Fantasy Baseball Advice

Is it call-ups?  Or callups?  Can I get a ruling on this– Wait, someone’s at the door.  August 31st, is that you? Uh… No.  August 30th? Nope.  August 32nd? No, you nitwit!  It’s September 1st!  Yes, it’s time we looked at September call ups (callups? call-ups?).  These are potential September call-ups that will, should, could and potentially make or not make a difference in fantasy baseball.  Today, we’ll look at the hitters, then we’ll look at pitchers in another post.  So tip out some of your malt liquor for the pitchers who aren’t here and take a drag on that Newport, cause Razzball’s alive with pleasure with September call-ups, the hitters.  Anyway, here’s some potential September call ups to keep your eye on for fantasy baseball:

Mike Moustakas – Has a cool name, doesn’t he?  Like he has a legendary gyro recipe and a picture of Ernie Anastos above his bed.  Moustakas should slide right into the Royals lineup (and hurt Betemit’s time) since the Royals need to see how Moustakas does.  Though the peasant Royals are Mr. Bungles, so you never know.  In the minors, he has 28 homers and a .374 OBP.  Favorable leagues, but still.  Keep effing that chicken, Moustakas.

Jesus Montero – It’s cool and all that the Yankee hype machine is fully behind Montero, but he’s 21.  The Yankees are handing catching duties over to him?  A guy with DH skills behind the plate?  Why has Cervelli been catching?  Is Montero going to DH on a team with 4 DHs?  Unless you’re in a league with Rudy Giuliani and you can trade him Montero for Pujols, I’d contain my enthusiasm until I see Montero get a starting job.

Dustin Ackley – If you read regular baseball sites, they drool over Ackley.  I think that’s because he profiles as a much better real baseball player than a fantasy one.  The top reaches of his upside is Dusty P.  But that’s peak, Pammy A on Baywatch, prime upside.  Right now, you’re looking at Ian Desmond with a better average.  It’s good at MI and he should get playing time in September.  Expectations in check, friend.

Desmond Jennings – I feel like I’ve been anxiously anticipating Jennings’ arrival since last winter.  Still not sure where he’s playing, but doode has speed to burn.  Ron Washington, “Someone say speed?”  Oh, Ron.

Freddie Freeman – Has 17 homers and a .370 OBP in the minors this year.  Should be owned already in deep keepers and NL-Only leagues.  The trade for Lee hurts Freddie Freeman’s value in redraft leagues for this year.  Stupid Lee.

Yonder Alonso – Nice bat, but Votto’s is even nicer at first base.  Alonso might platoon in the outfield vs. some righties, but the Reds are playing for a playoff spot, so he’ll need to do something to stay relevant.

Zack Cozart – Zack Amadeus Cozart started playing baseball at the age of 9, he’s now 25 and still in the minors.  Those damn prodigies, candle in the wind and all that jazz.  Has good pop, but he’s also on the Reds and might not see enough PT.

Lars Anderson – His bat seems to take a while each time he gets promoted.  So far in Triple-A, 8 homers and .258 in 357 ABs.  All right, L.A., see you next year.

Brandon Belt – In the minors this year, 19 homers and a .361 average with 20 steals.  Yeah, that’s good.  A little birdie by the name of Stephen said he’s going to be going over him tomorrow so I don’t want to step on any toes, partially because I don’t want to scuff my Doc Martens.  In short, Belt should be grabbed in deep keepers, but, without some serious injuries, he has no place to play this year.

Todd Frazier – The Reds are stacked with alternates.  Frazier could be a super-utility man like Ben Zobrist, but he’s not going to see much time in September either.  Hmm… Guess I could’ve pared down this list.  But Frazier’s from Point (Not So) Pleasant, New Jersey.  Gotta represent.

Wilson Ramos – I could see grabbing him in NL-Only keeper or dynasty leagues so you have a very cheap option next year, but I gotta tell you, I’m pretty whatever on Ramos as of right now.

Jordan Danks – Why didn’t the White Sox draft Jonas Danks too?  Jordan’s not going to help much this year without some injuries and a hot streak.

Mark Trumbo – Not even sure why he’s still in the minors.  Doesn’t Scioscia realize if he promotes Trumbo then he has yet another reason to bench Napoli?

Scott Cousins – Has 20/20 potential over a full season and the Marlins have never been shy about promoting prospects.  I’d keep an eye on Cousins.

Brandon Allen – I’ve already tooted this guy’s horn a bunch of times.  Eiwww… Not like that, random italicized voice.  Mmm-hmm. My concern is if LaRoche isn’t traded then him and Allen may both see time which would hurt both of their values.

Greg Halman – Has 149 Ks in 97 games in the PCL with 29 homers.  Too bad he’s not on the Blue Kays or Diamondhacks.

Jared Goedert – Not sure why the Indians aren’t playing him already.  Goedert has 25 homers this year in the minors and the Indians are playing Jayson Nix.  Oh-kay.

