Fantasy Baseball Advice

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Mariners Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of U.S.S. Mariner.

1) Baseball Prospectus estimates that Kenji Johjima – he of the plummeting 3-year AVG/OBP/SLG trend which fell to an atrocious .227/.277/.332 in 2008 – will get 60% of the catching time with Jeff Clement getting 2/3 of his playing time at DH.  How DO you see this playing out and how SHOULD this play out?

I think Clement’s going to end up getting about 65% of the playing time behind the plate – he’ll play against most RHP.  If his knee starts hurting, they’ll shift him to DH and stick Griffey in LF occasionally.  My guess is that Johjima gets less than 300 PA this year.

As for how it should shake out, Clement should given the chance once and for all to prove whether he can catch or not.  The best line-up the M’s can field has Clement behind the plate, Griffey at DH, and Endy Chavez in LF, so hopefully that’s the one they end up with on most days.

2) Ichiro is turning 35 and has been the picture of consistency for his 8 Mariner years – 157+ games, 31+ SB, and .300+ AVG.  Any reason to suspect he may slow down or break down in 2009?

Ichiro is a machine when it comes to stretching and keeping his body in shape.  There’s a reason he never gets hurt – he keeps his body in top physical shape, and he really has the physical skills of a 24-year-old.  His speed hasn’t declined at all, and there’s no evidence of him losing any of his past abilities.  Ichiro’s one of the most sure things in baseball.

3)  Whom do you think has the better year – F-Her or Jean-Luc Bedard?  Do you think Brendan Morrow clears 140 IP?

I think I’m just going to reject the F-Her nickname entirely.  King Felix will have a better year than Bedard.  And no, I don’t think Morrow will go over 140 IP – the organization will be careful with him, and with guys like Rowland-Smith, Olson, and Vargas kicking around, they have some decent arms who could be used to let him skip some starts from time to time.

4) Whom do you think will emerge as the closer?  Mark Lowe?  Miguel Batista? David Aardsma? Mike Schooler?  (note: asked before the Chad Cordero signing)

Mark Lowe is the favorite, mainly because his change-up gives him a weapon against LHPs.  Batista, Tyler Walker, and Roy Corcoran are all more suited to being RH specialists.  Aardsma has the stuff if his command takes a big leap forward, but that’s probably a long shot.  So, Lowe’s the best bet for saves, but I wouldn’t count on anyone getting more than 20.

5) Which Mariners’ set of moves begged for the most inevitable outcome:

a) 2005’s monster contracts for Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre = disappointments in proportion to their height

Beltre hasn’t been a disappointment at all.  He’s a star, and probably the most underrated player in the game right now.  If anything, he’s underpaid.

b) 2008’s signings of Erik Bedard + Carlos Silva = sub-VORP pitching due to Bedard’s injuries and Silva’s health

Silva’s health wasn’t a big problem last year – the M’s defense was just a disaster, and putting a pitch to contact starter in front of that group of defenders was just not going to work.

(note: ‘Silva’s health’ was a poorly phrased joke.  I was inferring that he provided sub-VORP pitching because of his lack of injuries – i.e., he’s a below average pitcher)

c) 2009’s signings of Don Wakamatsu (coach) + Ken Griffey Jr. = severe hamstring injury during pre-game calisthenics

If the M’s can limit Griffey to mostly DH’ing, he should be able to stay relatively healthy.

Usually I wait until the 1st of every month to go over who’s closing where and who’s backing them up.  You know, the Donkey-Corn/Brain Freeze/$12 Salad post.  See, you are familiar with my work.  Great, I love how you do whatever you do too.  Being in the heart of fantasy baseball draft season, my diploma from The College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston says I must do some early closer updates for 2009 fantasy baseball.  I’m not going to mention guys who are completely safe as of right now.  One generalization before I get to these closer schmohawks.  You want anyone getting saves.  Yes, you do.  Trust me.  You may think Lindstrom will return in 2 weeks and be fine getting 25 saves this year.  You may be right.  But if Leo Nunez starts the season as the closer, there’s just as good a chance that he keeps the job all year.  Last year, you swore Chad Cordero would get the job back from Rauch and there was no reason to grab Big Jon.  You swore Huston Street would take back the job from Ziegler.  You also missed out on good closers.  Anyway, here’s some closers to watch for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Matt Lindstrom – Strained rotator cuff.  I would still put him on my bench because he could bounce right back.  Or not…

Leo Nunez – Could easily end up with 35 saves or 5.  There’s the fun!

