Fantasy Baseball Advice

Arizona Going Nutsy, Checking Rivera’s Paperwork

May 18, 2010 By: Grey Category: Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 119 Comments →

Saul Rivera, who is surprisingly not related to Eli Whiteside, was acquired by the Diamondbacks.  Big shakes, huh?  Yeah, Rivera could get into the mix for saves.  Another potential candidate for saves is… Wait for it… Here it comes… It’s here somewhere… Where are my notes… Oh, here they are… That’s my freakin’ shopping list, and I didn’t even spell minestrone right… Oh, here… Aaron Heilman!  Not sure how the D-Backs are going to have a bullpen of Saul and Heilman.  Sounds like the outtakes for Schlinder’s List.  Saul walks 3 batters and turns the game over to Heilman.  Heilman enters and says, “I pardon you, Saul.”  Heilman will probably get exploited for being, well, not so good and having small fingers, but Qualls is close to getting removed from the closer role.  Right now, Heilman’s the setup man and he gave up a run yesterday.  The Diamondbacks also dropped Bob Howry.  Why?  Because.  Oh, and there’s Juan Gutierrez.  That’s not a closerousel, THIS IS A CLOSEROUSEL!  I’d own Qualls and Heilman.  Gutierrez and I, we’re like Kramer vs. Kramer and Juan just let our kid fall from the jungle gym.  He’ll be scarred for life!  And never be in another film.  As for Saul Rivera, I’ll get my lox from somewhere else.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Edwin Jackson – 8 IP, 0 ER, 6 baserunners, 12 Ks.  Hey, it’s the old Edwin Jackson!  Actually, the old Edwin Jackson was floundering for a few years with the Rays.  Hey, it’s the relatively new Edwin Jackson!  Well, actually, Edwin hasn’t been good at all this year.  Hey, it’s the newer than old, older than new Edwin Jackson!  That has a good ring to it.  I don’t think Edwin’s turned a corner.  I think the Marlins are just the 2nd easiest team to strikeout after the Diamondbacks.

Mark Reynolds – Mini Donkey was out of the lineup with the flu.  Big Donkey, Adam Dunn, was also out with the flu.  They must not have been in-donk-ulated.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Bad year to be an M.I.C (Middle Infield Cabrera).  EverCab already spent time on the DL and now Ass-Cab will be out for a while with a broken arm.  (BTW, how do you go from a Whore-Ram (Horacio Ramirez) to a Man-Ram (Manny Ramirez)?  You take an Ass-Cab.)  Asdrubal was driven off the field in a cart that beeped with a sad trombone.  He’s not coming back any time soon.  My guess is at least two months on the DL.

Luis Valbuena – And Jason Donald will fill in for Asdrubal.  As of right now, they’re only worth owning in AL-Only leagues.  Donald is a bit more interesting, but it depends on how much time he’ll see.  If he gets every day ABs, he could surprise with some very light pop and speed.

Grady Sizemore – CBS Sportsline, which is a sad, sad site, said, “Gimpy Sizemore sits out.”  That nickname works for me.

Ryan Howard – 3-for-5, 6 RBIs and his 7th homer.  He has 13 days left of May.  How many homers will he have on June 1st?  13?  14?

Travis Snider – To the DL with a strained wrist.  If he had a strained groin with his strained wrist, I wouldn’t shake his hand.  DL him if you can, Snider will be back.

Nick Johnson – Having surgery on his wrist, out until July.  Hold on, July’s on the phone.  Turns out Johnson’s not returning until September.

Jeff Francoeur – Out of the lineup for two straight days.  I.e., Frenchy’s on the benchy.

Mike Pelfrey – 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  After getting roughed last week vs. the Nats, he looked better, but still not dominant against a team whose offense is relying on Eric Hinske.

Hanley Ramirez – Left the game with a sore ankle.  Sore ankle is shorthand for Hanley didn’t hustle after a ball and Fredi Gonzalez lost his shizz and pulled him from the game.

Randy Wells – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I’m beginning to think I’m John Cusack with how much I’m liking Randy Wells this year.  Wells has been unlucky and his ERA is still only at 4.13.  I’m not a fan of his next start though.  Oh, Wells.

