FIP Flops
March 19, 2010
Category: 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft
Member the last time we looked at FIP? You were younger, you! Still looking good. Love the touch with the bitten down fingernails. You’re like the Krueger brother who had to open jars for Freddy. Billy, could you open these pickles for me? These stupid nails. Okay, so I usually look at which pitchers are being lucky or unlucky monthly during the season, but let’s do a recap of who was lucky last year. It might help with your drafting, but I do go over all of this in individual blurbs in the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings, where it’s applicable. But thinking gives you the Mondays, so here I am. On Friday. xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for all of last year. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Jair Jurrjens – -1.74 difference. And that was before he went for an MRI on his shoulder. P.W. Botha isn’t the only one getting The Gas Face.
J.A. Happ – -1.59. Can Happ avoid the sophomore slump? Sure, if Ryan Howard gives up cheesesteaks, learns to fly and knocks every ball down that is hit off of Happ.
Matt Cain – -1.32. He should’ve regressed the entire year last year, but he Keyser Soze’d his way through it. Unlike the above two names, Cain’s above a 7 K/9, so I have some love for him.
Randy Wells – -1.19. Okay, Wells was also lucky last year. Not great, but he does keep his walks down. Kinda like my overweight aunt.
Bronson Arroyo – -1.16. Eh, he shouldn’t be owned until July anyway.
Johan Santana – -1.00. But he was injured. But what if he’s not fully healed? And the falling K-rate? I don’t know… Damn, random italicized voice, you’re supposed to be for comic relief, not for making actual points. My bad.
Randy Wolf – -0.93. I don’t think anyone, including Wolf, really thought he was for real last year.
Edwin Jackson – -0.78. Don’t you just love it when pitchers I’m not excited about end up on the list of pitchers to avoid? Yeah, don’t wanna blow your mind right here, but it was kinda planned that way.
John Danks – -0.77. Last year, I liked Danks and disliked Floyd. This year, the opposite. Danks for the memories. Danks, but no Danks. Danks for nothing. You pick the bad wordplay.
March 19th, 2010 at 11:13 am
How am I supposed to get work done when you guys make me laugh so damn much. Funny I just made Jair, Happ, and Cain’s names italicized on my tiered scarcity report/cheat sheet so i dont forget during the draft to avoid them like the plague unless i get them for 50 cents on the dollar.
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:18 am
I’m staying far away from Jair this season and not just because his name sounds like an infectious disease. Happ and Danks too. I do like me some Cain though, since as you said he K’s.
I think it’s safe to add Rick Porcello to this list, no? I don’t know his xFIP, but son managed a 3.96 ERA with a 4.77 FIP last season. He don’t miss bats so will he step forward or back this season? I’m thinking the later.
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@Beau: Cool…
@Andre: Yeah, Porcello must’ve just missed xFIP list, but he’s not going anywhere any of my teams.
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am
Great post.
Are you going to do the inverse of this phenomona (doo doo do do do!)?
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:32 am
@El Famous Burrito: No need for that, the answer is Ricky Nolasco.
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@El Famous Burrito: Probably, time permitting on the preseason.
@Beau: Ha!
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:40 am
Hmm, Johan is a bit of a surprise here. I’ll draft him if he falls to me in the 6th round but I’d be lying if I said I fully trust him to dominate this year.
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:42 am
Others who may have been unlucky include lester and verland, but you were already going after them anyways. Also on the list are Pavano, Livan, pelfrey (no thanks) and penny, hamels, JDLR, lowe…definitely some interesting names.
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:43 am
@Grey: John “Shwag”
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March 19th, 2010 at 11:48 am
I know Wolf wasn’t for real, but how hard do you see him falling? He’s on the waiver wire of one of my 20-man leagues.
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@matthole: Hmm, you lost me.
@ichirosan: He should be owned in that deep of a league. He’s a low 4 ERA guy.
