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So I got bored this week and decided to look at some deep rooted stats. I was looking for fantasy pitchers who don’t K a lot but are still very useful for fantasy purposes, and wouldn’t you know it, it relates well to a lot of options this week. These guys get overlooked by everyone. I’m here to learn you something. Not all pitchers who have over a 7 K/9 are candidates for rosterability. There are other factors that lead these low K/9 pitchers to greater success, they have peripherals that are better than the guys we roster. It seems that there is an affection toward pitchers who will get you more K’s but hurt your ERA and WHIP as opposed to getting a starter that has a low K-rate and helps with ERA and WHIP. All the starters I list every week are based off the roster status on multiple fantasy services and I usually use less than 50% ownership (with some variances here and there). So with that, I am telling you not to forget about the guys who get it done but go unnoticed because they aren’t Brandon Morrow. They still help just as much as the “productive” players or guys we think are more productive than they actually are. I ask you this:  Would you rather have an ERA of 2.50 with 6 K’s in two starts or an ERA of 4.50 and 12 K’s in two starts?  I understand that guys contribute to both exist, but are already owned and usually the top 30-40 pitchers overall. I’m merely talking about cusp of the roster guys. Enjoy the week to come. (Please keep in mind that pitchers and matchups change.)

ONE START OPTIONS:

6/28
Clayton Richard vs. KC – Paulino

6/29
Carlos Carrasco @ Bal – Arrieta
Paul Maholm @ Tor – Morrow
Tim Stauffer vs. KC – Chen

6/30
Jeff Karstens @ Tor- Villanueva
Mike Pelfrey @ Det – Verlander

7/1
Juan Nicasio vs. KC – Davies
Tim Wakefield @ HOU – Norris
Bronson Arroyo vs. Cle – Masterson

Kevin Correia (@Tor vs. Reyes, @Was vs. Marquis) Should be a line painter he is so good on the road. Home/away splits are hard to ignore. Go look. See told ya. Lack of K’s make him kind of boring. I have to go dust off my Omar Moreno jersey as I told myself I would never wear it until they reach .500 in July.

John Lannan (@Ana vs. Santana, Pit vs. McDonald) ERA at 1.15 over the last 6 starts. Jump on board and ride the hot hand. Low K guys are the Monty Capuletti of fantasy. The Nats are on a pretty decent roll right now.

R.A. Dickey (@Det vs. Porcello, NYY vs. Garcia) Deserves better. Only one win to show for his 2.35 ERA over the last month. Odd stat o’ the day, Metco is a pitchers haven but his ERA is lower on the road by a run.

Jason Hammel (CHW vs. Floyd, KC vs. Francis) Pitching in Colorado stinks. It’s pretty cut and dry, ERA’s get bloated, WHIP’s get taken to the shed. Pitches just bad enough that his offense can’t help him. Last resort for deep leagues this week.

Jason Marquis (@Ana vs. Pineiro, Pit vs. Correia) Has pitched surprisingly awesome and fits the bill for the above mentioned low K guys. Gets hit around a little but pitches to contact so what do you expect? Home ERA in the mid 2’s.

Jordan Lyles (Tex vs. Wilson, Bos vs. Miller) Two tough matchups, both lineups can hit. Pitched okay last week against the Rangers. The Astros pitchers are horrible to chase wins with. K/BB rate of 4/1. Lefties only hitting .208 against.

Nick Blackburn (LAD vs. Billingsley, Mil vs. Greinke) Yet another low K guy, I can’t make this stuff up. June ERA is 2.04.  Wait, it gets better for the unappreciated, home ERA for the year is 2.40. Matchup names are scary, but anyone seen Minnesota play lately. No, go ask Buster Poindexter then.

Ryan Vogelsong (@CHC vs. Davis, @Det vs. Scherzer) You see that thing in the horizon, yeah that’s the ship that sailed. I pimped and pimped for as long as I could but he finally graduated to usefulness. Who is the next american pitcher to come back from Japan? I did the research for ya, it’s Bryan Bullington.

Andrew Miller (@Phi vs. Lee, @Hou vs. Lyles) Watched his first start, he pitched okay, and it was against the Friars. K potential is nice, being a tether ball isn’t. I asked Jerry Remy after the game what he thought, his quote “Not now, kid.” Dynamite stuff, Remdog.

Brandon Beachy (@Sea vs. Bedard, Bal vs. Britton) Prolly the most added guy in any league or format for the next week. The 11 K outing makes everyone think “I want some of that goodness.” Only bad thing I can see is he may give up some taters… Mmmm taters.

29 Responses

  1. MrHappyTime says:
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    Would you entertain the idea of dropping Jonathan Sanchez for Erik Bedard? I honestly never thought I would, but the thought has been crossing my mind. Sanchez has been killing me lately, thanks in advance mate..