Michael Taylor – I don’t understand this whole ‘Hey, he’s a top prospect, but we’re never promoting him.’  Is this so the A’s can trade him again before the shine wears off?  Beane, “Yeah, he’s going to be great in the majors, but you’ll never know until you trade us a non-athletic 1st baseman for him.”

Seattle Mariners 2009 Minor League Review
Overall farm ranking via Baseball America:
2009 (24) | 2008 (11) | 2007 (24) | 2006 (27) | 2005 (11) | 2004 (12)

Records of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [85 – 77] AL West
AAA: [74 – 70] Pacific Coast League
AA: [62 – 78] Southern League
A+: [83 – 57] California League
A: [69 – 68] Midwest League
A(ss): [39 – 37] Northwest
R: [28 – 36] Appalachian League
R: [33 – 22] Pioneer League

The Run Down
Seattle had a massive turn around from 2008 when they were 61 – 101. With Bill Bavasi ousted, the new General Manager, Jack Zduriencik did an amazing job restructuring and rebuilding on the fly to create a competitive team. Trading J.J. Putz, Jeremy Reed and Sean Green to the Mets for Endy Chavez and Luis Valbuena to Cleveland for Franklin Gutierrez helped shaped one of the most impressive defensive outfields all season – not to mention acquiring Jack Wilson (who they resigned for 2 yr/$10 million) and ridding himself of Yuniesky Betancourt. However, during Bavasi tenure (from 2004 to 2008), he traded away prospects, signed players and, in general, mismanaged the Mariners franchise. The epicenter of his ineptitude was trading Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Christ Tillman, Tony Butler and Kam Mickolio for Eric Bedard who just came off a career year.

Nevertheless, life happens and people move on. The Mariners seem to have a logjam of outfielders in their minors (Greg Halman, Tyson Gillies, Michael Saunders, and Carlos Peguero) that are either highly ranked prospects or produced well this year. However, beyond a few stud position players, they lack a truly dominant ace. Phillippe Aumont has been moved into the bullpen to be groomed as a closer and their one dominant-looking pitcher (Michael Pineda) was ravaged by injuries this year. With all these performing outfielders, look for Seattle to make some trades this year that will allow their prospects to be promoted up a level – I am looking at you, Mr. Peguero. A random nugget of trivia – Seattle’s High-A team hit 164 homers leading the California League (which happens to be the Pacific Coast League’s little brother and carries on the family tradition of being a hitters league). The next closest team, a Texas affiliate hit 144 homers.

Graduating Prospects (Called-up Players)
#13 – (C) Rob Johnson; #2 – (OF) Michael Saunders; (SP) Doug Fister; (SP) Luke French; (SP) Chris Jakubuaska; #14 – (RP) Shawn Kelley

Arizona Fall League Players – Peoria Javelinas
Pitchers – Phillippe Aumont; Josh Fields (2008 #1 Draft Pick); Nick Hill; Anthony Varvaro
Hitters – (SS) Juan Diaz; (1B) Joe Dunigan; Dustin Ackley (2009 #1 Draft Pick)

Players of Interest
Hitters
#1 – Greg Halman | CF | AA | 21 | .210/.278/.420 | 457 AB | 17 2B | 25 HR | .210 ISO | 9/7 SB/CS | 183:29 K: BB | .285 BABIP
After reducing his strikeout rates from 41.2% in 2007 to roughly 29% in 2008, Halman pushed his strikeout rate back up to 40% this year. Additionally, his BABIP wasn’t extremely low either, so there is no fluke factor pointing at his low average. Without strong plate discipline, pitchers can make Halman chase a pitch outside the zone. Considered the “Best Athlete” in the Mariners system and having been compared to Andre Dawson and Alfonso Soriano, some of his expectations should be reigned in. Look for him to repeat Double-A again next year and possibly a promotion to Triple-A if all goes well.

#20 – Tyson Gillies | CF | A+ | 21 | .341/.430/.486 | 498 AB | 17 2B | 14 3B | 9 HR | .145 ISO | 44/19 SB/CS | 81:61 K: BB | .395 BABIP
Gillies can scoot. He has been recorded to make it from home to first-base in 3.8 seconds (scores an 80 on a 20 – 80 scale; and he is the fastest player in Seattle’s minor league system). With this speed, his outfield defense is beyond stellar with a plus-arm to boot – actually the best arm for all of Seattle’s prospects. Most Mariner scouts believe he has a good “feel” for the strike zone, and this year he finally put it all together. Not exceptionally powerful, he was able to push a few over the fence. However, 61% of his contacted balls were on the ground. He still needs to improve his stealing percent. Expect to see Gillies in Double-A in 2010 and possibly in the majors if any major injuries occur because of his stellar defense.

