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As the old adage goes, ‘Spare the rod, spoil the child’.  Hrm, I was going to make a reference to ‘caning’ and ‘Singapore’ here but it seems I’ve fumbled it worse than Mark Sanchez did with his slide into the backside of Moore.  Yes, that was a football reference.  Deal with it.  You’re reading the works of none other than the main editor/writer for Razzball fantasy football, so some pigskin is gonna leak over no matter what I do.  But more to the point, I’ve been bringing the Discount Double Check series to you this pre-season in the hopes we can find some potential sleepers for 2013 fantasy baseball, and what better way to do that than to revisit a former Grey love in Lorenzo Cain.  Grey really wouldn’t leave this man alone in 2012.  At some point I’m sure he got addicted to Cain…SUGAR!  The fact he didn’t land on Celebrity Rehab with Dr. Drew is a bit surprising as he was snorting lines of confectionery by late March.  At least that’s what he told me when I asked about the white powder caking his nose.  But back to the point, we’re here today to look at Lorenzo and see if his current ADP of 223 is warranted or if he’s going at a discount for 2013 fantasy baseball…

Let’s get some things out of the way: Cain is able.  You see that?  The reference is done and we didn’t have to make any stretching biblical quotes.  It’s also just a true statement so let’s move on.  After all the pre-season love, Cain gave his owners an end line of 7 HRs, 31 RBIs, 27 runs and 10 steals to go with a .266 average in 222 at-bats.  Unfortch, a solid fantasy season for Cain was impeded by the injury bug.  So it goes without saying a full year really is Lorenzo’s Oil.  Ohhh, I myself shuddered  at that one.  But honestly, you take his 2012 line and prorate it over 450 AB, you get a solid HR/SB total (14/20).  Given he was moved all around the lineup last year – his highest total of ABs came in the lead off role with 66 – averaging out his runs or RBIs would be a tad dishonest.  He’s a 70 or 80 RBI or run guy depending where he sticks in the lineup.  Unlike my Carlos Gomez fantasy review, what’s intriguing about Cain is he can hit for average.  In over 2000 minor league at-bats leading up to his debut with the Brewers in 2010, Cain maintained a career .285 average to go with all the power/speed combo he’s already exhibited at the pro-level.  If Cain can drop his K% from 2012 back down to his 2010-2011 averages, he should have no problem attaining that average or higher.  Couple that with his speed potential and that he plays for a Royals team that even let Jeff Francoeur steal 22 back in 2011 (with 10 CS…facepalm), Cain’s 2013 bag swiping numbers output might be better than even my prorated 2012 stats put him in line for.  In the end, Cain is probably not a discount.  What?  I thought the conclusions of these were supposed to make us feel like we were getting a bargain.  I know I’m reading this for free but I feel like I just got robbed.  Calm down, readers, I mean in terms of his surrounding talent.  But would I rather take Cain where he’s going over a guy like Norichika Aoki and his 115 ADP price tag?  Yup.  But is he going near guys like Ichiro Suzuki and Brett Gardner who could be considered reasonable but not huge discounts?  Yup again.  Cain profiles as an OF5 and is getting drafted as such.  The main thing being, he has OF4 potential so the bargain is there, if ever so slight.

If everything clicks just right – the Royals become an offensive juggernaut, Cain stays healthy and plays a bit above his head – you could get a Shane Victorino circa 2010 out of him, but that’s you and me dreaming together.  Last time I checked, you’re not Leonardo DiCaprio and I’m not Ellen Page…but if I were Ellen Page, I’d probably enjoy it too much and never leave the house.  Wait, what?  Oh yeah, I still like Lorenzo for your team and mine but just don’t go jumping out of the gates to prove it unless you’re in a deeper league.

  1. Hats for Bats says:
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    hey Sky. I was just reading an article on MLB.com about Nolan Reimold. You think he has a chanc to be a sleeper / big contributor for the Orioles? Should I consider using a last pick on him or wait n see w/ waivers (and by waivers i mean wait until after them) to grab him . . . . possibly?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Hey Hats. I have had a crush on this man since he came up, truthfully. That said, I don’t think you need to spend a pick on him unless it’s a really deep league. My understanding is he’s splitting ABs with McClouth to start the year. If news arises that McClouth is a 4th OF, sure dive in but I wouldn’t hold my breath. If he could give you a full year, .260 25/10 is a real possibility and if he keeps at the top of the order, plenty of runs.

  2. Steve says:
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    Grey should count himself lucky he did not end up being rehabbed by Dr Drew. I think I read yesterday, that 5 celebs who have been on that show have subsequently died…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Wow, really? That’s nuts. Of course, they were already nuts and had money. So they were eccentric instead. I don’t know if this makes me a callous a-hole or just a dog lover but the fact Mindy killed her dog makes me not care she passed away one bit. That’s messed up.

      • Steve says:
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        @Sky: Well, I think I ready it on Twitter, so it must be true.

  3. PhillyYorker says:
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    I’m in a 4 keeper league. I drafted Stanton, lucked into Trout, and picked up an inexplicably dropped Strasburg sometime after he was shut down.

