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I recently took part in a 2013 fantasy baseball mock draft as part of the “Sunday Night with Tim” mock drafts hosted by Tim McLeod of RotoRob on Mock Draft Central. He holds them every Sunday night (hence the name – who says hence anymore?  Tim probably does; he’s old*. *Note added by Grey.) and it’s a good time all around so I suggest you check it out. I plan to do another one in a couple weeks. Anyway, these are 15 team mixed league drafts. How’d I do? What should I have done differently? How have your mocks gone so far this year? Some of my thoughts on this team are below:

 

Pos Name Team Pick
C A.J. Pierzynski TEX R15 P8
C Chris Iannetta ANA R21 P8
1B Joey Votto CIN R1 P8
2B Jose Altuve HOU R5 P8
SS Elvis Andrus TEX R6 P8
SS Asdrubal Cabrera CLE R7 P8
3B Kyle Seager SEA R10 P8
3B Kevin Youkilis NYY R20 P8
OF Mike Stanton MIA R2 P8
OF Jason Heyward ATL R3 P8
OF Shin-Soo Choo CIN R4 P8
OF Ichiro Suzuki NYY R11 P8
OF Wil Myers TB R13 P8
DH David Ortiz BOS R8 P8
SP Tim Lincecum SF R9 P8
SP Anibal Sanchez DET R12 P8
SP Lance Lynn STL R14 P8
SP Edwin Jackson CHC R16 P8
SP Michael Fiers MIL R17 P8
SP Felix Doubront BOS R22 P8
SP Ted Lilly LA R23 P8
RP Carlos Marmol CHC R18 P8
RP Bobby Parnell NYM R19 P8
  • I’m most proud of my first three picks. I’d be ecstatic to start off my team with Joey Votto, Giancarlo Stanton, and Jason Heyward. I think Stanton fell to me at pick 23 because of concerns about his lack of a supporting cast. It bothers me slightly, but I’m inclined to think that talented hitters will more or less produce their numbers no matter who hits before or after them. As for Heyward, I think he’s a steal at pick 38 and believe he’ll have his best season yet in 2013.
  • Did I reach for Choo? Pick 53 felt early, but I felt myself gravitating towards him over the remaining outfielders. Gotta love the move to the Reds, but maybe I should’ve let my fear of Dusty hold me back.
  • I could have waited longer on middle infield. I got ahead of myself with Altuve and took him earlier than I wanted to after looking at the remaining second base names. Although I like him, I probably could have better filled a different area instead of drafting Asdrubal for my middle infield slot. I was partly disgusted at the remaining MI options and somewhat curious to see who others would draft for their MI.
  • On the other hand, I received several compliments for snagging Andrus in the sixth round at pick 83. I don’t normally draft him, but I couldn’t help it after still seeing him on the board. He’s locked in as a great second tier shortstop.
  • I basically punted top pitching, but wish I had grabbed a pitcher a round or two earlier than Lincecum. I saw a few great pitchers still on the board and figured I had time, but they were snatched up before I knew it. Was Lincecum a panic pick? Not exactly. I don’t know how he’ll perform next year, but I don’t mind gambling at pick 128 in the draft. Although I’ll admit that I wouldn’t have taken that gamble if I had landed a top pitcher.
  • I would gladly take most of my pitchers in the same spot in future drafts and bet I’ll end up consistently drafting some of these guys: Anibal Sanchez, Lance Lynn, Edwin Jackson, and Michael Fiers. If I could get an ace or two to go along with a few of these guys, I’d be very happy with my rotation.
  • Just to show you that I practice what I preach, I drafted some guys that I’ve recently written about, like David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. I was thrilled to get them where I did.
  • Did I really just draft Ichiro? I didn’t expect to be drafting him, but consider him a solid grab in that spot. He performed well on the Yankees last year and I expect Yankee Stadium to help him stave off old age for one more season.
  • My closers are iffy, but SAGNOF!
  • Overall, I believe this team is competitive in a 15 team league. I really like my hitting and view it as a good blend of power, speed, and batting average. Next time, I’ll probably grab a top pitcher early instead of a middle infielder.

From Around The Web

  1. costaricanchata says:
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    i think you lost this draft with your picks 5 through 11 .

    • Ned Shakeshaft says:
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      @costaricanchata:

      Yeah, unfortunately I agree, though I might even expand that to 4-12. I realize that a 15-teamer is tough, but there’s not enough power and counting stats, and a lot of risk. I can’t see taking two SS’s that early.

