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I’m here to (hopefully) contribute to your fantasy baseball team’s success by highlighting a player who is under-owned and may contribute in a big way this week. Sounds kind of like Grey’s buy/sell on Fridays, but without the funny, with the parenthetical remarks, and a focus on one player who I’m looking at for one week.

This week, that player is: Jason Bay. He’s owned in less than 15% of ESPN leagues as of today, and he’s slated for 8 games this week, five at home, three on the Moon. Is Coors really on the Moon? Even my grandfather knows that about Coors, and he races cars. Bay gets four LHP in these 8 games and two LHP in Coors, and since the start of 2011 he’s hit .294 with 7 HR in 119 AB against them. Even Citi should prove to be friendlier confines; left-center in Citi is half its old height (8′, down from 16′) and is now 358′ deep.

As a bonus, here’s why I think Bay could pay dividends for the rest of the season and not just this week: if we regress Bay’s HR/FB rate to his career average of 15.2 – which is well off his peak rate, thanks to his horrific 2010 and 2011 seasons – and apply it to last season, he would have produced the following:

21 HR, 68 R, 66 RBI, 11 SB, .266 AVG/.346 OBP

I added 9 solo HR to his totals for simplicity. Not bad, right? And that’s in 123 games/444 AB. I was tempted to input his current HR/FB% of 23.1, but (small sample size alert) unless his head has grown two sizes he won’t keep that up. According to Hit Tracker, his 3 HR this season have an average distance of 426′, with average speed off the bat of 107.6 MPH. His longest HR (437′) was off Cliff Lee, and taken to right-center. His other two HR were to center and left-center and were also over 400′. Measure this up with the new Citi Field, and he may reach that 15.2% HR/FB rate. His contact numbers are right in line with career averages and he’s swinging at the fewest pitches outside the zone in his career, which for stat nerds means he’s going to continue earning plenty of walks without bombing you with Ks.

More than just an add for this week, if everything falls just right, he could come reasonably close to his previous power and speed goodness and be an excellent contributor in 5 OF and OBP leagues for the rest of the season. Don’t sell the farm for him, but consider putting the sick cow to pasture and take a chance. At least for this week.

From Around The Web

  1. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    Bay isn’t in the 4 o’clock game. Dang. Good post tho.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Smokey, Gah. He’ll face off against Bumgarner tonight, then, and get 4 LHP in 7 games this week. Still feel pretty good about that, with many teams only getting six games this week.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Smokey, Thanks!

  2. BASH says:
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    he was just dropped in a 12 team league
    drop him for Rios, Belt, Goldschmidt, Doumit or hold

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @BASH, Doumit

    • Chunk says:
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      @BASH, maybe doumit if you have a catcher already

      • BASH says:
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        @Chunk, Agreed. Wish me luck , my catcher is named JESUS.

        • Chunk says:
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          @BASH, I’m praying for you.

  3. Mike says:
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    AROD and billingsley or josh Johnson for Adam Jones?
    I am getting jones
    Thanks!

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Mike, Billingsley. Did you try ARod for Jones straight up?

  4. Mike says:
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    Didn’t try yet…is that too much for jones?
    I am treating billingsley as a throw in since so many other pitchers similar to him?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d treat him the same…

  5. dzigga says:
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    nice article, though would be great if you could drop these on sundays as i think most weekly leagues need to have the rosters set by then. i needed an outfielder for my weekly league yesterday and picked up ibanez – should get 2 starts in texas so hopefully does something there.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @dzigga, Thanks! That is the plan moving forward.

  6. Move along.... says:
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    Weekly H2H – cuddyer or stubbs this week?

    thanks!

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Move along…., Close, but Stubbs is at home all week. If you need average, Cuddyer, if you want speed, Stubbs. I’d give the nod to Stubbs.

  7. TheNewGuy says:
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    I grabbed him before reading your post, am I good or just lucky?

