Juan Soto is not having a great start to the season or as a Met. Sure, he’s $765 million richer, still walking at an elite rate, scoring a lot of runs, and stealing bases at a greater frequency than expected. But in terms of HR, AVG, and OPS—three big drivers in many leagues—Soto has largely come up flat.
You know this if you’re a Mets fan, if you follow Mets Twitter, or if you’re one of the many fantasy managers who used a top 3-5 pick on Soto in drafts this past offseason.
If you’re one of those people, this article is for you. If you’re in a league with a frustrated Soto manager, this article is for you, too.
Let me start with this: while Soto has not been great this season, he’s actually kind of been great.
I know that sounds ridiculous, but two things can be true at the same time in baseball. A player can be doing everything right. And at the same time, it can seem like everything is going wrong. That is because “luck” does exist in baseball. Or variance. Or whatever word best encapsulates the idea that a lot of random stuff in the game contributes to fortunate and unfortunate outcomes for players.
Fortunately for us, there are more tools than ever to determine just how lucky or unlucky players are in a given season. Here is some data I like to use to make such determinations:
BABIP – to determine if a hitter is getting lucky or unlucky with balls in play HR to FB ratio (HR/FB) – to determine if they are hitting HR at a significantly lower or higher rate than normal (this can be influenced by luck) Exit Velocity (EV) – to determine if their batted ball quality is weak or strong Barrel% – also used to determine weak or strong batted ball quality Swing strike percentage (SwStr%) – to determine if they’re making consistent contact xwOBA – to get a more accurate picture of their expected offensive value based largely on batted ball quality and speed. |
Now, let’s use those stats to look under the hood to gain an understanding of just how unlucky Soto has been this season.
Honestly, not much changed under the hood for Juan Soto this season (see the red in the chart above).
From his swinging-strike percentage (SwStr%), we can see pitchers are no more effective at making him swing and miss. His 6.0 SwStr% is among the best in baseball. While not referenced above, his 17% strikeout rate this season is also equal to his career rate. Both stats indicate he’s not suddenly being exploited or overpowered by certain pitchers or pitch types. He’s still making plenty of contact.
His power is still completely intact as well. Both his EV and Barrel% are above career norms and elite by MLB standards.
Making consistent contact—check.
Hitting with elite contact quality—check.
Hitting the ball with power and authority and making consistent contact are the two most fundamentally important characteristics of a good hitter. Soto has consistently been among the best in baseball in both areas, which has not changed this season.
So what exactly has changed? (See the blue in chart above)
For starters, his luck with balls in play has turned south. Not only is his BABIP a career low, but it is also unsustainably low for a player with his level of contact quality. Nobody making this kind of hard contact should ever have a BABIP closer to .200 than .300. It’s just poor luck.
Additionally, his HR/FB ratio is well below his career rate. While a hitter’s HR/FB can fluctuate year to year, generally speaking you should not see massive fluctuations like we see on the chart. His 2025 rate isn’t awful, but given how consistently he’s smoking the ball (see EV and Barrel% again), it is lower than expected.
Yes, he’s hitting the ball on the ground a bit more this year than last. But he’s had elite seasons with ground ball rates over 50%. And with an elite hitter like Soto, that typically results in a higher HR/FB ratio, not a lower one.
So, Juan Soto has been unlucky with balls in play, which is negatively impacting his batting average, and he’s been unlucky with his HR/FB, which is negatively impacting his HR and power numbers. And that basically tells the tale.
I would expect Soto’s fortunes to turn in the coming weeks and months, especially as the weather warms and he gets more comfortable in a Mets uniform. Then things will start to feel Juan-derful again for Mets fans and fantasy managers alike.
Because I have Josh Naylor at 1B, I therefore Think than Ben arice, who I also have, would be good trade bait. I think that I aimed too high when I tried for Flaherty and Ober. Both were rejected.
What do think offering Rice for Weathers or Birdsong?
Would you target another pitcher in a trade? Do you have any possible na es?
I really appreciate all your help!!
Weathers and Birdsong both have great upside. There’s some downside risk with them too but the same is true for Rice.
I worry a little about Weathers’ elbow but I like Rice for either of those two given your situation.
Sometimes you have to chase upside, even if it burns you.
Keep forever with no contracts
Soto or Julio?
Soto by a wide margin.
Hi Maks,
I have some intriguing pitching and I can only start three of these four. Of course, I can choose not to start any. I have learned the hard way that who you sit is as important as who you start.
Merrill Kelly vs Wash
Casey Mize at KC
Seth Lugo vs Det
Liberatore at Texas
Note: Mize is pitching against Lugo who is just coming off IL
Which of these four would you start and which ones to sit?
Do you have certain metrics to decide?
Thanks!!! Really appreciate all your help!!
Liberatore is a must start against everyone except maybe the Dodgers at this point.
Detroit is really good this year but Lugo continues to defy odds. Maybe a little risky but he’s a solid bet.
Mize against the Royals is a solid matchup though you maybe want to give him a start or two to knock the dust off from his IL stint.
Kelly is a solid option against Washington.
I’d probably start all four and hope for more good than bad–which seems likely.
Thanks so much!!!! really appreciate all these details!
Thanks Maks!
signed,
frustrated Soto owner
You are not alone!
Thanks for reading!
Hi Maks,
What a spectacular article! Where you look up these stats?
1. Appreciate your though on my OF:
My OF:
LF: Ozuma
CF: Buxton IL7
RF: Kerry Carpenter: LF and RF
Bench:
Yelich LF
Kyle Stowers LF, CF and RF
Would you make any changes to pick up one of the following off the WW or just hold:
TJ Friedl LF and CF
Wilyer Abreu LF,CF and RF
Sal Frelick LF and CF
Thanks!!
Thanks again!!
I get my stats from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant.
I would definitely make a move. Buxton is so unreliable, Yelich’s data has turned south, and I fear a correction is already under way for Stowers.
Snag Abreu for sure. Frelick is a solid option too if you need SBs.