      And while I can understand taking 1 pitcher in the first 11 picks but I wouldn’t hang my hopes on Timmy, and following him up with Sanchez and Lynn makes it even more dicey.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Ned Shakeshaft: Yeah, the one thing I plan to change in the future is drafting an ace early instead of an MI. Do you suggest other changes or is it more that you’re down on some of the guys I went with? I’m curious to hear so I can improve my results next time…

        • Ned Shakeshaft says:
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          @Tom Jacks:

          Sure bud, glad to offer my 2 cents…

          It’s tough when we can’t see the other teams’ picks ie. (what was available when you made yours), and I (like most, I imagine) have done fewer 15-team leagues than 12-teamers. But here goes:

          First of all, Votto/Stanton/Heyward — not sure I could write a better opening act than that.

          4: Choo — this is a case where I agree with your theory but you just like the guy more than I do. I have him at about #80, I’ve seen his ADP around #65, you took him with the #53. I don’t have concrete reasons to dislike him, I don’t like guys trying to play positions they’re not equipped for and I see him as a bit fragile.

          5-6: Altuve/Andrus — I think those 2 guys back to back sacrifices too much power this early (or pitching, as you’ve indicated as another alternative). I could see taking one, but I would prefer to get my speed later.

          7: Asdrubal — Don’t mind this pick in itself, just in light of the last 2. Rather grab a guy with more stats at OF here, or your first pitcher.

          8: Ortiz — No issue with that pick.

          9: Timmay — A lot of faith to put in a guy who didn’t even end the year as a starter. I am hopeful of a bounceback but it’s risky.

          10: Seager — A bit of a reach? Depends who was available at 3B, I guess. Maybe you thought you had to address that position at this point. He could certainly work out well if he takes another step, but I’m just not sure how different he is from Youk, who came 10 rounds later.

          11: Ichiro — Doubt he has another .300 season in him without luck, so I’m not sure what he brings to the table aside from R and SB, in which you’re already rich at this point.

          12: Anibal — Man, this guy was bad in the 2nd half. Good team, not horrible value here but I’d feel better about it if you had more than just Timmay so far.

          13: Myers — eh, tough betting that 4-5 months of this guy is better than 6 months of someone else. But you’re near replacement-level at this point and assuming you can roster a hot schmotato for a while then WTF.

          Hope there’s something useful in there for you. Take it with a grain of salt, then tequila, then lemon. Cheers!

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
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            @Ned Shakeshaft: Thanks! Very helpful. I always like getting another perspective, especially in that kind of detail. I pretty much had the same thoughts on most of those guys, but I like your take on Choo and Myers.

            I agree that the rotation would look a lot better with someone better than Lincecum and I’ll try for that next time. Also, I’ll try not to binge on middle infielders haha.

            With Seager, I like him but felt I had to take him since there was a run on remaining 3Bs from what I remember. I was surprised that Youk lasted that long though. I’m somewhat optimistic on Ichiro due to the ballpark change, but mostly took him because so many outfielders were already taken and the remaining options weren’t enticing.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @costaricanchata: So which areas would you have drafted for those picks?

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @Tom Jacks:

        agree with most of what Ned said , and was mildly amused that i didn’t have to do all that typing .
        am also not big on choo this year .

        i think your biggest problem is that you bought into Tim McLeod’s “grab MI’s early” kool-aid .
        let Tim do his “thing” , and if he can convince others in the league to follow suit , that would be fine by me . i’d be still looking for HR’s and RBI’s at that stage of the draft .
        i just don’t see that big of a value drop from asdrubal to aybar this year , and am assuming that you can get aybar 10 rounds later .

        as much as i’m looking for power #’s , ortis and his achillles worries me …. aka ryan howard II .
        chris davis strikes out a helleva lot more often but he’s less of an injury risk , and can also be had much later in the draft .
        again , these are just my personal biases , and i am , by no means , an expert .

        yep …. you need a couple of 180 – 200 K SP’s , and I think you HAVE to grab one before the 11th or 12th round .

        also , is ichiro the speed demon that you want in that yankees OF ?
        i suppose a lot of it depends on who bats where in their line-up .

        my biggest criticism of what Ned had to say is ==> lime , not lemon .

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @costaricanchata: Haha, fair enough. Good point on Aybar. I still like Ortiz, especially since he won’t have to play the field, but Chris Davis is probably good value for how late he’s going. We’ll see with Ichiro, hopefully he bats towards the top of the lineup.

  2. james d says:
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    My first reaction to r5-r11 was that it was a collection of unsexy producers. Seager/Ortiz especially – useful but boring.