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March 19th, 2010 at 12:00 pm
@Grey: reefer reference : DANK = good; shwag=bad
He is no longer John “Danks”…….yeah, I’ll keep those to myself
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@matthole: Ah… See, I smoked too much pot when I was younger to get that.
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March 19th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
@Grey: The biggest dilemma I face is in a keeper format. With Jurrjens only being .30 with a $50 cap.
1. Keep him because of value
2. Let him go because, well, a .30 piece of crap is still a piece of crap.
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March 19th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
@Grey: @ichirosan: And he goes by The Wolfman. What’s not to like?
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@Nate Marcum: Keep him.
@Steve: True
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March 19th, 2010 at 12:25 pm
All right guys…I only have 2 hours before my NFBC draft, I sit in the first spot, and I am increasingly growing worried that Zimmerman will not be around at the turn. If he is gone, should I do Youk and a top flight OF, Reynolds and top flight OF, Youk and B.Phillips? I really don’t want to take Reynolds, but I don’t want to have to worry about 3B all draft long.
Thanks guys!!!
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@Nate Marcum: Youk and an OF or Phillips is fine.
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March 19th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
Arroyo put up something like a 2.20 ERA in the second half last year. I hate to cram sunshine up his ass, but not many pitchers did better than that.
Definitely a second half pitcher. He must be too busy working on his terrible music during the first half to be bothered to throw a decent fucking game.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
This:
It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.
just killed me. Thank you.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
Hey guys, I haven’t posted in here in a while. I’ve taken some months off for some R&R from the fantasy world.
I am going to be playing in a 10-team 5X5 roto mixed league (2 catchers, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 9 pitchers, 6 reserves). Just thought I would mention my initial draft strategy and look for some feedback.
The plan is to draft hitters in rounds 1-5 loading up on whoever is the best valued player who has slipped. No targeted players, just the best value. Rounds 6-15 I plan to alternate taking a starting pitcher and a hitter, so that’s 5 more hitters and 5 SPs. Those SPs will be the anchors of my staff at least for the beginning of the season. Rounds 16-19 will be two more hitters and two closers. Rounds 20-23 will be two closers and two high upside SPs. Rounds 24-25 will be my final two hitters, probably MI and Utility. I know these guys will be weak hitters. Essentially, they are guys I can cut without much fanfare to pick up whoever gets hot to start the season. Rounds 26-29 will be high upside SPs and also guys who can easily be cut when needed.
I’m going to fill my reserves with SPs and use 5 starting pitchers with 4 closers to begin the season. Last year I got burned in ERA and WHIP early in the year and never really recovered. To keep that ERA and WHIP reasonable I’ll do that strategy for the first 5 weeks of the season or so. I know I’ll fall behind in strikeouts and wins, but I should be in 1st place in saves. I’ll make it up later. During April I’m looking to aggressively play the waiver-wire looking for upcoming SPs, but not starting them. I’ll just hold them as reserves until they can string together many good outings. After about 5 weeks of that, I plan on cutting 2 closers and going with 7 starters and 2 closers since by mid-May we should know who’s good and who’s not. At that point, I’ll start moving up the rankings in Wins and Strikeouts and down the rankings in saves. I should have enough saves to at least stay in the middle of the pack though. If I can gather together enough good pitchers I can rotate them around and maximize the number of starts per week to make up a lot of ground. Meanwhile, the hitters should be dominating across the board. Is this a good strategy? Any recommendations? Comments?
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
“but let’s do a recap of who was unlucky last year. ”
Should this read “who was lucky this year?” I’m not sure if I’m nit-picking or just confused.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
@Eric: You should check out the draft strategies grey and rudy published. Not sure you need to hold yourself to a strict hitter/pitcher alternating sequence, but otherwise the overall idea is sound.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:31 pm
@Beau
There’s some flexibility. It doesn’t have to alternate. If someone good slips I’ll grab him. It’s just a general strategy of what rounds to target what positions.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:36 pm
ack, and then I make my own typo. I meant to ask if it should read “who was lucky LAST year.”
