25 Responses

  1. Black Beard says:
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    Rudy, nice to see you back. Thanks for your work on Point Shares.

    Wondering if you can help me out. 10 team, 7 keeper league (must keep at least one pitcher), 6×5 (+OPS). No restrictions on the keepers.

    Pence and CC too much to give up for Pedroia? Thanks man.

    • Black Beard says:
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      @Black Beard, also, no other 2b keeper to speak of and Hamilton, Kemp and Felix already being kept. Thanks again!

      • @Black Beard, Were you planning on keeping Pence and/or CC? If not, seems like an okay move. I wouldn’t love that move if I was in your league though :)

        • Black Beard says:
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          @Rudy Gamble, are you in my league…

          You wouldn’t like it because it’s too much to give up to try to upgrade your keepers?

          • @Black Beard, i can see being frustrated that the pedroia owner got two keepers for one. it’s a lopsided trade in a non-keeper league but those types of trades are to be expected in keeper leagues.

  2. Hustler says:
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    Rudy,

    Can’t wait. I think the Razzball community would be really interested if you also included Grey’s rankings in your Point Share analysis.

    • @Hustler, Thanks. Good idea. I’ll add Grey’s rankings into the spreadsheet. Not much I could do, though, about factoring it into the analysis.

  3. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    great rudy,looking forward to more of your wisdom

    • KeeblerMN says:
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      @Rudy Gamble, I get the same “You don’t have access to this” message. Doubt if you want to be granting access to everybody.

        • MA says:
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          @Rudy Gamble, “Form” button is grayed-out, can’t click on it…

          • @MA, yeah, not sure what the issue is. will just post the results this week.

  4. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    I get “you don’t have permission to access this item.”

    • @VinWins, Damn. I made it public and everything. Will permission you manually.

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Thanks. I can see it now.

  5. BWC says:
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    Do you use Grey’s projections for calculating point shares or are they different? He seems to provide enough slash stats to use them and I’d really enjoy being able to incorporate them into my system (which weights a few projections systems and applies a z-score valuation process0.

    • @BWC, I build the Point Shares using a couple of projection sources (using ZiPs and Steamer this year) and 1-2 playing time sources (using Rotochamp and Fantistics this year). I would need Grey to provide Plate Appearances or ABs for every hitter and IP for every pitcher to adjust his totals to match the playing time sources. I then create virtual rosters for each league format to determine the value of each player vs. the average at their position. I’d suggest comparing your rankings against Point Shares as a way to identify potential biases – e.g., you might overcredit HR vs. SBs, etc.

      • BWC says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, So you’re waiting on ZIPS and Steamer too. I threw in Clay Davenports and Cairo (since they were out) and I have an upcoming draft. Any chance Grey would provide the PA’s and IP numbers? I’d love to take his projections and see how he did compared to everyone else at year end. I’ll definitely compare to Point shares (particularly if we end up using the same projections systems).

        • @BWC, Yeah, I think ZiPs and Steamer are due out any day now. Grey’s probably too busy at this point to add AB/IP but I’ll ask him…

  6. BWC says:
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    Oh, one other question. Why do you compare to the average at each position and not over replacement level at the position? If there is a big drop off after the average value (let’s say in First Base), versus a position that has a pretty consistent decline (maybe second and short), wouldn’t it get skewed?

    • @BWC, Great question. If there was no UTIL/CI/MI positions, I’d use replacement value. But because there are, this strips deep positions (1B/OF) so that every position’s replacement value (except for C) is equally valuable. This masks the impact it would have on a team if you replaced your starting 1B vs. SS. (and if you determine replacement value pre-UTIL assignment, then it’s not based in reality).

      The other factor is that using replacement value means a Point Share would be the impact a player would have on the worst possible team (1′s across the board). But that’s an extreme. That total will overestimate the impact for any team that isn’t in first place. For example, imagine a new Rickey Henderson enters the league and steals 120 SB. On a last place time in a 12-team league, that might be worth 8 points. But if you have a team w/ average speed, the max he could provide is 5.5 (average is 6.5). While the Point Share gain is relative to each team’s position, the best proxy would be the midpoint/average vs. the lowest.

      Hope that helps!
      Rudy

  7. peter says:
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    Great stuff, Rudy. Just wanted to say that, per usual, I’m very much looking forward to your point shares and $ values. Many thanks.

  8. CT Old School says:
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    As always, you make my mind reel.

  9. Joel says:
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    I have a keeper/GameDayRitual team, which is pretty awesome. If it didn’t cost $25/owner just to play, it probably would be more popular.

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