FIP’ing Crazy
May 14, 2009
Category: fantasy baseball strategy
Okay, take off your aluminum foil cap you use to get better TV reception and put on your thinking cap because we’re going into The Land of Sabermetrics with your host, me. Today we’re going to look at FIP. Stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s FIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher who has an ERA of 2.75 but his FIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their FIPs. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Jair Jurrjens – -2.00 difference. Meesa tinks Jar-Jar’s going to get in big trouble.
Doug Davis – -1.99. No surprise here (I hope). He’s not nearly as good as he’s been and he’s only sitting on a 3.25 ERA. Here comes the youch!
Jered Weaver – -1.86. This one surprised me. I figured he was pitching as good as his numbers indicated, but it turns out his BABIP is low and his men left on base is high. Maybe him and big bro might have more to talk about over the All-Star Break than their mullets.
Matt Cain – -1.83. Upsetting for me because I have him on a lot of teams, but not completely surprising. His walks will cut eyes out of a sheet and haunt him.
Kevin Millwood – -1.71. You shouldn’t own him anyway outside of AL-Only leagues.
Chris Volstad – -1.70. I knew he wasn’t this good! Looks like the hurricane season might come early this year (<–Not sure if that makes sense, but seemed to fit.)
Joe Saunders – -1.58. You didn’t really think he was a sub-3 ERA pitcher, did you?
Brett Myers – -1.46. Not that surprising until you realize his ERA is already a 4.81. That’s right, his FIP is 6.28. Don’t wait around for the bounce back.
Johan Santana – -1.27. But his FIP is still only 2.05. You’d take a 2.05 ERA on the year and love it.
Tim Wakefield – -1.21. Looks like he may get greeted with a *pinkie to mouth* knuckle sandwich.
Zach Duke – -1.10. Change is gonna come, nephew.
May 14th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Meanwhile, the Dodgers are ruining it for Ralphie from A Christmas Story. Hamels is looking to bounce back.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 11:49 am
Nice game of pickle for the DP as I typed that. Got out of the inning.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 11:53 am
I buy into your pessimism on Myers. But I’m still hanging on to him. Would you drop him for Randy Wolf?
Also, which popular DL-slot SP do you prefer: Smoltz or Escobar?
[Reply]
@Brian: Smoltz — I’d want Wolf.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Grey: How is FIP calculated?
PS: Nolasco’s head is in a noose right now. What a butterface.
[Reply]
@Falcon: (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 11:59 am
Would you trade Weeks/Vlad for Wieters/Swisher? I’ve got Pedroia at 2B and my OFs are Kemp, Bruce, Werth and Pence. Thanks.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Re: Wakefield.
It has been shown that defense independent pitching stats are less accurate for knuckleballers/trick pitchers.
[Reply]
@Eric H.: It’s okay for you, I feel like you can do much better though.
@naughtandcross: I’d believe that, since they (the knuckleballers) barely know where the ball is going themselves.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
@Grey: Much better in terms of what I can get for Weeks/Vlad? Or would you try to parlay two of those OFs into a Carlos Beltran? Beltran’s owner wants to move him. Would you offer two of those four OFs?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
@Grey: Any chance we can get a look at the pitchers with lower FIPs than ERAs?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:10 pm
Isn’t it also important to consider LD/GB/FB percentages in evaluating whether a pitcher is due for a correction or how much of a correction? For example, Weaver’s BABIP is partially attributable to the fact that his LD% is low (15%) and therefore batters are not making solid contact against him and instead flying or grounding out. I think I’ve heard the equation of expected BABIP being roughly equal to LD% plus .120.
So Weaver is getting lucky, but if he can induce as many GB and FB, his adjustment won’t be nearly as extreme as that of Myers, whose LD% is at 20.
And going the other direction, Nolasco’s FIP is 4.34, and his ERA is 7.78. He’s K’ing plenty of batters, but many are also making solid contact (25.9% LD) so his .387 BABIP is not entirely unjustified.
Of course many question that LD% is not also luck based. Very few starters had a LD% under 16 last year. They were good (Joba, Webb, Saunders) and not so good (Carmona).
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I checked back late, otherwise I would have started Billingsley. Both him and Felix are on my bench. My soul feels like someone kicked it in the nuts.
[Reply]
@Eric H.: Yeah, I’d try and get Beltran.
