Fantasy Baseball Advice

Before I start digging into 2011 fantasy baseball projections, I thought I’d use up some blog space to look back at 2010.

I’ve calculated the total value of each player by taking their total value as measured by my Point Shares metric (a Point Share represents the estimated difference in an average team’s points if they were to substitute a given player for the average player at his position).  I converted each player’s Average Draft Position (ADP) to an ‘Expected Point Share’ metric and subtracted that from their final calculated value in a 12 team mixed league.  So if a player outperformed his draft position, he’s in the positive.

The full results are here.  There are links on the page for 2010 Player Raters for MLB 10, 12, 14, and 16-team leagues.

Below represents the best values across the various roster spots.  I’ve created two ‘All-Star’ teams:  one for players drafted in the top 100 and one for players drafted outside the top 100.  If there were no players who outperformed their draft position, I kept the slot null.   As  you can see below, 2010 was a bad year for ‘Top 100′ catchers and relievers.  Top 100 SPs had a solid year with 12 of the 21 providing positive returns (relative to draft position) and only two complete flameouts (Beckett and Vazquez).

As for the worst values, it was a positively brutal year for Top 100 second basemen as five of the eight picked in the top 50 had disappointing to very disappointing returns (Utley, Kinsler, Pedroia, Roberts, Hill with Uggla, Cano and Phillips the other three).  The same goes for third baseman as Sandoval edged out Beckham, A-Rod, Reynolds, and Figgins for the honor of worst return.  Eleven 3Bs were taken in the top 100 and only Michael Young provided a positive return (Wright was close – with an ADP of 14 and final rank of 19).

With the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for every position done, we turn our lazy eye towards the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These rankings may as well been co-written by Kim Jong-il because, if those 2010 fantasy baseball rankings were the bomb, this shizz is nu-cu-lar.  None of this top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball is meant to surprise.  It’s just taking my positional rankings and putting guys in The Big Picture.  Obviously at a hundred players, some guys just didn’t make it.  About 200 or so, to be inexact.  It’s okay, there will be a top 300 too.  Shortly, Sloth, you’ll have your Baby Ruth.  Not to get all biblical on you, but this is the gospel.  Print it out and take it to Mt. Sinai and it will say, “Win your 2010 fantasy baseball league, young premature balding man.”  Projections were done by me and a crack team of 100 monkeys fighting amongst themselves because there were only 99 typewriters.  Somebody buy Ling-Ling his own typewriter!  To help with your drafting, there’s also a list of players with multiple position eligibility along with the Point Shares.  Anyway, here’s the top 100 for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Albert Pujols – I’m man enough to admit I love Poo-Holes.  2010 Projections:  110/40/120/.337/10

2. Hanley Ramirez – Ready to have your mind blown?  Imagine if the Red Sox didn’t trade Hanley to the Marlins.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.320/25

3. Chase Utley – Gets the edge on A-Rod for his position and pomade.  2010 Projections:  110/32/105/.300/15

4. Alex Rodriguez – Jeter’s got the market cornered on hot Latinas while A-Rod’s rocking lame ass white girls, but, unfortunately, I can’t hold that against him for fantasy.  2010 Projections:  110/36/120/.310/15

5. Ryan Braun – If he can do what I think he’s capable of, he could be number one for 2011.  2010 Projections:  110/37/120/.305/17

6. Mark Teixeira – Like LL, Tex just keeps doing and doing and doing it well.  2010 Projections:  100/37/120/.305

7. Miguel Cabrera – He gives me the vibe he doesn’t care, but maturity does weird things to people.  Shoot, I used to shave my head, sag my Karl Kanis and wear purple sneakers.  If Cabrera can put forth 100%, he can be a force.  2010 Projections:  105/35/115/.320/3

8. Matt Kemp – Man, I’m loving these 5-8 picks.  Can you dig it?  I knew you could.  2010 Projections:  100/30/110/.305/32

9. Prince Fielder – If 40 homers is the key, then Fielder’s a lock.  2010 Projections: 100/42/115/.285

10. Ryan Howard – Howard = Fielder + 5 homers – .010 on average.  2010 Projections:  105/47/140/.275

11. Evan Longoria – I had a premonition that Longoria could steal 20 bases in 2010.  Might’ve been indigestion.  2010 Projections:  100/36/115/.280/10

