RazzTable: Hamate-urabi’s Code

Welcome back to the RazzTable. A place where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful fantasy minds instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. Or at least minds with only moderate cognitive distortions. We’ll put those brains to mediocre use, debating curated takes from select ADP ranges. We’ll be starting at the start, since that’s the best place to start. We’re talking ADPs 1-25 here, so generally rounds one and two of standard roto leagues. Joining me this week are Jorge Montanez (@Roto_Nino) and MarmosDad.

Q1. With the Mitt Reaper making his springtime rounds and collecting Hamate bones, who do you see jumping into the first round that wasn’t previously?

Jorge: I can see Gunnar Henderson regularly moving into the first round after he was a top-ten pick a year ago. While he didn’t provide the power numbers that were expected, he still hit for a good average and stole 30 bases, showing the talent to return value in multiple ways. With his shoulder issue reportedly behind him, a power return with the speed could have him right back near the top of drafts next season.

MarmosDad: My gut feeling is it’ll push someone like Kyle Tucker (17) up into the back end of that first round because of the similar skill set and the new digs. If people were bent on drafting an OF in Round 1, he checks that box too. A couple of “maybe” guys would be Gunnar Henderson (15) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (27). For Gunnar, maybe he pushes up a few into that Top 12, but I’m surprised he’s as high as he is now, let alone any higher. I guess a lot of folks thought last year’s rough ride was a one-off. With PCA, I know a lot of folks are split pretty hard with him. The naysayers are saying it loudly, and the fans are happy to get him around pick 30. Some managers might reach for him because of the power/speed combo but I don’t think many are silly enough to make him a Top 12 pick.

My take: Right off the bat, we have a dust-up, and I didn’t even have to manufacture it! I think Jorge is correct that Gunnar is the most likely to rise. He’s a familiar name with solid projections at a premium position. Every year, there’s a guy who gave us a bumpy ride that manages to stay high because not everyone bought a ticket. I also like the Kyle Tucker call. He’s another name that we’ve seen in the late first and will have drafters comfortable with that familiarity.

Q2. We continue the debate of our fantasy stat forebears: power or speed, and which specialist are you happiest with in the range?

Jorge: The way steals have spiked since the pickoff rules were implemented has made speed a category you can target throughout the draft. And power hitters that set themselves apart in the category, while not killing you in others, are becoming more valuable. I’ll gladly take a Kyle Schwarber and make up steals down the road.

MarmosDad: If you’d asked me this days ago, I would’ve said Corbin Carroll, but the injury likely pushes him down enough that it prices him out of this range. For me, it’s Shohei as the 1/1 over Judge in any of my drafts if I’m lucky enough to land the top pick. Outside of that, I’d take a long look at snagging Jazz in that 22 spot. 2B and 3B eligibility in a solid offensive lineup? Two years of 450+ ABs to help shed some of those durability questions? Possible 40/40 season if everything clicks? Yep. That’s enough upside to counterweight the negatives for me, but even more so if I take a big power bat with my first round selection. He checks a lot of boxes in a late second or early third round pick.

My take: Another uninstagated faceoff? My guests understood the assignment. I have to side with Jorge on power being the path if you go early specialist. Guys like Schwarbs and Pete Alonso get you ahead in an important category. Rabbits can be found to run in later rounds. We don’t write a piece at Razzball.com called SAGNOF for nothin’.

Q3. Toss up: if you want to go first base early, are you taking Vladamir Gureero Jr. or Nick Kurtz?

Jorge: Between Kurtz and Guerrero, it comes down to whether you’re more comfortable finding batting average or power and what you want to start your build with: a power advantage or a great batting average. I’ll take the safety and track record of Guerrero.

MarmosDad: Oh no! For the record, I accepted Roto-Wan’s invitation to the round table with zero knowledge that he’d throw this nasty slider at me. Ooh baby. One I had as a $0 keeper in an AL-Only league as a franchise guy last season, and the other is the literal franchise guy for my hometown squad that pushed the Dodgers to Game 7 of the World Series. Ouch.

Ok, here goes. The easiest answer for me is to wait to see which guy goes first and take the other one. Honestly, I love both players so much that I’d be happy with either, but that’s a bit of a fence sitting cop out (moderator’s note: it would be). If it’s a redraft league, and our roster sizes are normal, I’m taking Vlad over Big Amish by a margin as thin as a beard hair. Vlad is about as steady as it gets and is heading into that magical age 26 season. I’m a firm believer in the peak hitter years being 26-28, so in a one-off season, I’m taking the experience and potential for a career year over the kid if I’m forced to choose. In a keeper league, it’s a lot tougher to justify, and I’d likely go, Kurtz, if I could. I have a $41 Vlad in a home auction mixed league, and a friend with a $10 Kurtz would likely auto-reject a one-for-one offer there.

My take: Consensus! We all say Vlad is the slight favorite. None of us is willing to write off Kurtz, however. Play your brand of fantasy baseball here and decide if you want steady-Eddy or the young gun upside.

Hammurabi’s code says an eye for an eye. We need to dish out some redress. By my count, which does go to three despite rumors to the contrary, Jorge takes this one. He gets to make MarmosDad sit in the kennel while replaying World Series Game 7. We’ll be back next week with ADP 26-50.