Trevor Hoffman – The Hoff did a slo-mo jog to the trainer’s room where he was diagnosed with a strained right oblique.  I think an oblique is the thing the monkeys are worshipping in 2001: A Space Odyssey.  Not sure.  Hoffman’s old and this could be a recurring issue.  I think he’ll be fine for the season, but if you want to plan accordingly…

Carlos Villanueva – Could be the replacement, but he has no closer experience.  He only has really-horrible-so-far-in-spring-training experience.  He may have the job of mop-up man if he can’t get his spring training act together.  Which leaves…

Todd Coffey – T.C. Odd Offey might be the guy right now for Holds and Vulture Saves.

Carlos Marmol – Since back in November I’ve been saying Piniella will go with the crappy, experienced closer over the lights out MR.  I still think Marmol is draftable in every league.  Like after 10PM at Casa de Grey, Marmol is lights out.

Kevin Gregg – Funny thing happened on the way to being a junky middle reliever, homeboy looks like he could be a junky closer.  The catch, Gregg is only good if he’s getting saves.  So who do you draft?  Both, if they’re at the right spot.  When Gregg has 15 saves in May and you trade him for Ryan Zimmerman, you’ll be happy you drafted him.

Huston Street – See Manny Corpas.

Manny Corpas – See Huston Street.  Now you’re trapped in an infinity circle of Street and Corpas!  At the end of the season, I think Corpas has more saves than Street, that doesn’t mean Corpas gets a single one in April.

Joey Devine – Came into this looooooong spring training with the job wrapped around his finger.  Probably leaving spring training as the setup man.  He’s better suited for the closer role and could slide into closing games by April 15th.  He’s also injury-prone and might not grab the job from…

Brad Ziegler – Should start the season as the A’s closer and could keep the job all year.  Stranger things have happened.

George Sherrill – He’s the closer until he’s not.  Probably sometime in May he cedes to…

Chris Ray – Hey, everyone from the Sherrill ellipsis, good to see you!

Brandon Lyon – Has the job.  No need to back him up.  Yet.

Troy Percival – Same deal as Brandon Lyon.  He’s listed here because that could change if a gust of wind catches his knee the wrong way.

Mark Lowe – The Mariners Moose – Chad Cordero – Miguel Batista – Tyler Walker – David Aardsma – The Mariners Moose moved up the depth chart for this closing job.  Cordero will be closing by late-May and collect 20 saves; stash him on your bench.  Grab Lowe for the ten saves he could provide.

Chris Perez – It really seems like Perez slept with LaRussa’s daughter or something.  In fairness, Perez is not exactly winning the hearts and minds of the Cards coaches.

Ryan Franklin – 75% chance he gets the job.  Before you explode in the comments, I agree, Franklin’s not better than Perez or Motte.  You tell that to LaRussa.  Sometimes experience beats out skill set.

Jason Motte – Has an outside shot at the Cards job.  Don’t sleep on Motte!  Unless, of course, you’re drowsy and he gives you a knee to rest on.

Brandon Morrow is out indefinitely due to forearm soreness.  Punt!  I really liked Morrow going into this season.  There’s something to a reliever being converted to a starter in their first year.  They just get up for the challenge or something.  Whatever the case may be, Brandon doesn’t seem up for the challenge any morrow.  You don’t want to deal with this meshugas.  If it’s Ervin Santana, then you draft him later and hold out some hope.  If it’s a 4th to 5th starter (Morrow), why bother?  You wanna give to charity, the March of Dimes could use your help.  Or Jerry Lewis.  Anyway, here’s some other things I’ve seen so far in spring training regarding fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – He’s injured.  If I were a spiteful person, I would say it serves you right for drafting Mauer.  Not sure why anyone drafts this guy, but he’s struggling with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  He’s not going to steal any bases this year, so you’re basically drafting a no-speed Polanco at catcher in the first 8 rounds.  Eh, you do what you do.  I’m done getting aggravated.

Manny Corpas – Would it surprise you to hear Huston Street is struggling with injuries and Corpas now can take over the closer’s role?  If it would surprise you, welcome to baseball.  See Wikipedia for further information.