12. Tim Lincecum – From the files of Coincidences That Don’t Really Mean Anything, I ranked him 12th last year too.  2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250

13. David Wright – I don’t buy that Wright, Reyes or Johan are done.  If you were to jump out of a DeLorean and say to me you’re from the future and the Mets are in the playoffs, it wouldn’t shock me.  I’d assume they traded for three starters in July.  2010 Projections:  100/25/110/.300/17

14. Matt Holliday – He’s a great average, solid power and moderate steal contributor.  In fantasy, that gets you 14th.  2010 Projections:  105/28/115/.320/15

15. Ian Kinsler – If he stays healthy again and has a lucky year for average, he can give you a season better than Utley.  But those are two decent-sized ifs.  2010 Projections:  110/29/80/.270/34

16. Troy Tulowitzki – As you can see from my projections — go ahead, look, this’ll be here — I think his steals come down from last year.  2010 Projections:  95/35/105/.280/12

17. Grady Sizemore – When I say bounce… You say back.  Bounce… Back…  Bounce… Back… Pounce… Back– I said pounce, got ya.  2010 Projections:  110/27/80/.270/25

18. Carl Crawford – I’ll be honest, I considered dropping Crawford a little further down, but the near-15 homers gets him ranked here.  2010 Projections: 110/14/65/.290/50

19. Adrian Gonzalez – Mind blowing time again.  Imagine Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez on the Red Sox.  2010 Projections:  90/38/100/.280

20. Jimmy Rollins – This is the last shortstop for a while.  Why?  Cause shortstops suck.  You’re best to not look at shortstops again until Andrus.  2010 Projections:  110/20/65/.275/28

21. Justin Morneau – I’m kinda all right on Morneau this year.  I’m not expecting 35 homers or any steals, but around 30/100/.290 is solid.  2010 Projections:  95/32/110/.290

22. Jacoby Ellsbury – Same that goes for Crawford.  Probably won’t own Ellsbury but the boy has speed and some slight power.  2010 Projections:  105/10/65/.300/60

23. Justin Upton – I like J-Upside this year, but, then again, everyone does.  2010 Projections:  80/27/95/.290/20

24. Felix Hernandez – Love, love, love F-Her.  Think he has multiple Cy Youngs in his arm.  But I probably won’t own him either.  Before I get a ton of comments about why would I rank someone somewhere and then say I wouldn’t own them.  I can’t own everyone.  It’s just impossible.  For instance, with my first two picks, I take Braun and Reyes, I’ll need a first baseman.  If I take Hanley and A-Gon, I’ll need an outfielder.  If I take A-Rod and Sizemore, I’ll need a first baseman.  It’s just the way I assemble a team.  I’m not going to draft a starter third UNLESS — yes, Mr. Caps, that’s for emphasis — Lincecum’s still around in the third round then I won’t be able to turn that down.  But that doesn’t mean F-Her isn’t ranked here.  If I were to only talk about the guys I would actually own, this top 100 may only be 20 guys long.  Also, technically I would own F-Her if he were around after I drafted, say, Braun, Reyes and Votto.  But he won’t be.  2010 Projections:  18-6/3.00/1.10/220

25. Zack Greinke – More or less the same gist as F-Her.  2010 Projections:  14-5/3.05/1.10/225

26. Roy Halladay – Halladay could easily be the top rated starter at the end of the year.  He’s not listed first because the guys above beat him in Ks and age.  2010 Projections:  17-8/3.02/1.14/185

27. Joe Mauer – He’s ranked 28th because I know he’ll be gone before he gets to here.  Consider it a preemptive strike.  2010 Projections:  100/20/85/.330/3

28. Ryan Zimmerman – I see Zimmerman moving into the 2nd round for 2011.  2010 Projections:  105/30/110/.295/5

29. Kevin Youkilis – When a player gets to 30 years old and has failed to reach 30 homers, it’s pretty safe to say he’s probably not getting there.  The Greek God of 27 Homers and a Near-.300 Average.  2010 Projections:  95/27/105/.295/5

