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This post might only be for those in the back of the room who aren’t paying attention to things like BABIP.  It’s all right with me.  I ain’t mad at cha.  In fact, it makes my job easier.  Most people are gonna know going into 2011 that Aaron Hill was crazy unlucky last year.  Like, for reals.  His BABIP was .196, eighty-eight points off his career BABIP of .288.  That career BABIP is also factoring in his Murphy Law-esque 2010, before that it was above .300.  But as Ernest Hemingway once said, “You make your own luck.”  I’m guessing he said that before he killed himself.  Or in Hill’s case, you make your own unlucky.  His fly balls went through the roof (not literally, I don’t think) with the percentage going from 41% to 54.2%.  His line drives went from 19.6% to 10.6%.  When you hit more fly balls, more fielders catch the ball.  Hit more line drives and you get more hits.  See how that could affect your average?  Okay, I know too many numbers make your eyes heavy so I’ll get to the nuts.  What can we expect of Aaron Hill in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a fantasy sleeper?

He just needs to revert — in the smallest of possible ways — to his old shizz.  Maybe he changed his swing last year to hit more fly balls because he liked how that felt in 2009.  “Hey, Ma, I no longer have to take my dates to see a Drew Barrymore movie because these homers are Spanish Fly for the ladies.  Oh, and say hi to Pops for me!”  That’s what Hill said on the phone last year.  So in 2011 he goes back to how he was swinging prior.  Swinging in all senses of the word.  Or maybe he keeps trying to hit everything out of the park.  Whatever.  Honestly, don’t think it matters.  It would be nearly impossible for him to duplicate the league’s lowest BABIP.  I can’t imagine he hits below .260 in 2011.  After that the only real concern is his health and, at 2nd base, you can deal with his occasional DL stint.  I could see him giving you a line of 80/25/85/.275/5, which makes him a solid 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper.

  1. DrEasy says:
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    I’m assuming you are referring to the Dwayne Murphy law, which stipulates that all Jays players he coaches should hit for the fences or die trying. Other famous victim: Adam Lind. (NB: the approach worked beautifully for Buck, Alex Gonzalez and of course Bautista. But it just might not fit every player.)

  2. Giant JJ says:
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    It’s really nice that you are kicking out fantasy articles at this time of year. I’m starving for study material. This is the very best fantasy baseball site on the Internet.

  3. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Giant JJ: Amen. You are damn right.

    Hemingway also was quoted saying: “A man’s got to take a lot of punishment to write a really funny book.” Which means that I should compose a hilarious book about the Mets. As the Phillies assemble the best starting four since the Braves of Maddux et al, the Mets are salivating over Jeff Francis and Chris-Pee Young. Grey, please don’t write a post about either, it would just increase my angina and biliousness.

    If you ever get a chance, visit Hemingway’s estate. Surrounded by Polydactyls, you come to the back where you see what looks like an ordinary built in swimming pool. It was apparently built by one of his wives as a surprise for him while he was traipsing overseas. On one side of the pool is a nickle embedded in concrete. When I asked what that meant, the guide told me that the price of the pool was extraordinary, being that it was dug into sheer coral. Hemingway was reputed to have said, “She spent my last nickel to build this damn pool.” At any rate, Earnest spent a great deal more time in the GREEN PARROT engaging in debauchery then he did swimming in his million dollar pool.

  4. Tony says:
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    @Giant JJ: this site is the best thing out here, welcome… if you stick around there’s a “small” commentators league in the spring…. lol

  5. sean says:
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    @DrEasy: The Toronto roster looks more like a mine field than a gold mine for fantasy baseballers: Bautista, Hill, Lind, Wells, Yunel, Rajai

  6. Tony says:
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    @sean: bautista yes, but Hill, Lind and Snider should be better/progress….

  7. Jake in Columbus says:
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    @Grey: Six fingered & toed pitcher, extra-digit-ed cats at the estate. Had heard about the cats before and remembered Alfonseca, so found it a humorous baseball connection. If I have to explain it, the humor is probably lacking. Polydactyly probably isn’t funny to everyone who has it either.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jake in Columbus: Ah, that is funny. Didn’t read the about the cats that thoroughly.

