I’m here to (hopefully) contribute to your fantasy baseball team’s success by highlighting a player who is under-owned and may contribute in a big way this week. Sounds kind of like Grey’s buy/sell on Fridays, but without the funny, with the parenthetical remarks, and a focus on one player who I’m looking at for one week.
This week, that player is: Jason Bay. He’s owned in less than 15% of ESPN leagues as of today, and he’s slated for 8 games this week, five at home, three on the Moon. Is Coors really on the Moon? Even my grandfather knows that about Coors, and he races cars. Bay gets four LHP in these 8 games and two LHP in Coors, and since the start of 2011 he’s hit .294 with 7 HR in 119 AB against them. Even Citi should prove to be friendlier confines; left-center in Citi is half its old height (8′, down from 16′) and is now 358′ deep.
As a bonus, here’s why I think Bay could pay dividends for the rest of the season and not just this week: if we regress Bay’s HR/FB rate to his career average of 15.2 – which is well off his peak rate, thanks to his horrific 2010 and 2011 seasons – and apply it to last season, he would have produced the following:
21 HR, 68 R, 66 RBI, 11 SB, .266 AVG/.346 OBP
I added 9 solo HR to his totals for simplicity. Not bad, right? And that’s in 123 games/444 AB. I was tempted to input his current HR/FB% of 23.1, but (small sample size alert) unless his head has grown two sizes he won’t keep that up. According to Hit Tracker, his 3 HR this season have an average distance of 426′, with average speed off the bat of 107.6 MPH. His longest HR (437′) was off Cliff Lee, and taken to right-center. His other two HR were to center and left-center and were also over 400′. Measure this up with the new Citi Field, and he may reach that 15.2% HR/FB rate. His contact numbers are right in line with career averages and he’s swinging at the fewest pitches outside the zone in his career, which for stat nerds means he’s going to continue earning plenty of walks without bombing you with Ks.
More than just an add for this week, if everything falls just right, he could come reasonably close to his previous power and speed goodness and be an excellent contributor in 5 OF and OBP leagues for the rest of the season. Don’t sell the farm for him, but consider putting the sick cow to pasture and take a chance. At least for this week.
Bay isn’t in the 4 o’clock game. Dang. Good post tho.
@Smokey, Gah. He’ll face off against Bumgarner tonight, then, and get 4 LHP in 7 games this week. Still feel pretty good about that, with many teams only getting six games this week.
@Smokey, Thanks!
he was just dropped in a 12 team league
drop him for Rios, Belt, Goldschmidt, Doumit or hold
@BASH, Doumit
@BASH, maybe doumit if you have a catcher already
@Chunk, Agreed. Wish me luck , my catcher is named JESUS.
@BASH, I’m praying for you.
AROD and billingsley or josh Johnson for Adam Jones?
I am getting jones
Thanks!
@Mike, Billingsley. Did you try ARod for Jones straight up?
Didn’t try yet…is that too much for jones?
I am treating billingsley as a throw in since so many other pitchers similar to him?
I’d treat him the same…
nice article, though would be great if you could drop these on sundays as i think most weekly leagues need to have the rosters set by then. i needed an outfielder for my weekly league yesterday and picked up ibanez – should get 2 starts in texas so hopefully does something there.
@dzigga, Thanks! That is the plan moving forward.
Weekly H2H – cuddyer or stubbs this week?
thanks!
@Move along…., Close, but Stubbs is at home all week. If you need average, Cuddyer, if you want speed, Stubbs. I’d give the nod to Stubbs.
I grabbed him before reading your post, am I good or just lucky?
Anyway would be nice to see a start of the old J-Bay again, did feel the fences moving in could help a lot being a righty.
@TheNewGuy, Both!
I just traded Hamilton for Fielder. I’m either brilliant or an idiot. I just can’t tell.
Yes, this has Nothing to do with the article. But none of my friends are down with the FB-ball and I had to tell someone.
Also, Jason Bay makes me sad. He was good… but now he’s not. no one should own him. Poor little fella.
@Dan-o, Ha… not a bad deal. Per game Hamilton has higher upside, but Fielder is a near lock to play every day and also isn’t bad himself.
@Feeding the Abscess, I’m in a H2H. I always get burned by injury and inconsistency come playoffs.
@Dan-o, You solved some of that today
@Dan-o,
It’s even now. It’ll be a great trade for you by July when Hamilton has missed a 15-20 games.
5×5 12 team daily roto league
ROS Samadzija or Detwiler?
@doghat666, Samardjiza has a higher ceiling and much lower floor. If this is back of the rotation decision, go with upside.
Pls rank for tomorrow:
Milone v CWS
Wolf v HOU
Sanchez @ CLE
Nicasio @ PIT
Alvarez @ BAL
@EK, Nicasio, Milone, Sanchez, Alva… but that’s just me.
If he were on any other team, I might put some creedence to him gravitating towards career averages. However, you forgot to factor in that he’s a NY Met. It’s where players on the cusp/back end of their careers go to be overpaid and underperform.
