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Could Jake Peavy really be a sleeper for 2009 fantasy baseball?  Um, kinda.  Sorry, that wasn’t normal confidence that one expects from an alumni of the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston who studied under Matthew Berry, D.F. (No, that’s not Dumb F—.)  I should be shouting from the rooftops that Peavy is a fantasy sleeper for 2009 if I really believe it.  Well, I do and I don’t.  I really believe Peavy is going to put up top starter numbers that could land him in the top five overall for fantasy value at the end of the year.  What I don’t believe is that he’s a sleeper.  How has this guy fallen to the fifth rounds of some 2009 drafts?  Is he suddenly a different pitcher in 2009 than he was going into 2008?  No.  So why is he dropping so low?

Cause people are acting like stewpid bizzlenitches.  People are jacking Tim Lincecum all over the place like he’s guaranteed to win another 18 games.  I mean, the Giants did get Renteria and all, but, seriously, WHAT THE EFF?  (Sorry for caps, but I’m slightly annoyed that I’m seeing Peavy going in the fifth round.)  This is not 2008.  We’re drafting for 2009.  Peavy can easily win 17 games in 2009 and Lincecum can win 12.  Not to mention, Lincecum’s innings were high last year.  Now, I’m not saying I’m down on Lincecum.  It’s an example, people.  Snap!  Get off my back or I will attack and you don’t want that.  You know what else could realistically happen?  Peavy gets traded to a pennant-chasing team and he gets even more opportunities for wins.  Oh, and I don’t buy that an exit from Petco will hurt his value very much at all, so don’t try to sell me on that As Seen On TV shizz, Snuggie.

Some may look at the injury Peavy dealt with in 2008 as a reason to lower him.  Let’s take a sip of the Kool-Aid from the half-filled cup, shall we?  The time Peavy missed last year allowed him to rest a bit more, saving some innings on his arm and now he can come back even stronger in 2009.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  Jake Peavy may not be a sleeper in the traditonal sense, but he’s going lower than he should be in 2009 fantasy baseball drafts.

23 Responses

  1. sean says:
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    With an ADP of 44, he’s being drafted in the neighborhood of the first catchers off the board. I’d have to think there’s more value in Peavy than Russell Martin going 80/15/65/15/.280.

    I don’t know that I’m jumping up in the third to take him, but I’m not a big believer in early pitching. With a little run support, he could be the #1 SP overall. It’s criminal to see him go in the fifth.

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: The fact that Russell Martin’s going in the same neighborhood of Peavy is exactly that, criminal. Ugh, I’m getting mad again.

  3. Eric W says:
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    lets just hope the Americans get knocked out early in the wbc to keep his arm as fresh as possible going in to the season

  4. sean says:
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    @eric: I wouldn’t how long it is before we see anti-WBC clauses in stars’ contracts…

  5. sean says:
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    wonder, that is…

  6. chuck says:
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    I don’t mean to jump the gun, but I’m interested in seeing how you feel about Erik Bedard. He seems to be going crazy late in mocks for someone that was a top 10 SP at the beginning of last season. Not that he exactly deserves to go sooner, but he seems to be a pretty sneaky late round pick.

  7. Jason says:
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    I like to use my cheat sheets from the year prior late in the draft to find sleepers. Get them in that post-year post-hype stage.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chuck: There’s a time and a place, and obviously he comes with caveats. I’d trust him more than Harden at this point and would definitely classify him as someone to look at late. Actually, anyone that can put up a K/IP is someone you need to look at.

    @Jason: That’s a great idea and I do a similar thing when I go over my rankings. Just because someone performed poorly in 2008 (Gordon), doesn’t mean you should disregard them fully if they’re young with potential.

  9. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    sounds like something my 3rd grade teacher, mrs. topping , use to tell me . (‘cept my name’s not gordon)

  10. Doug Ault says:
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    @Grey: So Peavy is this year’s Abert Pujols,with a slimmer waistline?,……maybe he’d be cheaper to scam in a trade

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Doug Ault: Decent analogy, but Peavy’s more baffling to me. There’s no threat of shutting it down this year because of injury. Peavy is 27 years old coming off a year where he threw 170+ IP and an under 2.85 ERA and nearly a K/IP. Um, that’s bad? People are overrating Wins. Don’t go chasing Wins, people. Or they’re reading too much into the WBC.

  12. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Peavy’s career performance against the NL Central is +15% better than against the NL West.
    Career against the West: 36-23, 3.57 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.89K/BB, 3.00 BB/9, 8.68 K/9
    Career against the Central: 23-11, 2.41 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 3.24 K/BB, 2.89 BB/9, 9.36 K/9
    That’s 48% lower ERA, 7% lower WHIP, 12% higher K/BB, 4% lower BB/9, 8% higher K/9 and 11% higher win percentage (.676 to .610). Overall an average +15% improved performance. These stats reflect seven years against the entire Central Division. Given a minimal threshhold of 40 innings pitched, there was not a single pitcher in all of Major League Baseball in 2008 that matched Peavy’s CAREER 3.24 K/BB, 2.89 BB/9, 9.36 K/9 against the Central division—not one.

  13. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Grey, I would appreciate your review of my analysis of Peavy, comment #12.

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fred Barker: Sorry, man, I don’t know what you’re looking for from me. I think it’s a very solid point. It could be explained away a bit that he excels against those hitters/teams because they aren’t that good. Or maybe the West just knows him better and can exploit the few flaws he might have. Either way, it reinforces my post, doesn’t it? I think he’s just one of the top pitchers in the majors, no matter where he pitches. And if he were to be traded to the AL mid-season, he’d be pitching against people who know of him even less.

  15. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Thanks, Grey. Yes, it does support your post. Just wanted you to know that there is a little love out here for ya’ (not the man-kind).

  16. Tim says:
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    Grey, I read the other day that Peavy had some difficulties after he pitched in the 2006 WBC. Now that he is pitching in the 2009 WBC, are you at all worried?

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tim: I am worried a bit, but is he more riskier than Johan, whose numbers have gone down the last two years and has arm pain in the spring? Or more worried about Webb’s Win Karma catching up to him? No. Pitchers are inherently risky, and I’d draft Peavy at the right spot. Say the 4th round.

  18. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Dumb question, but is that 4th round in a 10- or 12-teamer?

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I wouldn’t hesitate to grab Peavy in the 40s. So 10 team.

  20. Steve says:
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    @Grey: So, 12-team you’d take him mid to late 3rd round?
    Or still hope that he falls into the 4th?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Late 3rd round, early 4th.

  22. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Cheers mate!

Comments are closed.