Aramis Ramirez – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs and a home run.  It was almost called a double when it hit a pig flying by.

Corey Patterson – 1-for-2, 3 Runs and 2 steals.  Corey’s the type to steal 10 bases in a month.  SAGNOF!

Gio Gonzalez – 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners (4 BBs) and 4 Ks vs. a team he should’ve wiped the mat with King Kong Bundy-style.  Okay for matchups (like his next one), but his walks are a bit out of control.

Jose Lopez – 2-for-4, and a steal.  As bad as he’s been, he’s still been hitting lefties, which he’ll get four more of this week.

Ian Desmond – 4-for-4, 1 Run, no Steals, no RBIs, no s’s, no g’s.  Gotta be honest, he’s one of the more yawnstipating players I own.  Do something, man!  Hit a homer, steal a base, something!

Alcides Escobar – Stole his first base of the year.  Now only needs one more steal to tie Lou Marson.

Corey Hart – 3-for-4, 2 homers.  Now has 7 homers, 3 steals and a .287 average.  Has 4 homers in the last 4 games.  Maybe he finally took those stupid sunglasses off.  Worth owning in all leagues while he’s hitting.

Johnny Cueto – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Now has an ERA of 3.67 on the year.  Gets the Indians next time out.  The Indians suck.  You do the math!

Jonny Gomes – Hit another homer.  I wonder if when a Reds player says, “Yo, Jonny” if they also say, “Sans H,” so Cueto doesn’t look.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 5 Ks and a 2.94 ERA on the year.  Hodgepadre!

Kevin Slowey – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners, 2 Ks.  No walks, but that was only because the Blue Jays never saw a pitch they didn’t like.  To give you an idea of how mediocre this start was, during the better part of the telecast all Blyleven kept talking about is how Slowey doesn’t look right.  Even Roy Smalley got in the act.  Though I’m not sure what Roy Smalley knows about pitching except how not to hit it.

Jose Bautista – Hit his 11th homer yesterday.  At this point, I’m surprised he hit only one in this game.

Wandy Rodriguez – 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 1 K.  Wasn’t a great start.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he’s not 100% healthy.

John Ely – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 8 Ks.  He’s now only walked 3 guys (1 intentional) in 25 and 2/3 innings and has a 3.51 ERA with a 0.94 WHIP.  Yes, you should own him.

Javier Vazquez – Got the win vs. the Red Sox!  Sure, he only pitched one-third of an inning, but baby steps.

Victor Martinez – 2-for-4, 2 solo homers as the Sawx and Yanks combined for 7 homers.  What is everyone doing at Yankee Stadium?  Is it the Macarena?  The Electric Slide?  No, it’s The Jetstream!

Mike Napoli – Hit one home run yesterday and hit another fly ball that just missed going out by about one and half David Ecksteins.  After Napoli returned to the dugout, Scioscia gave him the half head nod that the crusty vet gives the young upstart in all those sports movies.  I dropped some schmohawk catcher for Napoli in one of my leagues.

Derek Holland – 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 3 Ks.  I might sound like an apologist, but this start was better than how the line looks.  Holland had a no-hitter into the 5th inning until Juan Rivera hit an infield single that should’ve been an error then Napoli followed with the homer.

Hank Blalock – 2-for-5 with an RBI as he hit 5th.  It’s not an endorsement.  It’s a Cust kayin’.

Billy Butler – 2-for-4, 2 RBIs as he hit one WTF (Warning Track Fly).  Butler did take care of the game-winning rally.  Know how Butler starts rallies?  By burning his bra.

