Fantasy Baseball Advice

No, this is not the bottom of the Top 20 2009 fantasy baseball rankings barrel.  No, next we’re not going to do the Top 20 Guys Who Will Have The Most Balks.  Chillax.  It’s one post.  The only fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s phrase) that seem to pay attention to Middle Relievers are those that play in a Holds league.  This is wrong, I tell ya.  A great way to balance out your ratios is by carrying a few middle relievers on your staff.  (BTW, Ron Jeremy can carry three middle relievers on his staff.)  Say you had Aaron Harang last year and he mistook your team’s ERA for his toilet, but you also had Waking Joey Devine.  With just Harang, you had the unsightly dump of a 4.78 ERA.  With Devine and his brand new toilet brush, you had a 3.95 ERA.  Voila, snitches!  If you also carried Brad Ziegler, you had a combined 3.36 ERA.  Not to mention, you had saves when Ziegler took over for Street.  Middle relievers can also help balance out your junky closers.  Okay, school’s out, Alice Cooper.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 middle relievers for 2009 fantasy baseball:

1. Carlos Marmol – It should be Marmol closing, but I wouldn’t count on it.  Five virtual dollars say Piniella pulls the ol’ “Gregg has closer experience” card.  All Mr. B’s will be smiling.  2009 projections can be found at the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

2. Joey Devine – If he becomes the closer, which he should, Ziegler doesn’t replace him at the number two spot.  I’d place Ziegler further down the list.  Devine’s 2009 projections can also be found at the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jose Arredondo -  I don’t think Arredondo is a necessary handcuff for Fuentes owners.  I think Fuentes will be fine and I think Shields might step in for him even if he’s not fine.  Arredondo can be worthwhile to own anyway.  2009 Projections:  5-2/2.25/1.00/60, 20 Holds

4. J.J. Putz – He didn’t rank higher for me because I have no idea how he’ll react to being a setup man instead of a reliever.  I think he’ll be fine, but we shall see.  2009 Projections:  6-2/3.00/1.20/75, 15 Holds and 7 Saves

5. Hideki Okajima – Since the Japanese have their last names first, does that mean there’s a better chance Hideki Okajima and Hideki Matsui are related than Hideki and Kaz Matsui?  2009 Projections:  5-1/2.75/1.15/60, 24 Holds

6. Scott Downs – A lefty that can get out righties equals a guy who can find work even in a recession.  (Speaking of the recession, it feels like yesterday that everyone was randomly buying stocks simply because they started with an “e” — eToys, eTrade, eBay. The stock symbol is ERR?  That sounds wonderful!  Give me 500 shares!  Then, I got to the point where I bought shares just because I was hungry.  Give me 1000 shares of Boston Market and a breast and a thigh!  The moral of this story?  Don’t buy stocks on an empty stomach.  But I detour.)  2009 Projections:  4-5/2.50/1.20/60, 25 Holds

7. Scot Shields – Any true connoisseurs of middle relievers have owned Shields at least once in their fantasy baseball playing days.  His ranking now is more dependent on consistency, Ks and Holds than on his ratios helping you as much. 2009 Projections:  4-3/4.00/1.30/70, 27 Holds

8. Rafael Perez – Something happens to Wood, Perez might fall into the closing job.  2009 Projections:  3-3/3.50/1.15/70, 22 Holds

9. Matt Thornton – His K/9 rate is purdy.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.15/1.10/75, 17 Holds

10. Dan Wheeler – When Percival accidentally steps on his glasses like Burgess Meredith in that Twilight Zone episode, Wheeler will step in.  He’s a good MR and a very good handcuff.  2009 Projections:  3-2/3.50/1.05/50, 12 Holds and 15 Saves

11. Grant Balfour – Don’t think Balfour steps in for Percy as often as Wheeler.  2009 Projections:  5-2/3.00/1.15/75, 22 Holds

12. Octavio Dotel – Strikes out a lot hitters and gives up a lot of home runs.  It’s like he only pitches to Dunn or Cust.  Hey, if Dunn and Cust are dining together and neither wants the reservation under their name they can leave it under K. Dunnst.  2009 Projections:  2-5/3.95/1.20/90, 20 Holds

13. Cory Wade – In the most random prediction of the 2009 preseason, I’m going to say Wade leads the NL in Holds.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  2009 Projections:  5-4/3.15/1.10/55, 30 Holds

14. Tony Pena – Pena always ranks up the Holds and might be a challenger for Cory Wade in the race for the most boring preseason prediction of NL Holds leader.  2009 Projections: 5-3/3.50/1.25/55, 25 Holds

15. Jon Rauch – I like Qualls for cheap saves in 2009, but you just never know when a guy gets the job for the first time.  His leash is usually a lot shorter.  I think Rauch would be his handcuff over Pena.  2009 Projections:  2-2/3.50/1.20/65, 20 Holds