  9. The Vaporizers says:
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    Whats up Grey! Hope you’ve been having fun this offseason. Last year I was Long Bong Hitters, but I’m sticking with my ffb screenname to stay consistent

    Last year was the first year that I found your site and I fell in love with it.

    I have never done a dynasty or keeper league before. I just got into an open spot in $115 12 team dynasty keeper league.

    Here is basically my scenario. We get 6 keepers and 1 A keeper and 1 B keeper. They are based upon number of AB’s or IP’d. And A is pretty much a rookie last year, and a B is a rookie from two years ago. And also up to 8 minor league keepers

    My 6 keepers would be:
    Matt Holliday
    Dustin Pedroia
    Shane Victorino (the worst of the bunch)
    Jon Lester
    Justin Verlander
    Dan Haren

    And I get the first pick in the draft, and drew the number 1 pick for the minor league draft too (BRYCE HARPER!!!!)

    I don’t have any good eligible A’s or B’s right now.

    A team keeps offering me Jayson Werth and Tommy Hanson (B keeper) along with Randall Delgado or so for Holliday. This other team also has Desmond Jennings who he said is available for the right price. We can trade draft picks, and he is really interested in them, but I will not trade the first pick in either draft.

    I guess one of my questions in this mess is how much higher ranked do you have Holliday over Werth? I don’t think Hanson is enough to make up for it. However, if I include like a 4th round pick, perhaps I get get Jennings thrown in there? What do you think is a fair price on Jennings? Is trading Holliday for that bunch something you’d look to do in this situation?

    ***********ALSO, I’d be interested in feedback from anyone else too. Both my FFB teams are in the semi’s, but since getting my roster, I have just been thinking about FBB***************

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Vaporizers: Thanks for the kind words! Holliday’s way above Werth. Hanson is not enough. If you get Jennings then it changes things. I’d take Werth, Hanson and Jennings for Holliday.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ****About to do a mock draft with Eric Karabell. Hehe******

  12. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: Can’t wait to see that mock!

  13. Jake says:
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    @Grey:

    or @anyone:

    does razzball have a mobile phone friendly option to view the site? can’t load the full, normal site otherwise, and i’d really like to be able read articles/comments on the go.

  14. Terrence Mann says:
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    My guesses at likely players to be on Grey’s roster:

    Aaron Hill (unless he gets Utley early), Morrow, Quentin, Chacin, Hudson, Kuroda, Pena, Alvarez, Ethier, Gio

  15. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jake: I look at Razzball on my iPhone and can see it.

    @Terrence Mann: Some nice names there.

  16. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: I’m sure I’m missing a couple guys you have your eyes on….when can we expect you to post this mock?

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: I might post in the comments… It’s for a magazine so I can’t put it on the site as a post.

  18. Tony says:
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    @Grey: grey you’re so cool, i hope i can grow up and be like you haha….. good luck

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    ***Wright and Howard with the first two picks.

  20. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: ESPN or a different mag?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Rotowire… Which I didn’t even know had a magazine.

  22. Terrence Mann says:
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    OF in round three….here it comes…..

  23. Terrence Mann says:
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    Not shocking.

  24. Terrence Mann says:
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    Rd 4 McCutchen, Jupside, Ethier

    Probably in that order

  25. Terrence Mann says:
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    You pick 11th?

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: I do pick 11th. I’d go Upton, McCutchen, Ethier… But I went Andrus then Lester. Didn’t get an OF until the 6th round and there was nothing there so went with Rasmus. Scary how shallow OF is.

  27. Terrence Mann says:
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    5/6 I was gonna guess Donkey if he was there, then your first SP – Verlander, Greinke, or maybe Cain. Donkey must have been gone. You take another SP in 5? Morneau or Konerko?

  28. Terrence Mann says:
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    7/8 Delmon Young, Stanton, Vlad. 2 of those 3

  29. Terrence Mann says:
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    Maybe Gallardo in 5 if he fell

  30. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Grey: I like me some Colby.

  31. Terrence Mann says:
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    Add Krispie to the 7/8 list. 9/10 PacMan or Quentin and probably Bell or Feliz.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: I had Howard… Didn’t take a 1st baseman. I told you my 5th pick already.

    @Smokey: I do too, but it’s a steep price to pay.