30. CC Sabathia – I had this wild dream the other day.  I was watching a Yankee game where CC was on the mound but instead of CC it was Prop Joe.  2010 Projections:  20-10/3.45/1.17/200

31. Mark Reynolds – Flip over your your pocket-sized Chinese food take out calender, 2009 was the Year of the Mini Donkey, not 2010.  2010 Projections:  85/35/95/.250/12

32. Joey Votto – If you don’t know how I feel about Votto at this point, you haven’t been reading the site.  2010 Projections:  90/30/105/.305/7

33. Curtis Granderson – His average will come up and the homers will fly in the Boogie Down.  2010 Projections:  110/30/80/.270/20

34. Jayson Werth – In any different lineup or park, I’d be worried about Werth ranked this high.  Plus, he’s a 5 time Intercontinental Champion.  2010 Projections:  85/30/100/.270/18

35. Jose Reyes – It’s not great that he’s starting the year on the DL, but Mauer did it last year and A-Rod and Utley…  It’s a long season, if you can get Reyes at a discount, go for it.  2010 Projections:  105/11/55/.285/45

36. B.J. Upton – Don’t believe last year’s average.  2010 Projections:  90/14/65/.275/40

37. Brandon Phillips – Steady contributor at a weak position.  2010 Projections:  80/22/95/.275/22

38. Brian Roberts – I’m worried at some point Roberts is going to get old.  He’ll be 32 in twenty-ten.  Might happen.  2010 Projections:  105/13/75/.285/30

39. Dustin Pedroia – Member the battles I fought last year for telling people Pedroia wasn’t a 1st or 2nd round pick?  Yeah, those people went into the shadows like Orson Welles in The Third Man.  2010 Projections:  110/15/70/.305/15

40. Robinson Cano – Entering the magical 27 year old season and his high average is not a trick.  (A trick is something a whore does for money.)  2010 Projections:  90/27/100/.315/5

41. Brian McCann – I probably won’t own McCann outside of two catcher leagues, but I am more pro-McCann than most ‘perts.  2010 Projections:  80/28/105/.295/3

42. Victor Martinez – V-Mart at first base is kinda eh.  2010 Projections:  85/25/110/.300

43. Ichiro Suzuki – Great average, but I don’t pay for average.  2010 Projections:  100/10/55/.330/25

44. Jason Bay – I don’t think Metco kills a player’s value, but it’s definitely not Fenway.  2010 Projections:  85/28/105/.270/10

45. Johan Santana – I don’t think Metco makes a pitcher’s value, but it’s Johan.  Falling K-rate, schmalling K-rate.  2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200

46. Adam Lind – I understand people not being crazy for Lind because of his position, but don’t be not crazy for him because you think his power is fluky.  Yes, that was a triple negative.  Those are okay.  2010 Projections:  85/35/110/.300/2

47. Josh Hamilton – Hey, it’s my old whipping boy.  I like him this year.  See, it wasn’t personal.  2010 Projections: 85/28/100/.275/7

48. Andre Ethier – I’m basically stocking my outfield with these rankings.  Say what you want about depth, but it’s not that deep when every team needs 5 of them.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7

49. Derek Jeter – Last year’s slight boost in power makes sense, but the huge increase in speed won’t carry over.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

50. Justin Verlander – Just don’t abandon ship when he starts the season poorly.  2010 Projections:  17-11/3.25/1.20/230

51. Dan Haren – Abandon ship when the clock strikes July.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200

52. Jon Lester – If it means taking a starter in the 5th round, so be it.  But I’m looking to own Lester on at least one team in 2010.  2010 Projections:  17-7/3.35/1.20/215

53. Adam Wainwright – Hmm… Where are the top starters?  This seems off.  2010 Projections:   16-8/3.30/1.18/190

54. Carlos Quentin – Charlie Quentin is talented, the health is the issue.  2010 Projections:  80/28/95/.275/5

55. Nelson Cruz – His projections say he should be above even Hamilton and Ethier but I have my trepidations that Cruz could revert to being the guy that couldn’t get out of the minors.  Unlike my other trepidations, this one feels less warranted.  2010 Projections:  80/32/95/.275/15