Closer Look

May 11, 2009 By: Grey Category: Closers 156 Comments →

In this month’s closer look, let’s discuss some closer trading strategy.  As I mentioned the other day, I traded Street and some other closer for Haren.  This might’ve put me at a disadvantage for saves.  Now you’re probably thinking what the eff?  This doode doesn’t even know who he traded or if it put his team at a disadvantage for saves.  Well, that’s the whole point.  Saves are the easiest commodity to acquire on waivers.  Just last month, 10 closers lost their jobs, even if just temporarily.  10 out of 30 closers.  So, frankly, I don’t care if I’m trading Qualls, Bell or schmohawk closer behind door number 3.  Are some of these guys more reliable than others?  Sure, but that doesn’t mean Jenks couldn’t have a meltdown tomorrow.  They’re just closers.  As for not knowing if I’m at a disadvantage, it’s real early and plenty more saves will come into the league.  Not that many more Harens are coming into the league.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Jonathan Broxton (+4) (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
4. Francisco Rodriguez (+1) (J.J. Putz)
5.
Bobby Jenks (+3) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

6. Brad Lidge (-2) (Ryan Madson)
7. Mariano Rivera (-2) (Jonathan Albaladejo, Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte)
8. Heath Bell (+3) (Mike Adams)
9. Frank Francisco (+5) (C.J. Wilson)
10. Chad Qualls (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
11. Francisco Cordero (+4) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
12. Brian Fuentes (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
13. Kerry Wood (-5) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
14. Kevin Gregg (-1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Brian Wilson (+4) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
16. Ryan Franklin (+9) (Chris Perez, Jason Motte, Kyle McClellan)
17. Mike Gonzalez (Rafael Soriano)
18. Fernando Rodney (+11) (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Brandon Lyon)
19. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

20. Matt Capps (-5) (John Grabow)
21. Trevor Hoffman (+7) (Carlos Villanueva, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
22. Huston Street (Manny Corpas)
23. Troy Percival (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
24. Brandon Morrow (+3) (David Aardsma, Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero)
25. LaTroy Hawkins (-15) (Jose Valverde)
26. Scott Downs (B.J. Ryan, Jason Frasor)
27. Andrew Bailey (-9) (Brad Ziegler, Michael Wuertz, Santiago Casilla)
28. Juan Cruz (-11) (Joakim Soria, Jamey Wright, Kyle Farnsworth)
29. George Sherrill/Chris Ray/Jim Johnson (-1)
30. Kip Wells/Joel Hanrahan (-9) (Julian Tavarez, Saul Rivera, Natalie from The Facts of Life)

Closer Look

April 02, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Fantasy Baseball Draft 85 Comments →

It’s time to take our beginning of the month look at all the fantasy baseball closers.  Here at Razzball we are always evolving like Saaphyri’s alliance on I Love Money 2, so I’ve added pluses and minuses in parenthesis for the movement a closer has had since the last time I went over them.  For example, if B.J. Ryan fell twelve spots from 10 to 25, he has a parenthetical negative fifteen next to his name.  If there was no change, no parenthetical.  I also removed the team they close for, because if you don’t know that, I’m not sure how much I can help you.  More than anything else, the closer list is constantly changing.  So you kinda need to follow along to my daily roundups, but if you like to have things all in one place, here ya go.  Anyway, here’s all of the closers for your fantasy baseball team, as of right now:

$12 Salads

You know that restaurant your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? Every time you go there, you have a thoroughly solid meal. No complaints, except you just paid $12 for a salad when you could’ve went to McDonald’s and stuffed you and your woman for ten schmools and had $2 in quarters left over to make the hotel bed vibrate. These closers are $12 salads.

1. Joe Nathan (+1) (Jesse Crain)
2. Jonathan Papelbon (-1) (Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima)
3. Brad Lidge (Ryan Madson)
4. Mariano Rivera (Damaso Marte)
5. Francisco Rodriguez (J.J. Putz)
6. Joakim Soria (Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth)

Donkey-corns

Imagine you’re following a donkey, who’s wearing a wool cap, through a desert for 1700 miles. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. Does the donkey talk? Yes. Yes, he does talk. So when you and the donkey in the wool cap arrive at his destination, he removes his the wool cap to reveal a horn. The donkey is a unicorn and his gift to you for your trust is saves. These closers are Donkey-corns.