@JR: Sure, maybe next week.
@royce!: True, true and yup. This is but one way to look at things. By no means the only way.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Should I be looking to sell Weaver or should I just be happy with him and know inside he’s really a #4 starter and not a #2?
[Reply]
@cubbies299: Not looking to sell, unless the offer’s too good to turn down. But he’s more of a #3.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
seeing as how i own a bunch of those guys, do you think its a wise move to offer jurrjens/weaver/ethier for billingsley/scrub?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
@cubbies299: Took the words out of my mouth. I get the feeling that I could flip Weaver and one of my several upper-level OFs (say, Hunter perhaps) for Sabathia, but I always feel reluctant when pulling a “sell-high”. In the back of my mind linger doubts about CC’s health and Weaver’s impending correction.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
Someone just dropped Weiters in my 10-team H2H non-keeper. I have waiver position #3 and am currently starting a schmohawk named Yadier Molina in my catcher slot. Do you use your waiver on Weiters or is he not going to get the call anytime soon?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I have Jair, and need MI infield help. Who in the MI is fair trade value for him?
[Reply]
@PJTres: That’s sellling low on the three you have.
@bobbo: Yeah, I’d grab him. Should be up in the next two weeks.
[Reply]
@Travis: Cano? Hill? Tulo? Drew? In that order…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:03 pm
I like posts like these. Great job
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Along the lines of Travis’s post, what kinda SP does a package of Jair and Alex Rios get me at this point?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Offer Weeks/Guerrero/Weaver to get Billingsley?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
@Grey: Wow, Weaver huh? He’s the only one I’ve got from this list.
What kind of pitcher whose underperforming can I dangle him for?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
I benched Wandy and started Josh! sonovbench@
[Reply]
@GhostfacePrzybilla: Hamels? Bills? F-Her? Shields?
@Eric H.: Eh, you’re still giving up a lot. Weeks/Guerrero should get it done.
@BigFatHippo: I don’t think he takes a dump and starts swimming in it, so you don’t want to sell too low. Also, selling a pitcher for a pitcher isn’t ideal, but maybe get Beckett. He should be better.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
@Grey: Great post man. I’ve been lurking in the middle of the pack in my league and it felt really f’in good to see this list of pitchers, most of which are on the teams of the top 2 or 3 in my league. Enjoy, you bragging biatches. Side note: I’m hurting for runs. Would you send a Lind/F-Her for a Soriano?
[Reply]
@Sos: I would get Soriano there.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Who is this Matt Harrison character and why has he thrown two complete game shutouts in a row for Texas?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
@bobbo: I meant two complete games… he didn’t shut out Seattle today. Idiot.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
Broxton just blew it for your Dodgers and my Bills no longer gets a win…thats ok though cause my opponents F Hernandez lost the win due to a nice Davis homer
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Morrow gave up 2 dingers and the loss.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:24 pm
Brandon Morrow is single-handedly killing my ERA and WHIP. Get your head in the game, kid. Two HR’s in the ninth? Are you kidding me? I know it’s Arlington but it’s MAY!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:25 pm
@Grey: In regards to Lind/F-Her for Soriano, would you do Lind/Gallardo as well? Seems kind of six of one…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Chris Davis 2/4 1Hr 2RBI walkoff homerun! Suck it Reynolds! on a 49HR 98rbi pace and now hitting .239 (Ignoring the fact that he is on a 250K pace)
[Reply]
@bobbo: A Rangers pitcher? Bleh. No thanks.
@Sos: Yeah, they’re more or less the same.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:31 pm
Oh Wandy, well you came and you K’d without taking
I’ll start you at home or away, oh Wandy…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
@naughtandcross: Ha! That’s brilliant!
Elsewhere, stupid Dodger ‘pen.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:37 pm
@Grey: Thanks Grey. A round on me is on it’s way…now. Enjoy yourself.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Just got offered fowler for burriss, but I just got rid of bartlett for an OF. I need the SS.
Would fowler be that big of an upgrade (this year) anyway?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Josh Johnson left after 4in today, 2er, 5bb, 3h, 3k hopefully he just had an off day & nothing more! I doubt he’s making this poop-list. Great stuff Grey.
