Fantasy Baseball Advice

This is the first in a series of posts reviewing players on the 2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot.  Here is some background on how I analyze players for the HOF:

Much like the Earth and many a good joke, the views on Hall of Fame worthiness have two poles.  The first pole is the traditional view which focuses on seasonal and career ‘baseball card’ stats like AVG/Hits/HR/RBI or Wins/ERA, factors in dominance based on MVP/Cy Young voting + reputation during one’s career, and the post-season success for that individual and their team(s).    The second pole is the sabermetric view which relies on more advanced statistics with the aim of crediting the best players based on objective criteria.

I am much, much closer to the sabermetric pole than the traditionalist pole.  My view on baseball (and life) is to question and adapt my views when presented with compelling information.  I’ve been convinced that OBP & Times on Base are superior to AVG and Hits and that the traditional view of baseball has underestimated the value of walks.  I can’t view HRs or even slugging percentage as an absolute reflection of power and look for advanced stats to adjust for era and park factors.  Runs and RBIs are clearly important – you need to score runs to win games – but it’s hard to balance these stats against lineup strength, era, park factors, etc.  The same goes for pitching:  I think ERA/WHIP needs to be adjusted per era/park factors/team defense, Wins are a questionable measure given their reliance on team strength, etc.

As advanced statistics have improved, I put less faith in MVPs/Cy Youngs/All-Star voting.  The writers (and fans for All-Star) voting for those awards over the years didn’t either have access to the advanced learnings that sabermetrics has provided and/or don’t believe it.  For instance, let’s look at the 1996 MVP voting.  Juan Gonzalez had a fantastic hitting year (.314/47/144 with a .368 OBP, below average running/defense and favorable park that led him to not even make the AL Top 10 in OPS+) but exactly how could that be considered more valuable than Ken Griffey Jr. (.303/49/140 with a .392 OBP, solid baserunning, and the most valuable defensive player in the league based on Defensive WAR) or Alex Rodriguez (.358/36/123 with a .414 OBP, positive baserunning and above-average SS defense)?  In fact, of the 21 players to get at least one AL MVP vote in 1996, Juan Gonzalez had the worst Wins Above Replacement (WAR).  In addition, there are also some years where a player wins the MVP/Cy Young by default because there really isn’t a player who warrants it and vice versa (see 1996 where Ken Griffey and Alex Rodriguez – as well as Chuck Knoblauch – were worthy MVP candidates).  Does that make their year any less MVP-worthy?

So here are the criteria/stats I’m using for my HOF analysis:

1) Career Excellence - I am measuring this by career WAR (Wins Above Replacement).  This statistic – which was developed by Sean Smith and is available for free on Baseball-Reference.com or Sean’s own BaseballProjection.com – calculates the value of a hitter’s offense/defense/running or a pitcher’s pitching vs. those of a replacement player (minor leaguer or waiver wire claim).  Many factors such as position, era, park, defense (for pitchers) are accounted for.  (Note:  there are slight differences in WAR calculations between Baseball-Reference and BaseballProjection.com – I use those from B-R unless otherwise noted.)

2) Peak Excellence – I think most traditional and sabermetric fans and voters agree that – everything equal – a player who had a dominant peak is more preferable to one who was just very good for a long period of time.  Rather than focus on awards, I’ve taken the B-R (and I assume Sean Smith) suggested breaks of 5.0+ WAR for an All-Star season and 8.0+ WAR for an MVP season.    For reference, between 1901 and 2010, there were 282 hitting seasons and 132 pitching seasons that surpassed 8.0.  That roughly 2.7 hitters and 1.2 pitchers per year which seems fair when you consider there are about 2x the hitters than pitchers who play enough to reach this total.

