Fantasy Baseball Advice

Alexei has a new comrade with Dayan Viciedo being called up by the White Sox.  He’s the Latin 20, Cuban defector that has 240 pounds of baby fat, if, in fact, he is a baby.  As I said back last November, “What I’d really like to see is a major leaguer go to Cuba to play.  Kevin Youkilis grows out his beard another five inches, jumps in a raft and paddles to Havana.  He tears up the Cuban Leagues on a steady diet of fastballs and plantains.”  Wait, that quote had nothing to do with Dayan.  Oh, here’s the quote, “In his first year of the minors at Double-A, he had a .317 OBP with 89 Ks to 23 walks.  He can probably have success with this approach, because he do what he do.  His line drive percentages went up in the 2nd half of the year, showing he was making better contact.”  And that’s me quoting me!  This year in Triple-A, he made progress.  In 238 ABs, 30/14/34/.290/1.  His Ks are still out of control with 52 in 62 games.  Because of his position eligibility (3rd base, Serch), I grabbed him in a few leagues.  I’d expect decent power (15 homers) and a mediocre average (.250) with little to no speed.  On rookie 3rd basemen pickups, he’s below Pedro Alvarez for right now.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark Buehrle – 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 baserunners, 6 Ks vs. the Pirates.  That’s nice, now do it against a major league team.

John Ely – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 11 baserunners, 3 Ks as he was pitchslapped by Bronson Arroyo.  Wait, wasn’t Torre supposed to skip Ely for two weeks?  You’re the Hall of Fame manager, Torre?  Don’t listen to me telling you to start him!  Well, you and Ely had a good run.  You can put your photos in a scrapbook and drop him to waivers now.

Joey Votto – 2-for-4 with his 14th home run and he’s Canadian so you know he can quote Bob and Doug McKenzie.

Bronson Arroyo – 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 baserunners, 1 K.  He’ll be in this afternoon’s Buy/Sell.  But don’t just go to the homepage, staring at it while you wait for the new post.  You’ll end up looking like our 7th Vice President, John C. Calhoun.

Ryan Spilborghs – Hit his 7th homer as he got the start vs. a lefty, but homered off a righty.  Weird!  Spilborghs is a decent enough pickup in deep leagues while he’s hitting, but you need to be able to sit him when he’s not playing.

Ubaldo Jimenez – 8 IP, 1 ER, 10 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Ubaldo never sleeps, better slip him an Ambien.

Ian Stewart – Trouble in the Mini Mini Donkey stable.  Mora’s started for two straight days.  Well, that’s actually the good news because Mora’s crizzap.  I’m hoping Stewart gets things started again in the upcoming homestand, if not then I’m the Native American watching someone litter.  Or a Na’vi.  What an allegory!

Adam Dunn – Speaking of Donkeys, Big Donkey just hit his 16th homer and he’s hitting .288.  Aren’t you glad you avoided him because of the whole average drain thing?  Donkeys have a word for people like you, “Human.”

Geovany Soto – 2-for-3 with a .417 OBP and scored the winning run.  Nice that the Cubs could squeeze out the victory without Koyie Hill’s big bat.  Phew, huh?

Randy Wells – 7 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 6 Ks.  This comes after the Cubs tried to change his pregame routine.  Guess the whole chanting, “I suck,” followed by ramming his head into the locker wasn’t working.  I love Wells long time, but this is only one start in a slew of crapfests.  Would like to see one more before giving him another chance.

Jeremy Bonderman – 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 baserunners, 7 Ks.  I’d look about a dozen places before picking up Bonderman, but he does get the Mets in Metco next, so there’s that.

Chipper Jones – Announced he might retire after this season.  Is he beta-trialing an osteoporosis drug?

Tim Hudson – 7 IP, 1 ER, 8 baserunners, 5 Ks.  In 92 1/3 IP, he has 41 Ks and 34 BBs.  If he keeps this up, the Fangraphs database is going to commit hari-kari.

James Shields – 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 baserunners, 3 Ks with a 4.55 ERA on the year.  Nice to see he’s completely unownable like I thought he would be in the preseason.  As the German rappers say, schadenfreude, snitches!

Aaron Heilman – 1 IP, 2 ER.  Maybe we should just start blaming the Diamondbacks closer spot.

Marco Scutaro – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs.  Now batting near .450 over the last week.  If you need average or Runs, MARCO… Scutaro…

Neil Walker – 2-for-4 with his second homer.  He’s batting .289 and has 2 steals.  In mixed leagues, that’s pretty yawnstipating.  In NL-Only leagues, that’s fire.