Also, after a couple promising days out of Soto, might you consider dealing high on V-Mart for a questionably productive A-Roid? Alex>Victor, no?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
@Grey: nice post, i own none of those pitchers but i always did wonder how they calculated FIP…also do you think morrow is gonna be in danger of losing his job?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
so i have both cano and weeks. weeks is starting at util for me. i would love to move 1 of them (preferably weeks who has the bigger downside and less track record) for a SP. i’m talking to cueto’s owner and he’s interested in a deal with some other peripherals that i don’t really need to get into.
what i’m looking for is how much regression do we expect from cueto from this point forward? seems to me that he’s capitalizing on all the hype he had coming into last year.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 1:48 pm
@emporers monkey: Ouch, I feel your pain. Is there a term for this on the glossary? It sounds like a case of reverse-sonavabench.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Great post, Grey.
Just to elaborate on Cain and Weaver a bit more, both of these guys give up a ton of fly balls, and both are doing so at higher rates this year than in the past. In previous years, both pitchers got away with being so flyball-heavy because their fly balls left the park at rates much lower — some might say unsustainably lower — than league-average. If you give them the same HR/FB rates that they had last year, their FIPs get about 30-50 points closer to their ERAs.
So, in addition to thinking about whether their pitching lines are going to start looking like what their fielding-independent stats would suggest, one also needs to ask whether their FB rates and HR/FB rates are going to start looking more like their career norms. Both guys had FIPs in the 3.90-4.00 range for the past three years, so there’s reason to believe that they can continue to post respectable ERAs going forward if that happens.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Crappy news from rotworld –
The Marlins are now saying that Josh Johnson had some weakness in his right shoulder before coming out of Thursday’s game.
The official word during the game was that there was no injury, but the Marlins said afterwards that there was an area of some concern. “It just doesn’t feel great,” Johnson said. “I wanted to go back out there. It’s not tight. Almost weak. But then I came in here and did all the strength stuff, and they told me it’s not weak. I’ve heard stories of people leaving Colorado and feeling absolutely awful their next start.” Johnson threw eight innings at high-altitude Coors Field five days ago.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Rank these 3b: Ian Stewart, Mark Teahen,Rolen, Fontenot,Crede,Fields
[Reply]
@Sos: Thanks for the donation!
@naughtandcross: Ha!
@Tom: No
@zombie: I’d do V-Mart for A-Rod.
@john: Maybe DL, grab Aardsma.
@ThePoonTycoon: I like Cueto moving forward. Don’t expect tons of regression.
@Dingo: Thanks and great comment. Totally agree.
@Doc: Ugh, that’s terrible news. Crap.
[Reply]
@Infamous: Stewart, Fields, Teahen…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:20 pm
@Grey: that sucks hard, i have no more moves left for this week
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
12 team 5×5 roto: which combo do you think is best for me? or better yet, pls rank these SPs and OFs from here on out…
I give up 1 SP for 1 OF – Harang, cueto, garza, wainwright..he has: Dye, mags, nellie cruz
Where is the donation link? feel like i owe you something for asking a variation of the same trade numerous times already….thanks again
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Anybody know why Soriano left today’s game? Assuming it’s because of the score, but just sent out a trade for him so want to make sure he’s not limping off the field.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:26 pm
also…weeks and fowler for tulo too much?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
Hi Grey,
I’ve been offered Teixeira for Lind/Morneau. I perhaps could get a pitcher like Scherzer or Danks thrown in.
Is the upgrade from Morneau to Teixeira too minimal to consider it worthwhile?
Cheers!
[Reply]
@matthole99: You can donate by buying a daiquiri. In this order — Harang, Cueto, Wainwright, Garza — Dye, Cruz, Mags
@matthole: A bit, but I’d want Tulo. Weeks alone should get Tulo.
@TheQuestforMerlin: I’d want the Lind/Morn side by a smidge.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Another typical Penny outcome: 6ish IP, 3ER. That’s been the case in 5 of his 7 outings so far this season.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
Just to point out, while FIP is a good sabertool, a good defense still is a good defense; in other words if a guys getting say half a run less on average per start from great defense behind him, that element should remain steadyish as the season goes on.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:21 pm
@Elijah: you’re right. FIP is great but for fantasy purposes should be combined with team UZR (small sample so far though), especially for the guys that don’t K a lot of batters.
interestingly, other than Millwood, none of those guys Grey listed are backed by a top D.
