Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

So here we sit at the quarter post of the season, closers have had some ups and some flops.  Staring at you Mr. Axford. Forecasting the next big closer blow-up is no easy business.  It’s kind of like yelling Bingo and not really having it, facing the scourge of the geriatric posse that is inhabiting such an establishment.  Let me just tell you it’s an awkward walk to get coffee or to your car afterward. So, I am not going to sit here and bold-fully predict the next closer to go down, because I am not Negrodamus or that fake Jamaican psychic.   But, I can tell you things that I notice that I don’t like or do like.  I like Heath Bell‘s re-established Heath Bell-ness.  I am buying Edward Mujica as a one-pitch pitcher.  I am worried about Chris Perez‘s career low numbers in categories that aren’t really stats but I pay attention to.  Mariano Rivera is the G.O.A.T., period.  It somehow took Jason Grilli 13 years to get where he is and that’s arguably the best fantasy reliever in baseball.  So hit the red bar and see how far this rabbit hole goes.

Rafael Betancourt – Hurt his groin, Rex Brothers got the save yesterday.  It doesn’t sound like a long term thing.  Every time I type Rex Brothers name it reminds me of Emmet Otter’s Jug Band Christmas.  Yeah, don’t ask, it’s a bunch of muppets on ice and playing instruments. Brothers should be owned as a cuff for the time being as Betancourt is no spring chicken or duck, how about of the ornithological variety.  Yeah, that’s the ticket.

Ryan Madson - Well so much for him coming back and foiling Frieri.  He has had a setback and will not throw for X amount of days.  I like using undefined variables, because it teaches my math teacher in H.S. a lesson for throwing me out of class for saying math is dumb and we will never use it ever.  Ha, take that…Oh wait I did just use it, dang it.  I wouldn’t hold onto Madson unless you have several DL spots available as I would want a guy giving me RP stats now rather than later.

Jim Johnson – Blew his third consecutive save on Monday vs. the Yanks.  He blew three saves all last year and converted 35 consecutive chances.  His first blown save ruined a record for the Orioles; they had previously gone 109-0 when leading after the 7th inning. I don’t foresee him being a candidate for replacement as he has the “In Buck We Trust” stamp encrusted on his pj’s.   Just in case your scouring the waiver wire for other options, Darren O’Day would get first shot.

Joel Peralta - In two weeks since last we looked at Holds guys, he has a save and 6 holds in his last 7 appearances.  I was a late bloomer too, but my season was over already by the 45th game of the season.

Shawn Kelley – Yeah, that guy.  Has the highest K/9 in baseball and the 3rd lowest xFIP amongst qualifers.  He has basically taken over for Joba in the house Next to the House that Ruth built.  Just to put those numbers in perspective, he has more K’s than Hiroki Kuroda in the last thirty days in half the innings. Look past the ERA and WHIP for a minute and realize those are dominating numbers from someone that you checked to see if there was an obituary for first.

Justin Wilson - A guy who missed on the chart below, don’t skip ahead.  Is tied for the team lead in wins (4) despite only pitching in 25 innings this year.  Add in his growing hold total – 2 in last 5 appearances -  and his lowest Batting average against for a RP and you have a guy who is a win-vulturing, up-and-comer in the hold department.  The Burg as a team have the third lowest bullpen ERA in baseball.

 

As ushh, the chart below is a look at the top MR in baseball by Holds and there situational usage.

PLAYER HOLDS Appearances
With Lead
Inherited
Runners
Inherited
Runners Scored
MarK Melancon 16 19 0 0
Jesse Crain 14 15 12 5
Trevor Rosenthal 13 17 9 2
Joel Peralta 12 16 6 1
Luke Gregerson 10 13 7 0
Matt Thornton 10 14 14 1
Scott Downs 9 13 9 3
Kenley Jansen 9 13 6 1
David Robertson 9 13 4 1
Junichi Tazawa 9 12 11 1
Koji Uehara 9 13 7 2
Jared Burton 9 13 1 1
Matt Belisle
8 13 8 1
David Hernandez 8 13 1 0
Tanner Scheppers 8 14 3 0
Jake McGee 8 14 5 2
Dale Thayer 8 11 12 0
Sean Doolittle 8 13 10 1
James Russell 7 14 18 4
Darren O’Day 6 13 11 3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. Mike says:
    (link)

    Would you drop Kenley Jansen for any of the closers mentioned above? Gregg is also available

    Thanks!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Mike: I would want both guys in a perfect world.

  2. Shake N Bacon says:
    (link)

    Emmet Otter’s Jug Band Christmas…I grew up watching that sh!t! Brings back memories of eating no-bake cookies and drinking hot chocolate. Then telling my sister to shut up and running after her with a plunger. Those were the days Smokey…those were the days.