Carlos Peguero | CF | A+ | 22 | .271/.335/.560 | 491 AB | 21 2B | 14 3B | 31 HR | .289 ISO | 3/4 SB/CS | 172:42 K: BB | .354 BABIP
Second in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston in the California League this year. Peguero exploded onto the scene after only hitting 12 homers in 2008. With Gillies manning center field at the same level, and Greg Halman right above both of these players, I would imagine Halman or Peguero will get traded this winter. Peguero strikes out a lot and this was his second go at High-A (because of Halman). Nevertheless, 66 extra-base hits are still impressive. He should start 2010 at Double-A.

Pitchers
#3 – Phillippe Aumont | RP (LH) | A+/AA | 20 | 10.4 K/9 | 4.1 BB/9 | 33 1/3 IP | 3.88 ERA | 1.33 WHIP | 1.37 GO/AO | .263/.436 BABIP
Mentioned him in a StU in September. He’ll probably open 2010 at Double-A and it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in the latter parts of the summer.

Nick Hill | SP (LH) | AA | 24 | 9.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 95 2/3 IP | 3.10 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | 1.97 GO/AO | .318 BABIP
MLB wrote an article talking about how he was a pitcher at West Point – it also mentions his AFL stats, which aren’t looking very good. It’s very encouraging to see an almost two-to-one ground ball – fly ball ratio. He is a mid-level prospect at best and I wouldn’t envision hearing his name in many circles around baseball. However, Joel Pineiro isn’t sexy and he gets the job done. Hill could have success if he can keep the ball on the ground.

#10 – Michael Pineda | SP (RH) | A+ | 20 | 9.7 K/9 | 1.2 BB/9 | 44 1/3 IP | 2.84 ERA | .80 WHIP | 1.69 GO/AO | .252 BABIP
I will let Marc Hulet do all the work here because he did an awesome job describing Pineda. He looks like an unheralded stud in the making.

Honorable Mentions
Alex Liddi | 3B | A+ | 21 | .345/.411/.594 | 493 AB | 44 2B | 23 HR | .249 ISO | 122:53 K:BB | .422 BABIP
This Italian’s numbers are highly inflated with an astronomically high BABIP (it’s nearly .100 points higher than his previous high at Single-A. He has played Single-A from ages 17 to 19 and finally moved up to High-A this year (he just recently turned 21). Another positive trend is that he has reduced his strikeout rate from 30.8% in 2007 to 24.7% this year while improving his walk-rate from 8.3% in 2007 to 9.6% in 2009 (not a huge increase, but definitely worth noting).

Joe Dunigan | 1B/RF/DH | A+ | 23 | .294/.355/.570 | 456 AB | 28 2B | 30 HR | .249 ISO | 20/8 SB/SB | .350 BABIP
Third in homers to only Jonathan Gaston from Houston and teammate Peguero in the California League this year, Dunigan mashed his was to mid-level prospect status. Another positive asset is his ability to steal. With Mike Carp as the only first baseman ahead of Dunigan in the rankings, Dunigan may have a chance to prove his worth more in the long run as Carp has never been nearly as powerful. Speaking of which…

#17 – Mike Carp | 1B | AAA | 23 | .271/.372/.446 | 413 AB | 25 2B | 15 HR | .174 ISO | 99:58 K:BB | .324 BABIP
He has never hit more than 19 homers in a season (short season) and then 17 in a full season (High-A in the Florida State League). Upon promotion to the majors this September, Carp hit .315/.415/.463 in 53 AB. With Russell Branyan rejecting Seattle’s most recent contract, Carp may get placed into the limelight sooner rather than later. He was acquired in the Putz trade and has been compared to Mike Jacobs with better plate awareness and much better defense – though he is still an average defender at best. If he gets a chance out of spring training to start for the Mariners expect Conor Jackson-like numbers from 2007: 60/15/75/.275.

#5 – Juan Ramirez | SP (RH) | A | 20 | 7 K.9 | 3.4 BB/9 | 142 1/3 IP | 5.12 ERA (4.76 FIP) | 1.45 WHIP | 1.15 GO/AO | .317 BABIP
Has a 92 to 93 mph heater that has tip the scales to the tune of 97 mph before. He is still more a thrower than pitcher.

#21 – Gaby Hernandez | SP (RH) | AAA | 23 | 6 K/9 | 3 BB/9 | 146 1/3 IP | 5.23 ERA | 1.41 WHIP | .69 GO/AO | .311 BABIP
Gives up a ton of fly-balls and gopher balls (1.3 HR/9 at Triple-A) and hasn’t been impressive in quite some time (since 2006 and 2007 at High-A).

#6 – Adam Moore | C | AA/AAA | 25 | .287/.352/.425 | 435 AB | 25 2B | 12 HR | .148 ISO | 72:42 K:BB | .310/.325 BABIP
Could potentially challenge Rob Johnson for starting catcher next spring. Moore is the better hitter but his defense isn’t even near Johnson’s.