Fantasy Baseball Advice

It’s been a while since I went through all the major league closers and their setup men and where they should be ranked. So I figured I’d break it down for you because knowing all the closers and all of their setup man could be helpful for all of you. A million dollars and a naked Christina Ricci chained to your furnace could also be helpful, but I don’t have a furnace. Anyway, all the major league closers and their setup men seems like something all fantasy baseball players could use, so here it is. BTW, do you see how giving I am? I’m like Jolie-giving. Seriously, I should be wearing a habit and carrying a Malaysian orphan in a baby sling while talking on my solar-powered cellphone.

NO-BRAINERS

This tier is filled with a bunch of no-brainers (Papelbon — a no-brainer! Get it? Oofa!). These closers could get you the most in any trade. I would not hesitate to trade away any of these guys for the right price. In the end, closers are here to get you saves. You could end up with more saves from Rauch than Joe Nathan. When stacked with closers, unstack and trade.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Matt Guerrier, Dennys Reyes)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Justin Speier, Scot Shields)
4. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)
5. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
6. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)
7. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)

BRAINERS

These closers seem like they have a lot more risk than they actually do. It takes a real brainer to see how potentially valuable some of these brainers are. If you trade a no-brainer for a brainer and another player, you’re likely coming out on top.

8. Joakim Soria, KAN (Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez)
9. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
10. Jon Rauch, WAS (Luis Ayala)
11. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Scott Linebrink, Octavio Dotel)
12. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena, Chad Qualls)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell, Cla Meredith)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Doug Brocail)
15. Brian Fuentes, COL (Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz)
16. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow, Sean Green)
17. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)
18. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker)
19. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Renyel Pinto)
20. Kerry Wood, CHC (Bob Howry, Carlos Marmol)
21. George Sherrill, BAL (Bunch of Schmohawks)

BRAIN FREEZE

At some point soon, you’re going to squeeze your temples and grimace like you just ate a pint of Dreyer’s. All of these guys should be traded after they go on a string of few saved games, assuming they go on a string of a few saved games.

22. Huston Street, OAK (Keith Foulke, Joey Devine)
23. Troy Percival, TAM (Dan Wheeler, Al Reyes)
24. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Scott Downs)
25. Manny Acosta, Rafael Soriano, Blaine Boyer, et al, ATL (John Smoltz)
26. Rafael Betancourt/Masa Kobayashi, CLE (Joe Borowski)
27. Todd Jones, DET (Clay Rapada, Aquilino Lopez, Fernando Rodney)
28. Eric Gagne, MIL (Salomon Torres, G. Mota)
29. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
30. Ryan Franklin/Russ Springer, STL (Jason Isringhausen)

(NOTE FROM GREY: Last week I sent out feelers to the top baseball team blogs to see if they would be generous enough to write a quick preview for their favorite team. So over the course of the next two weeks, mixed in with your daily fantasy info, you will get some of the most astute, in-depth coverage of teams around the major leagues for the upcoming 2008 season from the people that know these teams best. Each post will include a link to their site, please take time to visit these bloggers’ sites, because these posts are truly the tip of the iceberg for their team knowledge. Now enjoy the 2008 Baltimore Orioles preview.)

In the offseason, Orioles’ VP and defacto GM Andy MacPhail finally started a rebuilding process that has been needed for the last decade. The off-season tone was much different. No over the hill stopgap players were signed. Trades were made. No false assurances were made by Peter Angelos that this team can win some games. The 2008 Baltimore Orioles will not be a good team, they could easily lose 100 games. With rebuilding though, a 100 lose team with future potential will be better than a 80 lose team with aging downside vets. Stars Erik Bedard and Miguel Tejada were traded for prospects as the build for the future philosophy has been embraced. Brian Roberts could be traded aaannnnyyyy time now.

