Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Punting catcher doesn’t mean you don’t want anything from your catcher spot.  I don’t draft A.J. Pierzynski while waving a white flag.  I just try and get value later on.  Which brings us to Geovany Soto.  Last year, Geovany Soto burned a whole lot of people who drafted a catcher early.  Soto’s 2009 was off the charts unlucky.  His BABIP went from .337 in 2008 to .251 last year.  I.e. His average should come up to .270 levels.  His power was zapped because of a shoulder injury.  When he started to get healthy in June, he hit 6 homers that month.  Then an oblique injury sidelined him.  Bad luck followed by terrible luck.  But that’s all behind him.  Let’s look at Geovany Soto for 2010 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper.

From 2008 to 2009, everything that was in Soto’s control went in the right direction.  His walk rate went up, his strikeout rate went down, the amount of pitches he swung at outside the strike zone went down.  When he did swing the bat, he hit more pitches inside and outside the strike zone then he did the previous year.  Even the amount of homers he hit compared to how many fly balls showed he was unlucky.  With a year removed from the injuries, I see no reason why Soto can’t come close to equaling his Rookie of the Year, um, year.  Think 20 homers and a .275 average.  Oh, and this is as much about Geovany Soto for 2010 fantasy baseball as about the schmohawks around him on draft boards.  Jorge Posada?  He turned 57 years old last year.  Russell Martin?  He’s Crapolanco at catcher.  Whatevs.  Kurt Suzuki is Russell Martin for the fantasy baseballer who overthinks things.  Explanation:  Some people think Russell Martin is good, then there’s some people who think Martin’s good but overrated.  Then there’s a select few who think Martin’s good, overrated and Suzuki can do the same for cheaper.  These people are like Alexander Bogdanov.  The Russian scientist who thought he could achieve eternal youth with blood transfusions then died of a blood transfusion.  As long as Soto stays low on draft boards, he’s definitely someone to look at later in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.

From Around The Web

  1. bill says:
    (link)

    Soto, Miguel Montero. Compare/contrast please.

  2. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Im guilty of the Posada and Suzuki pickups in the 10th round or so :(

    I’ll heed your advice. This frees me up to take Jay Bruce, CarGo, Nyger Morgan, or even Ubaldo Jimenez in the 10th or 11th.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @bill: Montero is 17-20 homers, .280 average. Soto’s 17-20 homers and a .270 average. From what I’ve been seeing so far, Soto is coming much cheaper than Montero. I like both though.

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: There ya go.

  5. Big Mike says:
    (link)

    No Phillie comes cheap, but is Carlos Ruiz a value late? How would he compare to Montero/Soto in terms of stats projection and round selected?

  6. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Who do you think’ll break out more, CarGo or Bruce? Even though he seems amazing, I fear that CarGo will pull a B.J Upton for 2010. But then again Coors field is his homepark….. And Bruce I love, but As I posted on the previous topic, my average tends t suck as it is.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Big Mike: Ruiz is bleh. He’s a waiver wire catcher in most 12 team single catcher leagues. Might hit 12 homers with a poor average.

    @Eddy: Bruce will hurt you on average, but I like him slightly more than CarGo.

  8. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Edge to Bruce for the extra power?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Power and seasoning.

  10. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Not to mention his (admittedly not seen since his rookie season) ability to turn water into wine.

  11. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @Grey:fantasy football is over,took 1st in 2 leagues and 3rd in my money league,won the consilation(3rd)in rcl league,i dont care for playoffs in ffb or even counting the final week but i take what is there,ready to study up for baseball with grey and gang,whooo,raaa,I like soto and bruce as cheap pickups this year,but youve got me a bit worried about vazquez,dont know what i can get for him but i might try to shop him around

  12. Bristol says:
    (link)

    @Grey You have been in a couple of mocks so far. What round have you been seeing Soto go in? How many taken before him?

  13. 101 M.P.H. says:
    (link)

    If your league counts bong hits, you should bump Soto at least a couple of rounds on your draft list.

    On a related note:

    “Kurt Suzuki is Russell Martin for the fantasy baseballer who overthinks things.” — HA!!! I laughed out loud when I read this. When you sit around all winter long (with seasonal affective disorder) waiting for a fantasy baseball draft or auction, your mind can start to play tricks on you. You can delude yourself into thinking that Clint Barmes is the poor man’s Chase Utley. Thank you, Gray, for the slap in the face that jars us back to reality.