    Do you think Belisle gets any chance for saves if Betancourt goes down for longer? I should probably go to Brothers’ player page to see how his splits are. Since the player pages are sweeeeeet!

    That is all.

    • Shake N Bacon says:
      (link)

      There are no Righty/Lefty splits for pitchers :(

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Shake N Bacon: Indeed those were. Belisle would probably get some lok but I think they woul go Brothers, then Wilton on most occasions. Belisle is a stud set-up guy who looks better at that then closing personally.

  3. Always look forward to these posts. Oddly, was looking at Shawn Kelley this am wondering what to make of it!

    In a 14 team, redraft, 6×6 (holds) how would you rank these 6 MR options:

    Jordan Walden – Does he become the 8th inning guy once he’s healthy, given Venters and EOF’s season ending injuries.

    Mike Adams – lingering back issues scare me, but slated to throw a bullpen this weekend and might be activated early next week. Assume he gets 8th inning back?

    Santiago Casilla – any reason to hold him? Cant stay healthy and cyst growing larger!

    Neal Cotts – rising from ashes? Was lights out in AAA and posted absurd 42/5 K/BB over 23 ip. He’s in Ranger pen now…

    Al Alburqurque – has he even pitched yet in Toledo? Tigers said that they optioned him to work on command, but I keep checking box scores and can’t seem to find info. that he’s even pitched yet.

    Stephen Pryor – any update on his injury status? I know he was placed on 60 day DL, eligible to come off on June 15th, I believe. Is he still a mid-late June ETA?

    Thanks for your work here.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @EL BURRO: Thanks.

      Walden should just by his expeience. Gearrin and Avilan form a great mix with him.

      Scares me too. He will get the 8th back but for how long until he gets injured. I would seek help else where and not have to be worried.

      No on Casilla. Better options out there even as a gamble.

      Cotts is going to be the long guy there, Scheppers is the main guy there now. Do like great stories like Cotts though went through like 6 organizations before getting something significant.

      No news on Al Al, was supposed to be in Toledo. He may have been sent to ext spring training. They like sending guys with location problems to their best developmental pithing coach.

      I think it will be longer with Pryor.

        • @EL Burro:

          When would you speculate that Al Al gets called back up? 2-3 weeks?

          • Smokey

            Smokey says:
            (link)

            @EL Burro: Yea, or unless an injury to someone significant in the bullpen pccurs.

  4. JDW says:
    (link)

    What is in Shawn Kelley’s urine!??

    He never had more than a K per inning at any level previous to dropping a sick 33 Ks on the 56 batters he’s faced this year. 33 in 18.2? That’s Aroldis territory.

    Oh, “Aroldis and I Smoaked This” still one of the best team names I’ve heard.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @JDW: Yea it’s crazy, you see a 5 ERA and bypass everything else. Great team name.

  5. Frank White says:
    (link)

    What’s up brotha!!! .I got Mujica, Jim Henderson and Heath Bell in a 10 team h2h points league.. What u think??

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Frank White: in a 10 teamer I’d want better but maybe thats me. Your competing in saves I am guessing.

  6. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    My brother (age 40) has been obsessed with Emmit Otter for years. “We’re not birds, we’re a jug band.” Probably seen it 100 times.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: It’s not a classic but a kids all timer

  7. Chris says:
    (link)

    Smokey, would you give up Harvey/Joe Nathan for Kemp/Morrow? 12-team roto.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Chris: No. My ship has sailed on Morrow.

  8. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    Kelvin Herrera sent down. Louis Coleman called up.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @SteveNZ: seems like an Al Al type situation. Thanks

  9. booya says:
    (link)

    Wilson or Perkins in a league that uses sv+hlds as one category?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @booya: I’ll take Perkins, Wilson is a stud reliever in the making, but has Melancon and Tony Watson ahead of him.

  10. DonSlaughtOnslaught says:
    (link)

    Heads up from a Pirate fan–Wilson has definitely passed Watson. Wilson did set-up duties today with Melancon unavailable.

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @DonSlaughtOnslaught: Cool thanks I figured it was the case but I know Watson still sees some good burn

  11. Andrew says:
    (link)

    Do you think Street can post a sub-3 (or even 3.5) ERA ROS?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Andrew: It’s possible, I see him riht at the high end of that

  12. Ferga says:
    (link)

    FYI, the (ROS) Player Rater seems a bit jacked up in the holds cat. When I rank all pitchers with 6 x 6 holds format, Jessie Crain is worth $7 more than Clayton Kershaw.