  2. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    Smokey:so,Im kinda desperate for a SP or two with Roy-o riding his tractor off into the sunset.Anyway,couple of questions,10 team 8×8 h2h keeper(K/9,QS)….

    1)would you give up Morse for Vogelsong straight up?Im currently using Morse at UTL,w/ Crawford on the DL and Bossman,Andrus and Sandoval on my bench.

    2)should I be pushing hard to move Ogando?in other words,is a serious correction coming like everyone seems so convinced of?

    and 3)how much longer do I get to ride the super productive,K-tastic Pineda train?Will the M’s shut him down around 150 IP?

    thnks.

  3. Bré Jus says:
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    Does anyone know if Tommy Hanson is supposed to get 2 starts next week?

  4. CL says:
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    @anyone:

    speaking of Hanson… I was just offered Mauer for Hanson. Thoughts?

    I love Hanson on my team… it’s 10 team dynasty. I’d be foolish to sell Hanson, right? For a catcher?

  5. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @MrHappyTime: Entertain sure, but Bedard is a huge what if. I would try to sell Sanchez first though.

    @Oilcan Giuseppe: 1-I am a little higher on Morse, and Vogelsong has been really useful. 2-Yes. A correction is coming, innings sneak up on inexperienced pitchers and than boom. See if you can package Ogando and morse for a bigger upgrade in pitching, would move it up to the tier of something a lot more useful.
    3- Dude is horse, i dont think they limit him unless than are way out of the race.

    @Bré Jus: Threw bullpen yesterday and went Ok, is scheduled for Tuesday. I have the remote feeling that they push the second start back to next monday/tuesday and he becomes a 2 start guy the following week.

  6. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @CL: Yea i would pass.

  7. CL says:
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    Thanks for confirming my gut, Smokey. Enjoy the weekend! Go Phils!

  8. JG_ism says:
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    @ Any & All

    Hold on to this Lilly guy or substitute him with this Blackburn guy?

  9. elwood blues says:
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    Well, I picked up Volquez last week, that gamble for some much-needed wins hasn’t panned out. Do I hold onto him and hope for better or dump him.. Also, is it time to bail on Nolasco, NL Only 4×4 league??

  10. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Smokey: Smokey, wassup with Bullington? His inner bulldog shining through in Japan?

  11. J!m Future says:
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    Beckett’s next start was pushed back, so Miller goes tomorrow @PIT, not Monday @PHI.

  12. Bré Jus says:
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    Thanks, Smokey.

  13. Bré Jus says:
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    @CL:

    Dude, Hanson might be the best pitcher in baseball next year.

  14. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @JG_ism: Depends on league size but he is becoming more of a match up type guy at least for the moment.

    @elwood blues: NL only prolly not on Nolasco, i never was a fan of Volquez.

    @Terrence Mann: Well by Japanese standards he is pitching well, another guy is DJ Houlton formally of the dodgers.

    @J!m Future: Thx for the heads up.

  15. Lopes says:
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    ogondo or niese?

  16. Probable Party Starter says:
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    No Santana? He’s better at home and his career numbers against the Nats and Dodgers are respectable.

  17. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Lopes: Ogando

    @Probable Party Starter: I try to get guys that are owned less than 50% in most leagues. He is a good one for teh week though.

  18. MrHappyTime says:
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    Who do you trust the most for a spot start tomm? Luebke vs ATL, Outman @ Philly, Fister @ FLA, or Gee @ Tex? Thanks

  19. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @MrHappyTime: Fister from those choices followed by Luebke than Gee.

  20. Howard says:
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    Hi Smokey, what do you think of these road matchups today?

    Niese @ Texas
    Liriano@ Milwaukee
    Arroyo @ Baltimore

  21. Carl says:
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    for today, who do you prefer?

    Volstad vs SEA
    Duffy vs CHC
    Chatwood @ LAD

    Thanks Smokey

  22. AnotherFalstaff says:
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    @Smokey – Lyles’ two starts or Carrasco @ AZ or Gallardo @ MN? Thanks!

  23. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    what are the odds that Ron Washington sends Oh-god-no back out to pitch the 4th inning?….Oh well,between this start and Oswalt the other night,Ive lost ERA this week.

    I guess this is the Ogando correction I keep hearing about?

  24. Oilcan Giuseppe says:
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    Smokey:remember earlier when I asked you about selling Ogando?….y’think the sell high ship has sailed?…lol.

  25. Scalez says:
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    @Oilcan Giuseppe: I see you you and raise you a Bumgarner.

  26. Howard says:
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    @Smokey Who do you like ros between Gee and Niese? Niese had to leave his start today because of a ‘rapid heartbeat’ but still had 7k in 5ip.

  27. C.O.C. says:
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    16 team H2H weekly, would you start Andrew Miller @Hou, or Mike Leake @TB and at home against Cle?

  28. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Howard: Niese, as long as everything checks out ok.

    @C.O.C.: Leake

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