R.A. Dickey – 6 IP, 2 ER, 9 baserunners, 7 Ks.  Doesn’t he sound like a place where you’d buy mittens?  Come down to R.A. Dickey’s and with every purchase we’ll throw in a free pair of mittens!  *in a fast voice*  Free mittens are subject to individual R.A. Dickey store policy.  Dickey’s a 35-year-old knuckler.  You think he’d find someone to do that for him.  Sure, 35 is only 23 in knuckleballer years, but you have to be real desperate to pickup a knuckleballer.  The pitch is too unpredictable for even the pitcher.  At any moment, he can blow up your ratios.  As they told you in parochial school, keep your hands off that Dickey.

Jason Bay – Out of the starting lineup with a charley horse.  What’s a charley horse with only 4 homers?  A Jackass.

The 27-year-old, no-name rookie, Daniel Nava, came out of nowhere, hitting a grand slam on the first major league pitch he saw.  This all came after not making his college team, working as their equipment manager, finally playing college ball, going undrafted in the major league draft then being cut by the Chico Outlaws, which I believe is the minor league affiliate for Chico’s Bail Bonds.  Even his ESPN player photo makes it seem like he was in the Witness Protection Program.  Shoot, maybe he is.  If so, I hope Hermida starts his car for him.  Eventually, Nava caught on with the Outlaws, impressed the Sawx and the rest is history.  Nava is old for a rookie and his success at the majors may be short-lived, but he showed a good eye in the minors with modest pop.  He could be a flash-in-the-pan, but he’s worth grabbing in AL-Only leagues and monitoring in mixed leagues.  He may get bumped when Ellsbury returns and then it’s back to egg noodles and ketchup.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Josh Beckett – Played catch from 90 feet.  Guess when he returns he’s going to pitch from 2nd base.

Stephen Strasburg – 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 baserunners (5 BBs), 8 Ks.  Gave up only 2 hits, one of them was him getting Pronk’d in the 2nd inning.  As I’ve been saying, his hype is over his value right now.  On a related note, I wonder what the Nats TV ratings look like when Strasburg leaves the game.  Probably a similar ratings plunge to when LC left The Hills.  Who are you, Kristin Cavallari?  I know Heidi Montag.  I know Brody Jenner.  I even know Justin Bobby.  I do not know, Kristin Cavallari.

Austin Jackson – Left the game with back spasms.  Could be a few days of no action Jackson.

Troy Tulowitzki – Out with a strained groin.  Or as they call in the Tulo household, a strained pipski.  Could be back by Tuesday.

Edinson Volquez – Barring any setbacks or an effective test for HGH, Volquez should be back just after the All-Star Break.  Definitely worth stashing if you have DL room.

Zack Greinke – 9 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 12 Ks and zero opportunities for the Royals bullpen to screw things up.

Joey Votto – 2-for-4 with 2 homers.  Now has 13 homers and 7 steals while batting .306.  Having exactly the kind of season you’d want from him and he hasn’t even had any prolonged hot streaks.  He’s going to be a good one for a long time.

Billy Butler – 4-for-5 with his 6th homer.  Or 3 homers per moob.

Garrett Jones – 2-for-4 and his 2nd homer in two games.  In the preseason, I told you to skip Butler and grab Robot Jones later on.  Right now, Robot has 10 homers and 5 steals while batting .274.  Since Butler couldn’t steal 5 bases in a slow pitch softball league, Jones has been more valuable, even if Butler has the bigger name recognition.

Raul Ibanez – Homer yesterday and now hitting .350 over the last week.  Ibanez, “Hello, Corner, I think I’m going to turn you.”  Corner, “About time.”

Jake Fox – Designated for assignment.  I don’t know what I’m going to do with all of these “Unathletic like a Fox” shirts.

Jorge Posada – Two games, two grand slams as the Yankees scored 22 runs in their three game sweep of the Astros.  Now the Orioles and the Astros have something to talk about on their date.

Delmon Young – 1-for-3 with his 8th homer and 3rd in the last week.  It feels like forever and 3 days ago when Young was a big-time prospect, but he’s still only 24 years old.  Grab while hot.

Kevin Slowey – 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 10 baserunners, 6 Ks.  Hey, Slowey, here’s a crazy thought, instead of giving up hits to everyone, how about you walk a few people?