    I’m used to 12 man stuff so I also recoil at Ichiro in a “why bother rostering a low upside OF3″ way, but I suspect 15 man changes things.

    I also agree on Altuve shoulda been a sp. doesn’t seem much difference between 2b 5 and 2b 11 or so; no need to be on the front end of that imo (exception: if you’re a true blue kipnis believer). What SP were available?

    I have huge man love for Cespedes so I’d be interested to hear (1) where he went and (2) how he compares to Heyward and Choo in your mind. I’d like take Cespedes over either.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @james d: Haha Ortiz is definitely one of the most boring picks out there… As for 15 team leagues, I think Ichiro is solid because 75-90 outfielders ended up being picked (5 OFs and Utility). After the first 50 or so outfielders, it starts to get pretty ugly, and that’s why I tried to grab outfielders early.

      Yeah, I plan to wait more on 2B/SS next time. I don’t especially love Kipnis, but I’d take him if he fell a bit (which he probably won’t). In the seventh round pitchers like CC, Cueto, Scherzer, Latos, and Zimmermann were available, so I wrongfully assumed that one of them would last til the ninth round.

      I like Heyward better than Cespedes, but Cespedes better than Choo. I was considering taking Cespedes, but he went at pick 49, before I picked Choo at pick 53. I was eyeing both A-Gon and Cespedes in the fourth round, but they both were picked before my turn, so I went with Choo.

      • james d says:
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        @Tom Jacks:
        Maybe I’m just ignorant on Heyward, but I see him and Cespedes as having similar talent profiles with both injury risks.

        Heyward’s injuries are back shizz which seems recurring. Cespedes were all different little nicks, which we’ve only seen the one year so it could be just bad luck.
        Both look like they could .280+/28hr+/93+/93+/22sb+ on the upper end, so similar upside (note: basically McCutchen). Both could sorta fall apart, so similar downside.

        All I see is age as a plus for Heyward, which I don’t see as big enough to overcome Cespedes’s lesser injury concerns.

        What am I missing?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @james d: You’ve nailed the argument, it’s just that we value those things differently. I think the age is a significant difference since Heyward is almost four years younger. The age suggests that Cespedes is more likely to have shown his best, whereas Heyward should have upside remaining. So I think that line you projected is the high end for Cespedes, but believe that Heyward could have even more power than that.

          Maybe I’m being too kind to Heyward, but I’m not holding the injuries against him that much since he stayed healthy last year. Still, I do like Cespedes quite a bit, just not as much as Heyward. Also, good comp with McCutchen – I didn’t think of either like that, but they’re all reasonably close.

  3. james d says:
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    I also like the “punt 3b” concept quite a bit for this year. The position seems deep in a crazy way – lots of very cheap upside. So props to you for that.

    Again, though, unsure of how that would transfer to a 15 man league. If Youk breaks or is bad what’s the top wire option?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @james d: Thanks! There seems to be a ton of middling third basemen after the first few. I think Plouffe and Keppinger were the top 3B not drafted.

  4. adam says:
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    I have been in two very similar drafts where one mgr will grab a ton of great sp’s and fill the offense with speed guys…. do you think this is a good strategy or is a well rounded team a better idea

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @adam: Yeah, I’ve seen that strategy as well. I’d prefer to be more well rounded because I never like punting a category. I’ve also seen the SP/speed strategy backfire if one or two of their aces get injured. Or is some of their speed guys play towards the back of their lineup, which costs them the runs they were counting on.

    • Stooler says:
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      @adam:
      I’m curious about the sane thing.
      Quality offense first, many quality pitchers next then Speed infielders and finally the catcher. A middling closer somewhere in the 13-17 rounds and another late.
      Thoughts

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Stooler: That sounds like a good strategy.

  5. Tony says:
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    How have mocks been so far? I use to be mocking in December, but half the time the ranks change so much and the drafters do as well its just not worth my time…..

    Plus MDC’s ranks aren’t going to be what ESPN or YAHOO’s are the two main places i play.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Tony: I agree that early on can be crazy because the rankings don’t make sense and the other mock drafters aren’t that active. That’s why I liked Tim’s mock draft since it consisted of a few “experts” and other fantasy baseball die-hards, so there weren’t a lot of computers automatically selecting from mediocre rankings. The guys I was with were generally aware of other rankings, so that helped to keep any player from falling much beyond where they should and kept the draft as realistic as it can be at this point.

  6. Random Collmenter says:
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    Keeper league “would you rather”:

    Beltre in the 6th rd
    Cano in the 3rd

    ????

    Thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Random Collmenter: I’d go with Cano there. Beltre in the 6th round is nice, but I think there’s almost no risk with Cano providing first round value. Also, since it’s a keeper league, I’d much rather have Cano long-term than Beltre, even with a higher price tag.

  7. costaricanchata says:
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    Tim sometimes plays in Ivar’s (planet 10) mocks , hosted by Fantasy Alarm on thursday nights .
    there was an open spot last week , as a heads up .
    some other experts , as well , from time to time , but all are pretty much what you would call “die-hards” .
    the 1st one was a 15 teamer , and the 2nd was a 12 .

  8. cubfever7 says:
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    I have no problem with where you took Choo. I see him having his best season ever at Great American bandbox. Plus he’s finally on a big time team. The only thing we’ll have to watch is how he handles pressure. Without seeing who was taken where, I’d guess a pitcher should have been taken in either Andrus or Asdrubal’s spots though–but your offense rocks. Maybe you can trade Ichiro for a Matt Harvey type?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @cubfever7: Thanks! Yeah that makes sense. And with Choo, how good can he be? He should score a ton of runs with his OBP, and having Votto/Bruce driving him in. I think at a minimum he’s a 20/20, good batting average, and solid counting stats…

  9. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    There is no way I could seriously do a mock draft. With nothing on the line, I just naturally would do something like draft Cliff Pennington in the 3rd round.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: Haha nice. I once drafted Matt Stairs in the first round of a mock…

  10. Clifford says:
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    while it seems most people have had some issues with your draft, i guess ill be the first one to offer more of a positive outlook. I’m not gonna go thru every round, but certainly some

    1.) Votto–Love this pick. Think he’s a steal where you got him. If he doesnt get injured last year, I think hes in the conversation as a top 4 pick.

    2.) Stanton–Im not quite as high on him as others, but at 23, how can you pass up 50HR potential?…you cant…i think hes a bit overrated as a top 12-15 player, mainly because I dont think he’s a .290 hitter(closer to .265-.270), he likely wont have huge run or RBI totals, and he doesnt really amass SB either. He’s also a bit of an injury risk, but i woulda taken him there too, so i cant quibble with that

    3.) Heyward—I really LOVE this pick. Honestly, im shocked he fell this far…i would consider him in the top 15 for sure…i dont see why .290-.300, 95-100 runs, 25-30+ HR, 85-95 RBI, and 25-30+ SB is outta the question…to me, hes got more upside than a guy like Cargo. If Heyward had even been average his 2nd year in the league, we would be talking about him as a top 10 pick this year with top 5 upside.

    4.) Choo–i have no problem with this pick quite frankly…should be hitting lead-off ahead of Phillips, Votto, Bruce, and Frazier…he’s got enough power to hit 20+ HR, and he could very easily score 100+ runs with 20-25+ SB….my only concern with him is that he cant play CF(which im not sure he can), and sometime in late July/early August, the Reds call-up Billy Hamilton, and move Choo into a platoon with Ludwick in LF. Not likely to happen, but could happen for sure. Most of the metrics suggest Choo isnt going to be good at all in CF

    5.) Altuve/Andrus/Asdrubal–i like these 3 picks as well…i think all 3 are underrated…i mean with Stanton, Votto, Heyward, and Choo, i think you can assume a MINNIMUM of 110-115 HR with the potential to get as high as 135-140. I thought you did a great job of rounding out that power with high average/runs/SB guys at weak positions…trust me, you really dont want to count on Erik Aybar as your everyday SS in a deep league like this…you will drive yourself crazy trying to make a trade. The MI spots are so so weak this year.

    6.) I dont mind the Seager pick at all. I think its actually a little late for him. Im not sure that the general fantasy public really knows how good Seager was last year. As a rookie, he totaled 594 ABs, hitting .259 with 62 runs, 35 2B, 20 HR, 86 RBI, and 13 SB….with the fences moving in at Saefco and an improved lineup, i dont think its a stretch to say that he could hit .265-.270 with 75-80 runs, 25+ HR, 85-95 RBI, and 15+ SB…thats pretty good value at that pick.