    Anyway would be nice to see a start of the old J-Bay again, did feel the fences moving in could help a lot being a righty.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @TheNewGuy, Both!

  8. Dan-o says:
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    I just traded Hamilton for Fielder. I’m either brilliant or an idiot. I just can’t tell.

    Yes, this has Nothing to do with the article. But none of my friends are down with the FB-ball and I had to tell someone.

    Also, Jason Bay makes me sad. He was good… but now he’s not. no one should own him. Poor little fella.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Dan-o, Ha… not a bad deal. Per game Hamilton has higher upside, but Fielder is a near lock to play every day and also isn’t bad himself.

      • Dan-o says:
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        @Feeding the Abscess, I’m in a H2H. I always get burned by injury and inconsistency come playoffs.

        • Feeding the Abscess

          Feeding the Abscess says:
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          @Dan-o, You solved some of that today

    • Hawk says:
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      @Dan-o,

      It’s even now. It’ll be a great trade for you by July when Hamilton has missed a 15-20 games.

  9. doghat666 says:
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    5×5 12 team daily roto league

    ROS Samadzija or Detwiler?

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @doghat666, Samardjiza has a higher ceiling and much lower floor. If this is back of the rotation decision, go with upside.

  10. EK says:
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    Pls rank for tomorrow:

    Milone v CWS
    Wolf v HOU
    Sanchez @ CLE
    Nicasio @ PIT
    Alvarez @ BAL

    • Chunk says:
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      @EK, Nicasio, Milone, Sanchez, Alva… but that’s just me.

  11. Gavin says:
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    If he were on any other team, I might put some creedence to him gravitating towards career averages. However, you forgot to factor in that he’s a NY Met. It’s where players on the cusp/back end of their careers go to be overpaid and underperform.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Gavin, Ha. True. Worth a whirl for this week, at least

  12. bean says:
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    Lincecum makes it out of the first with ease………2Ks and a BB to Wright.

    Good sign.

    *Mets need to notify their bullpen that this is going to be a long day for them…..Bautista tee time!

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @bean, Ha

  13. A Hill O' Beans says:
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    Nice post!

    I’ve gotta say that was damn quick to go from a comment on another post, to “Hey, what are you trying to get a weekly guest post”, to actually having a guest post. Well done and keep up the good work!

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @A Hill O’ Beans, Thanks!

      Would have been nice if I didn’t fall asleep shortly after and miss a bunch of questions… such hard work…

  14. Wallpaper Patterson says:
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    Rios, Bay, Markakis.
    Who is best to have going forward this season?

    • Gavin says:
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      @Wallpaper Patterson, I’m partial to Rios. Either way, the answer is not Bay.

    • bean says:
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      @Wallpaper Patterson, I agree…..only thing good about Bay is his walk up music. Ironic that its “State of Love and Trust” for both fantasy owners and the Mets.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Wallpaper Patterson, Rios has the lowest floor, Bay has the highest ceiling, Markakis the highest floor and lowest ceiling. I’d go Bay, if only because of the new fences in Citi

      • Wallpaper Patterson says:
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        @Feeding the Abscess,
        Thanks, guys. I have Markakis, but was wondering if I should get one of those other guys. De Aza is also available. I think he’d be a good play tonight anyway .

  15. JP says:
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    Hi guys,

    For my utility spot in a H2H pts league: goldschmidt, Alex Rios or Laroche?

    Thanks!

    • Gavin says:
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      @JP, I prefer Rios

      • Feeding the Abscess

        Feeding the Abscess says:
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        @Gavin, For this week, I agree. Rios

  16. Mike says:
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    Been offered Halladay and Adam jones for Cabrera and billinglsey
    H
    What do u think ?????

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Mike, I wouldn’t want to trade Moobs’ production for a pitcher, even Doc Halladay. I’d hold unless someone like Morrow is your staff ace.