Kris Medlen – 8 IP, 3 ER, 5 baserunners, 5 Ks.  Still hasn’t touched 100 pitches in a game, but has now thrown 5 solid starts in his last six.  Really should be owned everywhere…. Actually should’ve been owned for the last month.

Troy Glaus – 4-for-5, 2 homers.  I get the feeling people are waiting for the other shoe to drop with Glaus, but the only thing that really stood in his way was his health.  If he’s healthy, there’s no reason why he can’t hit 30 homers and .260.  Playing first could be the answer to his health woes.  Hey, maybe the Braves can let Glass Chipper simultaneously play first too.  It’s the WebMD defensive shift.

Tyler Colvin – 0-for-3.  Piniella said he wants to play Colvin more.  Steve Stone said, “Yeah, I thought so.”

Ted Lilly – 8 IP, 0 ER, 2 baserunners, 3 Ks.  Took a no-hitter into the 9th inning as Cubs fans’ brains were clouded with Pappas & beer.  Unfortunately, Pierre pulled a Joyce and singled up the middle.  Lilly has been terrific since he’s returned from the DL.  Hopefully, that jinxes him because I don’t own him anywhere.

Gavin Floyd – 8 IP, 1 ER, 6 baserunners, 9 Ks.  He was mentioned in the post of pitchers who should be better.  Hey, look at that.  He was.

Alcides Escobar – Wait a second… Are my eyes seeing right?  Alcides Escobar has stolen a base in each of the last two games.  Do you believe in miracles?!  Yes!

Prince Fielder – 2 homers, supposedly.  I think it was Corey Hart wearing a Professor Klump Halloween costume.

Colby Lewis – 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks as he wowed the crowd in this heated Brewers/Rangers rivalry.  Interleague fail.

Josh Hamilton – 2-for-4, 3 RBIs and his 15th home run.  Owning Hamilton is like holding your breath for 6 months.  Honestly, I’ve been trying not to talk too much about Hamilton this year because I own him on more teams than I want to admit and I don’t want to jinx him.  Just give me 500 ABs, Hamilton.  Please.

Julio Borbon – 2-for-5 while hitting 2nd and batting .500 over the last week.  He’s not racking up the steals, but he could steal 4 bases in a game any day now and be off and running.  Literally.

Mike Stanton – 2-for-2, 2 RBIs and his 2nd steal.  I think he could be a fantasy first rounder as soon as 2012.  This guy is ridiculously huge and he has speed.  He’s so big the television cameras film him at the plate like Al from The Naked Gun.  You know, the guy who’s head is out of the frame.

Sean Rodriguez – 3-for-3, 2 steals after appearing in Friday’s Buy/Sell, but you knew that already because you read the site.

Jeff Niemann – 6 IP, 5 ER.  Mmm… Sweet, sweet regression.

Jeff Suppan – Signed on with the Cardinals as Dave Duncan takes on his toughest challenge yet.

Chad Qualls – 1/3 IP, 2 ER.  Someone put him out of his misery.  Or put him in Misery by tying him to a bed and breaking his ankles.

Krispie Young – 3-for-5 and 2 Krispie flies.  Now has 12 homers on the year while hitting a respectable (for him) .277.  According to ESPN’s Player Rater, he’s had top 15 value for all outfielders so far.  I could see him putting it together and walking away with a 30/30 season.

Aubrey Huff – 2-for-4, 2 homers, batting .303 with 10 homers on the year.  Looking like a poor man’s Glaus a.k.a. matte.

Ryan Spilborghs – 3-for-5, 2 homers, hitting almost .700 over the last week as Seth Smith loses time even against righties.  Maybe Seth Smith slept with the Rockie manager’s daughter, Tracy Tracy.

Brandon Morrow is out indefinitely due to forearm soreness.  Punt!  I really liked Morrow going into this season.  There’s something to a reliever being converted to a starter in their first year.  They just get up for the challenge or something.  Whatever the case may be, Brandon doesn’t seem up for the challenge any morrow.  You don’t want to deal with this meshugas.  If it’s Ervin Santana, then you draft him later and hold out some hope.  If it’s a 4th to 5th starter (Morrow), why bother?  You wanna give to charity, the March of Dimes could use your help.  Or Jerry Lewis.  Anyway, here’s some other things I’ve seen so far in spring training regarding fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – He’s injured.  If I were a spiteful person, I would say it serves you right for drafting Mauer.  Not sure why anyone drafts this guy, but he’s struggling with a bulging disk — no, that’s not like when you tried to jam a CD into your radio and one was already there.  He’s not going to steal any bases this year, so you’re basically drafting a no-speed Polanco at catcher in the first 8 rounds.  Eh, you do what you do.  I’m done getting aggravated.