    There also seems to be some sort of heavy emphasis on pitchers who already have a lot of holds and it is predicting basically nothing for guys like Pestano who started slow with holds.

  13. Joey Belle says:
    (link)

    I love high K relievers, like Kelley, but looking at his stats, he seems to be fond of the long ball. (explains the difference between his FIP and xFIP) Is there a chance he gives Robertson a run for closer next year?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Joey Belle: I don’t think so, if anyone will challenge Robertson it will be Mark Montgomery

  14. Future says:
    (link)

    points league and I have a ton of closers.. should I drop one for wheeler?

    Valverde
    holland
    perez
    bell
    Jim henderson

    Thanks alot, great article!

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Future: Thanks, explore a trade first

  15. Duncan says:
    (link)

    Great article. Just made a trade today. I gave Shelby Miller and received Dexter Fowler and Edward Mujica. I thought about it for a while but like the vaue I got back especially since I need saves. Razzball is da shizzzznat yo

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Duncan: Good deal

  16. Tecmoballz says:
    (link)

    is it me or does Rex Brothers sound like a black gay porn actor?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Tecmoballz: Haha right next Lex Steele

  17. Ryan says:
    (link)

    I’m in a 20 team h2h dynasty league. I was offered segura shelby miller for darvish franklin. Do I consider this trade?

    c jp arencibia
    1b prince fielder
    2b neil walker
    ss yunel Escobar
    3b miguel cabrera
    inf evan longoria
    lf michael morse
    cf norichika aoki
    rf justin upton
    of carl crawford
    util desmond jennings
    bn nick franklin
    Bn jorge soler
    bn evan gattis
    bn jurickson profar
    bn peter bourjos

    sp clayton kershaw
    sp cliff lee
    sp yu darvish
    sp daniel straily
    rp sean doolittle
    rp mat belisle
    rp Jose veras
    rp heath bell
    p mat thorton
    p Jason motte
    p joe blamton
    p Barry zito
    bn zack wheeler

    • Paul Wilson says:
      (link)

      @Ryan: I’d hold or ask for one more player. Perhaps it’s time to replace Jason Motte?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Ryan: id want Yu

  18. papasmurf says:
    (link)

    So the Tazawa era is over before it even began. 0 saves during that period.

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @papasmurf: it was also 0 attempts.

  19. papasmurf says:
    (link)

    PS, the SP-eligible guy I keep pimping, Brian Matusz, has 7 holds with 19 Ks, a 2.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 18.1 IP. (4% yahoo ownership) HLDs leagues with a limited number of RP slots should definitely pick him up.

    He is in line to pick up cheap one or two out HLDs as Buck will play matchups. I love those. You can give up 2 runs and still get a HLD as long as you got one out in a “save” situation.

  20. Clint says:
    (link)

    Holds seem to be a red-headed stepchild in roto and I’ve always wondered why. I loaded up on starters and closers as is the norm in drafts and watched my ERA/WHIP shoot up the first month or so this season while saves, wins, & K’s did shoot up (along with my innings estimates for the 1400 max season). Since I dropped some starters, made a trade, and picked up guys like Doolittle & Peralta, I’ve gained SO much in those categories for me to the tune of 2nd place. So why the hold hatred when it appears we need them to stabilize ERA/WHIP?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Clint: You’re preaching to the choir, they are always like the bastard child of the bullpen

  21. Jesse says:
    (link)

    I’m in a 11 team roto league and I am desperately trying to build up some saves.

    I have Street, Betancourt, Gregg, and Veras.

    First place team decided to throw in the towel for saves (stupid move if you ask me since he is still in the hunt) and dropped Wilhelmsen, Frieri and Perez.

    Obviously Wilhelmsen is the guy to claim but if someone else gets him due to higher waiver priority who should I go for? There’s also Peralta on the wire…

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @Jesse: put waiver in for all 3 Wilhelmsen, Gregg and then Veras in that order. Good Luck

  22. joeg414 says:
    (link)

    Henderson down ; K-Rod gets Save over Axford. Whata think?

    • Smokey

      Smokey says:
      (link)

      @joeg414: Seemed like it last night anyways, prolly wil be a committee until someone jumps out to take it if he Henderson is Dl’ed

  23. SteveNZ says:
    (link)

    Having all sorts of trouble finding reliable relievers with SP eligibility. Thought Hochevar might be good but he’s been garbage too.

    I’m probably going to stick with Duensing (which tells you how unreliable the SP relievers are). Which one do you take out of:

    Mazzaro
    Cecil
    Blackley
    Hunter

    Thanks!

    • SteveNZ says:
      (link)

      @SteveNZ: Sorry – looking for Holds here…

Comments are closed.