56. Adam Jones – Why is Adam Jones being drafted after players like Manny?  Point your right foot thumbkin up and point your left foot thumbkin down.  Right is Jones, left is Manny.  2010 Projections:  95/27/85/.280/15

57. Nick Markakis – I do think Markakis is talented, but I’d sure like to see a year of 25+ homers before drafting him as my first outfielder.  Shoot, I’d take just 25 homers.  2010 Projections:  100/24/100/.300/7

58. Pablo Sandoval – I’m probably lower on Sandoval than most, but I don’t think 25 homers was a jumping off point but more of a ceiling.  2010 Projections:  80/24/95/.315/4

59. Aaron Hill – I don’t buy 2009 at all, so I’m not touching him where lots of ‘perts are.  2010 Projections:  85/24/80/.280/5

60. Kendry Morales – If he’s 26 years old, I’ll shave the ‘stache.  2010 Projections:  80/28/100/.285/3

61. Adam Dunn – 40, 40, 40, 40, 40, 38… Even if it’s 36 in 2010, he’s still worth the average.  2010 Projections:  80/40/100/.250

62. Carlos Pena – Led the AL in homers and missed the last month of the season.  2010 Projections:  95/37/100/.250

63. Shin-Soo Choo – Throw Choo, Abreu, Victorino and Hunter into a big, over-sized hat and pick out one for your team.  They’re all relatively the same.  More speed here, less average there.  More pop here, less speed there.  2010 Projections:  90/18/100/.285/20

64. Bobby Abreu – How is he fast and Miguel Cabrera slow when they both have the same body type?  2010 Projections:  95/15/100/.300/20

65. Shane Victorino – Now that Crapolanco shoved him down the order, I anticipate yelling at the TV screen, “Stop bunting over Victorino!”  2010 Projections:  75/12/85/.290/30

66. Torii Hunter – He hasn’t stolen more than 20 bases in a season since 2004.  Cust kayin’.  cus2010 Projections:  75/23/85/.275/17

67. Carlos Lee – Could be more valuable than Lind, but where’s the excitement in that?  2010 Projections:  65/27/100/.300/5

68. Ben Zobrist – With Zobrist, Jacoby Ellsbury and Zimmerman, it’s a renaissance for players whose names sound Jewish but are not.  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.270/12

69. Chone Figgins – If you have a team where your 2nd baseman and shortstop  have pop — think Uggla and Tulo — I could see Figgins.  But the dearth of power at 3rd could kill your entire team.  I opt for steals in the latter rounds at MI.  Think Everth Cabrera.  2010 Projections:  105/5/55/.295/40

70. Cole Hamels – He paid last year for being overworked in 2008.  This year he makes up for it.  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.45/1.15/185

71. Josh Johnson – Last year, he had a sub-3 ERA until August 20th.  2010 Projections:  14-6/3.35/1.22/175

72. Cliff Lee – The Adverb is about as safe as they come, but he gets ranked here because he’s not a huge strikeout threat.  2010 Projections:  15-8/3.40/1.22/160

73. Ubaldo Jimenez – Takes nads the size of beach balls to draft a Rockies pitcher as your first pitcher off the board.  Also takes nads to win a fantasy baseball championship.  Or at least that’s what I keep telling myself.  2010 Projections:  15-9/3.50/1.27/200

74. Derrek Lee – Lee’s not a 35 homer hitter like last year.  He’s a 24 to 27 homer hitter.  My apologies to Cubs fans, Derrek Lee’s family and anyone else I might have hurt with my words.  2010 Projections:  90/25/100/.295/3

75. Ricky Nolasco – Love the K/BB and badass name.  2010 Projections:  15-7/3.55/1.20/200

76. Josh Beckett – What can be said about Red State Jeter that hasn’t already been said?  Sounds like a rhetorical, but really what?  2010 Projections:  16-10/3.70/1.22/195

77. Clayton Kershaw – I took down my Ron LeFlore door poster and put up Clayton Kershaw.  2010 Projections:  12-4/3.20/1.22/200