  14. Bristol says:
    (link)

    Anyone on here know of another fantasy hosting service for points leagues that is similar to CBS? The guys in our league are griping about the cost of CBS and we are looking for other options. Any ideas?

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: True.

    @AL KOHOLIC: Congrats on the high finish at football. Yeah, I’m worried about Vazquez too.

    @Bristol: I took him here: http://razzball.com/a-mocking-we-go/ In the 11th round, but that was a 2 catcher league, so you can probably hold of until 12th or 13th round of single catcher leagues.

    @101 M.P.H.: No problem, glad you liked it.

    @Bristol: I pay for CBS in one of my leagues and I think it’s worth it when you split the cost between everyone. Not sure of another service for points.

  16. Cain Fan says:
    (link)

    I think yahoo actually does a pretty good job with their site for fantasy baseball. Granted I only use it in the roto setting not points but there are a ton of options to select for roto so I am sure they are available for points. Its free to check out so you can fool around with it when they are available.

  17. Xar says:
    (link)

    Question re: catchers. I’m in a twelve team keeper league where we retain 5 guys year to year. I’m definitely keeping Pujols and probably Lind, but then I have to choose three from:

    Brian McCann
    Ben Zobrist
    Aramis Ramirez (AMRAM))
    Alexei Ramirez
    Brandon Phillips
    Dread Pirate
    Josh Johnson
    Carlos Gonzalez

    My question is this: am I crazy to think I ought to keep McCann? It’s nice to plug him in at C and forget about him. Even if it means not having an only Chicago players named A. Ramirez left infield? I get that catchers aren’t great high picks, but does the equivalent of a fifth round pick acceptable for him?

  18. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Xar: I’d go with McCann, Phillips and Aramis.

  19. sean says:
    (link)

    Soto is definitely a prime sleeper candidate being touted by more camps than just we Razzballers. BABIP v. xBABIP numbers from last year really point to this as his expected BABIP was .057 higher at .308 than his horrific actual .251 BABIP.

    Guys like Soto really make me re-think the definition of a “sleeper.” It’s not so much throwing out a rookie that none of your buddies have heard of who absolutely kills it. It’s much more who can I get fifth round value out of in the teens, etc.

  20. Xar says:
    (link)

    @Grey: sorry, Carlos Quentin, not CarGo. That change anything?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Xar: Not really. If you want to toss Aramis back for CQ then I can understand it.

  22. Report: Red Sox ‘close to deal’ with Beltre

    Free agent third baseman Adrian Beltre is “close to a deal” with the Red Sox, according to SI.com’s Jon Heyman.

    Do you think Beltre could hit more than 8 homeruns playing for the redsox’s

    I have him in my dynasty league – and his defense does not do me any good – no category for those driving plays

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: Yeah, his value will go up on the Red Sox, so it depends on how cheap you have him and who you’re getting rid of to keep him.

  24. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: @Grey:

    I finished “dumb” in one league, “dummer” in another and “dummerer” in the RCL…………

    screw football injuries!

  25. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    Cardinals close to inking Holliday to a 7 year 120 mil contract.

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: Yeah. saw that. You must be stoked.

  27. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yah, and I’m gonna get baked as soon as he signs!

  28. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: @Grey: ah hell,ill get baked now!!!finishing up the bedroom in the basement

  29. Steve says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: @AL KOHOLIC: @Grey: Ah, you can take the boy out of the ‘heel…
    BTW, compliments of the season, Al.

  30. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @Steve: thanks,the playoff in football really suck,not anyones fault but they do,now we are ready for baseball,hey greg and steve,a.k.a steve and hippo,paulie would love to join our keeper baseball league,lets riddle roob with this newby

  31. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: Only if somebody drops out or we can get to 12 players. How would he draft?

  32. Steve says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: @BigFatHippo: Reckon roob can find another to get us to 112? That would be great.

  33. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: draft like we did last year silly

  34. looks like the Press my luck board came up Jackpot on Adrian Beltre

  35. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @AL KOHOLIC: tricks are for kids,,,silly hippo

  36. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    @Grey: beltre on the red sox,he will be overpriced for me i assume,but if he stays healthy he could put up some nice numbers

  37. Pat says:
    (link)

    I’m a Posada guy. People have been saying he’s too old for about 3 productive fantasy seasons now. He bats 6th in the best lineup in baseball and can get you 3-5 rbis on any given day, plays in the jetstream, and DH’s, which is great for his health and for leagues that have errors. He will get injured, but I feel comfortable predicting 275/20/80 rbi’s.