7. Jonathan Broxton (Hong-Chih Kuo, Cory Wade)
8. Bobby Jenks (+1) (Octavio Dotel, Matt Thornton, Scott Linebrink)
9. Kerry Wood (+3) (Jensen Lewis, Rafael Perez, Rafael Betancourt)
10. Jose Valverde (+3) (LaTroy Hawkins)
11. Chad Qualls (+3) (Jon Rauch, Tony Pena)
12. Heath Bell (+4) (Mike Adams)
13. Brian Fuentes (-2) (Jose Arredondo, Scot Shields)
14. Kevin Gregg (+1) (Carlos Marmol)
15. Frank Francisco (+6) (C.J. Wilson)
16. Matt Capps (+2) (John Grabow)
17. Francisco Cordero (-9) (David Weathers, Jared Burton)
18. Mike Gonzalez (+2) (Rafael Soriano)
19. Brad Zielger (Santiago Casilla, Joey Devine)
20. Brian Wilson (-3) (Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry)
21. Joel Hanrahan (Saul Rivera, Steven Shell)

Brain Freeze

I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas and Troy Percival– Wait, he just gave up 12 earned runs and hit Pena in the head with a pickoff throw. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following closers at your own risk.

22. Matt Lindstrom (+2) (Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor)
23. Huston Street (+6) (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
24. Troy Percival (+4) (Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour)
25. B.J. Ryan (-15) (Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson)
26. Jason Motte (-1) (Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan)
27. George Sherrill (-1) (Chris Ray)
28. Brandon Morrow (+2) (Miguel Batista, Chad Cordero, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe)
29. Carlos Villanueva (-2) (Trevor Hoffman, Todd Coffey, David Riske)
30. Fernando Rodney/Brandon Lyon (-6) (Ryan Perry, Joel Zumaya, Axel Foley)

2009 Nationals Fantasy Baseball Preview

February 20, 2009 By: Grey Category: 2009 Team Preview 13 Comments →

We at Razzball realize that exporting our views across the country has damaging consequences on the blogosphere. To help make amends, we are reaching out to leading team blogs and featuring their locally blogged answers to pressing 2009 fantasy baseball questions regarding their team. We feel this approach will be fresher, more sustainable, and require less energy consumption (for us anyway). The 2009 Nationals Fantasy Baseball Preview comes courtesy of Fire Jim Bowden.

1) Which Bowden Fluffer are you the most excited about? And what do you expect from them in 2009?

Elijah Dukes. He has tremendous plate discipline for a player his age, very good on-base skills, and tremendous power. He gets a lot of negative press because of his track record, but from what we’ve seen in DC he’s been a good teammate and frankly pretty close to a model citizen. I’m more concerned about his ability to stay healthy than anything. In 2009, I think a .260 / .360 / .470 line is a totally reasonable projection, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him beat that by 20 points in each category. If he stays healthy and gets 500 ABs, I think we’ll see 30+ homers, 100+ RBI, and an all-star game appearance.

2) Ryan Zimmerman seemed poised for a 30/100 year until last year’s limp-wristed year. What’s your prediction for him in 2009?

Zimmerman started slow, which has become a typical occurrence for him, and then had a shoulder injury that cost him two months and sapped almost all of his power for the next month after that. He finally hit his first dinger after the injury on August 27, and from that game on he ripped a .325 / .381 / .553 line. He’s not that good, but that’s a hell of a month for anyone. So I’m ready to toss out his 2008 as an aberration. That said, he isn’t a 300 / 100 guy. He’s a .280 BA, 20-25 HR guy who shouldn’t be hitting higher than 6th for a good team. And he’s one of the best defensive 3Bs in baseball. And he’s only 25. That’s a very valuable package, but a lot of people expect more because Bowden (as is his wont) way overhyped him when he was drafted, with comps to Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. He always does that to players, and it’s so unfair. But whatever. This year I think CHONE’s projection for 2009 is a fair projection: 19 HR, 78 RBI, .289 BA / .364 OBP / .488 SLG. I’d be surprised if he did a lot better or worse than that, assuming he’s healthy.

3) Any optimism for the Nats staff? Any chance Scott Olsen or Daniel Cabrera are inspired by Obama and give us change we can believe in?