  33. Terrence Mann says:
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    11/12 is a good place for Grey starters. Buchholz if he’s there. Maybe Morrow or Romero. Dirty Sanchez. A closer if he hasn’t grabbed one yet.

  34. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Grey: I do agree that OF is shallow i’m all for the belief you load up on 1B/CI early fill in OF with 15/20 certainty and pray the DL fairy don’t bite.

  35. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: @Grey: You draft CI early like Smokey did last night. Taking Pena in 11/12 wouldn’t surprise me.

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Smokey: Yeah, agreed.

    @Terrence Mann: It’s a 14 team league… Pena’s been gone for rounds already.

  37. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    what pick was uggla taken ?

  38. Terrence Mann says:
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    14 teams? That changes things. You got Howard 15th? Nice.

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Went right after Kinsler.

    @Terrence Mann: Took Neftali in the 10th round.

  40. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: You think Bucholz maintains anywheres close to 2010’s 2.33 Era? Just curious.

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Grey: Wait, no. I’m picking 11th. Howard was the 17th pick.

  42. Terrence Mann says:
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    7/8 you got Krispie, Stanton, Delmon, Quentin, Pacman, Vlad probably in that order

  43. Steve says:
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    Need a hangover cure. Anyone?

    Worst one for years.

  44. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: 17th? Jeebus. You drafting against the whole ESPN staff?

  45. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Smokey: No. Not in that division. I got on the Buchholz wagon from Grey. Helped me when my league when Garza and Hughes went to shit.

  46. Steve says:
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    @Grey: That would make it three days running. Actually I’m probably still drunk now.

  47. Terrence Mann says:
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    I need to know who you grabbed in 7/8 to make further predictions. So far I’m sucking like Broxton down the stretch.

  48. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Steve: Eggs anything with protein it absorbs into your body faster than anything.

  49. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: ok cool, i think he regresses big time, but thas just me his xFIP was almost double his Era.

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Smoke some weed.

    @Terrence Mann:

    Soto (it’s a 2 catcher league)
    Lind
    Vazquez
    Feliz
    Quentin
    Colby Lewis

  51. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Smokey: I know Grey likes him still but don’t know how he ranks in relation to Marcum, Morrow, Romero, Sanchez. Wandy above all those guys. Maybe he took Wandy in 7/8

  52. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: Forgot you like Vasquez again. Nice on getting Quentin that late.

    13/14 is where you get strong. Chacin, Hudson, Kuroda, Kimbrel, Zambrano, Gio, Bumgarner.

    I KNOW you took at least one of those guys in 13/14

  53. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Grey: @Steve: That works too, i got 5 on it…

  54. Steve says:
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    @Grey: @Smokey: Heh – not really my go, though. Think I’ll go look for a bacon and egg sandwich and some coffee.

    Don’t think much work will get done today…

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Vicodin… Kidding. Eat something greasy.

  56. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Grey: What the hell are you doing about the rest of your outfield? Snider? Dominic Brown? I know your 5th guy will be sagnof.

  57. Terrence Mann says:
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    15/16 is the best upside power outfielder you can find and another starter off my 13/14 list if there’s anyone left. If all those pitchers are gone, I’m guessing Garcia, Santana, or a Hodgepadre.

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: They’re long gone. I need two more. Going there after my next SP.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Right now, Cueto or dlR are next on my queue.

  60. Terrence Mann says:
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    Surprised you took Kuroda over Yaphet Cueto, I guess.

    There’s gotta be someone you can plug in at #4 OF. Guessing Kubel and Cuddyer gone. Beltran maybe. Robot probably gone. Maybe you go with two sagnofs in your outfield. Gotta be pretty damn thin.

  61. Terrence Mann says:
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    Alex Gordon maybe? I mean, Good Lord. I wouldn’t want him at #4 OF but at least he has power upside.

  62. Terrence Mann says:
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    I’m calling your CI as Kotchman or Branyan and a foxhole prayer.

  63. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Grey: Cody Ross, Boesch Austin Jax types

  64. The Vaporizers says:
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    Hey Grey, after seeing the counter offers, I thought I’d never be able to make this trade go down. So we emailed back and forth over our opinions of the players and offers and this is what he just proposed. I think I am going to pull the trigger, but of course, wanted your advice since this is a big move in a big league that I just got in a matter of days ago.