Pitching

The trade of Erik Bedard to the Mariners has left a gapping hole at the start of the rotation. There were nasty rumors that Steve Trachsel would get the nod on opening day, but instead Jeremy Guthrie will. Guthrie had a great first half of the 2007 season. Before the All-Star Break he went 4-2 with a 2.74 ERA, after the break he went 3-3 with a 5.03 ERA before getting shut down for the season. This season will show whether Guthrie will be a viable major league pitcher or a flash in the pan. Daniel Cabrera is being looked at as the number two pitcher. For his career, he’s been looked at as a diamond in the rough. He has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to harness it. Last season’s 9-18 debacle pushed me to my limit with Cabrera. Amazing arm, but anything that goes wrong goes to his head and the floodgates open. He had his second consecutive 100 walk season last year with 108. His ERA ballooned to a robust 5.55 for 2007. Cabrera’s last two pitching coaches have been Ray Miller and Leo Mazzone, if new pitching coach Rick Krantiz can turn Cabrera around, a statue of him should be erected at the Yard. Adam Loewen missed most of last season with shoulder surgery. A screw was put in there and hope is he’ll rebound. The spring has not been kind to him with short outings and control issues. I hope he’s getting the rust off, but I worry about him. Steve Trachsel will have the four spot. Trachsel is a stopgap, preventing the O’s to do what they’ve done so much over the years. They rush a young pitching up to big club with not enough time in the minors because the rotation stinks. The young pitcher gets shelled and after a few times out, he’s sent back down and forgotten. Trachsel will eat innings, put us to sleep, be mediocre, and hold a spot until one of the young arms is truly ready to go. Matt Albers and Brian Burres are competing for the five spot. Albers, who came via the Tejada trade to Houston, seems to be the favorite. Burres started some last season but seems, in my opinion, to be better suited as long relief. The rotation doesn’t look pretty now, but with the likes of Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, Hayden Penn, Brandon Erbe, Pedro Beato, the injured Troy Patton, Tim Bascom, Radhames Liz, Garret Olson, and Chorye Spoone in the minors, the rotation can only get better over time, we hope.

Bullpen

The Baltimore bullpen has been brutally bad over the past few seasons. Retreads come and go, quality arms get overworked and rendered useless. The pen this year could be ok. Danys Baez and his horrible contract will be out for the season. Chris Ray will be out for the better part of the season. George Sherrill, acquired in the Bedard deal, will be the closer. Sherrill could be a nice surprise for O’s fans, but the question is ‘how many save opportunites will he get?” Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford were stellar last season. Walker was the most dependable arm in the pen. Bradford was mostly reliable but at times his outings were hellish tightrope acts. Dennis Sarfate, acquired through the Tejada trade, is a power arm added to the pen. The loser of the Burres/Albers battle for the rotation spot will be a long reliever. Randor Bierd, a rule 5er from Detroit, and Greg Acquino seem locked into spots in the pen. Rocky Cherry has had a nice spring, but looks to be the odd man out (to Norfolk) due to option issues with everyone else.

Position Players

The outfield could be one of the better ones in years. Nick Markakis had a great season with 23 HR and 112 RBI and only looks to be getting better. He appears to a cornerstone that the O’s can build around him. He’s been the pretty much the exception to the rule about the O’s farm over the past decade. Playing along side him now is newly acquired CF Adam Jones, the centerpiece of the Bedard trade. Jones has been said to be a Tori Hunter/Mike Cameron blend player. It’s going to be a year or two to see if Jones will be as good or better than those players, but getting him is a big win for the O’s. Luke Scott will be the primary leftfielder. Scott has power, but had limited playing time in Houston. In Baltimore, he should have plenty of time in left and get some hits. Jay Payton, Tike Redman, Jay Gibbons, and Scott Moore will be vying for reserve time in the OF. Moore is going to be more of a super utility player. Payton’s a declining player (how can you decline if you’ve never really been good?) with a bad contract who the O’s will trade at their first chance. Gibbons was a horrible contract (If we’re lucky, the FO will release him and just eat the money left on the contract. I have nothing further about Gibbons to say that doesn’t involved expletives) from the previous regimes that the O’s would love to shed, but no other team is that foolish. Redman, if Payton gets traded, would be the 4th outfielder.

In the infield, Kevin Millar will anchor first base and sadly be the clean-up hitter. Millar can work a count and get some hits, but he’s in the twilight of his career. A player like him is good to have on a rebuilding team to be a rah-rah team guy, but to have him hitting clean-up shows you the state of the O’s. Brian Roberts, at the moment, is still an Oriole. The trade with the Chicago Cubs could happen tomorrow or never. If he stays with the O’s, they have one of the best speed guy and lead-off hitters in the game. Roberts can get on base and change game with his steals and speed. Smart money is that he’ll start the season as an O but will be traded at some point in the season. Melvin Mora will still be at third, with Scott Moore (hopefully) taking over at some point. Mora’s in the downside of his career and was unwisely given a nice contract mere moments before his decline. Scott Moore came from the Cubs and has had a nice spring and will hopefully make the team and getting playing time. Moore has a nice pop to his bat and could pan out to be a good third baseman. Luis Hernandez and Brandon Fahey are vying for the shortstop job. Both of these guys are the classic all glove and no hit guys, that’s the best that I can say about them. Aubrey Huff will see time at DH and 1st this season. He’ll go through his yearly slow start (1st half of the season) before hitting his midseason stride (hit for the cycle one day, strikeout four times the next game).

