written. Unlike early in the season so much is in okay these last two weeks. It makes this a real guessing game. I’d place Collmenter at the bottom of tier 3 top of 4 he’s sort of a tweener.

  8. Bri says:

    Great write up! Thanks for the great info all season.

    I’m heading into the championship this year after a dominating season thanks to Razzball. I’d really like to put the dagger in, though. I already have FHer, Bumgarner, Fiers, and Carrasco going twice but am looking for another.

    Happ and Collmenter are both available.. But I also am holding Dan Haren. Looks like his Sunday start was pushed to Monday so he’s a two starter now too. Which of these three has the best outlook for the week?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Bri: I like Happ

  9. Brian says:

    So, I’m gunning for the championship in my weekly H2H points league. Tough pitching decisions this week, especially with so many things up in the air schedule wise.

    Looks like Cobb is lined up for 2 starts now, which is a nice bonus for me. I also have Kershaw as a no brainer, and Hendricks is getting 2 starts now. Cole gets 2. he looks iffy, with both on the road, but I’ve gotta play him – it’s all or nothing. That leaves a single start decision between Cashner (who’s been completely locked in lately), Fister, Stroman, or deGrom.

    Right now I’m thinking Cash, but deGrom has also been quite good lately.

    I could also go with a second closer, Papelbon, but I trust him less after last week, plus coming back from the suspension.

    My opponent has Price, Wainwright, Pineda, and just picked up Lobstein and Bassit. He also still thinks Odorizzi is getting 2 starts. I’m kinda hoping he plays those guys instead of Strasburg, and that Price and Wainwright both get skipped when their teams lock up playoff spots before Sunday!

    So, keep rolling with Cashner, right?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Brian: Cashner for sure and the best thing for you is two Odorizzi road starts dude is a puddle on the road.

      • Brian says:

        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks for the vote of confidence.

        Even better is that the Rays are swapping Cobb and Overeasy this week, so it appears Overeasy will only get 1 road start. Luckily, Yahoo hasn’t changed their probable starters yet, so I don’t think he will get the memo. Bonus for me.

  10. Crapshoot Kershaw says:

    if you’re thinking pop stars are better than porn stars, you’re simply thinking of the wrong porn stars.

  11. Crapshoot Kershaw says:

    ryu isn’t starting once, much less twice.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:

      @Crapshoot Kershaw: This was researched and written on Thursday and Friday. Ryu got skipped on Saturday night. The last few weeks of the season these things are in flux. I can’t make manager stick to a set schedule, I can’t stop guys from getting hurt or shut down. I simply make the best with the information provided. Sorry Bud!

      As for the two porn stars thing from a performance point sure but it was more from a conquest standpoint. It’s far easier to bang two porn stars than to bang to pop stars. You’d actually need to do something besides just pay the pop stars money. Porn stars are typically doing house calls on the side to supplement their income. Cust kayin.

Comments are closed.