Top 10 Defenses by UZR:
Rays
Brewers
Reds
Rangers
Mariners
Phillies
Tigers
Pirates
Astros
D’Backs
Bottom 10 Defenses by UZR (Ranked from worst to better)
White Sox
Dodgers
Natinals
Red Sox
Orioles
Indians
Marlins
Yankees
Mets
Cubs
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
Would you drop Holland to spot start/take a flier on De La Rosa?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
Or would you drop Parra for that spot start?
My rotation is Verlander/Vazquez/Lowe/Weaver/Parra/Cecil/Kazmir
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:32 pm
@naughtandcross: Hah!
But man … SONOVABENCH!!
[Reply]
@cubbies299: Drop Holland for the spot start.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:34 pm
@jsp2014: Excellent info! Thanks!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:47 pm
I benched Wolf yesterday but made up for it by starting Wandy today. Both were iffy.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 3:54 pm
I refuse to read this, Jurrjens is going to stay hot all year, damn it!!!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Grey, after reading this article and going through pages on fangraphs, it got me wondering about career FIP / ERA numbers. For instance, over the last 3 years:
Weaver is beating the FIP by .25
Wakefield is beating by .30
Saunders is beating by .35
Santana is beating by .58
Millwood lags by .75
Duke lags by .42
Wouldn’t this suggest that the real numbers might not be as daunting as you thought (except for Millwood & Duke, they’re worse)?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
I’m about ready to drop Ortiz for Winn
[Reply]
@Scott: Weaver’s career FIP is 3.99, his current ERA is 2.45. Wakefield’s I did before yesterday’s catastrophe (which I should’ve noted above, but didn’t… My bad). Current ERA 4.35 — 2.66 career FIP for Saunders. I’m not going to do the other ones, b/c of lack of time, but I think they’re still saying the same things I’m saying above.
EDIT: Word.
[Reply]
@Doc: Hold tight, friend.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
@Grey: 0 for friggin 7!!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:47 pm
@Doc: With 3 Ks.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
@Grey: Just about closed a Lind deal. I can get Joba, but need to include one of Franklin, F-Cord or Qualls.
Which one?
I also have Sherrill, Percy and Bailey for saves.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Reimold starts in left tonight
[Reply]
@Steve: Franklin
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:55 pm
I still believe all those guys are due even back out, I don’t doubt that at all. I was just pointing out that guys like Santana are consistently beating the FIP year after year. Just because he’s beating it again this year may not be as much of a concern as it may appear. I’m somewhat new to all this so my inquiry is more just to understand things a bit more fully.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
@Grey – how do i go about that daiquiri? (could be dense)
At which points during the season do you normally analyze your roster/place in standings and proactively trade Do you find that most people are trigger happy or get too cute with their “sleepers” and mess up their rosters instead of demonstrating patience on their drafted players…few yrs ago i traded away braun after he was called and i got f’d in the a….
if youre near the top of the standing do you deal if its only a steal?
thanks…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
@Grey: Hah, BFH will not be happy.
[Reply]
@Scott: Yeah, and I appreciate your research.
@matthole: If you click Home at the top of the page, then at the bottom of this post there’s something that says something about buying a daiquiri, should be self-explanatory from there. Should be looking to make your team better always, without being too hasty. Braun was the exception to the rule, not the rule, so you just got a bum deal there, pun intended.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
@Grey: Thanks for all the help. Offered and accepted.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:27 pm
Drop Pierre for Gamel? I’ve got an overcrowded OF and Reynolds @ 3B
[Reply]
@The Dude: I wouldn’t.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
Ticker tease with alf soriano today. Don’t bother even doing your due dilligence on Bobby Scales, but that’s a good story for an 11-year minor leaguer.
@Scott: Nice work, appreciated.
@Grey: Which is the better haul for A-Rod: A-Rod for Santana or A-Rod for Billingsly & B Wilson? Either or both worth it?
Also, I’m torn between telling my friends about this site or not. Tough call because it’s too damn helpful and contrarian to Yahoo/EPSN to share with my leaguemates. So far, I’m just telling those in other leagues. Thanks.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
@Doc: Wait, What?
Connectivity problems have had me flummoxed for a few days……..
