It was smooth sailing for filling the Razzball Commenter Leagues this year. Thank you everyone for getting in early and often! Only five drafts remain at this point with the Champions League waiting until the last possible moment to draft. Three leagues drafted Monday night, including the Perts League. Those Monday drafts are not included in the ADP sheet yet. There are pros and cons to drafting early. The biggest pro, of course, is the ability to snag rookies before their price goes sky-high. Think of Jackson Chourio last year. Some teams got him around pick 160 while others had to take him around 60 by the end of draft season. Maybe that is Kristian Campbell and Cam Smith this year. The biggest con, of course, is the injuries that can wreck your lineup. Gerrit Cole and Jared Jones drafters can unite here. Sad times. Drafters of any injured closer can commiserate in the comments as we dive into some more juicy ADP data.
DRAFT TRENDS
This week we’ll take a look at all of Grey’s sleepers and where their current RCL ADP has them landing so you know when to strike. Can’t remember whose tires December Grey was pumping? That’s OK, I’ve got you covered. As always, feel free to open up the RCL ADP SPREADSHEET that I maintain for all of your viewing pleasure, and check out your own sleeper target’s ADP. You can also just copy out the data to your own Excel sheet and use it in your own War Room if that tickles your fancy. Enjoy!
WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN’ NFBC ADP
We’ve got RCL ADP! Here’s a list from our 37 league sample of some players whose ADPs I was curious about and some general notes.
| PLAYER | ADP | HI | LO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos | 83.62 | 42 | 115 |
| Tanner Bibee | 99.54 | 70 | 130 |
| Luis Garcia Jr. | 118.19 | 78 | 147 |
| Heliot Ramos | 155.95 | 116 | 202 |
| Michael Toglia | 158.54 | 87 | 214 |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 164.95 | 114 | 205 |
| Alec Burleson | 178.27 | 87 | 235 |
| Maikel Garcia | 178.97 | 63 | 238 |
| Masyn Winn | 179.78 | 139 | 267 |
| Victor Robles | 192.49 | 124 | 239 |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 196.92 | 137 | 259 |
| Parker Meadows | 220.03 | 114 | 300 |
| JJ Bleday | 228.27 | 151 | 263 |
| Lars Nootbaar | 245.19 | 189 | 300 |
| Connor Norby | 248.59 | 163 | 300 |
| Cody Bradford | 292.51 | 229 | 300 |
Mark Vientos is the most…awoken of Grey’s sleepers. I get it, the power is alluring, I just haven’t nabbed Vientos anywhere. I’ve been taking the Austin Riley or punt for Paredes option at third in most drafts. On the pitching side, Tanner Bibee is getting the most hype. Some of these pick differentials are wild. You aren’t really getting any value taking a guy 100 spots ahead of ADP, but you do you. I just feel like you have to play the ADP game a bit. Sometimes you get burned, but most times you get a player for a better draft price.
Meadows and Bradford are getting tanked by preseason injuries, a real shame. They are now going undrafted most places. I haven’t let Lars Nootbaar go undrafted in any of my leagues, and neither should you. That’s easy money right there.
RECENT TRENDS
Here’s a look at some changes in ADP from the start of draft season until now. Early Draft Season vs. Mid-Late March Draft Season.
| PLAYER | ADP (2/24-3/16) | ADP (3/17-3/24) | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Romano | 219.86 | 186.38 | 33.48 |
| Carlos Estevez | 213.05 | 180.75 | 32.3 |
| Tommy Edman | 203.38 | 172.75 | 30.63 |
| Kenley Jansen | 208.43 | 178.38 | 30.05 |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 193.05 | 166.5 | 26.55 |
| Trevor Megill | 167.33 | 143.19 | 24.15 |
| Luis Rengifo | 187.71 | 165.06 | 22.65 |
| Alec Burleson | 187.67 | 165.94 | 21.73 |
| Taylor Ward | 171.76 | 154.31 | 17.45 |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 204.14 | 187.44 | 16.71 |
| Alexis Diaz | 156.05 | 183.06 | -27.01 |
| Bryson Stott | 154.05 | 185.88 | -31.83 |
| Parker Meadows | 205.19 | 239.5 | -34.31 |
| Michael Busch | 230.38 | 265.25 | -34.87 |
| George Kirby | 88.14 | 124.81 | -36.67 |
| Zach Neto | 194.43 | 232.25 | -37.82 |
| Spencer Steer | 118.19 | 175.31 | -57.12 |
| Jared Jones | 139.38 | 198.88 | -59.49 |
| Royce Lewis | 127.57 | 205.69 | -78.12 |
| Gerrit Cole | 164.14 | 283.81 | -119.67 |
I love that you can always tell when the legacy leagues and the high LCI leagues that are full of RCL sharks start drafting and the closers start flying up the draft boards. Why, you ask? These high LCI leagues are leagues where every relief pitcher who can sniff a save is rostered and those who aren’t get scooped up in nanoseconds when news breaks. That makes all closers more valuable and in leagues like ECFBL you won’t find one on the board after the 12th round or so. Plus, in inning cap leagues, those closers with high K/9 are where the money is.
Edman is probably getting a little Tokyo boost. Mountcastle and Burleson could just be from the leagues I’ve drafted!
Going the other way is a tale of injury woes and Michael Busch and Bryson Stott for some reason.
That’s a wrap! Happy final drafts and may your closers all survive the next two days.
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