Yeah, I need a life.
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@Eric: That strategy makes sense.
@Bring Back Pluto: Nah, you’re right. My bad. Stupid fingers.
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March 19th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
@Grey: hey, where would Figgy rank among your 2Bs? Sure he can’t hit a HR to save his life, but don’t the OBP and steals count for something?
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@zorob: He’d rank top 5 for 2nd basemen.
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March 19th, 2010 at 2:18 pm
@grey: I know that Wolf’s xFIP says that he was lucky, but doesn’t the bad luck of his good offense ironically never giving him a chance at a win kind of offset that?
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March 19th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
@Eric: When you say “cutting 2 closers and going with 7 starters” you mean trading them right?
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@Big League Chew: I wish we could backdate those missed wins.
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March 19th, 2010 at 2:30 pm
@Grey: You’re not the only one.
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March 19th, 2010 at 3:39 pm
I like Edwin Jackson for this year. He had a really good first half of the year, really bad second half of the year. I lean towards thinking he’ll be more like the first half than the second half.
I felt like he was a pitcher that had for the first half of the year figured out a lot of things about pitching, and then the second half, was like, “oh shit, I have to do those things under the pressure of a pennant race now?” And, he just fell apart.
But, I think he’s got great potential as a pitcher and even though he leaves a pitchers park, I think he’ll be closer to the first half of his season than the second half.
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March 19th, 2010 at 3:41 pm
Also, I don’t think you can look at a guy like Randy Wolf and apply FIP. I just don’t see how that makes any sense. I mean, just look at the formula, then look at Wolf’s career. Really? Wolf knows his fielders, knows their weaknesses, knows hitters and works around it.
It’s the same reason Jaime Moyer had success. That success will be there until for whatever reason they just lose a step in terms of the thinking aspect of the game.
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March 19th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Im starting to “over think” my early picks in my draft tomorrow… I was planning on taking Hamilton (or Quentin) and a SP to round out my top eight, but the injury risk has me a little worried and I’m thinking Victorino or Span might be a better option to couple with a pitcher. (League setup in an earlier post…..) AmI over analysing?
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@Euroalien: No, I don’t think Victorino and Span are bad picks. Depends on what you’re looking for them to provide. If I took BJ Upton, I wouldn’t want Span. If I took Carlos Lee, Span doesn’t seem as bad.
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March 19th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
just sent invites to TWO razzballers for my main money league, what am i thinking?
wish some of my old friends just weren’t huge bags of vagina….. crap happens when you get old, or married, or are a bum and lazy and dont work…
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March 19th, 2010 at 4:35 pm
I have Howard, Bay, Granderson and Youk, plus Beckett and Santana….. I’m thinking Span or Victorino plus a Wandy type might be better…….. as they’ll give me some speed…. but I don’t want to reach for them too early either (I know I want the best of both worlds). I’m planning on taking Stewart with my 9th pick then possible an RP or two from the Bell tier…….. I really appreciate the advice!
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March 19th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
P.W. Botha gets The Gas Face…classic. And when I say “classic,” I mean the only website in the world where you can get invaluable fantasy advice while soaking up references to early 90s white rappers commenting on South African politics. And I give M.C. Hammer The Gas Face. BwwhraBwwhraBwwwhra (<–Gas Face sound).
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@Rabbit: Nice sound effect.
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March 19th, 2010 at 5:11 pm
What’s the highest you’d draft Chapman in keeper league (12 team, mixed)?
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@peter: Around 12-14th.
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March 19th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
grey would you rather go Miggy/tulo or Miggy/wright at the turn in a 12 team draft…. had the option in this mock i just did….
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@Tony: Miggy/Wright
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March 19th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
@Tony: I’d say Wright cost that’s what I did in a for-real slow draft I’m doing.