    7.) As for the pithing side of things…the only thing i disliked about the draft was the selection of Lincecum…i will not be drafting him in any of my leagues…i just think theres way too much uncertainty with him….and given the fact that he was absolutely crushed for the majority of the year last year, coupled with a pretty drastic spike in his BB/9 rate, and i just dont like him as a bounceback candidate…id almost rather a guy like ricky romero…that said, i really like the rest of you staff…i think Lynn was an absolute steal where you got him, assuming he can lock up a spot in the rotation…EJax is always underrated every year…etc, etc

    8.) In one of the comments above, it stated that Anibal Sanchez was horrible in the 2nd half last year…well, im not sure what that guy was looking at….prior to the ASB last year, Anibal was 4-6 with 4.12 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 95 Ks in 107 IP….after the break, he was 5-7 with 3.55 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 72 Ks in 88.2 IP…and he dominated in his 3 postseason starts, going 1-2 with 1.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 18 Ks in 20.1 IP…dont know how that would equate to him being awful in the 2nd half last year, but hey, what do i know

    9.) My last point is this….Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson, Mike Minor, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Dan Haren, Ross Detweiler, Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Aroldis Chapman, Homer Bailey, Adam Wainwright, Chirs Carpenter, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, Yovani Gallardo, Mike Fiers, Edwin Jackson, Matt Garza, Jeff Smard., AJ Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett, Ian Kennedy, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, Wade Miley, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong, Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Lester, Ryan Dempster, Clay Buchholz, Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow, Ricky Romero, Mark Buehrle, RA Dickey, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Anibal Sanchez, Doug Fister, Chris Sale, Jake Peavy, Trevor Bauer, James Shields, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Yu Darvish, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison, Felix Hernandez, Iwakuma, Jered Weaver, CJ Wilson, Jason Vargas, Tommy Hanson, Jarrod Parker, Dan Straily, Brett Anderson, AJ Girffin and Tommy Milone….thats 82 total SP that i would feel comfortable drafting in 15-team leagues(and really 12-teamers for that matter)…and that was just off the top of my head, im sure i missed several….point being is that SP is insanely deep this year again, and ive seen Mock Drafts amongst experts where the first SP doesnt come off the board until the 3rd or 4th round, and guys like CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are barely cracking the top 100. Its all about positional scarcity in deeper leagues…2B, SS, and OF are weaker this year…C, 1B(sorta), 3B, and SP are extremely deep this year. Draft accordingly.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Clifford: Thanks a lot! I definitely appreciate it and your thoughts behind the picks. You nailed my thinking for the first four picks.

      Same with Altuve/Andrus/Asdrubal – I only realized how shallow middle infield was after looking at the guys remaining and decided to select one of them each time my pick came up. The outfielders at that time were already taking a dive, so the choice continued to be between a stud pitcher or a solid middle infielder, and MI won each time.

      I too think Seager has been terribly undervalued, likely being on the Mariners has something to do with it. Agree that the fences coming in and the M’s being aggressive this offseason can only do good things for him next year.

      Thanks for the clarification with Anibal, and that pitching list is really helpful. I completely agree with where the scarcity lies in deeper leagues. Again, I appreciate the post!

  11. EB says:
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    I like your draft a lot. In a 12 team league, let alone 15, I think it is important to get middle infielders. Altuve was very impressive last year, and Andrus is a plus player for runs and steals. Plus your first three picks have big upside.

    You should have taken Cespedes over Choo if he was still around. He is undervalued at approximately pick 55 to 65 which isnwhere I see him ranked. His second half of last year is top thirty production and with a solid team and a year of experience I think he is a great bet tomduplicate it.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @EB: Thanks a lot! Sorry for the late reply. Cespedes was actually taken just a couple picks before Choo. I was thinking about taking him over Choo, but wasn’t given the chance.

  12. philip seymour huffman says:
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    tom jacks you my friend are a tool and your team sucks…. some decent picks here and there but whoopdy do. Before you start making all kinds of excuses just ask yourself…..is this one of the best teams in the league? the answer is a resounding no. So stop explaining why you did what you did and take the advice from these guys on here and DRAFT BETTER! This squad has way too many holes and you reached too many times. CLEAN IT UP!

    Sincerely,

    fellow fantasy baseball geek

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @philip seymour huffman: I’m not making excuses. I think this team is competitive in a 15 team league. Matthew Berry, is that you?

  13. Bigb says:
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    I would have tried for a Nick Swisher instead of drafting Heyward, who is usually an overpay. Also, go for a risky pick in later rounds like a Ricky Romero or a young strikeou artist who might catch fire and be a trade piece. I did that with Pineda a couple of years ago and got back some more reliable pieces.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bigb: I still like Heyward’s chances for taking another step this season, although I was targeting Swisher, but waited too long. Not sure how I feel about Romero, but I agree that a late round gamble on pitching makes sense.

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