What am I not happy about? Franklin? He’d be dealing the wrong closer there, Franklin will be a 12$ Salad at the end of the year. At the least the top of the Donkey Corns………..
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:47 pm
@BigFatHippo: Just figured you would have a different viewpoint on Franklin than Greystache
[Reply]
@SRM: Both worth it, I’d want Johan.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
Gamel or LaPorta? LaPorta is having a decent game right now.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 5:57 pm
@Doc: Haha, you would be right. But I’m sort of a homie, so it doesn’t matter.
@Grey: Weaver for Beckett huh? Good deal if I could pull it off, but our friendly neighborhood Flightless Bird owns Beckett, and we all know how that’s gonna turn out…..rejected!
I may try to steal CC for him, that oughta piss em off. (I’m all about pissin em off.)
[Reply]
@Doc: Gamel
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
so somebody finally gave up on Papi…do I drop Nolasco for him…Ricky has me sick and I could just stick Ortiz on the bench and wait for a turnaround??
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Would you drop Morales for Juan Cruz. I need closers badly b/c I only got Bell, Downs, Ziegler and BJ Ryan. So drop Morales to get Cruz or drop Ziegler or Ryan. Its a 12 team mixed league so Morales prob isnt that valuable despite him doing good recently. WHich one of my 3 guys would you drop for Cruz??
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
do u like harang more then cueto?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
LaPorta or Chris Duncan?
[Reply]
@danimal35: I’d prefer to bench Nolasco.
@G: Drop Morales for him.
@Martin: Barely
[Reply]
@Mark: Duncan
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
for Morales right?
[Reply]
@G: What?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:08 pm
you concerned with james shields? seems to put up a few great innings only to get rocked
[Reply]
@matthole: I blame Asdrubal. Yeah, I’m not thrilled. Defense let him down, then he let me down. He should still gets us the 3.75 ERA on the year. Obviously doesn’t seem to be taking the next step as I hoped.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:13 pm
Hello chaps. I give King Felix and the Big Unit and get Matt Holliday and Adam Wainwright. 10 team roto that counts 1B, 2B, 3B, BB, OPS and K/9, CG in addition to all the usual ones. Other relevent info: I’m tracking about 25IP over my maximum already. My other SPs are Greinke, Meche, Harang, Gallardo and my OFs are Ibanez, Beltran, McLouth and Dye. Am in the top 3 in all pitching categories except saves and am getting killed in runs and 2B (going OK in other offensive categories as well).
Whaddaya reckon?
[Reply]
@Gareth: Hey, friend. I like it for you.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
@Grey: Another bad day for Wins, my friend. Assume, that like me, you felt the pain of Bills and a little redemption from Wandy?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:20 pm
@Grey: Ian Stewart/Weaver for Quentin?
Deal or no deal?
Carlos been really bad at beisbol for the last week or so.
[Reply]
@Steve: –it happens. Rudy and I overthought Wandy. Should’ve just started him.
@BigFatHippo: I want Quentin.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
@Steve: Yeah, 2 gems from Hamels and Bills with no decision. Sucked for me, but Wandy made it right……then Shields bit it in the arse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:26 pm
@Grey: @BigFatHippo: I was leaning towards sitting Wandy, but game started at 7.10am here so was too busy with breakfast, kids, shower etc to do anything about so left him in – glad I did, obviously.
Nothing else has gone right though. In any league.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
@BigFatHippo: Quentin’s been secretly nursing a heal injury sustained on April 28th. He’s been given a few days off this week and as far as I know, due back tomorrow. I’d probably do that deal, but I don’t have the mancrush on Stewart that Grey does.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Is Aviles a lost cause. I’m in a 13 team league and I want to drop him for a MI with more upside, but there is crud on the wire. I was thinking I might just drop him for Frasor or Calero.
[Reply]
@Doc: You putting Kiko in at SS? I’d lose Aviles if you have a halfway decent replacement.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
is gil meche a good buy low? How much would u give up for him.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
Has anybody heard anything more about Bobby Abreu’s bad back. He’s cold and in a power slump and I’m thinking about trading for him but I’m concerned. Thanks.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:51 pm
C’mon KC, pile it on! Set up a save opp for my man George “The Animal” Sherrill!
[Reply]
@Martin: I guess for the right price, but I wouldn’t buy him outside of an AL-Only league.