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March 19th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
@Grey: @Steve: ya i went wright, got andrus around the 11th, and took everth in the 22nd or somethign for backup? was a pretty good mock, people were sniping my wish list pretty hard, thats actually a good thing…. anyways my first two sp’s were gallardo and nolasco….. didn’t feel great about that… i almost wanna get a SOLID SP around the 5th ish, just so i KNOW i have one… i mean depending what format and draft pick i have, near the end of a draft i’ve found i dont like what comes back inthe 7/8th….
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March 19th, 2010 at 5:57 pm
@Tony: Gotta say I’m a little spooked about any decent SS who’s not Hanley or Reyes after reading Rudy’s value post the other day. Took Reyes at 40 in this draft.
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:02 pm
I finished up my draft the other day. 12 team H2H, 6×6 (the extra stats being OPS and Holds), with 4 OF and an IF spot. How did I do and what should I address in-season?
C-Montero
1st-Votto
2nd-Cano
3rd-Zimmerman
SS-Hanley
IF-Garret Jones
OF-Granderson
OF-Cruz
OF-Quentin
OF-Borbon
Util-Carlos Gonzalez
B-Pierre
B-Fowler
SP-Ubaldo
SP-Wandy
SP-Nolasco
SP-Cueto
RP-Marmol
RP-Soriano
RP-Mike Gonzalez
P-Rauch
P-Sherrill
B-Scherzer
B-Clay Buchholz
B-Masset
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
@Steve: ya, if i take a andrus i almost always take an everth later too, i like to at least have some options if one of them bombs, if both do…. UH OH
Here’s my completed mock, 12 teamer from the 12 slot:
1. Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
2. David Wright (NYM – 3B)
3. Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
4. Robinson Canó (NYY – 2B)
5. Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
6. Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP)
7. Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
8. Hunter Pence (Hou – OF)
9. Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
10. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
11. Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
12. Kevin Slowey (Min – SP)
13. Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
14. Geovany Soto (ChC – C)
15. David Price (TB – SP)
16. Chris Davis (Tex – 1B,3B)
17. Matt Capps (Was – RP)
18. Jon Rauch (Min – RP)
19. Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)
20. Francisco Liriano (Min – SP,RP)
21. Travis Snider (Tor – OF)
22. Everth Cabrera (SD – SS)
23. Cameron Maybin (Fla – OF)
isn’t it wild i took pence, andrus, bruce before CQ? then got chris davis in the 16th…. how is my pitching? and i tried to sagnof it but man, the closers got worked…. theres always inseason pickups. THOUGHTS?
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
@SotoMojo: nice team, ur pitching is going to be your question mark…. some guys step up you’re gold, some guys tank, watch out….ubaldo, wandy, nolasco could be rough….
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
@Grey: can that team i just drafted compete slash win a roto league? slash RCL?
drinking, again, slash….
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
@Tony: Your first three picks are AWESOME! Hehe – same as mine in the slow draft. If guys play to potential that OF could be huge. See what you. Mean about pitching. Looks like you need an Oswalt or a Baker type.
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March 19th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
@Steve: ya grandy, cruz, pence, CQ and bruce? some of that has to pan out…. ya i feel all my SP’ing is wishful, no real locks, if there is such a thing in pitching…. i’ve got more upside on this team than anything… which is good and BAD.?
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@SotoMojo: Looks like a solid team, I think for H2H your pitching should be fine. You might have to work the waivers, but everyone does. Your hitting looks real nice.
@Tony: Your pitching looks like it could give you problems, if this were a real league. It hinges on Gallardo. Hitting looks real solid.
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March 19th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
@Grey Thanks. I expect to be able to pick up a starter in the first couple of months that will really be a help to my team. We’ll see what I get from Scherzer and Buchholz, but I really think this is the year we see Cueto break out.
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March 19th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
Strasburg had a pretty sweet line today. It just adds fuel to the fire and probably boosted his draft spot a round or two.