    In an 6 cat OBP/SLG league, who’s my fourth: Utley, Howard, Jennings, Hanley, Rizzo or Gio Gonzalez?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @PhillyYorker: Tough, you’ve got a lot of good keeps there. I’d take Hanley for the 20/20 factor in a good lineup and target Jennings/Gio/Rizzo in the draft.

  4. Piranhaman says:
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    hi, Sky. thanks for your sleeper list.

    i need your advice now. i’m in 10 teams roto league.

    looking for SB help from waiver wire. here’s my roster.

    C- Doumit
    1B- Ike
    2B- Zobrist
    3B- Zimmerman
    SS- A-Cab
    IF- Kendrys
    OF- Kemp
    OF- Stanton
    OF- Ellsbury
    OF- Gordon
    UT- Middlebrooks
    UT- Frazier

    SP- Cain/ Latos
    RP- Wilhelmson/ Grilli/ Janssen
    P- Medlen/ Samardjiza/ Vogelsong

    BN- Rutledge/ Robot Jones
    BN- Minor/ Hughes/ Ogando/ Cobb

    and now, both Eaton and Marte are available.

    Q1) if i should grab one of them, who’s your choice?

    Q2) then, who to drop?

    +Q) i have interest to grab Jason Hammel. good plan? and who to drop?

    thank you, Sky :)

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks!

      Drop Robot for Marte. Higher upside than Eaton. Prefer not to have much of a hitting bench but I’d hold Rutledge for now.

      I’d drop Ogando for Hammell. K potential as a starter is higher even if the wins aren’t there.

      Good luck this year!

      • Piranhaman says:
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        @Sky: oh, thanks for advice.

        actually, i expected robot would raking righties. i’m scared of holding unproven rookies. but i’ll follow your opinions. Marte and Hammel will be mine, thanks :)

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Nothing against Robot but if I’m keeping someone on my bench as a hitter I’m looking for upside if the season hasnt started. That’s all. Anyways good luck!

  5. In a league with a cap of 55 dollars (about a fifth of a normal league) what is Cain worth at auction? 1 dollar? Less? Thx.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      @Noahdad: Interesting, can you actually spend less than a $1? He’s going in the dollar rounds for sure so he’s worth 20 to 25 cents? Just curious, why $55? Was this this first ever fantasy baseball league and you’ve all refused to go up with inflation?

  6. Paddyman says:
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    Hey sky, didn’t I read somewhere recently where Grey was saying Cain is having wrist issues? Am I confusing him with someone else? Any Razzers remember that comment?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      I remember the comment and went and read about it. It didn’t sound serious, more precautionary. Unless something has changed, that’s what I remember

    • Big Magoo says:
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      @Paddyman: Posted on rotoworld a few days ago:

      Lorenzo Cain was held out of regular batting practice Sunday after injuring the back of his right hand during drills in the cage.
      The Royals don’t believe the ailment is serious, so Cain should be ready to return soon. He batted .266/.316/.419 with seven homers, 31 RBI and 10 stolen bases in 222 at-bats during an injury-plagued 2012 season. Feb 17 – 2:52 PM
      Source: Bob Dutton on Twitter

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        Yeah that’s what I saw. Probably something you play thru in regular season or only miss one game for

  7. Big Magoo says:
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    Btw, artist formerly known as ONC, I’ve enjoyed checking in on your slow mock in the forums. I can definitely see a lot of Grey influence going on (surprise, surprise) especially in your team and Nick’s as well. Then you’ve got Tehol’s risk/reward team, Andrew’s arms race, and the rest look like a balance of everything. I kinda like chrisV82’s team the best so far though. Nice balance of power/speed on offense and high-K starters.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Haha, it’s funny; I found Razzball a few years back because I was drafting this way already and fell in love with a kindred spirit. It was like finding your fantasy baseball soulmate only she had a mustache.

      I’m glad someone’s been keeping up! It’s definitely been a labor of love. Hoping I can get Grey to turn the War Room into an actual mock draft forum some day to make it a tad easier.

      So far I haven’t watched the other guys too closely. It’s the burden of being the ring leader. I’m herding but can’t see whose the best of the flock. I’m about ready to get interested in closers but want to nab either my C or my 2B next. Hopefully the ones I want are still available.

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Sky: From what I’ve seen, it looks like most of the good second basemen have dried up, unless you like Walker or Kendrick (avail?) or want to roll the dice on Utley or Uggla. Rosario might look pretty good on your squad if available.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Uggla and Rosario are my targets. Feeling an Uggla bounceback this year. Maybe not 30 HRs but 25 and above .240 and I’m making a profit at this point

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Sky: Go with your gut. I think that Rosario is a better bet to match or exceed those numbers than Uggla though.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Rosario should get to 30 HRs with about 50 more ABs. I’m all about finding as much power in the draft as possible even with BA risks. I can fix that later if I need to, but I can’t fix drafting closers and speedsters when all the power is leaving the building

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Sky: Just noticed that you have BJ and Chris Davis. Your BA might be dicey with another sub-.250 hitter (I don’t expect Davis to top that mark). I’d take the under on .240 for Uggla too. He might hit 25 HRs but he was missing by a lot in the ABs I saw last year.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Not too worried about the BA. Fifth OF and MI are gonna be average with speed if I land those two.