    Grey, what do you think of Miguel Montero next year?

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: No whammy, for sure.

    @AL KOHOLIC: In redraft leagues, yeah.

    @Pat: Posada was bad in 2008 and he has a lot of games behind the plate for his career. I’m not excited about him. I talked on Montero in comment #3.

  39. Pat says:
    (link)

    Right on about Montero. I know Posada isn’t exciting, but I think he gets drafted after Soto in most drafts and has a more than decent chance of outperforming him. At least for one more year. Plus, Suzyn Waldman calls him ‘Georgie’ and there’s also the ‘hip, hip, Jorge’ chant at Yankee stadium. (I’m not a Yankee fan) Those gotta count for something!

  40. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Pat:
    What are you talking about, Posada goes LATEST in Rd.10 in every mock draft I’ve done (about 9) and Soto falls to the 12th and 13th. Heck, today I nabbed Soto in the 14th in a TWO catcher draft. I like Jorge, but you have to believe in the Soto bounce back!!

  41. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Btw Grey, when will you do another mock draft?

  42. Pat says:
    (link)

    @Eddy- I have not seen many 2010 drafts as you seem to have, but mock draft central’s 1st has Posada and Soto going back-to-back in the 11th. (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/2010_fantasy_baseball_expert_draft_1.jsp)

    For me, it would be a tough call, but I would take Posada if they were both there in the 11th (or probably pass altogether). Posada may be old, but I trust his project numbers over Soto’s. That being said, Soto clearly has more upside.

  43. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: @Pat: FYI there’s a section in the forums where you can post the results of any mocks you do. Let’s everyone take a look, see where guys are being taken etc.

  44. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Pat:
    Pat, I would agree with you but you have to realize that was simply ONE mock draft. I’m glad you brought MDC into your argument because in that same website (which is the one i mock in) if you filter the ADP for catchers you’ll see that Posada has a 117.8 ADP while Soto has a 148.06. That’s a good 2-3 rounds between them, and as I mentioned before in a comment, in Rounds 10 and 11, where Posada normally goes, guys like Damon, Kershaw, Rios, U.Jimenez, Wieters, Vlad, Cuddyer, Kubel, CarGo, Denard Dawg, and Chipper are being drafted. There are better options and you can’t let Soto’s horrific season turn you away from him.

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: I think my next mock is next Wednesday.

  46. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    alright thanks for the heads up Grey. I just like picking your brain is all :P

  47. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Steve:
    thanks steve I’ll take a look and post up all my drafts

  48. Pat says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Did you hear about the ‘hip hip jorge’ chant? Just kidding. I totally agree that taking Posada in the 10,11th round is too early and I would pass on him for most of the guys you mentioned. He just seems to be underrated in my fantasy circles. In any case, I’m still not that excited about Soto. I have K’s in my league and I watched that guy get a Platinum Sombrero last year or the year before!

    Also, why does Damon go so late. I seem to draft him every year in the 10th and he delivers big time over that in average, HRs, SBs, Runs, and even RBI’s. He’ll obviously lose value if he leaves the Yanks.

  49. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Pat:
    Well if you play with Ks in your league than that certainly changes a lot of players’ values for your league, not just Soto’s.

    And I too believe Damon is a tad bit too low on the ADP list, but my guess would be because last year was a tremendous year for him, and he’s not consistent with those numbers. He’s only reached 24 HRs one other year (2004) and it was his third highest RBI in his career with the last highest coming in 2004. Not to mention he’s not much of SB threat and he’s passed his prime.

    But he did do wonders for me last season! Picked him out of the FA Pool early on and he hit 4 HRs and 11 RBis for me that week lol

  50. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Grey, in the Jason Bay post you said that HRs and SB are “genetic” so to speak. So would you agree that Nelson Cruz would repeat 2009s numbers give or take a few homers and steals? 20 steals was a giant jump from his previous years (albeit he didn’t get as many AB as he did in ’09)

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mrbaseball: Nice jpgs.

    @Eddy: He stole 24 in the minors so 20 isn’t a giant jump.

  52. GopherDay says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Thoughts on Wieters for next season? He seems to be taken roughly around the same place as last year, but with a whole season in front of him and he seemed toward the end of last season to get all of the Rookie jitters out of him.

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @GopherDay: I’m a fan for next year. Seems to be good 8-10th round value.

  54. Jo says:
    (link)

    ah grey, why do you have to go and advertise all my sleepers! the more you do this, the less chance i have at getting him!