16. Hong-Chih Kuo – If Broxton proves to be a Cuddle Boy then Kuo may end up with some saves too.  I don’t think Broxton will end up that way.  It’s a Cust Kayin’ scenario.  2009 projections:  4-2/3.25/1.15/65, 15 Holds

17. Damaso Marte – My favorite title I wrote last year?  Glad you asked.  I like this one.  Feel free to search the site and find your own favorite.  Anyway, I wouldn’t own Marte outside of Holds leagues, but in Holds leagues he’s in a good spot to accumulate some.  2009 Projections: 4-5/4.15/1.24/65, 25 Holds

18. Joel Zumaya – His walks and Guitar Hero skills worry me.  2009 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.35/55, 15 Holds

19. Rafael Betancourt – Cuddle Boy.  2009 Projections:  Great MR numbers,

20. Kyle McClellan – He’s only here because he recorded 30 Holds last year.  I don’t think he approaches that number this year, but LaRussa always manages to get some “6th starter” a lot of Holds.  Pay close attention to who LaRussa’s abusing this year.  2009 Projections:   Holds, dawg.

After the top 20 middle relievers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:

Taylor Buchholz – I have my doubts about his breakout in two-oh-oh-eight and this is one MR I worry about  (that’s not worrying about an MRI, for those quick readers).  2009 Projections:  2-3/3.25/1.18/50, 20 Holds

J.P. Howell – Really came into his own out of the bullpen.  If only Thurston and Lovey lived long enough to see their son’s success.  2009 Projections:  3-1/3.25/1.18/80, 17 Holds

Usually a pitcher’s third season in the bigs is the year they truly break out. Another factor to look for is their BB/9, is it trending downwards? Another factor, is K/9 trending upwards? WHIP heading down? Innings aren’t piling on too fast? ERA, while not really a great stat, is it heading down? BABIP fine? On a team that can win some games? Check. Check. Check. Double check. Check. Yup. Oh, yeah. Uh-huh and you betcha. I might sound flippant at times, but I’m not shooting from the hip. And definitely no hip shooting, when I pegged Rich Hill as a breakout for the 2008 season. Hill had my faith. All of the data I looked at told me to ignore his spring training mechanics issue. He would figure it out. According to WebMD, Rich Hill came down with Ankielitis. A rare condition when stats don’t matter nearly as much as a psychiatrist’s opinion. He is a shook one. Maybe Greinke can sponsor him on his road back from his ‘psyche ache.’ Until then, I suggest you drop Hill in all but the deepest of leagues. I’m holding onto him right now in a NL-Only league. In all other leagues, I’ll be cutting ties. Goodbye, Hill. Oh, yeah, goodbye to Gallardo, as well. His injury isn’t the kind he’s going to come back from any time soon. You should cut ties with him in all one year leagues. That’s if you’re paying attention. (I hate people who abandon teams. But then you wouldn’t be reading this if you abandon teams, unless you just like to be contrary.) To replace Hill and/or Gallardo, I’m looking at these guys (obviously depends on league depth): Shawn Hill, Jeremy Guthrie, Jon Lieber, Tom Gorzelanny (extremely high risk, and I wouldn’t start him until he shows he can be decent), Mark Buehrle (not an every start starter), Jo-Jo Reyes (high risk, high reward), Jason Schmidt (looking for a late-May/early-June return, expect setbacks), Braden Looper (not an every start starter) and Aaron Laffey (probably loses his starting job when Westbrook returns). All and all… Ugh. But the show must go on. Anyway, here’s what I saw yesterday:

Taylor Buchholz – Now setting up Fuentes. I picked him up in a NL-only league and got a random save. Hey, if you’re trolling for MRs, you can do worse.

Aaron Laffey – Sometimes teams don’t have scouting reports on guys and they sneak through. Consider Laffey a sneaker at this point.

Mike Jacobs – I tried to trade him for Saito in one league. (The team announced they were punting saves and I figured I’d make a run at their only closer.) Anyway, I was denied. Hey, if you hit on enough girls, eventually you get laid. I think this non-trade could end up benefiting me in the end. That’s if Jacobs’s finger holds up.

Nick Markakis – Hit his six out of the parkakis on Sunday and he’s a second half hitter.

