Fantasy Baseball Advice

With great pride and bland post titling, I’d like to announce a Beta release of our fantasy baseball in-season player rater as well as two charts that highlight the differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and batter BABIP vs. AVG.

The player rater work is an adaptation of the Point Shares methodology I’ve used the last couple of years for pre-season and post-season player estimates.  Here is a link to a favorable test I did earlier this year vs. ESPN’s player rater methodology.  After some trial and error plus assistance from a variety of folks (Eric K at my favorite fantasy baseball escort service – EliteFantasyPlayers.com - and Doug at Dougstats.com among others), we now have a fairly automated system for updating in-season player rankings on a daily basis.

The Razzball Player rater is at –> Fantasy Baseball Player Rater and covers the following 5×5 league formats:

• ESPN Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
• Yahoo! Roster format (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/3 OF/2 UTIL/2 SP/2 RP/4 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team / 14 Team / 15 Team / 16 Team MLB
• AL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team
• NL-Only (2 C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) – 10 Team / 12 Team

The table is ranked based on a players’ projected Point Shares (a player’s value in standings points vs. the average player with some factoring in of position).  Dollar estimates are provided both for in-season as well as comparisons vs. pre-season estimates.  Take the dollar estimates with a grain of salt for now – they should become more stable as the season goes on.  You can filter by position (P for all pitchers, -P for all hitters) and sort by any of the columns (1 click ascending, two clicks descending).

There are two pages focused on popular hitter/pitcher stats outside of 5×5 (popularity based on our pre-season poll results).  These tables are filterable/sortable as well.

• Hitting – OBP, SLG, OPS, Hits, Total Bases
• Pitching – Quality Starts, Holds, Losses

Lastly, there are two tables that highlight differences between pitcher FIP vs. ERA and hitter BABIP vs AVG.

• The pitcher table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ pitchers – i.e. pitchers ranked in descending order based on the difference between their FIP and their ERA.  For those wondering why I chose FIP vs. xFIP, I do not have access to the league-average fly ball to home run ratio nor pitcher HR:FB ratio.  You may also find that my FIP estimates are slightly off from other sources – this is mainly because I cannot currently separate out intentional from non-intentional walks but it can also be due to how the ‘constant’ is applied to bring the league average FIP in the 3.20 range.
• The hitter table is sorted based on the ‘luckiest’ hitters - i.e. hitters ranked in descending order based on the difference between their current AVG and their expected AVG.  A hitter’s expected AVG is calculated by applying a hitter’s 3-year BABIP to their in-season performance.  3-year BABIP was used as this stat does vary per hitter based on various factors (line drive rate, their speed, GB to FB ratio, etc.) but a hitter’s BABIP tends to be steady in the long run.  Hitters with less than 100 AB in the previous 3 years are given the league average BABIP of .300.

I’ll do my best to keep these tables updated daily (generally by 10 AM EST).  The last column of each chart reflects the last games included so it will be transparent when it has not been updated for a couple days.  While I will do my best to keep on top of the moving pieces, please do not hesitate to provide the following information in the comments section of Grey and/or my posts:

• Any missing players from the tables (for now, I’m including any hitter/pitcher with 1+ AB or 0.1+ IP.  That minimum threshold will likely increase as the year goes on.
• Any position eligibility changes based on 10 game in-season eligibility (I know Yahoo! is 5 games but prefer to make one change across both).  For hitters where position eligibility seems imminent (e.g., Jesus Montero at catcher), I include the additional position and add an asterisk at the end of it.
• Any wonky data or functionality

Other potential FAQ:

• Will you ever have a ‘rest of season’ player rater?
• Maybe.  Would be dependent on a respected projection source providing an uploadable file that is 1) updated on a regular basis, 2) accounts for expected playing time, and 3) is free.
• Will you create a dynamic player rater to reflect any conceivable league format?
• Not planning on it.
• Was your wife turned on by this accomplishment?
• Nope.  She prefers it when I go Don Draper and fix shit around the house in a white t-shirt.

Positional weighting (aka ‘positional scarcity’ for fearmongers or fearophiles) in fantasy baseball is one of the most discussed and least understood variables when it comes to ranking players.  I have heard arguments ranging the whole gamut on how much a player’s value is impacted by their position – everything from ‘it means nothing’ to ‘it means everything.’

In my yearly review of my Point Shares methodology, I decided to test the underlying assumptions on positional weighting.  One advantage and burden of using a ‘methodology’ is that you have to make decisions on each variable.  If you rely on gut feel for player valuation, all variables are just blended together into one experience-honed calculator.  So you have both the benefit of never fretting about your underlying assumptions as well as the detriment of never testing and refining them.

For Point Shares, I’ve historically weighted hitters 75% vs. position and 25% vs. overall regardless of league format – e.g., a player’s value is based 75% on how he compares with the average drafted hitter at his position and 25% on how he compares with the average drafted hitter (regardless of position).  I hadn’t revisited it in recent years so it felt like an assumption worth testing.