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Jo: It’s Razzball, Dedicated to Fantasy Baseball Advice and Making Jo’s Life Difficult.

  56. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    I’M ON A 7 YEAR HOLLIDAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  57. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo:
    Looks like someone else is going on a PERMANENT vacation, Randy Johnson :(

    I would’ve loved to have drafted him in his prime.

    And as for Holliday, his value just sky rocketed simply because of that random he hits behind

  58. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, what do you make of Drew Stubbs?

  59. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Yeah, I’ll miss the big unit………not that I ever had a big unit but, well you know what I mean.

    @Grey: Hopefully next year I’ll be able to say, I’m Going on a 10 year Dominican Holliday!

  60. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Stubbs — SAGNOF. He’s a last round flier for speed. Not much else.

    @BigFatHippo: The Big Unit Beats It.

  61. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Ha, nice headline!

    I’ve been racking what’s left of my brain and I can’t beat that, you win, well done.

  62. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    Does remind me of a joke though, what’s the difference between meat and fish?

  63. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: If you beat your fish it’ll die.

    Ughh, somewhere down under a Kiwi is frantically searching for his fish…………..

  64. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, when I leave my top SP to rounds 4 and 5, I have a little difficulty deciding which of these pitchers will go on to have an above average year:

    Wainwright
    Cliff Lee
    Carpenter
    Lester
    Peavy

    What pitchers do you think will produce more?

  65. Steve says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: @Grey: The weird thing is, this afternoon I did actually take the girls fishing. And we caught nothing…

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Lee, Lester and Wainwright.

    @Steve: Should’ve stuck with your meat.

  67. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey can you comment on this mock draft of mine?
    C Miguel Montero R14
    1B Albert Pujols R1
    1B Kevin Youkilis R3
    SS Jimmy Rollins R2
    SS Erick Aybar R20
    3B Michael Young R8
    3B Ian Stewart R11
    OF Shin-Soo Choo R7
    OF Torii Hunter R9
    OF Michael CuddyerR10
    OF Colby Rasmus R17
    OF Dexter Fowler R18
    OF Franklin Gutierrez R21
    SP Adam Wainwright R4
    SP Chris Carpenter R5
    SP Jered Weaver R13
    SP Randy Wolf R15
    SP J.A. Happ R16
    SP Hiroki Kuroda R19
    RP Joe Nathan R6
    RP Andrew Bailey R12

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: I count about 95 steals, which isn’t great, and not a whole lot of power either. Not crazy about your outfield, don’t love your CI or MI and your starters leave something to be desired.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Oh, and if I had to pinpoint an area where you went wrong. Picks 2, 4, 5 and 6. Wainwright’s good but there was no reason to follow that with another starter then a closer.

  70. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    Well in defense of my SP and CL picks, I’ve been using this strategy where in the first 6 picks I cover 1B,3B,SS, 2 SP, and a closer. believe it or not it has actually been working for me, and anytime i try to deviate from that plan, it actually makes my team worse. And if you wanna get even more specific, I dedicate rounds 3 and 5 to SP (usually gets me a Felix and Wainwright combo), but Youk was still up in Rd.3 and I didn’t want to pass him up.

    I looked back and realized Reyes and Jeter were still available in Rd.2. Who would you choose out of those three? (Tulo was taken)

    I picked up Carpenter right after you responded to my pitcher post of which three are best, so I knew I made a mistake there.

    I would actually use Youk at 3B and Pujols at 1B, so idk if that changes your CI perspective.

    I seem to be one of the few fans of Torii. The next 5 OF after him were, McClouth, Pence, Ibanez, Alex Rios and Damon. Ibanez would be the only one I’d consider.

    I don’t know what there isn’t too like about Choo. It usually boils down to him, Nelson Cruz, and Abreu at that time, and I usually opt with Cruz, but Choo is better balanced. Would you have chosen another one of those?

    Oh and one last comment on the SP. it was Yahoo style more or less, so there were 2 SP spots, 2 RP, and 3 pitcher in general. I like having a strong 1-2 combo, not a strong “1”, then a mediocre Round 7-8 guy. Same for closer, I wanna secure that 35+ saves guy early on. Plus, Broxton, Papelbon, and Rivera had ben taken all ready (in that order)

    P.S: I don’t even wanna see how you’d rip up the other mock teams, b/c I projected 1st o_O

    P.S.S: ok……maybe I’d like to see

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Reyes… Cruz is over Choo…

Comments are closed.