Manny Corpas – Would it surprise you to hear Huston Street is struggling with injuries and Corpas now can take over the closer’s role?  If it would surprise you, welcome to baseball.  See Wikipedia for further information.

Ryan Spilborghs – He’s pulling away in the race for the Rockies leadoff spot.

Tyler Walker – Might still be the answer for, “Who will get more than 15 saves this year for the Mariners?”

Jose Reyes – Will again be batting leadoff.  And this is the number one reason why I don’t put too much stock into spring training news.

Gaby Sanchez – He (she?) is doing nothing to win the 1st base job.  Bodes well for McPherson.

Chris Duncan – He’s winning an OF job for Saint Louie.  Now if he can just avoid his brother’s high-fives.

J.R. Towles – He took my vote of confidence in the catchers to target post last week and spat in its face.  He’s doing everything to lose the job.

Chipper Jones – Injured himself in the WBC.  And taco diarrhea still burns.

Even if you draft one or two outfielders in the top 100 (which you should), you’ll still need to identify some late bargains.   The top 20, 40, 60 and 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball can be found under the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings.  This is by no means all the outfielders I’d draft for one of my teams.  This is a list of guys that will go late and could provide some healthy returns.  Where applicable, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2009 projections.  Anyway, here’s some outfielders to target for 2009 fantasy baseball:

Colby Rasmus – Razzle-Dazzle, baby.  Razzle.  Dazzle.

Nelson Cruz – He’s never hit well in the majors for longer than a month.  He’s had lots of opportunities.  Might be the Ludwick pick of the draft or might be on waivers by the 2nd week in April.  Recognize!  Or don’t.  These are your decisions.

Cameron Maybin – Could be a cheap Victorino without the average.  Not a cheap Victorian, i.e. Is she using rat tails to tie up her bodice? Then again, perhaps Maybin is Carlos Lee with less power, more speed and no average.  Or he’s just Mike Cameron.

Fred Lewis – Giants hit him third in a spring training game.  Beans don’t burn on the grill!

Ryan Spilborghs – If he’s the starter then he deserves a spot on NL-Only teams, but I really wish he’d break something to open the door for Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Murton, Ian Stewart or…

Dexter Fowler – Should be the Rockies center fielder.  Will he?  Doubtful, but in keeper leagues, you should own him leaving your draft.

Franklin Gutierrez – The Big FraGu is going to get his chance to put up 15/15 numbers.

Delmon Young – It’s still very early in spring training and I try not to pay too much attention just yet to who’s hitting well, but Young is hitting well.

Shin-Soo Choo – Get on the Shin-Soo Choo train.

Elijah Dukes -  As long as he doesn’t flip out and prove Carl Jung right about aptronyms, you’ll be fine.  For what it’s worth, Carl Jung was never very good at fantasy baseball.

Justin Upton – I put him last because I want to highlight him.  Justin Upton could take the biggest jump of anyone on this list.  He has the potential to be a number two outfielder while being drafted as a four or a five.  His ceiling is, “Superstar.”

Here we are at the last of the 2009 fantasy baseball rankings before we get to the top 300 for 2009 fantasy baseball.  Some of these top 80 outfielders are really only worth owning in deep leagues or NL- or AL-Only leagues.  But in those leagues, they could make a big difference and could become fantasy relevant in more shallow leagues.  I probably won’t have a lot of these guys on any of my 12 team league teams, because I like to shore up OF earlier than these guys would be drafted, but that’s not to say I have no love for them.  Oh, I do.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball:

61. Adam Lind – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here to Hermida.  I call this tier, “Worth taking a shot on these guys very late.”  By the end of the year, Lind could be worth owning in all leagues.  That’s no idle compliment.  Man, you really know how to make a beanbag your own. That’s an idle compliment.  2009 Projections:  65/22/85/.275/3

62. Ryan Spilborghs – Spilborghs falls into the same camp as Denard Span for me.  I like him, but I kinda wish he’d fall down a staircase with sixty pounds of deer meat and open a spot for Fowler or Gonzalez.  The Rox are saying Spilborghs might be batting leadoff.  I’ve that’s true, it makes me almost as excited as Paula Abdul on any given Tuesday or Wednesday.  2009 Projections:  55/12/65/.300/12