(Bit of trivia:  The year with the most 8.0+ WAR hitters is 2004 with 6:  Barry Bonds (12.4), Adrian ‘El Senator‘ Beltre (10.1), Albert Pujols (9.4), Scott Rolen (9.2), Jim Edmonds (8.4), and Ichiro (8.1).  The NL MVP vote went exactly in WAR order for the 5 NL’ers.  Vladamir Guerrero (7.4) beat Ichiro for AL MVP who finished 7th.   The year with the most pitchers 8.0+ was 1971 with 6:  Wilbur Wood (10.7), Fergie Jenkins (9.2), Tom Seaver (9.2), Vida Blue (8.8), Mickey Lolich (8.6), and Dave Roberts (8.5).  Vida Blue and Mickey Lolich finished above Wilbur Wood for AL Cy Young while Fergie Jenkins edged out Tom Seaver for NL.)

I’ve combined the above into one stat using the following formula:  Career WAR + 10 * MVP seasons (8.0+ WAR) + 5 * All-Star seasons (5.0-7.9 WAR).  I’ll call this ‘Peak-Adjusted WAR’ for the series of posts.  This is admittedly arbitrary but seems to do a fair job at rewarding those with high peaks vs. long careers.  Case in point:  Carlton Fisk has one more career WAR than Gary Carter (67.3 to 66.3) aided by playing close to 2 more seasons worth of games.  But Gary Carter had 8 seasons of All-Star value (most ever for a catcher amongst retired players as of 2005) while Carlton Fisk only had 4.  This adjustment puts Carter ahead of Fisk 106.3-87.3 (2nd and 3rd behind Johnny Bench).  Sandy Koufax has far less career WAR to Don Sutton (54.5 to 70.8) but his 3 MVP seasons (1963, 1965, 1966) and two All-Star seasons give him 40 extra points where Don Sutton’s 4 All-Star seasons give him 20.  Thus, Koufax scores higher 94.5 to 90.8.  (Click here for access to the spreadsheet on Google Docs).

In looking at the scores across all players, I’d say for me that a peak-adjusted WAR of 100 is a no-brainer selection, anything from 80-100 is in the consideration set (with more bias towards positions with less players who’ve reached that plateau, and anything under 80 isn’t a consideration except for relief pitchers or special cases (e.g., an untimely death, Negro-league players, a player lost peak time to serve in the war, etc.)

3) Hall of Fame Position Representativeness – While WAR takes position into account for single seasons, it cannot adjust for the fact that certain positions (notably Catcher and Middle Infield) are tougher to have long careers than other positions (notably corner OF/1B/DH).  My general POV is that if a player was in the top 10 at his position in the past 60 years (1945-2005), he warrants Hall of Fame consideration even if their stats look lower than average.

This brings me to the top player on my imaginary 2011 ballot – Jeff Bagwell.

WAR Totals:  139.9 Peak-Adjusted WAR – 79.9 career WAR + 3 MVP seasons (+30) and 6 All-Star seasons (+30)

Stats:  15 seasons, 2,314 hits, 1,517 Runs, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SBs, .297 AVG / .408 OBP / .540 SLG / 149 OPS+

162 Game Stats:  114 R /34 HR/115 RBI/15 SB

Don’t let the 449 career HRs fool you.  Based on either career WAR or my Peak-Adjusted WAR, Jeff Bagwell was the best 1st baseman post-WWII (excluding Albert Pujols) and the 4th best ever behind Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols, and Jimmie Foxx.  Now just about everyone reading this lived through the Bagwell era (as it was known by no one outside of Houston and the Bagwell extended family).  It didn’t FEEL like he was the best 1B in the past 60 years, did it?

Here are several reasons why it might not have felt that way:

1) Bagwell played his first 9 seasons (23-31) in the hitter un-friendly Astrodome. He still put up great baseball card stats (AVG/HR/RBI) but the Astrodome maybe cost him a HR championship or two.  His OPS+ (OBP + SLG, adjusted by era and park) was top 10 in the NL for 8 of his 9 Astrodome years.  His career OPS+ is the 10th best among retired post-WWII players.  Ahead of him are (Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, Mickey Mantle, Mark McGwire, Stan Musial, Dick Allen, Frank Thomas, Willie Mays, and Frank Robinson).