Strasburg (W, 1-0) 4.0 innings…4 hits…2 Earned Runs (Solo homers)… 8(!) SO.
He’s currently sporting a 2.00 ERA for spring and has 12 Ks over 9 IP.
Man, if the opportunity falls to me, I’m drafting this kid and hanging him in front of my league mates for some trades.
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March 19th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Wow, this article just crushed my keepers. Perhaps a little help from the man…
My Roster:
OF: A.Lind, M.Ramirez, C.Granderson, B.Abreu, Ad.Jones, R.Ludwick
1B: M.Cabrera, M.Teixeira
2B: C.Utley
3B: P. Sandoval, Ar.Ramirez, C.Figgins
SS: Al.Ramirez, C.Barmes
C: K.Shoppach
SP: J.Santana, M.Cain, T.Hanson, D.Price, E.Bedard, M.Garza
RP: B.Jenks, B.Lidge
Here’s my 9:
M.Cabrera, M.Teixeira, C.Utley, P.Sandoval, A.Lind, C.Granderson, J.Santana, M.Cain, T.Hanson
Should I reconsider not including Price and/or Aramis?
Thanks,
Roger Lodge, Love Guru
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@Roger Lodge: Nice username. Johan and Cain shouldn’t invert to unusable. And your other options aren’t that enticing. I’d go with what you have. Maybe if Cain gets off to another nice start, you look to move him.
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March 19th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
Drafted my NFBC Double Play team…not entirely pleased, but ok with it.
C. Ramon Hernandez
C. JR Towles
1B Pujols
2B J Lopez
SS S. Dres
3B Zimmerman
OF Sizemore
OF Werth
OF A Jones
OF D Span
OF D Fowler
CI I Stewart
MI Everth
UT Konerko
P Lester
P Nolasco
P Baker
P Slowey
P Liriano
P Aardsma
P Lidge
P Capps
P Niemann
B Rzepczynski
B R Madson
B C Headley
B Randy Ruiz
B Motte
B Carlos Santana
B M Bumgarner
Thoughts?
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March 19th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
Just finished drafting my 14 team keeper league, 6×6 H2H with OPS and Quality Starts. I’m obviously happy with my lineup, but do you think I have enough pitching to win the league?
C-Napoli
1B-Votto
2B-Stewart
SS-Bartlett
3B-Wright
OF-Braun
OF-J Upton
OF-Markakis
Util-Quentin
SP-Felix
SP-Lackey
SP-Oswalt
SP-Dempster
RP-Papelbon
RP-Aardsma
P-Dotel
Bench:
Travis Snider
Kevin Gregg
Kevin Slowey
Jonathan Sanchez
Brandon Morrow
Justin Duchscherer
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March 19th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
Grey, also on an unrelated note, do you have any suggestions for a simple way to manage rankings for an odd H2H points-based league? If not, maybe some general suggestions based on the settings below?
Scoring for Batting Categories
1B – Singles 1 point
2B – Doubles 2 points
3B – Triples 3 points
BB – Walks (Batters) 1 point
CS – Caught Stealing -1 point
GDP – Ground Into Double Plays -1 point
HP – Hit by Pitch 1 point
HR – Home Runs 4 points
KO – Strikeouts (Batter) -0.5 points
R – Runs 1 point
RBI – Runs Batted In 1 point
SB – Stolen Bases 2 points
Scoring for Pitching Categories
BBI – Walks Issued (Pitchers) -1 point
ER – Earned Runs -1 point
HA – Hits Allowed -1 point
HB – Hit Batsmen -1 point
INN – Innings 3 points
K – Strikeouts (Pitcher) .5 points
L – Losses -5 points
NH – No-Hitters 5 points
PG – Perfect Games 5 points
S – Saves 7 points
SO – Shutouts 5 points
W – Wins 7 points
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@Nate Marcum: The bottom half of your staff looks pretty wonky. Your hitting looks fine, maybe a little light on speed, but not too terrible. Fowler and Everth could make a difference there.