              I think Uggla put too much pressure on him to be THE guy in that offense. He’s not that guy and has never been that guy. His IFFB were ridiculous last year. If that normalizes (Read: he stops pressing because now he’s 6th in the lineup and not 3 or 4), there’s no reason he can’t get back around .240+. Besides, Howie Kendrick just went in the 11th proving 2B is a cesspool for everyone. I’m not too worried.

              • Big Magoo says:
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                @Sky: I hear ya. I just think that it puts you behind the eight ball a little bit if you draft three or more guys who don’t project to hit .250+ with neutral luck, especially if they’re one-trick ponies like Uggla. A player like BJ is a different story cause he fills the stat sheet, but that’s also why he gets drafted much earlier.

                Also, I’m not sure who you’re targeting at MI, but it’s a little risky to hope to offset an Uggla-type in the BA column with a Simmons or Segura kind of player, who carry plenty of risk as well.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  For me, I see taking draft risk like that very important. My main thing is I can find speed and average in the player pool After a draft and that’s where I take my chances. It’s all about asking what particular risk you’re willing to take and BA is that for me

  8. Big Magoo says:
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    I like the Rosario pick. .260/25/75 out of your catcher is always nice. I have a feeling that a closer run is going to be happening soon.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Thanks! Yeah I’m about 3 picks away from nabbing my first. If I miss Uggla I won’t cry. Don’t think he’s going anywhere right now anyways. I’m near my HR needs anyways for that ‘perfect’ team. Already have in my mind what I want for my last 4 offensive players with 2B still a wildcard. Gonna start filling out my rotation mostly.

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Sky: Yeah, you should be able to get one of Utley, Uggly, Walker, or Seager (elig?) at your 15-16 swing. I’d double up on closers or go starter-closer.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Seager isn’t eligible at 2B cuz we’re going off of the RCL ESPN format but yeah, I’m not too worried about having a ‘weak’ 2B. I think people have tricked themselves into thinking Aaron Hill/Jason Kipnis are somehow safe bets. I’d rather just fill it with rebound or yawnstipation than spend a high pick on it. I’m gonna guess Uggly will still be around when I need him.

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Sky: If you wanna take a chance, Utley played at a 20/20 pace for a half season last year. His knees might be held together by duct tape, but he’s still a solid option when healthy.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Yeah I hear ya but it’s really hard to trust a 34 year old MI who hasn’t played in more than 115 games in a season in 3 years. He’s on my avoid list. Would rather just pursue Ackley at that point. Young enough to improve and doesn’t have the bad health history.

              • Big Magoo says:
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                @Sky: Fair enough. He’s probably more useful in leagues with deeper benches. I’d consider double-dipping on closers, unless you have one in the bag and there are still at least a dozen or so guys that you like on the board in the 14th. I think you’ll see a run in the 14th-15th.

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Yeah, I’m probably dipping into the arms heavy overall the next few rounds. A doubledip into the RP pools is highly likely with my next two. Just not worried about OF5/2B/MI/UTIL. The guys I like will be there and even if they aren’t, the guys that make due will be there as well. Now just wish Scott Evans would make his freakin pick so I can get this show on the road! Seriously, this mock has been fun. First fun mock I’ve had in…well, forever.

                  • Big Magoo says:
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                    @Sky: Just tell him that he doesn’t need to take the slow mock so literally. Yeah, a mock where everyone’s actually present and trying is always fun. The ones with the auto-drafters are basically a waste of time.

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Exactly. Scott’s been pretty good about it so far, really. Next time, I’ll probably put things in EST/PST order. There’s three PST’ers near the end but the last two are EST. Of course, the draft order will always sway but at the end of the day, we’re usually waiting for Trevor or Capozzi because it’s 7:45 and we’re in the clear to draft and won’t get to do anything until we wake up to 4 guys being off the board before we’ve even had our coffee.

                      Ooops, breaking news: Utley off the board! Scott just made his pick. Now onto Smokee and then my first closer. Go me!

  9. Big Magoo says:
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    Soriano was still there – sweet! If you can get Nathan, Rivera, or Romo (or Rodney or Putz, if you prefer) you’ll be good to go. Let everyone else fight over the Leagues and Hanrahans of the world.

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Yup, I have a strong chance at that closer pool coming back to me. I’m making Frieri my late 3rd closer pick. Wonder how many people actually trust Madsen coming into spring.

      • Big Magoo says:
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        @Sky: Yeah, I think Frieri runs with the job as long as he keeps his walks under control. Madsen’s on a reasonable one-year deal, so I don’t think the Sciosiopath will feel the need to make him the guy if Frieri’s doing well.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          Yeah, the big thing with Frieri for me is the K’s. If I have two reliable closers and want a flier on him, even if I only get 10 saves from him, I can still have 90+ punchouts to go with good ratios. Worth it as my 3rd closer.

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