2) He played in an era with a lot of great hitting 1Bs. Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado, Fred McGriff, and Jason Giambi to name a few.

3) While his AVG was very good (career. 297), it was his ability to walk that led to his excellent .408 career OBP (14th best among post-WWII players).  As mentioned above, walking/OBP has traditionally been undervalued (and the nominations of Jim Rice and Andre Dawson confirm they are still undervalued).

4) Baserunning isn’t generally expected nor valued for 1st basemen. Bagwell is clearly the best baserunner amongst modern-day 1Bs (even Cecil Fielder!). His career baserunning (using B-R’s Rbaser) of 29 runs above average is more than double that of the next modern 1B (Albert Pujols – 14).  To give some perspective, Rafael Palmeiro is at -10 runs below replacement, Todd Helton at -11 runs, Mark McGwire at -19 runs, Frank Thomas at -26 runs, Jim Thome at -27 runs, and Carlos Delgado the worst at -30 runs.  The conversion is 10 runs per win so Bagwell’s running led an estimated 3-6 additional teams wins in his career vs. other similar slugging first basemen of his era.

5) Fielding isn’t traditionally valued very high for 1st basemen. While Bagwell falls short of the pantheon of fielding 1Bs (top modern-day 1Bs based on B-R’s Rfield (very close to TZ) – are Keith Hernandez, Albert Pujols, and John Olerud), he’s at about the 20th percentile of qualified 1Bs and that is including an AWFUL 2005 season where Bagwell’s arthritic shoulder led to him being tied for the worst defensive 1B season ever.  Take away the shoulder injury and he’d be closer to the 10th percentile.  Several of the slugging 1Bs of the era were below-average fielders including Jim Thome (-22 runs below average), Mark McGwire (-30 runs below average), Fred McGriff (-34 runs) Carlos Delgado (-43 runs), Frank Thomas (-64 runs), and Jason Giambi (-73 runs).

6) Houston is a great city to have an excellent and anonymous career. Ask Jimmy Wynn and Jose Cruz Sr.

So even though Bagwell had 3 MVP-quality seasons (1994, 1996, 1997) – which is one more than Jim Thome (1), Todd Helton (1), Frank Thomas (0), Rafael Palmeiro (0), Mark McGwire (0), and Carlos Delgado (0) combined – he doesn’t register quite the same as some of his peers.

Add all this up and Bagwell is a no-brainer selection that probably will not get in 1st ballot but will by his 2nd or 3rd ballot.

Fun (and potentially fictional) fact:

The infamous Red Sox-Astro trade of Jeff Bagwell for reliever Larry Anderson was influenced by Boston’s management’s desire for players with hard A’s in their name.  Studies at the time showed that opposing players would be distracted by the fans chanting these names.  Larry Anderson has twice the hard A’s as Jeff Bagwell.  If Bagwell’s name was Jack, he would’ve never been traded by the Sox.  This odd policy paid dividends when they drafted Nomar Garciaparra sight unseen.

Yes, I will continue to call Brandon Allen a fantasy sleeper every year until he breaks out.  I will also continue to say his name sounds like a furniture store.  I’m just having a hard time writing off this mollywhooping, two-hundred and thirty-five pound behemoth that had an OBP of .405 in Triple-A last year.  The OBP won’t translate into a great average; he’s more in the Adam Dunn mold.  He strikes out, walks and hits homers.  There’s even a few surprising steals in his game.  That sounds downright donkeyish!  No wonder I like him.  Since he’ll already be 25 when the 2011 season opens, the D-Backs have to give him his shot soon.  They just gotta, man.  Seriously, please don’t play Parra or Nady over him.  In Triple-A last year, he had 25 homers, 14 steals and a .405 OBP.  If that doesn’t get your blood flowing, check your pulse.  You might be dead.  So what can we expect of Brandon Allen for 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Expect nothing.  That’s always a good way to start.  At least that’s what I tell the ladies.  If the Diamondbacks give Allen 500 ABs, which I do think they will, Allen will get 25 homers and a few steals.  That’s the baseline.  When you hear the baseline and see his average draft position, you nod your head.  Or maybe that’s bassline.  You know when your leaguemates start to leave the draft because they promised their wife they’d go to Hometown Buffet for their 30th anniversary?  I.e, the last rounds of the draft that some people invariably autodraft.  That’s when you’re taking Allen.  He might not give you anything, but it doesn’t matter.  You can drop your last draft pick before Opening Day without any of that pesky guilt.  You’re drafting him because his upside is, say, Carlos Quentin.