  17. so i need a 2b….avilles, andino, nunez, altuve are all available to me. but i’d have to send off cozart (still loving him?) or ol’ man jeter.

    decisions, decisions…but i need a 2b right away.

    thoughts?

    manchovies

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @anchovies, Hope I didn’t miss your “right away” dealine…

      Altuve then Aviles for 2B, not thrilled with dropping Jeter or Cozart, both of whom will score lots of runs leading off. This for MI or a starting 2B?

      • @Feeding the Abscess,

        its for a starting 2B. gave up on rickie weeks and needed a pitcher last week.

        yeah…i like cozart.

        • Feeding the Abscess

          Feeding the Abscess says:
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          @anchovies, I’d try to trade for a 2B before dropping Cozart or Jeter, if you can.

  18. mike says:
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    or AROD straight up for Greinke?

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @mike, I like that deal much more than I do Moobs for Doc if you need pitching.

  19. bean says:
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    Tony Campamania! Stole 2B and then stole 3B………all off of one AB.

    How does he not start there?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Crazy thing is, he may not have to start to have value…

      • bean says:
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        @Grey, I was thinking that myself. Doesn’t Sveum want 4 chances to get him on the base paths? Just insane speed to not want him out there all day.

        Really think he could go first to third on a bunt.

  20. Eddy says:
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    Darn, terrible timing.

    Jason Bay leaves games with bruised ribs.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Eddy, If we’re optimists, he misses tomorrow’s game versus Josh Johnson and gets 3 out of 5 games against LHP, with 2 of those in Coors. Still plenty of opportunity for a good week.

      • bean says:
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        @Feeding the Abscess, You are the eternal optimist and maybe more so than our friend Giancarlo. I would be shocked if he doesnt miss at least two games with bruised ribs.

        Darn, no Pearl Jam!

  21. My My My My Kuroda says:
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    What’s the deal with Morrow? Pitching to contact this year? 26.2 Innings and only 12 K’s (with games against CLE/BAL/KC)! Any thoughts.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @My My My My Kuroda, First start was velocity based, I’m sure. It’s back now, so that’s a good sign, and once he starts throwing first pitch strikes I think he’ll be okay.

  22. Mike says:
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    Good article, bays hurt again.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Mike, Staying positive! Hoping he only misses a day…

  23. Hondo says:
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    He hut the dirt hard on a catch.He may be tough and made his next AB(I think) but I gotta say you can’t land like that and play the next day.

    Just my opinion.

    • Hondo says:
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      @Hondo, And besides hutting the dirt,he fell all over it too.

      • Feeding the Abscess

        Feeding the Abscess says:
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        @Hondo, Ha

  24. Bean says:
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    @Grey, I know we all can point to Kemp and how truly talented he is but are we giving enough credit to Ethier in this? Maybe we can look at Braun right now and see the hole left by Prince in that lineup.

    Not saying Kemp isn’t due credit for what he is doing but I just feel that Ethier is due some kudos here for protection. I know you think it’s a matter of time before he folds but this may be his big breakout year that people have been expecting.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Bean, Kemp would hit anywhere. If Ethier hits well and stays healthy it’ll help Kemp’s runs total a little, but that’s it. I’d actually bat Ethier second if I were Mattingly since he gets on base, but that’s above my paygrade

  25. Bash says:
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    So I pick him up an hour before the week starts and he goes and bruises his ribs. Move to rename article to CREEP of the week, am I right???

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Bash, Ha… that can be inferred as is

  26. Adam says:
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    Grey, Drop Aybar for Alcides Escobar? I’m in need of a little more speed.

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @Adam, Grey’s up one post on the main page, drop him a line there and he’ll give you a prompt answer!

      • Adam says:
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        @Feeding the Abscess, Thanks…sorry about that.

        • Feeding the Abscess

          Feeding the Abscess says:
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          @Adam, No worries!

  27. TheNewGuy says:
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    Cursed! Hehe

    • Feeding the Abscess

      Feeding the Abscess says:
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      @TheNewGuy, Ha! Let’s hope not

Comments are closed.