78. Denard Span – Probably the least exciting name on the top 100 (though Uggla’s a close second).  Span’s numbers aren’t that far off from Victorino.  Call him Feign Victorino.  I might need to do a Sleeper post about Denard Dawg.  That’ll draw some eyeballs. /sarcasm  2010 Projections:  100/10/70/.300/22

79. Alfonso Soriano – Free swingers don’t age well.  Speedsters with leg problems don’t run much.  Still 20/10 seems to be about his floor.  There’s value in that.  2010 Projections:  70/25/85/.270/12

80. Alex Rios – Rios is like buying a Chia Pet.  You’re excited when you buy it.  Seems like a fun idea.  Then you get home, never water it and it goes 8-for-75.  2010 Projections:  85/19/70/.275/22

81. Chris Carpenter – As I mentioned in the top 20 starters, I’m avoiding Carp, Yovani and Peavy.  Ergo, I switched the order in this top 100.  Ergo, Yovani and Peavy didn’t even make the top 100.  Ergo, I have no idea if I’m using ergo correctly.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.10/1.05/135

82. Manny Ramirez – I’m not going to be able to get Manny this late and that’s by design.  2010 Projections:  85/28/100/.300

83. Matt Wieters – Dreamy without the Brady Anderson sideburns.  2010 Projections:  70/18/85/.305

84. Gordon Beckham – I’m typing this with my toes as I do sit-ups.  That’s how much I like Beckham.  2010 Projections:  85/18/63/.260/14

85. Raul Ibanez – Sorta in the same boat as Werth, but older.  I.e., if Ibanez were on a different team in a different lineup, I’d have no problem lowering him.  Hitting in Citizens Bank behind Rollins, Polanco, Utley, Howard and Werth is not a bad place to be.  2010 Projections:  85/27/100/.270/3

86. Carlos Beltran – I don’t feel comfortable with this ranking and could see skipping right over Beltran if I were drafting in early March.  I need to know more about his condition.  2010 Projections:  70/20/80/.280/12

87. Jason Bartlett – If you haven’t seen Charlie Bartlett, I’d avoid it.  And Jason Bartlett.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

87. Joe Nathan – UPDATE:  He’s done, put a fork in him. 2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

88. Jonathan Papelbon – There’s no way I’m getting one of these closers this late in a draft.  That’s all right, cause I don’t want them. But as more and more fantasy baseballers (<–my Mom’s term) become better informed, closers are starting to fall lower and lower.  Continued thought in Rivera’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

89. Mariano Rivera – If this trend continues then I may have to tell people to start drafting closers because at a certain point there’s value with them.  Continued thought in Broxton’s blurb.  2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

90. Jonathan Broxton – Hmm… No, that’s about all I wanted to say about that.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

91. Michael Young – Old is as Young does.  2010 Projections:  75/14/90/.315/10

92. Aramis Ramirez – Kinda wanted to drop Aramis out of the top 100, but his position saves him.  2010 Projections:  75/25/95/.290

93. Dan Uggla – According to Uggla, Hanley doesn’t give it his all.  Uggla should see if he can have some of whatever it is Hanley is holding back.  2010 Projections:  90/32/100/.250/3

94. Wandy Rodriguez – I’ve said this before so skip ahead if you’ve already heard this from me… Then again you might not know what I’m going to say until I say it… Anyhoo!  Weird how some people break out and no one believes it while others break out and they shoot up the rankings.  Wandy was solid last year; his only concern is health.  If healthy, he’s fine.  2010 Projections:  13-11/3.55/1.27/190

95. Chad Billingsley – Same boat as Hamels with less WHIP potential.  2010 Projections:  16-8/3.50/1.32/190

96. Heath Bell – First closer I could see myself owning.  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

97. Lance Berkman – Unlike beef, going from prime to aged isn’t great.  2010 Projections:  70/23/85/.285/3

98. Billy Butler -  Upside and luscious moobs.  2010 Projections:  85/25/100/.295

99. Ian Stewart – I wanted to end the top 100 with Stewart cause I’m crushing hard.  To read more about him, go directly to my Ian Stewart fantasy.  If you see wavy lines like in a dream sequence, it’s completely normal.  2010 Projections:  85/29/100/.260/10