New York Yankees 2010 Minor League Review
Overall farm rankings via Baseball America (2010)
2010 (18) | 2009 (15) | 2008 (5) | 2007 (7) | 2006 (17) | 2005 (24) | 2004 (27)

Record of Major and Minor League Teams
MLB: [95 – 67] AL East
AAA: [85 – 56] International League – Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
AA: [83 – 59] Eastern League – Trenton
A+: [78 – 57] Florida League – Tampa
A: [65 – 74] South Atlantic – Charleston
A(ss): [34 – 40] New York – Pennsylvania League – Staten Island
R: [24 – 32] Gulf League

The Run Down
For as much as the media lambasts the Yankees receive for trading their prospects, they have a wealth of talent that is often ignored. The Yankees didn’t make too many trades during the season, it was the preseason trade of Austin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Curtis Granderson that shook the 2009-2010 offseason. In July, the Yankees received Lance Berkman for Mark Melancon and Jimmy Peradas – this was the most talent lost in a trade during the season. Zach McAllister to the Indians in the Austin Kearns deal was about getting the most value for McAllister who has a declining a strikeout rate, and it wasn’t great in the beginning (7.0 K/9 for career, but 6.0 K/9 in 139 innings at Double-A). The Yankees have one of the best hitting prospects in the game with Jesus Montero, who, despite having a good year, was pushed off the prospect-hype scene as he struggled out of the gate. There are also a few intriguing arms in the higher minors, and some young arms that will most likely be good trade bait in the upcoming year(s). With an aging squad and questions about pitching, the infusion of young talents, such as Jesus Montero, Ivan Nova, Hector Noesi, David Phelps, and Andrew Brackman may see extensive major league time this year.

Graduating Prospects
(2B/3B) Ramiro Pena

Arizona Fall League Players – Phoenix Desert Dogs
Pitchers: (RHP) Craig Heyer; (RHP) George Kontos; (RHP) Aaron Pribanic; (RHP) Brian Leach
Hiiters: #2 (C) Austin Romine; #13 (2B) Corban Joseph; (1B/OF) Brandon Laird;

Players of Interest
#1 Jesus Montero | C | D.o.B: 11-28-89 | Stats (AAA): .289/.353/.517 | 453 AB | 58 XBH | 21 Hr | .228 ISO | 0/0 SB/CS | 91:46 K:BB | .319 BABIP
What else is there to say that you haven’t heard. From the 2009 Minor League Review, “Scouts and insiders in the Yankee organization claim that Montero is the best pure hitter since Derek Jeter … [but with] much more power … [defensively] he can’t field … [l]ong term he is a DH, not a catcher, especially with Austin Romine just a step behind Montero. Keep your expectations for 2010 in check. 2011, that’s a different story.” Well, the upcoming year is 2011 and Montero finished the year strong, much like Mark Texiera is known to do. With an ISO of .228, a decent strikeout-to-walk ratio, and a great slash line (.289/.353/.517), Montero didn’t just survive Triple-A at the ripe age of 20 (turned 21 in November), he excelled. Read Grey’s excellent Fantasy Outlook on Montero. (Note from Grey:  That Montero post was from before Russell Martin ended up in the South Bronx.)