@Gavin, Ha. True. Worth a whirl for this week, at least
Lincecum makes it out of the first with ease………2Ks and a BB to Wright.
Good sign.
*Mets need to notify their bullpen that this is going to be a long day for them…..Bautista tee time!
@bean, Ha
Nice post!
I’ve gotta say that was damn quick to go from a comment on another post, to “Hey, what are you trying to get a weekly guest post”, to actually having a guest post. Well done and keep up the good work!
@A Hill O’ Beans, Thanks!
Would have been nice if I didn’t fall asleep shortly after and miss a bunch of questions… such hard work…
Rios, Bay, Markakis.
Who is best to have going forward this season?
@Wallpaper Patterson, I’m partial to Rios. Either way, the answer is not Bay.
@Wallpaper Patterson, I agree…..only thing good about Bay is his walk up music. Ironic that its “State of Love and Trust” for both fantasy owners and the Mets.
@Wallpaper Patterson, Rios has the lowest floor, Bay has the highest ceiling, Markakis the highest floor and lowest ceiling. I’d go Bay, if only because of the new fences in Citi
@Feeding the Abscess,
Thanks, guys. I have Markakis, but was wondering if I should get one of those other guys. De Aza is also available. I think he’d be a good play tonight anyway .
Hi guys,
For my utility spot in a H2H pts league: goldschmidt, Alex Rios or Laroche?
Thanks!
@JP, I prefer Rios
@Gavin, For this week, I agree. Rios
Been offered Halladay and Adam jones for Cabrera and billinglsey
H
What do u think ?????
@Mike, I wouldn’t want to trade Moobs’ production for a pitcher, even Doc Halladay. I’d hold unless someone like Morrow is your staff ace.
so i need a 2b….avilles, andino, nunez, altuve are all available to me. but i’d have to send off cozart (still loving him?) or ol’ man jeter.
decisions, decisions…but i need a 2b right away.
thoughts?
manchovies
@anchovies, Hope I didn’t miss your “right away” dealine…
Altuve then Aviles for 2B, not thrilled with dropping Jeter or Cozart, both of whom will score lots of runs leading off. This for MI or a starting 2B?
@Feeding the Abscess,
its for a starting 2B. gave up on rickie weeks and needed a pitcher last week.
yeah…i like cozart.
@anchovies, I’d try to trade for a 2B before dropping Cozart or Jeter, if you can.
or AROD straight up for Greinke?
@mike, I like that deal much more than I do Moobs for Doc if you need pitching.
Tony Campamania! Stole 2B and then stole 3B………all off of one AB.
How does he not start there?
Crazy thing is, he may not have to start to have value…
@Grey, I was thinking that myself. Doesn’t Sveum want 4 chances to get him on the base paths? Just insane speed to not want him out there all day.
Really think he could go first to third on a bunt.
Darn, terrible timing.
Jason Bay leaves games with bruised ribs.
@Eddy, If we’re optimists, he misses tomorrow’s game versus Josh Johnson and gets 3 out of 5 games against LHP, with 2 of those in Coors. Still plenty of opportunity for a good week.
@Feeding the Abscess, You are the eternal optimist and maybe more so than our friend Giancarlo. I would be shocked if he doesnt miss at least two games with bruised ribs.
Darn, no Pearl Jam!
What’s the deal with Morrow? Pitching to contact this year? 26.2 Innings and only 12 K’s (with games against CLE/BAL/KC)! Any thoughts.
@My My My My Kuroda, First start was velocity based, I’m sure. It’s back now, so that’s a good sign, and once he starts throwing first pitch strikes I think he’ll be okay.
Good article, bays hurt again.
@Mike, Staying positive! Hoping he only misses a day…
He hut the dirt hard on a catch.He may be tough and made his next AB(I think) but I gotta say you can’t land like that and play the next day.
Just my opinion.
@Hondo, And besides hutting the dirt,he fell all over it too.
@Hondo, Ha
@Grey, I know we all can point to Kemp and how truly talented he is but are we giving enough credit to Ethier in this? Maybe we can look at Braun right now and see the hole left by Prince in that lineup.
Not saying Kemp isn’t due credit for what he is doing but I just feel that Ethier is due some kudos here for protection. I know you think it’s a matter of time before he folds but this may be his big breakout year that people have been expecting.
@Bean, Kemp would hit anywhere. If Ethier hits well and stays healthy it’ll help Kemp’s runs total a little, but that’s it. I’d actually bat Ethier second if I were Mattingly since he gets on base, but that’s above my paygrade
So I pick him up an hour before the week starts and he goes and bruises his ribs. Move to rename article to CREEP of the week, am I right???
@Bash, Ha… that can be inferred as is
Grey, Drop Aybar for Alcides Escobar? I’m in need of a little more speed.
@Adam, Grey’s up one post on the main page, drop him a line there and he’ll give you a prompt answer!
@Feeding the Abscess, Thanks…sorry about that.
@Adam, No worries!
Cursed! Hehe
@TheNewGuy, Ha! Let’s hope not