Ramon Hernandez is back at catcher. Ramon had an bad year last season and had a recurring oblique injury. Refreshed and in camp in better shape, he could return to form. This is probably his last season in Baltimore with Matt Wieters being the catcher of the future. A trade to Mets makes sense. Guillermo Quiroz appears to have won the backup catcher job with a solid spring.

Vets like Mora, Payton, Huff, Millar, and any other player over 30 could and probably will be dealt during the season to get more prospects and to open up positions for young players to man. I’ll cheer the day when the last of the Flannagan/Duquette regime’s troop of 1st base/DH only players are gone.

Fantasy Players must haves
Not really many on the O’s but here’s a few that are good ones
Nick Markakis- He had 23 HR and 112 RBI. He’s only getting better and you should expect something along the lines of this this season.

George Sherrill- Hasn’t closed in the majors before, but will have the job with the O’s this season. The only worry is lack of save chances.

Luke Scott- If you’re looking for a 4th outfielder to use, Scott could be a nice pickup. Scott has shown that he can hit in his limited time in Houston. In Camden, he could have some get production as long as deadweight like Payton and Gibbons don’t steal his playing time.

Brian Roberts- He doubtfully will be an Oriole all season, but he still is now. Roberts is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game. He can get on base and steal bases. Roberts one of my favorites, I’ve got his jersey. Something tells me I need to go ahead and get that Nick Markakis jersey.

Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford could have a little fantasy value too. I like Walker better than Bradford, but both are decent.

So it’s probably going to be a long season. I don’t think we’ll lose 100 games, but I still have a little optimism left in me. The O’s could be slightly better than we think (or rather less worse) but it depends on the starting pitching. If the pitching fares poorly, well…I’ve been through ten losing seasons, an 11th wouldn’t kill me.

Ben runs Oriole Central.

Major league closers are probably in the highest stress position on their team. So I guess it’s only appropriate that they cause us the most agita. I’ve already explained that I won’t draft any closers in the first tier. Rudy Gamble broke down why he does grab a closer in the first tier. Anyway, what are these tiers and who are in them? Here’s all the closers and their setup men going into the 2008 season. Side note, closers need guile, charisma and whole lot of I-just-don’t-give-a-fark, not unlike some of the characters that were portrayed on The Wire, a show that I’m sadder to see end than any in past memory. So in honor of the series finale of The Wire, I’ve named the tiers after some of The Wire’s more memorable characters.

Clay Davis – This tier comprises closers that will make you smile every time they make their appearance. Papelbon is lights out on arguably the best team in the majors. Nathan has a track record that is better than anyone in the game, except for maybe Rivera, but has an age advantage. Putz’s numbers last year were Cy Young-worthy and there’s no reason to think he can’t be as good this year. K-Rod’s delivery has made the critics say he’s doomed for the DL and every year he’s great. Shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiit!

1. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS (Hideki Okajima)
2. Joe Nathan, MIN (Pat Neshek)
3. J.J. Putz, SEA (Brandon Marrow)
4. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA (Scot Shields)
5. Mariano Rivera, NYY (Joba Chamberlain)

Omar Little – This tier compromises closers that have the emotion and the stuff to get the job done, but they could get taken out at any time. Francisco Cordero ventures to a hitter’s park. Member what happened to him in Arlington? Chad Cordero may not be long for the Nats, but he’s shown he can close a game as well as he can wear a low, wide-brimmed hat. Saito is backed by the most obvious closer-in-waiting. I don’t even think Jenks believes the year he had last year. Soriano has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, yet still gives up dingers. Capps might end up the most reliable from this group, but on far the worst team.

6. Francisco Cordero, CIN (David Weathers)
7. Chad Cordero, WAS (Jon Rauch)
8. Takashi Saito, LAD (Jonathan Broxton)
9. Bobby Jenks, CHW (Octavio Dotel)
10. Rafael Soriano, ATL (Peter Moylan)
11. Matt Capps, PIT (Damaso Marte)

Proposition Joe – This tier comprises closers that are no newcomers to their position of stress, and they will be absolutely fine this year as long as nothing unforeseen happens. Wagner, Hoffman and Isringhausen should all be trusted, but all three can remember when Hoffman’s entrance song was new, so there’s the age thing. Valverde can save 45 or he can be sent back to the minors to figure things out.