@Bob: Experienced tightness, but he said it’s fine. Might be contributing to his power outage.
[Reply]
@Steve: Ha!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
@Grey: No doubt, as soon as he gets the opp, he’ll Abdullah the Butcher it.
Oofa!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
I think ol’ Kiko might be a better SS than Aviles right now. If only he had eligibility! I have Hardy at SS and Burriss, Fontenot, and Coghlan for 2B and MI. Burriss has 2b and SS eligibility which is nice, but I don’t trust him for the long haul. Well I don’t trust any of them except Hardy and I have my doubts there too. The only MI I was really looking at was Lugo.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:02 pm
@Grey: Thanks.
[Reply]
@Doc: How many MI schmohawks do you need? Lose Aviles.
@Bob: No problem.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:09 pm
@Grey: Thank you kindly.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:33 pm
@Grey: I’m always jonesing for some MI schmos!!!
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:36 pm
May need a spot starter for Saturday. Who do you like?
Porcello v As (Cahill)
Happ @ Nats (Cabrera)
Uehara @ KC (Davies)
Geer v Reds (Volquez)
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
@Steve: Uehara @ KC (Davies)
Check out his game log…Low K’s in his first start, hit around in his second….and then solid since that point. KC offense doesn’t scare me.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
which side do you like?
arod/beckett/marquis for wandy/H. bell/A. Bailey
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
arod side…unless I have absolutely no idea who H. Bell and A. Bailey are…but I think I do.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
Hamilton/Lidge for C. Lee/Slowey
I need closers and rbi’s. Thoughts on Lidge playing this year?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 9:03 pm
In a head to head league that counts errors against hitters, Ben Zobrist has to have some value, right? More than C. Guzman?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 9:15 pm
Yikes. Beltran seems to be undergoing some sort of correction. Bit inconvenient.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 9:23 pm
@Rob: The Arod side by a mile, not very close, Accept quickly if you are getting the ARod side
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
@Grey: Confused by your “I like Cueto moving forward. Don’t expect tons of regression.” Cueto was #10 on Rudy’s Risky list. Is Cueto now not a risky pitcher?
[Reply]
@Steve: Actually, like three of four there:
Porcello v As (Cahill)
Happ @ Nats (Cabrera)
Uehara @ KC (Davies)
I’d go with Happ though if I had to choose one.
@Rob: A-Rod side.
@I’m Keith Hernandez: Hamilton side, but Lidge is in trouble.
@Matt Sorrento: Zobrist
@Simply Fred: Sure, but I’ve been impressed by what he’s done so far.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:12 pm
An April 23 column by Aaron Gleeman @ Rotoworld made me think of Grey …
The other evening, while taking in a few innings of the Mets-Cardinals game, I beheld a sight that I can only describe as somewhere on the verge of spectacular.
To be clear, this was not a prodigious home run nor a devastating slider nor a fully-extended diving catch to take away a surefire triple. It was something much less expected, something that was in one sense completely inconsequential and in another sense, downright inspirational.
It was Rick Ankiel’s mustache.
If you haven’t yet seen this bold facial adornment, picture the ‘stache sported by Kevin Kline’s Otto the jewel thief from A Fish Called Wanda (and no, it’s not every day that I have occasion to reference that movie).
[Reply]
@Prince: Hehe
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
I was just looking at ESPN’s updated top 250 rankings. Honestly, how does AJ Mass have a job as a fantasy expert? First thing I noticed was David Wright at 25. So in a league of me and 11 AJ Masses, I’d get David Wright in the third round. *falsetto voice* Championship.
Then I look at the pitchers. He has Santana at 23 and Lincecum at 30. Okay, it looks like he’s discounting pitchers. Fair enough. Roy Halladay, 5. ;olhn.;m kl;…..
Sorry. That was my jaw hitting the keyboard.
[Reply]
@Griff: Ha! Yeah, I looked at those earlier. I like how Berry no longer likes Pedroia but was defending him in our interview.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
And Mass with his whole “Massmomentum” column and that player list … the derivation of the rankings was unintelligible. Oh well, thankfully there’s Razzball
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
@Steve: Beltran correction? Unless you expected him to hit .400 all year, I can’t quite understand where you’re coming from. 8 consecutive games with a hit, two hits, two runs and a steal tonight…
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Hmm, I didn’t know the forum supported emoticons, based on Grey’s preferred use of “insert appropriate emoticon here”
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
@Gareth: Yeah – a bit sarcastic there.