Kenny Rogers – Yesterday, I watched some Baseball Tonight for the first time all year. (They should consider hiring a homeless person to dress as Kruk and dole out some insight. Ravich, “Kenny Rogers can still get out of jams.” Homeless Kruk, “I urinate in public!”) The reason why I mention this because now on Baseball Tonight they highlight someone from each team in their “Fantasy Impact” section. (Maybe this is an old feature, but I don’t usually watch Baseball Tonight. I just watch the games.) So in their Fantasy Impact section for the Twins/Tigers game, who do they focus on? Cabrera? Morneau? Gomez? Sheffield? Any hitter on either team? Nope, Kenny Rogers. I kid you not. They run his line like this is helpful to someone. Outside of AL-Only leagues, is he even on anyone’s team? I think I’m getting an ulcer. Thanks, Baseball Tonight!

Joe Saunders – Kruk, “Give up solo home runs. That’s what great ones do.” Somewhere Bert Blyleven is smiling. Anyway, Saunders shouldn’t have won this game. He was very hittable.

Carlos Ruiz – Hit a home run on Sunday. Another preseason fave of mine that fell out of favor, but maybe he can get hot. If you’re still looking for a catcher, there’s still plenty of time left in the season to turn things around.

Santiago Casilla - Still no runs given up. I don’t think he reaches Orel’s record 59 scoreless innings, but he got a vulture win yesterday. Ya know, every little bit helps.

Melky Cabrera – Leads the Yankees in home runs. I think Arod might have something to say about that by the end of the year.

Robinson Cano – Sunday home run. I think you still can buy low on him, but you better act fast.

German Duran – Hit a home run as he filled in for Kinsler yesterday, but he could get time at third with Blalock on the DL (Blalock on the DL? No way!). Duran went 22/11 in Double A last year. Cust kayin’.

Jack Cust – Speaking of which, he hit another home run. He goes on streaks where you wonder why he isn’t owned on 100% of teams. Then he gets cold and you wonder why you ever picked him up. Ride the hot streak.

Chone Figgins – Looks like he might be headed to the DL, which will be a good thing rather than him sit on the bench for two weeks and hinder your ability to fill in for him.

Ian Stewart – I now have him in three leagues. I’ll probably drop him by next Sunday, but the Rockies are a bit of a mess right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if they call Stewart up sooner rather than later. If they don’t call him up, you drop him. No harm, no foul. I know you’re probably excited about the prospects of having Eric Hinske on your bench all week, but why not pick up Stewart? Are you afraid of success? Winning got you down?

Tony Pena Jr. – Hillman gave Pena 27 days to get himself straight or Callaspo gets the start.  Considering Pena has a .252 career average in seven minor league seasons, I’d say he’s probably had enough time to prove himself. Pena, don’t go away mad, just go away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – I’ve never seen someone get so many empty lines. He has more 0-for-4s than Robert Downey Jr. has drug relapses (BTW, Thought Iron Man was entertaining if uneven. What I don’t get is why was Paltrow in this movie? Who likes her besides Chris, Apple and Moses? She really makes my skin crawl. Why can’t Mila Kunis be in every movie that needs to have, like, a girl? Kunis could’ve pulled this role off even if it does seem like she’s coked out of her mind all the time. That would’ve at least made for an interesting subtext with Bob Downey. Like when are they going to stick needles in each other’s veins? Which reminds me, for a few of those early scenes when Downey’s partying I couldn’t help but think, “Not only was he partying like this for real, but he was probably doing it while getting a hummer from Anthony Michael Hall.”)

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – He’s starting two days then Laird for two days. Best platoon ever for fantasy baseball purposes. You know exactly when to start him. I have Navarro and Salty switching out in one league, so far 6-for-14 with 2 RBIs.

Scott Kazmir – Returns to take a four inning dump. Wasn’t a fan coming into the season, and I’m still not. I’d see what I can get for him in a trade.

Mike Cameron – Hit two home runs. No reason why he can’t do his uze — 20/20, .250.

Eric Gagne – Pre-steroids testing — 84 consecutive saves. After steroids testing — 25 saves and a plus 5 ERA. Weird!

Hunter Pence – I wasn’t that high on Pence coming into the year, but he has three home runs in three games. You know, um, consecutively.

Greg Smith – At this point, I’d use him in mixed leagues (especially for his next start against the Rangers), but I wouldn’t bet that this streak of excellent pitching will last. I think he’s another sneaker.

Aaron Cook – I can’t imagine anyone’s trading for a Rockies pitcher, but if you have him I’d see what you can get.

Ryan Zimmerman – Sat for the first time in 205 games. He insists that he didn’t sit because he’s batting .217/3/14. I insist he’s an effin’ liar.

Evan Longoria – I think there’s probably a more reliable (read: boring) option on your waivers. Upside’s cool and all, but in one year leagues I’d prefer Zimmerman. And I don’t like Zimmerman. Maybe someone’s fed up in your league with Zimmerman and would like some Longoria.

Tim Redding – If picking up Redding causes you to get an erection for longer than four hours, you should see a doctor, but NL-Only owners could do worse.