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This week’s Fantasy Roundtable is hosted by Big Jon Williams over at Advanced Fantasy Baseball.

THE TOPIC:  You find yourself in 7th place in a 15 team mixed 5×5 league.  You’ve just lost your best hitter to injury and your pitching isn’t that good.  If you really want to win, what do you do?

Spoiler alert! There’s no fool-proof way to do this – no matter how much you really really want to win – but there’s some good advice in here nonetheless.

39 Responses

  1. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    im getting manny back soon but peavy and bedard going to be hard to overcome,hanson needs to cowboy up for me

  2. @ GREY and ANYONE

    Need some mad help here:

    Just got Holliday/Fat Papi for Johan Proposed to me…..

    I am thinking NO BRAINER i do this? I get JOHAN.

    Got papi off waivers. No loss?

    Here’s my offense just in case you’re wondering. I already have a good staff, but who couldnt use JOHAN?

    C- B. Molina
    1B- Ryan Howard
    2B- Cano
    3B-Wright
    SS- Alexie, TULO, and Hardy
    OF-Holliday, Kemp, Bruce, Eithier, juan rivera, CHOO,
    we play 3 OF’ers 3 utl slots…. plus i have VOTTO and CARLOS QUENTIN on the DL….

    My staff as of now: Beckett, Wainwright, shields, Slowey, Jurjjens, WOLF, ubaldo, frasor, qualls, fcordero, hawkins….

    I dont think it would hurt my O? and it would make my staff sick?

    THOUGHTS, HELP…..

  3. knighttown says:
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    Rudy, on a related note, I just posted my team in today’s comments whcih Grey moved over to the forums. I’m trying to do what the guy from the Albany Times is describing, that is, isolate a few categories to key in on. From the outside you seem like more the stats guy than Grey and I’d like to hear what you have to say about my long term goals with the team. You’ll find it under “Knighttowns Team”

  4. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Tony Y: yeah id grab it fast

  5. Thunder Dan says:
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    That roundtable was good. It got me thinking about moving Lincecum for hitting depth in my smart 16-team roto league. I’m not doing well, and I’m truly drowning in the R, SB and BA categories.

    The first place guy has Pedroia and Ellsbury, and he’s got options to replace those guys (move F.Lopez from SS to 2B, Peralta from BN to SS, pick an OF off the wire…hell, I could throw in Ryan Church from my second UTIL slot. I would probably drop him in this instance to make room for the new guys anyway).

    This trade would shore up my lineup and category weaknesses. Is it good value for Lincecum or should I try to find a better deal?

  6. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Rudy, not sure I agree with the contributors who recommend trading off pitching for hitting to make up ground in the second half.

    I ranked pitchers and hitters for 2nd half of 2008 descending according to points accrued (per my league format). The 30th ranked pitcher scored 67% of top pitcher. The 30th ranked hitter scored 74% of top hitter. I grouped in segments of 5 and got a similar dropoff.

    This was a pretty simplified and quick test, but I think gives pause to take a second look at 2nd half strategy. Yes, pitching drops off. However, that makes it that much more imperative to keep top pitching performers. It is easier to pick up new, young hitters that can get reasonably strong results than it is to acquire young pitchers who will perform strongly.

  7. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: “How about the cable company turned off my Internet access?” Ha! Worse would be that my computer goes no the fritz, and I have no access to tinker with my teams.

    I found the article interesting. I was wondering what you think about a comment Tommy Landry from Roto World made concerning maxing out your pitchers. I had previously attempted to keep my starts close to the average to reach max, but maxing out, and then using Mr. B’s the rest of the way – that was interesting. Would you suggest this strategy, not just in a league where you are far behind, but when you are competitive? (Of course, I’m presuming that one would use competitive starters.

  8. @knighttown: Ok, will try to take a look at it tonight.

