Two Startapalooza, Week 21: The Titanic Vs. A Strasburg

With the season winding down (especially for those in H2H leagues) streaming the right matchups are more important than ever. Fortunately, we have more data now than at any point in the season to help us choose wisely. Be Indiana Jones. Choose the right chalice.

Tier 1 is a trio of aces you don’t need me to tell you to start, but Tier 2 has some interesting names in Zack Wheeler and Stephen Strasburg. Wheeler has been incredible since the start of June, with a 2.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Giants are susceptible to righties, which is enough to get me to start him everywhere. Tier 3 has some great options as well, like a matchup-based Tanaka, a surging Rodon (which sounds like a euphemism but I swear it’s not), and a, um, foodstuff exporting Holland? Listen, it’s late in the season. Give me a break. Tier 4 is honestly pretty gross, with the likes of Chase Anderson, Shane Bieber, and Mike Fiers that are guys that you really can’t rely on to not destroy your week. Tier 5 makes you cringe, like usual, although Brett Anderson is at least coming off a strong start. There is a decent enough chance he strikes out zero batters though, which you might say limits his upside.

• Blake Snell (TB) – Not too much to say on these guys. Snell is perhaps the diciest of the bunch since he has yet to pitch beyond five innings since his return from the disabled list. However, he’s also only allowed a single run over those 14 innings (3 GS) with a 15:3 K:BB ratio. He has also handled Boston really well this year, yielding just two runs over 19 innings (3 GS). Do not fret this week, Mr. Snell Owner.

• Stephen Strasburg (WSH) – If the Titanic had his a Strasburg instead of an iceberg, we could have saved so many lives. The boat would have won. Of course, then we wouldn’t have got to watch an old lady toss jewelry into the ocean. RIP Bill Paxton (and probably that old lady too, I assume). On the bright side, Stras is back baby!! Well…probably. This is one to monitor heading into lineup lock on Monday, but as of now he’s scheduled to return from the DL Tuesday and pile up two starts against manageable offenses. If you’re in good shape in the standings and are worried about yet another disaster start, frankly, I understand. It’s a bit dangerous, but most Stras owners could probably use the help. If the injuries are truly behind him, he should easily justify this Tier 2 rank.

• Masahiro Tanaka – It’s hard to find a week with better matchups than this. While the Orioles have been far more productive over the second half, they’re still a team I’m not shying away from in the streaming game. Same goes for the Marlins, except for that bit about being better over the second half. The real downside here is that Tanaka is maddeningly inconsistent. Rostering Masahiro Tanaka is actually what drove H.P. Lovecraft to write every single one of his stories. He’ll string together a few good games and then give up three taters in a single start and make you wish you had eaten that extra helping of noodles instead of stopping after one bowl and remembering to put him in your lineup. You could have had carbs, instead you got taters. Except taters are carbs, so…huh.

• Chase Anderson (MIL) – By all accounts, Anderson has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this season. With a 3.97 ERA but a 5.26 FIP, his ERA-FIP is -1.30. That mark is the largest in the majors. What has he done to achieve that .235 BABIP you ask? Allow 36% hard contact? No, that’s not it. Strike out a pedestrian 7.24 batters per nine? No, that’s not right either. Maybe his 3.48 BB/9 is tricking batters into thinking they’re getting a free pass, only to watch him sneak a strike in for a punchout and they turn tail and shuffle back to the dugout!! Seems unlikely, but I don’t have any statistics to wave that one away. Basically, I don’t like Chase Anderson, but he gets two not-horrible matchups this week, which is all it takes to sneak into an ugly Week 21 Tier 4.

• Dylan Bundy (BAL) – Holy mother of the banana boat float, what has happened to Dylan Bundy?! Since the start of July, Bundy owners (who have kept starting him) have endured an 8.33 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. This isn’t just bad luck, as his FIP is also an atrocious 7.17. His breaking balls have lost some drop, most notably his curveball, which (wisely) is sparingly used. His slider has gotten worse as well though, and basically everything he’s throwing is getting tattooed. I’m not sure there’s a quick fix here, and with a pair of matchups in homer-friendly parks, Bundy descends to the murky depths of Tier 5 this week.

*All pitchers are scheduled for two starts as of Friday evening.

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