Rest easy, Dodgertown, it looks like your savior lefty has returned to the mound after bated breath. And after his triumphant return in the west he’ll be coming over the mountains to the east climbing hills a mile high. It’s part Gandalf coming from the east on the fifth day, mixed with a splash of Malibu Rocky (think ‘Malibu Ken’…but with Sly Stallone’s growl) and a heaping of Clayton Kershaw.
But wait (gasp!)…it’s not. There’s no Kershaw to be had! In his stead we see a genius front office deadline move come to fruition as none other than Rich Hill took the mound against the Giants this past week and slayed them in route to a 1-0 win. Blisters be damned! Now, Rich Hill’s no slouch; hasn’t been for a few years now. In fact, his numbers trump those above him in our two-start pitchers rankings this week, but both perception and name value may leave Hill a little underwhelming in the eyes of players. How mistaken you’d be if you fall on that side of the line. Let’s examine a little closer, and give a few words as to why my confidence is heavyweight strong for Hill in Week 22.
After a five week hiatus to heal his hand, Hill picked up where he left off with the Athletics. He’s carried a 9.00 K/9 through his career, and this year, at 36 years old, that mark jumped to 10.21. But this year, while the K’s are of course legit, it’s the other factors that are helping fantasy teams. In 15 starts he has 10 W (a pace of 25 W across a full 33 start season) and an ERA of 2.09. After dominating rival San Fran last week, Hill eclipsed his innings total from the past five years combined this season (82 IP), which leads to the unassuming nature of his dominance. Dude can’t stay healthy, so counting on him must be as hesitant as possible. For Week 22, though, I’m up for the challenge.
Now I know what you’ll say, ‘But M@…he’s going to Caooooors.’ Yep, you’re right. He’s tapping the Rockies. Um…and…??? Listen, I’ll die on the hill of starting him twice despite the Colorado trip due to one small, overlooked stat: HR/9. In those limited innings Hill’s only surrendered 2 HR! Sustainable? Probably not, but whenever Hill starts you’re essentially getting 6 IP of a truly dominant closer with the stuff that mitigates any hitters advantage of hitting in the thin air of Denver’s mile high hill. Oh, then tack on a home start against the Padres and, hahaha, it’s too good to be true. I’ll push my chips to the middle of the table on Hill’s value ROS. The upside is massive, and, at this point, this cost must be quite minimal. Glad he’s back…just wait until LA actually does get Kershaw, too!
See, he’s a Hill to die on when it comes to your fantasy hopes in securing a playoff spot. But he ain’t the only one…Here’s the rest of the Week 22 Two-Start Pitchers!
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Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent worst 8 or best 8 opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.
THE BEST
| Player | Team | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Fernandez | MIA | @NYM, @CLE | 2.91/2.23 | 12.89/2.66 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | SEA, HOU | 2.91/3.42 | 11.22/2.63 |
| Rich Hill | LAD | @COL, SD | 2.09/2.51 | 10.21/3.07 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHC | PIT, SF | 2.19/3.37 | 7.99/2.25 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | PIT, SF | 2.62/3.30 | 8.80/3.45 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | MIA, WAS | 2.96/3.33 | 8.62/2.01 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | SD, @PHI | 3.15/3.78 | 7.91/1.98 |
THE REPLICAS
| Player | Team | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Roark | WAS | @PHI, @NYM | 2.99/3.79 | 7.16/2.89 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | @CHC, MIL | 3.55/3.16 | 7.50/2.53 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | TB, @OAK | 3.23/3.65 | 7.56/1.46 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | @KC, @BAL | 3.11/3.23 | 7.61/1.50 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | @MIL, @CIN | 3.13/3.70 | 7.33/3.19 |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | ARI, @CHC | 2.86/3.09 | 7.91/1.70 |
THE STANDARDS
| Player | Team | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | @TEX, LAA | 3.81/4.27 | 6.52/1.99 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | CIN, @SEA | 3.98/3.57 | 7.95/1.78 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | MIN, MIA | 3.88/3.96 | 8.08/3.51 |
| Joe Musgrove | HOU | OAK, @TEX | 5.20/4.01 | 8.13/0.98 |
THE KNOCKOFFS
| Player | Team | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | NYM | MIA, WAS | 2.51/2.73 | 7.52/3.14 |
| Matt Andriese | TB | @BOS, TOR | 3.71/3.74 | 7.61/1.95 |
| Jon Gray | COL | LAD, ARI | 4.61/3.72 | 9.63/3.12 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | @LAA, STL | 3.57/4.43 | 7.31/3.15 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | CHW, @KC | 3.98/4.78 | 7.71/2.89 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | STL, @PIT | 4.06/3.94 | 7.31/2.30 |
THE 
| Player | Team | Opponents | ERA/FIP | K9/BB9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Jackson | SD | @ATL, @LAD | 5.71/5.47 | 5.54/4.50 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | @HOU, BOS | 4.53/4.39 | 7.67/2.30 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | @KC, @BAL | 4.33/4.17 | 7.67/3.41 |
| Dillon Gee | KC | NYY, DET | 4.55/5.06 | 7.27/2.73 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | @NYM, @CLE | 3.85/4.09 | 7.14/3.79 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | @CLE, CHW | 9.24/6.17 | 8.51/5.59 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | TOR, NYY | 5.51/4.78 | 6.78/2.69 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | @CLE, CHW | 6.24/4.85 | 7.49/2.26 |
| James Shields | CHW | @DET, @MIN | 5.98/5.97 | 6.10/3.78 |
| Anthony Ranuado | CHW | @DET, @MIN | 9.61/8.28 | 5.03/6.86 |
| Jake Thompson | PHI | WAS, ATL | 9.78/7.34 | 6.05/6.05 |
All pitchers are projected for two-starts as of Friday night.
Good luck in Week 22, and DROP THOSE COMMENTS! Can’t wait to see Rich Hill snap that curve over against the Padres, but again, don’t be afraid of Hill climbing the mile high hill to battle the Rockies. My money’s on him still pitching a 6-inning gem.
