Good day, everyone. I’m back from vacation and the first order of business is to get back to letting you know who I think is an up-and-coming dynasty player.
As the season progresses, a host of players are starting to come to the forefront as players who should be added to your team. One of those players is Spencer Arrighetti of the Houston Astros.
When it comes to the Astros, not a lot has gone right for the team this year. One of the few bright spots has been Arrighetti, a right-handed pitcher now in his third season with the club.
So let’s take a look at why Arrighetti is an up-and-coming dynasty player.
The Stats
| YEAR | TEAM | G-GS | W-L | IP | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Astros | 29-28 | 7-13 | 145 | 4.53 | 1.407 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 10.6 |
| 2025 | Astros | 7-7 | 1-5 | 35.1 | 5.35 | 1.415 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 7.9 |
| 2026 | Astros | 6-6 | 5-1 | 36 | 1.50 | 1.194 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 8.8 |
| Career | 42-41 | 13-19 | 216.1 | 4.16 | 1.373 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 9.9 |
Spencer Arrighetti broke in with the Astros in 2024, and his overall numbers weren’t great with a 4.53 ERA and 1.407 WHIP. But as the season progressed, he found his groove and was one of the better pitchers on the staff in the second half. In the first half, he had a 5.63 ERA and 1.600 WHIP. He then posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in the second half, covering 11 starts and 12 games overall.
Last season was a disaster for Arrighetti as he missed a huge portion of the season recovering from a freak accident when he broke his thumb when a batted ball hit him while standing in the outfield during batting practice. He was off to a good start as he had a 2.08 ERA and 0.865 WHIP through his first three starts. But when he returned in August, he went 0-4 in his four starts with an 8.50 ERA and 1.944 WHIP.
This season, he began the year at Triple-A as he lost the battle for the final starting spot in the rotation. But thanks to injuries and ineffectiveness of the few healthy starters, Arrighetti earned a spot back in the rotation and has been the ace of the staff with Hunter Brown on the IL.
The Tools
- Curve: 31% | 76.5 mph
Spencer Arrighetti has one of the biggest breaking curves in the game, at least when compared to other right-handed pitchers. He averages 17.8 inches of break, which is 8.5 inches more break vs. other right-handed pitchers. His 6.4 inches of drop is 3.9 inches less than the average righty.
His curve is also a slow pitch, coming in 4.3 mph slower than the average right-handed pitcher’s curve. The results when throwing the curve have been outstanding. Opposing hitters have only a .075 batting average and SLG, going 3-for-40 with three singles and 22 strikeouts as the pitch is generating a 50% whiff rate.
- 4-Seamer: 29% | 92.7 mph
In the day and age of high velocity pitching, Arrighetti’s 4-seamer is a pitch he uses to set up everything else as it comes in at only 92.7 mph, which is 2.4 mph slower than the average 4-seamer.
Despite the below average velocity of the pitch, hitters are having a tough time hitting it. Opposing batters have only a .156 batting average against his fastball with a .188 SLG.
- Sweeper: 14% | 78.4 mph
The sweeper is his third favorite pitch, and it plays off of his curve well. Arrighetti throws the pitch about two miles per hour faster than his curve and with 17.2 inches of break, which is about 3.3 inches more than vs. the baseline. Additionally, he actually gets about two inches of rise with the pitch.
So while his sweeper breaks about as much as his curve, this pitch stays higher in the strike zone while his curve is breaking down. While Arrighetti’s sweeper doesn’t have the high whiff rate his curve generates, hitters have only a .190 batting average against the pitch with a .381 SLG.
- Sinker: 10% | 92.4 mph
Arrighetti doesn’t throw his sinker much, and when he does, it is mostly against right handers, throwing it 20% of the time versus righties compared to 4% versus lefties. He throws the pitch high in the zone as it averages 1.1 inches less drop vs. other RHPs and has two inches more tail into right-handed hitters. However, opposing hitters have had success against the pitch as they have a .364 average against the pitch, though with only a .364 SLG.
- Change/Cutter: 9%/7% | 84.0/87.1 mph
These two pitches are rarely used and are often thrown just to give the opposing hitter something else to see. Hitters have a .444 average and .556 SLG against the change but only a .167/.250 slash line versus the cutter.
The Results
After a rough 2025 season, Spencer Arrighetti has righted the ship this season. In his six starts, he has yet to allow more than two earned runs, and the most runs he has allowed overall is three against the Reds. His last start against Texas was his best of the season. In 7.1 innings of work, he allowed only one hit with five strikeouts while walking four.
The walks is the one area of concern for Arrighetti. For his career, he averages 4.4 BB/9, and that number is at a hefty 5.3 BB/9 this year. The good news is he has so much movement on his pitches, hitters can’t get hits. In his three years in the majors, his H/9 rate has dropped from 8.6 to 7.6 to 5.5 this year. When it comes to strikeouts, he has been a little up-and-down in that department.
In his first start this year, he fanned 10 hitters in six innings of work. But he has not matched that number since, with eight Ks in seven innings of work being his second-best strikeout game of the year. Overall, he is averaging 8.8 K/9 this year, which is better than last season but lower than his 2025 season.
The Verdict
With pitching always being a need, there is no reason for you not to go after Spencer Arrighetti in the short term, as he has a 1.50 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and nearly averages a strikeout per inning.
But you should also want him for the long term value he will give you. Last season was just a lost cause for Arrighetti as he never really recovered from the injury. But over his last 14 games in 2024 and his first six starts this season, Arrighetti has a 2.57 ERA and 1.188 WHIP. Those are pretty good numbers, no matter who the pitcher is.
Those in Yahoo leagues will have a tougher time adding him to their roster as he is owned in 62% of leagues. Over in ESPN leagues, he is only rostered in 45% of leagues. Meanwhile, in Fantrax, you will likely have to trade for him as he is rostered in 90% of leagues.
Whether you can add him as a free agent or have to trade for him, Arrighetti is a good target to go after. Trading for him right now will likely cost you more than six weeks ago due to how well he is pitching. Will he continue to have such a great ERA? Not likely. However, I don’t think he is going to fall off the cliff and post the numbers he did last year. He has proven that when he is healthy, he is a very effective pitcher, one who will help your staff without question.
Thanks!
Thank you for reading, and come back again next week.
I’m enjoying the Arrighetti ride for now, but curious as to why you think his numbers won’t fall off a cliff when his xERA/SIERRA is in the high 4’s?