To test it, I ran Point Shares against my projections for a 12-team mixed league (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P) using the following weights (positional/overall):  0/100, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25, 100/0.  I then averaged the differences in projected dollar value, adjusting it so 1B became the base (1B=0).  To translate the dollar figures into rounds, you can assume +/- $4 is a round in Rounds 1-3, +/- $3 a round in Round 4, and +/- $1 a round in Rounds 5-22.

For example, a 75/25 weight using Point Shares would value a player $10 more if he was a Catcher vs. a 1B, $7 more for a Catcher vs. an OF (10.1-3.2), etc.  From a snake draft perspective, that’s saying a top catcher (say Posey or Mauer) is 2-3 rounds more valuable than a 1B/OF with the same projected stats.  See below for the full chart:

* For a 2 Catcher league, the catcher adjustment would nearly double (75/25 goes to +19)

Armed with this data, Grey and I tested our ‘gut feel’ across a number of different scenarios – e.g., how much more is Youkilis worth as a 3B vs. 1B?, how much less is Posey worth if he just had 1B eligibility?  Before running the data, I assumed 75/25 would prove too high of an adjustment.  But after going over various mixed-league scenarios, we found that the 75/25 adjustments were most in line with our drafting experience.  There were about as many cases that we exceeded the 75/25 results as cases where we fell below it.  We generally agree that Youkilis is worth about $3 more (or an early round) as a 3B vs. 1B, Posey is worth about $10 more (potentially from 15th round to 5th round) as a catcher vs. a 1B, etc..  (Note:  For DH, I multiply the average 1B’s counting stats by 5%)

I tested this across 10-16 team mixed leagues and found that the 75/25 proved best across each format.  The dollar differences vary slightly but generally hold up since even 16 team leagues never really suffer from ‘scarcity.’  There are always free agents available who are clearing a projected 400+ ABs.  The point where ‘scarcity’ plays a big role is AL/NL-only when you run out of starting players and delve into players at 300 and less ABs.

This scarcity is felt across all positions in AL/NL-only and it was therefore not surprising when I found out how little positional weights matter in these formats.  There were only two real impacts of the positional weights when I tested the 0/100, 25/75, 50/50, 75/25, 100/0 scenarios:  1) 1Bs lose about $1 every 25% increment of positional value (so Votto would be worth about $47 with no positional weighting and about $42-$43 with 100% positional weighting) and 2) Catcher values changes dramatically.  In the end, I decided to switch this to 25/75 as I’ve found that 1B projections are a lot more reliable than Catcher projections.   In addition, even with just a 25% positional weight, Posey is valued at $36 for 12-team NL only with 2 catchers.  This is already more than he’ll likely go for in most leagues (he went at $29 in our recent CBS) whereas most 1Bs seem to go closer to the 25% weight vs. 75% weight.

Please leave comments if you have a point of view regarding the ideal positional weighting.  Does the 75/25 weight seem too much/little?  If you prefer a different split, why?

The first run of our 2011 Point Shares for 10 and 12 MLB leagues are now available there and via the 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings menu at the top of the page.  The player rate projections are a composite of Marcel projections, FanGraphs fan projections and CAIRO (created/managed by SG at the Replacement Level Yankee Weblog – can be downloaded here).  The playing time estimates (AB/IP) are courtesy of Fantistics – a paid projection service that’s done very well in Tom Tango’s Forecaster Challenge (they beat me in 2010!). I’ve also changed some stats – particularly Saves – where I felt the projections were too bullish.

Once ZIPS projections are available (ETA late Feb/early March), I will incorporate them as well.  By then, I should have the following league formats posted (C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9P unless otherwise noted):

10/12/14/16-team mixed league
8/10/12 team AL (2 catchers)
8/10/12 team NL (2 catchers)

For those new to Razzball and/or ‘Point Shares,’ please see last year’s post that explains it in detail. The quick definition is that a Point Share represents the value in fantasy baseball standings points of a player compared to the average drafted player at his position (with some consideration taken into account for the value of the player against the average hitter or pitcher).  This is estimated for each player stat and then added up for the rankings.  For example, Ichiro is estimated to be worth 1.2 points more than the average drafted OF. His Runs (+0.4), SB (+1.6), and AVG (+1.8) drive his value. But they come at a price in terms of HR (-1.4) and RBI (-1.2). The theoretical max for a player in one category would be the # of teams divided by 2 and minus 0.5. So a 12-team league’s ‘average’ team would get 6.5 in each category and, thus, I would need +5.5 to win a category (the highest Point Shares in single category right now is Jacoby Ellsbury’s +3.3 in SB).