    @Simply Fred: Agreed. I would look to move ‘sell high’ pitchers or hitters but with no preference towards one vs. the other. I traded Johan for Utley in one league last year b/c I was stronger in hitting than pitching. Johan went on fire and Utley trailed off greatly from a hot 1H but the trade still makes sense given that it was the best shot for my team to rebound.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Maxing out on starts is fine as long as you’re getting high quality starts throughout. It doesn’t make sense to me to rush to that max because: 1) I have an ace or two that I want to make sure I get every start from and 2) If I max out, I have no leverage to trade my starters b/c everyone knows I need to dump them. If the league is generally skewing over in starts/IPs, I’d anticipate that MR’s will become valuable and start cherry-picking off some of the better ones at the All-Star break. Sacrifice your worst SP and/or marginal hitters.

  9. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: Rudy, “Agreed” from you is gold.

    Your trade last year cries for a real measure of the impact. Probably, impossible. But, I am very curious what your standing would have been had you kept Johan. Any way to measure it???

  10. Doc says:
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    Bruce for Beckett?

  11. @Simply Fred: Ha…thanks. I didn’t download the totals but it would’ve been easy to figure out – just deduct Utley’s stats with the most likely hitter I would’ve had in the slot and Santana’s stats would replace the SP I used as his replacement. Given that Utley had a (relatively) poor 2H and Santana was lights out, there’s no doubt Johan was more valuable (hell, I had him #4 overall – he probably was 2nd overall to CC in the 2nd half). His value would’ve been less on my team since I already had a strong half of pitching to start with. So I just needed Utley to be close to as valuable as Johan for it to work out…as is, my team had other issues though….Here was the write-up I did on that team and how just a few decisions could make/break a team – http://razzball.com/looking-back-at-an-expert-league-2008-draft/

  12. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Beckett, last 3 years:
    Pre-allstar: 11-4, 4.75, 110 IP, 92K, in 19 GS
    Post-allstar: 5-7, 5.32, 94.2 IP, 66 K in 15 GS

    Bruce, last year:
    Pre-allstar: .270/.335/.429 with 6HR in 163 ABs
    Post-allstar: .244/.300/.468 with 15 Hr IN 250 ABs

  13. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Doc: sorry, keep forgetting the reference, see above.

  14. A guy just went collusion crazy in my league.

    I’m in first he’s in second and I just accepted Johan Santana for my Holliday/Big Papi….

    For one there’s no collusion. I’m dealing with the guy who won the league last year and quite frankly i dont like him! LOL

    Does anyone see that trade so lopsided it should be vetoed? Hell Papi’s been hitting, holliday’s been batting .290 since may, and could get traded to a contender real soon….????

  15. @Tony Y: I think Johan’s definitely the more attractive side of the trade (although his health is in a little question now) but it’s not veto-worthy.

  16. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: JUST got back from the Tetons and sighting moose. The “F-d with moose antlers” takes a little away from the experience.

  17. Jpm says:
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    Just drafted a mid-season team and I have an excess of good outfielders (N. Cruz, Ellsbury, Crawford, Adam Jones, Luke Scott), as I can only start 3. I’m weak at 2b and another team has an excess of 2bs. Would Cruz for Aaron Hill be a fair trade?

  18. clyde prompto says:
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    12 team AL only auction style keeper league. to keep a player, next year you add $5 to what you paid at auction. was offered jensen lewis/zobrist for my fuentes/franklin gutierrez. fuentes is my only save source, but zobrist would only be $7 out of my $260 budget next season. we play with CI/MI so decent players are at a premium. is he too much of a bargain to pass up? for a reference point, jhonny peralta went for $26 this year. the bidder was drunk, but so was everyone else.

  19. EricB says:
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    Currently I have Aramis Ramirez on my bench due to injury. He should be back soon. Before he went down, he was my corner infielder. Teixeira is at 1B. Wright at 3B. Figgins at CI now. I picked up Todd Helton in early May shortly after Ramirez went down, and he’s been filling in since then.

    My outfielders are Carlos Lee, Soriano, Pence, Kemp, and Colby Rasmus. Middle infielders are Ian Stewart, Stephen Drew, and Brandon Phillips. Catchers Kurt Suzuki and Iannetta. I see that 5th OF slot (Rasmus) as the weakness. Do you agree?

    With that lineup I rank 6th of 10 teams in HRs. I need to boost the power. I’m 2nd/3rd in SBs and can’t afford to lose much there without a precipitous drop. The plan is to trade Todd Helton when Ramirez returns.