#2 Austin Romine | C | D.o.B: 11-22-89 | Stats (AA): 268/.324/.402 | 455 AB | 41 XBH | 10 Hr | .136 ISO | 2/0 SB/CS | 94:37 K:BB | .316 BABIP
Baseball America states he has the “tools to be an average or plus defender.” What are those tools? Good defense, an above-average arm and a “good athlete.” Scouts say he has good raw power but struggles handling velocity, lacks patience at the plate and swing gets long while he needs to add polish. Sounds like another year until Romine sees extensive time at the major leagues. He is still considered the Yankees backstop of the future. Expect a .250 to .270 average in the majors with high strikeouts but 17 to 20 home runs in his prime.

Pitchers
#10 Andrew Brackman | RHP | D.o.B: 12-4-85 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.1 K/9 | 2.5 BB/9 | 140 2/3 IP | 3.90 ERA | 3.12 FIP (A+); 3.32 FIP (AA) | 1.30 WHIP | .5 Hr/9 | 9.2 H/9 | .354 BABIP (A+); .320 BABIP (AA)
His fastball has been clocked at 99 MPH, but usually sits between 92 to 96 MPH, flashes a plus-plus curveball and his changeup is harder to find than a unicorn. He has great arm strength and is physically what a pitcher should look like. However, as John Sickels says, “[He's] wild … inconsistent … has awkward mechanics.” That might explain his elbow reconstruction surgery. Brackman’s 2010 season was the opposite of his career norm. He had control, he thrived in the mid-minors (Double-A) where he threw 80 2/3 innings, and his lucky was unlucky. I wouldn’t expect Brackman to be a starter in the majors, unless his mechanics have changed drastically. There is power reliever written all over Brackman.

#24 Hector Noesi | RHP | D.o.B: 1-26-87 | Stats (A+/AA/AAA): 8.6 K/9 | 1.6 BB/9 | 160 1/3 IP | 3.20 ERA | 2.20 FIP (A+); 2.99 FIP (AA) | 1.10 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 8.3 H/9 | .319 BABIP (A+); .302 BABIP (AA)
Although Noesi struggled at Triple-A in 18 2/3 innings, this Tommy John survivor has some intriguing potential. Sickels “loves [his] control and velocity combo.” Scouts believe he can add velocity with his easy delivery. Noesie throws a 88 to 92 MPH fastball with good life up in the zone, has a deceptive changeup but his curveball needs to be tighter. I like Noesi as a possible filler, end of the rotation option if Ivan Nova struggles.

#16 Ivan Nova | RHP | D.o.B: 1-12-87 | Stats (AAA): 7.1 K/9 | 3.0 BB/9 | 145 IP | 2.86 ERA | 3.54 FIP | 1.26 WHIP | .6 Hr/9 | 8.4 H/9 | .298 BABIP
Speaking of Nova, his strong 42 innings in the majors during the 2010 season have people excited about his fantasy sleeper potential. However, a 5.6 K/9 combined with a 3.6 BB/9 and a 4.36 FIP in those innings at the major league level don’t inspire hope, not when they are combined with boring numbers like 7.1 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 at Triple-A, a 89 to 93 MPH fastball, command that Baseball America states is fringe-average and a changeup that is fringe at best. His ceiling is a number four starter.

#25 David Phelps | LHP | D.o.B: 10-9-86 | Stats (AA/AAA): 8.0 K/9 | 2.0 BB/9 | 158 2/3 IP | 2.50 ERA | 2.44 FIP (AA); 2.92 FIP (AAA) | 1.10 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 7.9 H/9 | .267 BABIP (AA); .337 BABIP (AAA)
Phelps is poised to be a Jon Garland or Joe Saunders at his best. Possessed with a 91 to 95 MPH fastball and good control, a changeup that is below average and a fringe slider; I’m not too excited about Phelps. He is definitely a more valuable real world pitcher than fantasy. He did split his 2010 season at Double-A and Triple-A (88 1/3 IP at AA and 70 1/3 IP at Triple-A). He is a back end starter.