Three notes:

1) This should not be used as a draft sheet. The goal of drafting is to get the most value and balance out of a draft. Yes, pitchers are generally undervalued in both snake and auction drafts. But drafting Halladay in the 1st round isn’t getting great value (it’s fair value). I’d aim to draft both pitchers (and catchers for that matter) anywhere from 1 ½ – 2 rounds after their value would suggest. So Halladay in the end of the 2nd round would be great value. Also, note that all Point Shares base a player’s worth on their value to an average team. Once you draft a Halladay, your pitching staff starts skewing above average (assuming you draft average pitchers after that). So, drafting F-Her in the next round is worth less to your team than the other teams.

To help on auction drafts, I’ve added a second dollar amount that weighs up hitter values and weighs down pitcher values to reflect a $180 hitter/$80 pitcher split.  I believe that’s more in line with traditional auction draft bidding.

2) Position scarcity is taken into account with Point Shares. For multi-position players, I assign them to the scarcest position (note: I assigned Kevin Youkilis to 3B since he’ll have eligibility after 1-2 weeks).  The progression is C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH.  Here’s a weighting of positions for 2011 12-team league based on the initial projections I’ve compiled: 1B -100, OF-95, 2B-93, 3B-92, SS-86, C-74.  One thing that’s immediately clear is that the top-tier of shortstops is really shallow. H-Ram, Tulo, and Reyes are in the top 40 for Point Shares and the next SS is Jeter at #99. Assuming you don’t take H-Ram or Tulo over Pujols, I don’t think you can draft those two players too high (H-Ram is #2 and Tulo #5 in position player Point Shares). There’s a case for Votto, Miggy, and Braun ahead of Tulo but it’s close. What I don’t recommend, though, is overpaying on Reyes (late 2nd round would be the earliest) or anyone else. I’ve seen drafts where Jeter is picked in the 4th round. That’s a sucker pick.   When a position is so shallow – and there is little differentiation in the later tiers – it’s your cue to punt the category and stock up on other positions.  More bluntly, in a shallow position, either take a top guy at close to his value or punt.   Worst case, you stream players until you find a keeper.  Remember that EVERYONE will be fishing for free agent OFs, SPs, and RPs once the season starts.  The competition for 2B/SS/3B FA’s isn’t as high.

3) Player position eligibility is based on 20 games in the previous year.  Some online services might use 10 games as the eligibility threshold.  You should check your league rules.  Generally, a  player’s value only increases if his additional position is further to the left of the C, SS, 2B, 3B, OF, 1B, DH progression (e.g., Sandoval adding 1B eligibility to his 3B means very little.  But a player adding C eligibility besides 1B is a bonus.)

Razzball Point Shares are now up for the following 5×5 league formats:

MLB 10-team league

MLB 12-team league

MLB 14-team league

MLB 16-team league

Point Shares are our proprietary methodology for ranking players.  See here for a primer.  If you’re in a rush or don’t care to read a methodology post, these rankings estimate a player’s impact on a team’s points vs. the average drafted player at that position.  Ever wonder what the value is of , say, Carl Crawford’s SBs?  Our estimate in a 12-team league is 3.3 points – so if you have a team with average speed and Crawford, you’ll fall close to 10 points (average is 6.5 + 3.3).  How bad does Jacoby Ellsbury’s HR/RBI hurt you vs. an average OF?   He costs you 1.6 points in HR and another 1.5 points in RBI (that’s why he comes in at #102 vs. the very high pick in other rankings).

I don’t recommend that you use this as a de facto draft rankings.  You have to factor in how the other teams in your league will value players.  No reason to draft a player a few rounds before anyone else will.

You’ll find that Point Shares value pitchers more than any set of drafters ever would.  Before you go all crazy and draft 3 pitchers in the first 5 rounds, remember that these estimates are based on adding  a player to the average team.  Once you add a stud pitcher like Lincecum, your pitching staff is way above average.  Any additional pitcher will have less incremental value.  Unlike Spinal Tap’s amplifiers, you can’t go past 10 in a category if you’re in a 10 team league no matter how much you dominate.

In the next week or so, we’ll be posting 8-team, 10-team, and 12-team AL-only and NL-only.

Comment below if you have any questions…

Now that all talk of 2008 Player Raters are complete, it’s time to move on to 2009.

See below for links to our 2009 Projected Point Shares for MLB 10 team and 12 team leagues (they can also be accessed in the menu on top of the page):

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 10 Team

Razzball Fantasy Baseball Projected Point Shares – MLB 12 Team

These are based on the Marcel projection system which is considered a baseline by which other services compare themselves.  If you want to read more on it and/or download the 2009 projections, click here.  If you do download the stats, you’ll see that they are very conservative.  Don’t worry about this in regards to Point Shares as our methodology adjusts for this (so in a conservative projection system, 30 HRs are going to be worth more than in an aggressive projection system).

We will post additional versions of Projected Point Shares when other established, free projection systems (CHONE & ZIPS) publish their data and, eventually, create the ‘official’ Point Shares spreadsheet in the Feb/March timeframe.

Please post any/all feedback in the Comments section…