    Finally, here’s the question: What kind of power-hitting OF do you think I could get straight up for Helton? What if I packaged Helton with Clayton Kershaw for an OF? Who should I expect in return?

  20. Doc says:
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    Does Dan Haren actually have a 5-0 lead? this will be a good time for him to implode of course. Hochevar has 5 runs against him, but none earned?

  21. Doc says:
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    @Doc: Whoops, make that 4 earned for Chokevar.

  22. paulzone says:
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    considering hill/haren for crawford or beltran or wright.

    which one do you like most or too much for one player?

    ps. ibanez out hurts too (considering we play outfield positions)

  23. @Doc: you jinxed Haren, as soon as you wrote 5-0 lead he gives up 2…. still a SOLID outting tho

    @paulzone: keep beltran and wright….

    Is holliday/Papi for JOHAN vetoable? I’m getting some uproar in my league because i just accepted johan….?

  24. Seattle Zen says:
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    I am so tired of reading this vapid piece of advice: Pick up some Middle Relievers! Wow, their ERA and WHIPs are great and you get free wins!

    Well, if you look backwards, sure, it’s easy to see the wisdom of having so-n-so on your squad, but I have rarely seen anyone confident enough to propose you pick up Player X. Why? Well, in this post-steroid era, MR’s are not nearly as reliable as they used to be. Try chasing the hot MR of the moment, you know, after he lands two quick wins and a vulture save and you’ll just as likely get two stinkers in his next 10 appearances, giving you a craptastic 5.80 ERA and 1.78 WHIP.

    Go ahead, let your hopes of winning ride on Seth McClung, go right ahead.

  25. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Jpm: id try scott or elsbury,hate to trade cruzzer

  26. Holliday/Papi for Johan VETOABLE????

    ANYONE?

  27. paulzone says:
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    @Tony Y: sorry i am offering haren/hill for one of them. crawford plays left field now that ibanez is out..too much?

  28. paulzone says:
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    how about offering haren for carlos lee?

  29. paulzone says:
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    one more…pick two of these three closers:

    gonzalez, qualls, downs

  30. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Tony Y: Not even close to a veto.

    Clearly the guy has an abundance of pitching and needs bats. He’s hoping for a hot 2nd half from both those guys. Your league needs to chill out, tell em Hippo said so…………

  31. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @BigFatHippo: tell them to have a drink and chill

  32. BigFatHippo says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Exactly, Miller Chill……………..

  33. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @BigFatHippo: you havent sent me a trade yet?

  34. RIP Harry says:
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    Anyone got a midseason league I can get into?

  35. @BigFatHippo: hippo i posted your message along with 3 others and some more from fantasy cafe….. unreal, there’s 4 votes to shoot down me getting JOHAN for papi/holliday…. which i think i’m winning big, but hell johan has been blown up 2 starts in a row and given up a HR in his last 5 or 6 straight! PLUS its pretty much just a case of people are angry because its a 12 team H2H deal, 20 cats, and i’m in first and getting JOHAN, and they’re pee’ing a little down their legs…. oh well.

    Here’s my theory i hope it goes thru. If it doesn’t I hope Johan has an arm prob and Holliday gets dealt to boston? and then Papi reverts back to BIG PAPI and i laugh in all their faces!

    ?

  36. Thunder Dan says:
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    Re: Johan for Papi/Holliday

    I wouldn’t veto it, but I wouldn’t accept that deal either (unless I was the one getting Johan).

    Hell, Rudy thinks I should ask for more than Pedroia/Ellsbury for Lincecum (thanks, btw). I value those two pitchers just about equally, and I’d take the BoSox pair over your two underachievers any day.

  37. Aaron Pil says:
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    Rudy, you gave the best advice on the round table. Your going to need to take some risks to try and win.

  38. @Thunder Dan: No prob. Good luck in the Lincecum negotiations – it’ll be hard to get full value for him since people hate giving up top hitters but hopefully you get at least one top hitter for them (Crawford would be a nice pull given your speed need)

    @Aaron Pil: Thanks!

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