Honorable Mentions
Hitters
Brandon Laird | 1B/3B/OF | D.o.B: 9-11-87 | Stats (AA/AAA): .281/.336/.482 | 531 AB | 55 XBH | 25 Hr | .201 ISO | 2/2 SB/CS | 111:42 K:BB | .315 BABIP (AA); .298 BABIP (AAA)
Laird has a quick bat according to John Sickels. Defensively, he’s average at best when playing third base, above-average at first base with good mobility, and he has a strong, or slightly above-average arm. Sickels states he could be a “surprise success.” That’s what I’m hoping for. Although Laird smashed Double-A pitching, he struggled at Triple-A hitting .246/.268/.344 in 122 at bats. He needs more seasoning.

Pitchers
#6 Manuel Banuelos | LHP | D.o.B: 3-13-91 | Stats (A+/AA): 11.8 K/9 | 3.5 BB/9 | 64 2/3 IP | 2.51 ERA | 1.71 FIP (A+) | 1.22 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 7.5 H/9 | .370 BABIP (A+)
From the archives of Baseball America, “Throws an 88 to 92 MPH fastball and can touch 94 mph in relief, changeup rates as solid-average and curveball is fringy. Good mound presence, poise and makeup. A number three starter who can eat innings.” Made three starts at Double-A in which he lost some control (4.7 BB/9) but strikeouts remained (10.0 K/9).

#28 Dellin Betances | RHP | D.o.B: 3-23-88 | Stats (A+/AA): 11.4 K/9 | 2.3 BB/9 | 85 1/3 IP | 2.11 ERA | 1.83 FIP (A+); 3.97 FIP (AA) | .88 WHIP | .4 Hr/9 | 5.6 H/9 | .272 BABIP (A+); .255 BABIP (AA)
Benefited by great luck (.272 BABIP (A+); .255 BABIP (AA)) during his 17 starts (14 at A+), Betances throws a 93 to 94 MPH fastball that peaks at 97 MPH, a plus-curveball but lacks command – at least in the past. A fair warning: he has also had Tommy John surgery in the past. Also, he has been compared to Daniel Cabrera due to having plus-stuff but not learning how to pitch.

#26 Adam Warren | RHP | D.o.B: 10-25-87 | Stats (A+/AA): 8.4 K/9 | 2.2 BB/9 | 135 1/3 IP | 2.59 ERA | 2.72 FIP (A+); 2.56 FIP (AA) | 1.14 WHIP | .3 Hr/9 | 8.0 H/9 | .302 BABIP (A+); .333 BABIP (AA)
Here is another shout out to a back-end rotation starter, middle reliever, or possible trade bait. Warren throws a 90 to 92 MPH fastball with good command and sinking action, a cutter, solid-average changeup, a slow curveball.

Pat Venditte | RHP/LHP | D.o.B: 6-30-85 | Stats (A+): 10.5 K/9 | 1.7 BB/9 | 72 2/3 IP | 1.73 ERA | 1.88 FIP | .87 WHIP | .2 Hr/9 | 6.1 H/9 | .277 BABIP
The switch-pitcher. He has been kept in the low minors, but not because he hasn’t pitched well. Receiving only two innings of work at Double-A, I’m starting to question if Venditte will ever get a chance to reach the majors. I wrote a Scouting the Unknown back in early September of 2009. It’s a good article, you should check it out. He still needs to prove himself at Double-A. Still an intriguing prospect to watch.