@Chris: Sure, you have enough to win if two of your bench starters pan out and Dempster holds it together. Otherwise, you might have some issues. Your league is pretty weighted for SPs. I think your hitting should be fine.
re: those seetings — That’s also very heavily weighted for SPs. Make sure you load up on quality starters. I’d go for Lincecum definitely and at least one more in the top 20 starters. Your hitting is weighted for speed/average guys. Juan Pierre would be solid in that league or someone like that. I’d go easy on the all or nothing sluggers like Howard.
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March 20th, 2010 at 5:53 am
first real draft! what do you guys think? 12 team H2H.
1. (10) David Wright 3B
2. (15) Matt Kemp OF
3. (34) Kevin Youkilis 1B,3B
4. (39) Robinson Canó MI
5. (58) José Reyes MI
6. (63) Jon Lester SP
7. (82) Cole Hamels SP
8. (87) Josh Hamilton OF
9. (106) Ricky Nolasco SP
10. (111) Matt Wieters C
11. (130) José Valverde RP
12. (135) Carlos Quentin OF
13. (154) Brandon Webb SP
14. (159) Frank Francisco RP
15. (178) Jorge De La Rosa SP
16. (183) Jonathan Sánchez SP (dropped for mike gonz)
17. (202) Carlos Gonzalez OF
18. (207) David Price SP
19. (226) Scott Kazmir SP
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March 20th, 2010 at 7:21 am
Grey, is there a quick way you could make a separate top 300 rankings for OBP instead of AVG leagues? If it’s not too much trouble.
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@ChiliDavis: This seems like a very shallow 12 team league and, the fact CarGo went at 202, makes me think your competition isn’t the sharpest. But your team looks fine. Decent SPs. Not crazy about Webb or Kazmir if you’ve read the site at all, but it’s your team, they could be good, I guess. Your hitting looks fine.
@Tom Emanski: The rankings don’t change that much as guys that are good at baseball tend to be good at getting on base.
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March 20th, 2010 at 9:08 am
have you updated your top 300 lately?
Scanning through, do you still like Brantley over Coghlan?
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March 20th, 2010 at 9:27 am
@Grey: Thanks Grey, appreciate the feedback. would you pick up Lilly or Sanchez in place of Kazmir or Webb?
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@Mickey: I have updated it. I don’t like Coghlan.
@ChiliDavis: You should be able to DL Webb once the season begins then grab Sanchez.
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March 20th, 2010 at 10:13 am
What do you think the odds are of Uggla getting traded and Coghlan eventually moving to 2nd? A little multiposition eligibility sure would boost Coghlan’s value.
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March 20th, 2010 at 10:27 am
@ChiliDavis: ya kemp slipped to 15? your league must not be too bright?
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March 20th, 2010 at 11:18 am
@Grey:
I hear CarGo is going to be leading off, how does this affect his value if at all? (Clearly hes gonna get more run/SB less RBI)
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March 20th, 2010 at 11:29 am
David Wright went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts in Grapefruit League action against the Twins on Friday. Wright has now struck out twice in three straight spring games, and has seen his average fall to .241
Only Spring ball right???
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@Andre: If it hasn’t happened by now, it’s not happening until late June at the earliest.
@Elijah: You got the side effect right there.
@matthole: Only spring ball.
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March 20th, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Hey Grey, Happy Saturday…..I know that Chapman and Starsburg have been hogging the ST spotlight, but what about Brian Matusz? I know the dreaded AL East, but is this guy worth a roster spot in most 10/12 man leagues? He has had a pretty solid Spring. Thoughts??
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@Carl Spackler: He’s in my top 80 starters rankings. He’s a risky 4th fantasy starter with 3rd starter upside.
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March 20th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
@Grey: Elroy Cohen, gets the gas face!!!! Nice 3rd Bass ref, and a much underused term if you ask me.
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