12. Billy Wagner, NYM (Aaron Heilman)
13. Trevor Hoffman, SDG (Heath Bell)
14. Jose Valverde, HOU (Oscar Villarreal)
15. Jason Isringhausen, STL (Ryan Franklin)

Stringer Bell – This tier comprises closers that have the stuff for the long haul, but something tells me their tenure isn’t going to last long. Corpas has good stuff, but Fuentes was more than serviceable. A few hiccups from Corpas and he could end up figuring things out in the seventh inning of blow outs. Huston Street will be traded, maybe to a team that doesn’t need someone for the ninth. Howry and Marmol will share the lion’s share of the saves. Brian Wilson is hardly safe as there’s already grumblings that Tyler Walker will get some opportunities. Soria’s on the Royals and Ryan’s recovery is too fast to not spell trouble.

16. Manny Corpas, COL (Brian Fuentes)
17. Huston Street, OAK (Joey Devine)
18. Bob Howry, CHC (Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol)
19. B.J. Ryan, TOR (Jeremy Accardo)
20. Joakim Soria, KAN (Joel Peralta)
21. Brian Wilson, SAN (Tyler Walker, Brad Hennessey)

Marlo Stanfield – This tier comprises closers that are fit to do the job, but the men behind them are more badass and better suited. Brandon Lyon better watch out for Tony Pena. Kevin Gregg has two looming in Lindstrom and Tankersley. Sherrill better look out for the entire bullpen. Borowski and Todd Jones, Betancourt and Rodney, respectively.

22. Joe Borowski, CLE (Rafael Betancourt)
23. Todd Jones, DET (Fernando Rodney)
24. Brandon Lyon, ARI (Tony Pena)
25. Kevin Gregg, FLA (Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley)
26. George Sherrill, BAL (entire bullpen, namely Greg Aquino, Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford)

Ziggy Sobotka – This tier comprises closers that you hope die, whether you own them or not. I liked Lidge two months ago, now he’s injured and I wouldn’t trust him to carry Barmes’s deer meat. Gagne will make you wish you drafted Garrett Anderson in the 18th round. If Wilson makes it out of spring training as the closer, he won’t last until tax day as the sole closer. Percival was retired this time last year. Nuff said.

27. Eric Gagne, MIL (Derrick Turnbow)
28. C.J. Wilson, TEX (Eddie Guardado, Joaquin Benoit)
29. Troy Percival, TAM (Al Reyes)
30. Brad Lidge, PHI (Tom Gordon)

We’ve gone over a few lists of sleepers. Gave you some draft lists. Even chucked a player rater your way. This here? This is a sleeper closer list. You won’t find Mariano Rivera on this list, cause he’s not a potential closer. He is a closer. Nathan? Nope. George Sherrill? Yeah, he’ll be here. Got it? Okay, let’s look at a few teams and some potential closers for 2008.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Troy Percival

Al Reyes – Why did they trade for Percival? A guy who was retired this time last year compared to a guy who was their closer last year. It’s really surprising the Devil Rays are perennial losers; they make such astute baseball moves.

Kansas City Royals – Joakim Soria

Yasuhiko Yabuta – His numbers in Japan were good for Japan, but not great (2.73/1.18). Soria struggled at times to understand that strikeouts are good and walks not good. Tomko has been rumored to be in line if Soria fails, but I didn’t put his name down because Tomko will never be a successful closer and he shouldn’t be drafted in any leagues including 16-team AL-only leagues.

Baltimore Orioles – An in-house mess

Chad Bradford – The Orioles are going into Spring Training with a closer buffet of crap, unless they trade for someone. Bradford is the best arm but all signs seem to want to keep him in the seventh or eighth. There’s a chance the next guy might be their savior (get it?).

George Sherrill – The trade of Bedard to send Adam Jones and Sherrill seems just about complete with Bedard going for a physical as I type this. So Sherrill gets traded and take over immediately as the Orioles closer. Last year his ERA/WHIP was 2.36/.99. He carries a great strand rate, as well. By draft time, he may not even be much of a sleeper anymore. Shoot, by next week.

Florida Marlins – Kevin Gregg

Taylor Tankersley – Do you think Kevin Gregg has another good season in him? The Tank hasn’t shown the promise yet in the majors and he’s a lefty. Maybe he never becomes the closer of the future for the Marlins, then again he’s only 24.

Texas Rangers – C.J. Wilson

Eddie Guardado – The Rangers gave Wilson the role last year and then took it from him as he succeeded. This proves one thing; they don’t like him in the role. By June of ‘08, Everyday Eddie could be simultaneously the worst closer in the majors and have a secure job. I’d run from this, but if you need saves you gotta do it. New math, Guardado + Arlington = Mylanta

New York Mets – Billy Wagner

Aaron Heilman – Wagner made a total meltdown (along with the team) last September. It probably was nothing, but he complained of back pain and he’s going to be 36 this year. I will be drafting Heilman on at least one team this year because the Mets will have late inning comebacks wins this year. Saves for Heilman? Possibly.

There will be more potential closers to come.