Ryan Spilborghs – He’s pulling away in the race for the Rockies leadoff spot.

Tyler Walker – Might still be the answer for, “Who will get more than 15 saves this year for the Mariners?”

Jose Reyes – Will again be batting leadoff.  And this is the number one reason why I don’t put too much stock into spring training news.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) is doing nothing to win the 1st base job.  Bodes well for McPherson.

Chris Duncan – He’s winning an OF job for Saint Louie.  Now if he can just avoid his brother’s high-fives.

J.R. Towles – He took my vote of confidence in the catchers to target post last week and spat in its face.  He’s doing everything to lose the job.

Chipper Jones – Injured himself in the WBC.  And taco diarrhea still burns.

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Some closer battles have not been squared away yet.  The Cubs are still holding Gregg over Marmol’s head, the Cards are still reluctant to say Perez, the A’s might split duties between Devine and Ziegler and the Mariners are looking forward to 2010.  Personally, I think the Cubs will split Marmol and Gregg 75/25, taking a little value away from Marmol and adding a lot of value to Gregg.  If Gregg gets any saves, he’s worth a spot on your roster.  I think Devine should and will be the closer for the majority of the year.   I think the Cards will go with Perez out of the gate and he’ll be the closer for the majority of the year.  Though his leash will be short, making Motte a good late flier.  Other good late fliers for the MR. B’s out there who are looking for saves are Jensen Lewis, Chris Ray, Wheeler, Balfour, C.J. Wilson and Corpas.   Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
18. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
19. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)
21. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
23. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
27. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
28. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
29. Huston Street, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Mark Lowe, Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the major league closers.  Before we get to that, I want to clear up a potential misconception.  Donkey-corns are not the only closers I’ll draft for my 2009 fantasy team.  I’ll more than happily draft closers from the Brain Freeze category.  Cause, see, I’m a save vulture.  It is what it is.  I’ll take saves from anywhere, except probably from the $12 Salad category.  I think those guys are great.  I just don’t believe in paying for saves.  I said “probably” because at the right draft spot, everyone’s worth looking at it.  Some of these closing jobs aren’t finalized just yet.  That wouldn’t stop me from grabbing both guys if I had room and the price were right.  Just because everyone thinks Brandon Lyon should be the closer doesn’t mean Fernando Rodney has no place on a team until Leyland makes a formal announcement.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your 2009 fantasy baseball draft, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad?  Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal.  No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate.  These closers are $12 salads.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima, Takashi Saito)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Jesse Crain)
3. Brad Lidge, PHI (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez, NYM (J.J. Putz)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles.  Why are you following a donkey?  Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him.  Does the donkey talk?  Yes.  Yes, he does talk.  So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn.  The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves.  These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)
7. Jonathan Broxton, LAD (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Francisco Cordero, CIN (Jared Burton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
10. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jesse Carlson)
11. Brian Fuentes, LAA (Jose Arrendondo, Scot Shields)
12. Kerry Wood, CLE (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
13. Jose Valverde, HOU (LaTroy Hawkins)
14. Chad Qualls, ARI (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
15. Carlos Marmol/Kevin Gregg, CHI (If it’s Marmol alone, he moves up these rankings. If it’s Gregg, he moves down.)
16. Heath Bell, SDG (Mike Adams)
17. Joey Devine/Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt)
19. Matt Capps, PIT (John Grabow)
20. Mike Gonzalez, ATL (Rafael Soriano)

BRAIN FREEZE

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw.  Brain freeze!  Make it stop!  Use the following closers at your own risk.

21. George Sherrill, BAL (Chris Ray)
22. Trevor Hoffman, MIL (David Riske, Carlos Villanueva)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Lyon, DET (Fernando Rodney, Joel Zumaya)
25. Chris Perez, STL (Jason Motte)
26. Huston Street/Manny Corpas, COL (Taylor Buchholz… As soon as the Rockies pick a closer, I’d move the guy up a bit.)
27. Joel Hanrahan, WAS (Saul Rivera)
28. Matt Lindstrom, FLA (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
29. Frank Francisco, TEX (C.J. Wilson)
30. Tyler Walker, SEA (Roy Corcoran, Miguel Batista, Brandon Morrow, Richie Zisk, the Mariners Moose)