In a word, no. I dislike Scott Olsen as a player about as much as anyone in the Natmosphere. His K rates and velocity have been in free-fall. He’s gone from 8.27 K/9 in 2006 to 6.78 in ’07 to 5.04 in ’08, and he’s lost 3 mph off his fastball over that time. He’s a slight flyball pitcher also, and his command is ok but nothing fantastic. It’s just not a very good package. Last year he only survived in the Marlins’ rotation because of an unsustainably low .266 BABIP. Plus, he’s probably the worst teammate and one of the bigger head-cases in the league.

I don’t dismiss Cabrera’s chances quite as much as Olsen’s, but I don’t see him as anything more than a marginal fifth starter, and I don’t put any stock in his vaunted “upside.” He just can’t hit the strike zone–he improved slightly on his 5.11 career BB/9 last year, but at the same time his K/9 fell to 4.75. He’s just very hittable. Guys know he can’t get strikes with the slider and sit on his mistakes. A lot of people are putting stock in the move from the AL East, but it’s not like the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, and Braves are weak little sisters.

The team’s rap is that Olsen and Cabrera will be as good as Odalis Perez and Tim Redding but with upside. That’s poppycock. I actually would feel better about the team starting Jason Bergmann than either of these two, but Bowden’s hated him from the start, so that’s not going to happen. Frankly, I wouldn’t be at all suprised to see Olsen shipped off to Syracuse and Cabrera moved to the bullpen by the end of July.

4) Who gets more saves for the Nats in 2009? Hanrahanananan or Saul Rivera or wildcard?

Hanrahan will be the closer on Opening Day, and he’ll have to totally fall apart to lose the job. That could happen though. Last year was the first time in his pro career that he had any idea at all where the ball was going.

Rivera is an underappreciated gem. I know, middle relievers are pretty fungible commodities, but Rivera’s a groundball machine who never gives up the long ball and a total workhorse. I wanted him to close last year after the Rauch deal. But the team doesn’t see him as a closer because he doesn’t strike people out.

The wild card in my mind would be Garrett Mock. He should be given a shot at the rotation, but if he doesn’t get that he could be a back-end reliever. He’s been posting some very nice K-rates across every level since 2007, and last year he K-ed 10.1 per 9 in 41 MLB innings.

This team’s bullpen depth is really shaky. Who pitches the 7th inning for this team? Wil Ledezma? Jesus Colome? Steve Shell? Mike Hinckley? Nationals fans have been spoiled for years with stellar bullpens that have hidden our putrid rotations. That’s all over now. This year could be ugly.

I’d like to see Manny experiment with some less traditional bullpen usage this year. He doesn’t have any bullpen aces, so why not just play matchups? I don’t like the old Tony La Russa rigid 1-inning closer model anyway. But I’m not sure Manny has the vote of confidence from management that he’d need to push something so non-traditional.

One thing to watch is Chad Cordero. If he bounces back this year while the Nationals bullpen immolates, then you can go back to last July when Bowden humiliated Chief by announcing on sports talk radio 6 months before he had to that he’d be non-tendered without any notice to the player. Cordero said at the time that he was livid and unlikely ever to resign with the Nationals. Since then he’s been more forgiving, and he’s still out there, but I would be stunned to see him back, and I think the Nationals will miss him.

5) Your site is called Fire Jim Bowden. While Bowden certainly hasn’t distinguished himself as a GM, it is a tough economy and we hate to see someone unemployed. If no longer GM, what would you think would be a more suitable job for him?

He desperately craves the media spotlight, and although I find his personality grating I think he was a natural on Cold Pizza.

But if you’re asking about jobs in baseball, I think he would be a valuable asset as a scout. He has a decent eye for hitters, and there’s no question that he has a knack for finding useful role players in the major league trash heap. But that’s not nearly enough to build a winner, and he has no capacity whatsoever to think long-term and stick to a plan. Any fantasy baseball amateur could match his performance drafting pitchers. He doesn’t care a lick about defense. He’s literally never drafted a middle infielder who’s gotten so much as a cup of coffee in the majors ever. So I wouldn’t want him in charge of scouting and development, but if he was just a roving advance scout with a focus on finding young toolsy bats and undervalued veterans working for a guy like Jack Zduriencik or Pat Gillick he could contribute.