Wrote that a while back – when he grounded out with the bases loaded.
Just needed an outlet. He’s been fantastic, no doubt.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:37 pm
@Steve: Hah okay. As a Beltran-loving Mets fan (I have a Mets friend who insists – vocally – that he should be traded) you hit my over-protective mother nerve.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
I’m stuck in 7th in a league where no one trades, so I’m feeling I need to pick up Manny (barf) to be able to make any kind of run later. I’ll also try to get Aramis (on waivers) on my DL once Lackey is off. Problem: who to remove to create bench space for the Possibly-Pregnant Man-Child.
Assuming I remove Ziegler, remaining options are my pitchers, some of whom obviously I wouldn’t drop, but just so you have an idea of who I have, here’s the whole list:
Haren, Bedard, Lester, Lackey, Wandy, Jurrjens, Kershaw, Street, Downs, Cruz, Rivera, Lindstrom
Who would go?
[Reply]
@Prince: Drop Ziegler then you have no one. You could drop Kershaw, but I wouldn’t.
EDIT: Word.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:58 pm
@Grey: Grey, I think your heart is winning out over your brain on Cueto. He currently has a BABIP of .239, ranking the 9th lowest–sure to regress. He tailed off considerably last year. This was Rudy’s call: “I’m sure Dusty Baker will throw him 120 pitches in a late April game to expedite his inevitable shutdown.” Not sure what his highest pitch count has been to date, but only two things can happen, and the most likely is not good.
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
@Grey: Sorry Grey, I didn’t understand you. Are you saying not to pick up Manny? I know you don’t like the idea … but if I were to do so, I’d have to drop more than Ziegler. He’d be going to make room for Lackey. Someone else would have to go. Cruz is only a closer temporarily, as far as I understand Soria’s injury, so perhaps him?
[Reply]
May 14th, 2009 at 11:38 pm
Not to change the subject and perhaps it’s already been noted, so I apologize ahead of time if so, but CBS has already added Strasburg into their database. Might be useful information for long time keeper league owners…….
[Reply]
May 15th, 2009 at 12:38 am
Thanks guys. I just accepted the a-rod trade. Lets hope it doesnt get vetoed.
I was hesitant b/c i wasnt too thrilled about giving up wandy. 11 k’s in Col is amazing
Rob
[Reply]
@Simply Fred: He did trail off, but had months of solid productivity last year later in the year, so he’s not following the exact pattern. I never thought he’d be a sub-2 ERA pitcher, sorry if that wasn’t clear. I’m thinking he can be a 3.50 to 3.75 ERA pitcher, which gives him solid value. I placed Harang in front of him above so I’m not quite crazy for him. Maybe just a little bit. (Insert emoticon here)
@Prince: Nah, that’s what I meant. You only have Ziegler to drop, no one else. You can drop Cruz, not sure how deep your league is or if he’ll sit there. So drop Cruz for Manny if you think you’ll be okay in saves.
@Tim L: Gotcha. Thanks!
[Reply]
May 15th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
No Greinke On this list? Look i think the kid is outstanding and he will post a great whip and k/bb ration but in my opinion greinke is in line for a much bigger statistical correction in regard to era than is Johan Santana. Greinke finishes in the low three’s while Santana hovers below.
[Reply]
May 15th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
What a great idea for a post.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/5/13/873952/top-10-overrated-starters-in-2009
[Reply]
@BA: Greinke just missed the cut, but I agree Johan will beat him.
@Sky: Not sure what you’re implying, but I don’t read your site. Besides, my list goes to eleven. Natch.
[Reply]
May 15th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
hey Grey nice piece its time for the inverse now… who are the guys who are getting the shot end of the stick, and guys we can grab off the wire or in a sweet trade.
[Reply]
@Ken: Will be coming up this week.
[Reply]
May 16th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
So…I clicked on yahoo’s fantasy front page article. I know, I know, won’t happen again. Guess who they linked? You guys. This post.
Check it here.
I don’t like it. Not one bit. I need to find you guys and kidnap you so no one else can have your advice.
[Reply]
May 16th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
@Freak: Apparently I should read other comment threads first.
Oh wells.
[Reply]