Two Startapalooza, Week 22: I Can Be Your Masa-hero, Baby

Well, let’s try this again, shall we? At this time last week we expected Stephen Strasburg to debut Tuesday and get two starts, but instead he got pushed back to Wednesday and blew up for five runs in four innings. What a treat! Like a bombsicle on the Fourth of July, I tell ya. So THIS week, supposedly, he lines up twice against the Phillies and Brewers. I’ve got him in Tier 3 as a non-must-start. If you have him you’re probably starting him, but he’s liable to give you a queasy feeling like when you hit the Taco Bell drive through at 3AM. Overall, the options are pretty sparse this week, which is rough news for those of you needing help in your H2H leagues. Some off days and back ends of the rotations turning twice make for a pretty thin group. Guys like Cole Hamels and Jon Gray make up the bulk of Tier 2, and Tier 3 is short and iffy. Tier 4 is where it’s at this week, with a thick, meaty array of guys that’ll make you shrug and go “Meh, it can’t be any worse than yesterday when Janet from accounting rejected my offer to take her to Red Lobster”. Guys like Lance Lynn and Sam Gaviglio inhabit that Tier with great matchups, but, you know, they’re Lance Lynn and Sam Gaviglio. You can’t expect too much. Tier 5 is about as short as it has been all season, and with some rotations in flux, it’s hard to nail down any more options right now. However, if you play in a reverse league or are for some reason actively trying to lose your matchup, James Shields against the Yankees and BoSox is just about as big a gas can as you can muster to throw on your team.

• Noah Syndergaard (NYM) – Thor hasn’t been very ace-like in August, with a 4.50 ERA over 32 innings and a mere 7.88 K/9. The low K-rate and inability to hold baserunners on first have contributed to a strand rate down at 64%. His FIP is still 2.75 over that span, but his tendency to catch too much of the plate and lackluster defense have always led him to keep a high BABIP. Because of that I’m not sure I buy him pitching near that FIP moving forward, but some positive regression is to be expected. Regardless of a bad month, he’s friggin Thor, and you’re starting him with the stinky Giants offense on the docket.

• Cole Hamels (CHC) – It’s crazy. With seemingly the snap of a finger, the Cubs acquired Hamels and his velocity jumped up a full mile per hour. He opened the season tossing 90 MPH, and he has averaged 93 on the fastball in August. This has helped his changeup play up, and he’s earned a 0.89 ERA in August (since he joined the Cubs). His ground ball rate is up, and his hard contact is way down from 48% in July to 28% in August. That helps legitimize his surface stats. The Mets and Phillies aren’t too intimidating, so roll him out with confidence. Also, never forget that his spoonerism name is Hole Camels, which is terrific.

• Masahiro Tanaka (NYY) – I very nearly pushed Tanaka into Tier 2 in a week like this, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. He’s got some gravy matchups against poor AL Central opponents. Unfortunately, they’re both in New York where he has a 1.5 HR/9 since the start of last season. You’ve gotta play him with these matchups anyway, but I’m not convinced one of them doesn’t go south because of gopheritis. Hopefully he can be your playoff Masa-hero.

• Carlos Rodon (CHW) – “Dokken?! What the hell, bro? Don’t you know Rodon has a 1.75 ERA since the friggin start of July, bro? Do you even lift?” OK, first of all, don’t worry about my lifting, made up John Q. Public individual. Second, yes! I realize how good Rodon has been, and I’m not buying it. Not completely, at least. His FIP is 3.61 over that span, with just a 7.5 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9. Add in two brutal matchups with the Yanks and BoSox and you have me looking for other options. Please Ro-don’t.

• Ivan Nova (PIT) – I guess the best thing you can say about Nova is that his matchups are OK. There isn’t much else to look at here in Tier 5, and Nova has a tendency to impress you in between clunkers. He actually has a decent 3.57 ERA in August, but a 5.16 K/9 to go with it. The lack of strikeouts is consistent and really limits his ceiling. If you’re in a points league and just need sheer innings, however, Nova isn’t a bad option. That’s also Paul Scheer’s favorite format, from what I’ve heard.

*All pitchers are probable for two starts as of Friday evening.

You can find Dokken on Twitter @NathanDokken