    Werth/Hanson/Jennings for Holliday and 3rd round pick (25)

    Its a keep 6, so that is more like a 9th round pick for a regular draft. I think its a move I got to make. I know I wouldn’t be getting a future keeper with that 3rd round pick and I’m confidant that the knowledge you will bestow on me will have me picking up gems in the later rounds.

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Too Cueto and Logan Morrison. Andres Torres and SAGNOF are left in the OF.

  66. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Grey: Took not too.

  67. Black Beard says:
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    6×5(+OPS), keeper league. Felix and M. Young for Werth and Howard?

  68. Terrence Mann says:
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    Surprised Morrison was still there. After looking at our mock last night and your draft today, I think it’s pretty clear that waiting on SP is the way to go. Even more than usual. 1B and 3B is a bit deeper than usual. You found out today and guys were commenting in our draft last night that OF is super shallow. I know your motive has always been 1B, 3B, and OF in the first three rounds unless a guy like Kinsler drops. But I’m thinking that maybe it’s better to wait on 3B and get a guy like Alvarez or wait a bit on 1B and get a guy like Konerko or Morneau. Almost HAVE to take an OF in the first three rounds, even if you grab a guy like Kinsler or Reyes. And I don’t think I’ll be taking a pitcher in the first ten rounds. You got stuck with Torres as your 4th OF when maybe it would have been better to grab another hitter where you took Haren. I’ll sacrifice Haren (or in my case Cain in the 6th last night) for another bat and then have faith in my ability to grab pitchers like Kuroda, Gio, Cueto later. The dropoff in power is just too much to take a pitcher that early.

    Just my early thoughts on approaching drafts next year.

  69. The Vaporizers says:
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    Thanks for the help Grey. Going into this league the two guys I wanted most for the long term future, I have – Desmond Jennings and Bryce Harper.

    I will take a little lump in my batting stats, but with Lester, Verlander, Haren, Hanson at the front of the rotation, I like my odds in winning the pitching stats for the most part! I’ll look to draft Morrow as well. It will be hard to beat my team in K’s!

  70. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Thanks Grey, one more, same league: Kinsler for Lincecum?

  71. Steve says:
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    @Grey: How does 1B seem? If memory serves, you didn’t want to leave the first two rounds without one this year.

    Same deal in ’11?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: 1st base isn’t as bad. Still want a top one, but you can go a little deeper to get one.

  73. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    I definitely agree that it’s a scary thing that the OF is so shallow. It seems like a bunch of 15 HR, 60 RBI guys are just scattered. Like I said last night in the mock, rounds 7-14 more or less are pretty rough.

    Thank god that I’m keeping CarGo in the 13th for my H2H league next year. I’m planting on supplementing him with perhaps Crawford, Nelson Cruz, or Adam Dunn in round 3.

    Anyways, here are the results from my Razzball mock Grey.

    C Michael Napoli R11
    1B Ryan Howard R2
    1B Aubrey Huff R9
    1B Gaby Sanchez R18
    2B Dan Uggla R3
    SS Elvis Andrus R4
    SS Danny Espinosa R19
    3B David Wright R1
    OF Jacoby Ellsbury R5
    OF Torii Hunter R7
    OF Delmon Young R8
    OF Nick Swisher R14
    OF Desmond Jennings R17
    SP Zack Greinke R6
    SP Josh Beckett R12
    SP Colby Lewis R13
    SP C.J. Wilson R15
    SP Jeremy Hellickson R16
    RP Neftali Feliz R10
    RP Kevin Gregg R20
    RP Tyler Clippard R21
    RP Chris Sale R22

    I know. I have a better chance at playing russian roulette and winning than trusting my SP. I seriously don’t know how I managed to make them all AL. I was also banking on Greinke landing on an NL team.

    Couple of questions: Tabata or Jennings? You think Sale will be the closer for the Indians?

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Tabata… Sale’s on the White Sox. Thornton would be my favorite. Your SPs are terrible. Your RPs aren’t much better. Your OF looks iffy too. Team’s not my favorite.

  75. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    If anyone cares, I broke down yesterday’s mock by position. Of course, some of us weren’t well-prepared (Ludwick 97th? Really?) so things may be a bit skewed.