If Sean Rodriguez didn’t have 2nd base eligibility, he wouldn’t get this 2011 fantasy sleeper post.  Keep that in mind.  I like him, but he doesn’t have a secure enough spot in the Rays’ plans to warrant his own post without that eligibility, which, of course, is much prettier at your middle infidel spot.  Last year in part-time duty (hehe, I said duty), Rodriguez had a line of 53/9/40/.251/13.  Yawn all you want, but that’s in only 343 ABs.  There were probably times when you owned him.  Say exiting Spring Training (.460 average, .873 SLG) or maybe you owned him from June to August (7 homers, 10 steals in 211 ABs).  Maybe you owned him because you remembered he was some kinda Baldwin in the minors — 30 homers and 9 steals in 2009.  That woke you up, huh?  How about this — in 744 minor league games, he has 127 homers and 104 steals.  Before we start gazing into each others’ eyes and whispering sweet-nothings, Sean-Rod put up those numbers in hitter-friendly parks. Prior to exiting this Intro Paragraph, let me point out he’ll be 26-years-old in April.  It’s getting close to now or never.  How one responds to that is anyone’s guess, but it’s there.  So what can we expect of Sean Rodriguez in 2011 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

It’s really about opportunity with Sean Rodriguez.  If he gets 500 ABs, he could give you 15-20 homers and 15-20 steals.  Right now, as I type this post, I don’t think he gets 500 ABs.  But — and unless you’re an alien there’s always a but — he can get 500 ABs.  No one’s drafting Rodriguez in the first 15 or so rounds.  In some leagues, he won’t be drafted at all.  As a last round MI, it doesn’t even matter if he has a starting job when you draft.  Would you prefer Orlando Hudson as your MI who you’re going to drop by April 20th?  Or would you prefer a guy with 20/20 upside that may not have a job?  You want the latter, which, I believe, is the second one.  Trust me, if you need to find an MI replacement in April, you’ll be able to.  Go for upside!  In 2011, I could see Sean Rodriguez giving a line of 65/18/75/.245/20.  Sure, that’s crazy optimistic, but whatevs it’s a late-round flier.  (BTW, is it flyer or flier?  Can I get a ruling on this?  Thank you.)

Me no happy Ryan Raburn doesn’t have 2nd base eligibility across all formats.  He missed starting 20 games at 2nd by two games.  Deuces are wild.  Or as they say in LA nightclubs, douches are wild.  If Leyland wasn’t out having a smoke, Raburn would’ve got those last two games.  Switch to Vapor Pro!  (Which reminds me… Recently, I went to visit a friend who runs one of these posh rehab clinics — He used to be so much fun!  Oh, well. — and everyone smokes.  Some smoke Vapor Pro so they can smoke indoors too.  Anyhoo, my friend just did a pick up of a new patient and I guess when they go in to grab an addict they have to clean their cupboards of any booze so when the addict returns home there’s no temptations.  Well, it just happened that my friend still had this no-longer-needed booze in his car.  So guess who went home with twenty bottles of wine, a few bottles of fancy schmancy vodka and some whiskey?  I got booze for days!)  In some formats, Raburn does have 2nd base eligibility.   In those leagues, I say this sleeper post is a no-brainer, my specialty.  Now maybe he’s dealing with the same issue as Alexei Ramirez and can’t take the cold weather, but Raburn’s 2nd half in 2009 was better than his 1st half and last year he made it a trend with 13 homers, .315 average in 251 ABs.  Same amount of 2nd half homers as Robby Cano, Adrian Gonzalez and Hunter Pence.  Raburn has the best average out of those three.  Cherry picking names, you say.  I say, yeah, so?  You start a blog and you cherry pick the names you want.  So what can we expect of Ryan Raburn next year and what makes him a 2011 fantasy baseball sleeper?

I think 15 homers is the absolute lowest homer total we’ll see.  I think 20 homers is more likely.  And 20+ homers is definitely a possibility.  He just needs to put a full season together.  Or better yet, the Tigers need to give him a full season of at-bats.  Stop with this 4 or 5 days a week shizz.  Put him out there for 500+ ABs.  If he gets those ABs, I’d give him a line of 70/21/80/.275/3.  It’s not scream at your neighbors, “I love Ryan Raburn!” type numbers, but, again, at 2nd base you can do much worse.  Oh, and there’s some upside on those numbers.  So, yeah, he’s a total MIF — Middle Infielder Flier.