Grey has already done up his top 100 list for the 2nd half of the season based on his proprietary formula that combines moxie, opinion, cheekiness, and the occasional statistic.
Now that Dan Szymborski – the man behind ZiPS projections – is providing free ‘rest of season’ projections at FanGraphs, I figured I’d see what the Point Shares would look like. I’ve posted the 12 team MLB Point Shares under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings tab in the top menu.
I’ve made no changes to Dan’s projections except for knocking down the AB’s (and adjusting the other stats proportionally) for a few injured players.
The results are interesting to say the least (which is an odd saying…if that’s the least you can say about something, it’s pretty damn good. When I ask my lady how sex was and she says “Interesting to say the least”, I figure every adjective ‘more’ than interesting is positive. A diss would be more ‘Interesting to say the most” which is pretty harsh. The most I could say is it made a ripple in the tedium that fills my day…)
In any case, the main theme in this data is that 1H 2010 DOES play a factor in projecting 2H results (Mauer’s previous 19 HR season has been scaled to 7 HRs in the 2nd half. Bautista is projected for 10 more HRs in 2nd half after an initial projection of 14 HRs for the whole year) BUT it’s not everything.
Dan Haren – who started the season at #6 on our MLB 12 Team Point Shares (based on blended ZiPS and CHONE stats) – is #8 based on 2nd half projections despite a so-so 1st half and his historical struggles in the 2nd half. On the flip side, David Price is #260 despite having excellent stats to date.
So give it a look….it should be interesting to say the least (or most)….
P.S. We’re just running the Point Shares for MLB 12 team vs. all the league and team versions for the 1st half. Sorry.