63. Franklin Gutierrez – I’m a fan of The Big FraGu.  Decent shot at being a cheap source of 15/15.  Though he will hurt you a bit in average.  2009 Projections:  70/12/75/.260/16

64. Chase Headley – If he was playing anywhere but Petco, you would’ve already read numerous articles on him.  Definitely worth a real late flier in mixed leagues.  2009 Projections: 70/20/80/.280/8

65. Chris Dickerson – I loved Dickerson last year when he first came up.  I still do.  Temper expectations because Dusty does crazy things and Dickerson was playing a bit over his head batting average-wise in limited time last year.  2009 Projections:  55/15/50/.250/15

66. Michael Bourn – SAGNOF. 2009 Projections:  70/4/30/.240/40

67. Matt Joyce – Besides sounding like a 19^th Century poet, he could be this year’s Ludwick, who happens to sound like an 18^th Century composer.  It’s the classics!  2009 Projections:  70/22/85/.250

68. David Murphy/Marlon Byrd – Those in daily leagues could use these two as a righty/lefty platoon.  You “pfft” at me now, but together they could go… 2009 Combined Projections:  100/20/100/.285/10

69. Wladimir Balentien – Very similar to Matt Joyce on power potential with some speed, but he’s more raw.  Not to mention, Wladimir Balentien sounds like a cast member on The Real World:  Transylvania.  Wladdy B. always lets the dishes pile up in the sink! 2009 Projections:  60/22/65/.250/5

70. Travis Snider – Very young and raw, but there is some sweet, sweet upside here.  I already went over him in a Travis Snider 2009 fantasy outlook post.  2009 Projections:  50/12/60/.275

71. Chris Duncan – Plagued by back troubles because of years of getting high-fived by his brother, Shelley.  If healthy, Duncan might be worthwhile to platoon against righties.  2009 Projections:  55/17/60/.255/4

72. Matt Diaz – If you’re in daily leagues and you’re hurting at an OF spot, you should be platooning Diaz in when he faces lefties.  A fantasy platoon of him and Duncan could prove fruitful.  Or not.  These really are your choices.  2009 Projections:  45/10/50/.315/5

73. Jeremy Hermida – His prospect status was derailed by injuries.  If he can get back on track, he might be a sleeper.  Though there’s been absolutely no sign of him getting back on track.  2009 Projections:  70/20/70/.255/7

74. Jose Guillen – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Byrnes.  I call this tier, “Pass on these guys.”  There’s no point in grabbing one of these outfielders.  They’ll be on waivers at some point anyway.  If you’re choosing an outfielder this late in the draft, you may as well grab one that has upside.  Chances are the upside may not pan out, but if it does it could pay huge dividends.  These aging vets aren’t going to win you a league.  As for Guillen, only draft him if pouting is a category.  2009 Projections:  60/18/80/.265

75. Ty Wigginton – He had a really solid two months last year.  Do you remember where he was when he started on that two month tirade?  On waivers.  If you draft him, he’ll be there again.  2009 Projections:  60/20/65/.270

76. Aaron Rowand – I don’t want him in a 20 team league that uses only San Francisco Giants.  2009 Projections:  75/14/70/.265/6

77. Ryan Church – In his breakout pre-concussion season, he hit 12 HRs and batted .276.  C’mon, yawn with me.  2009 Projections:  60/14/65/.255/3

78. Eric Byrnes – He used his speed for a lot of his value and now he’s older and coming off leg injuries.  Bleh!  2009 Projections:  60/12/50/.255/12

79. Felix Pie – This is a the last tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “Fliers.”  Pie has done nothing to warrant this ranking, but, as I’ve said numerous times, when you’re this deep into a position, you take a flier.  Pee-ay is just that.  2009 Projections:  65/7/40/.250/20

80. Ben Francisco – He hit 15 HRs and stole 4 bases in 447 ABs last year, which sounds yawnstipating at best, until you realize he should be stealing 15 to 20 bags.  He might surprise with a 15/15 season.  2009 Projections:  70/17/70/.260/10 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 80 outfielders for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s a lot of names, but here’s two that stand out:

Carlos Gonzalez – Went over Car-Gonz when Holliday was shipped to the A’s.  In keeper leagues, I’d drop a buck to get him.  2009 Projections:  40/7/45/.260/10

Steve Pearce – On any team but the Pirates, I think he sees a lot of time.  It’s not that the Pirates are stacked.  They just make curious decisions… Rinku and Dinesh curious.  2009 Projections:  55/14/65/7/.260 (<– fairly optimistic, but whatevs)