    Might help in preparing for the next one.

    http://writer.zoho.com/public/vinreich/mock11

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @VinWins: Someone took Tulo third?

  77. VinWins

    VinWins says:
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    Felt SS had a big dropoff after top 2, I think.

  78. mic says:
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    yeah 3B is scary, you don’t know what you’re going to get after zimmerman… i’m just waiting for michael young to show his age… youk wound be nice if you could pick up a decent 1b along with him…

  79. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mic: Yeah, it’s a mess.

  80. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, I got to a point in the draft, (round 8) where 3B just was crap, so I took Reynolds.

    I had Donkey and Mini-Donkey. I thought about drafting MMD, but he got autopicked before I could.

  81. GopherDay says:
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    @GopherDay: Yes, round “Sunglasses”

  82. mic says:
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    @VinWins: thanks for that… ill be more prepared for the next one…

  83. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GopherDay: Ha

    @royce!: Great snag by the Padres. Think their offense concerns are now taken care of.

  84. Steve says:
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    @royce!: @Grey: If he gets playing time, SAGNOF?

    Grey – how did the draft go? Any other trends emerging beyond the paucity at 3B?

    Still feel like shit, BTW.

  85. royce! says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, I would say that if he lands a full-time gig at 2B, he could provide some nice SAGNOF at a shallow position (2B is still shallow, right?). Hopefully SD will be really aggressive at stealing in 2011. It’ll at least add some excitement to the games.

    I really picked the wrong year to become a season ticket holder…

  86. royce! says:
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    @Steve: I always find that exercise really helps with a hangover, but only after the exercise. During the exercise life is terrible.

  87. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: You’ll be all right. Just lay off the sauce for a day or two. OF is shallow. MI is shallow. There’s no hitting anywhere!

  88. mic says:
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    @steve @royce!: true you got to get the toxins out how some way… that why throwing up makes you feel better… if you can, hit the steam room/ sauna…

  89. Terrence Mann says:
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    @Steve: Maybe you wanna drink yourself down. Don’t drink as much as you did yesterday. Drink half that. You won’t feel miserable and you won’t feel so horrible tomorrow. Make sure you eat good hangover food. Meat, potatoes. Not so much that you get sick.

    Just my $.02

  90. Steve says:
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    @Terrence Mann: Or perhaps top myself up?

    Seriously, I like your suggestion. I’ll just have two mojitos and one bottle of wine today then.

  91. Elijah says:
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    @Steve:

    Sublingual Liquid Vitamin B-Complex, works like magic.

  92. Eddy says:
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    Pretty funny how from a fantasy perspective (at least this early into next season) the year 2011 is the turning out to be the year of the pitcher instead of 2010.

    So much pitching, so little offense.

    @Grey:
    How’s Rudy doing Grey? Haven’t heard from him in a while!

  93. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: He’s good, was talking today about the mock draft.

  94. Howard says:
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    @Grey How would you rank em in a keeper league: Heyward, Dread Pirate, JUpside?

  95. Mike from Jersey says:
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    Hey Grey. A couple days ago i asked you a question about keepers. my 5th keeper was youk, and i only had 1 pitcher, and its a pitcher friendly points league. so i traded hanley for gallardo and hamels. hamels himself only had 100 less points than hanley, (2473 to 2380, hanley fiinished #1 ss , cole finished #22 pitcher). im wondering how did i do? i know i can easily re-draft youk round 1 or 2 because most people will still draft pitchers. i want to know what you think of the deal i did itself, and how my new keepers are: pedroia, braun ..josh johnson, gallardo, hamels.
    Also think gallardo can finally limit those walks? Jeez i thought this guy had control. if he did, he could probably add 30 innings and a lot better stats to his stats.

  96. the guy on the other side of the trade with mike from jersey says:
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    it was a three team trade. i gave up mat latos, tommy hanson, and cole hamels for troy tulowitzki… talk about alot of good young SP! i know! but i feel that i had plenty of SP.

    anyway, its a 5 player keeper league, and now i have these five guys as my keepers:

    Joey Votto
    Troy Tulowitzki
    Felix Hernandez
    Roy Oswalt
    Zack Greinke (assuming he’s dealt to a contender)

    if greinke isnt dealt, i would be keeping ryan zimmerman.

    do you think the move was a smart one?

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